<i> B.) Will Ming learn to bang eventually? Did Rik Smits become a banger </i> No, but Ric Smits would be a top 5 center in the NBA today. Ric Smits with passing skills helps the Rockets alot more than Lamar Odom and Borchardt. </i> The draft has other centers other than Ming. Borchardt plays like Raef with more toughness and should be there at 8. Wilcox could be there at 8-he has Ratliff's size with more muscle and better athleticism. Hilario has all the tools to be a perfect complement to Griff- 6'11'', 264 lbs., and a 7'4'' 3/4 wingspan and should be at 8. Stoudemire will be there at 8. </i> If we reach the point where Borchardt is our starting center, then we've got no chance. Here's another guy with a checkered medical background. If you believe that Ratliff's injuries were due to his size, then why would you suggest drafting a guy of the same size at #8? Wilcox is athletic but what does he really do that well? He doesn't have much offense, most of his 12ppg came off putbacks and dunks. He's a decent rebounder at 7.5 per game and he's a decent shot blocker at 1.5 per game. He's also very streaky, he'd play really well one game and then disappear the next. He was great against Gooden and Kansas and then pretty average vs. Indiana's big guys. Reminds me alot of Kelvin Cato at Iowa St, he played well in a couple of NCAA games and everybody saw his potential. Hillario is very raw. Were you on the OO bandwagon too? Stoudamire is nothing more than an athlete right now. He's years away from playing and needs to develop tons of skills. Did you see the report that Orlando's glowing comments were just a smoke screen? Supposedly he go lit up by Ryan Humphries and Stoudamire had to stop the workout early because he couldn't catch his breath. There's a real good chance that Stoudamire is there at #15. </i> By the same token any of these guys may not become great defenders-why is it assumed Ming will become a great defender? Isn't that considered his greatest weakness? Worse than Wang? </i> Because Yao has much better physical tools to help him be a good defender. Anybody 7'5" that can walk and chew gum (that disqualifies Chuck Nevitt) is going to alter the game defensively. As much of a stiff as Bol and Muresan were, they still altered the game defensively. Even Ric Smits forced opponents to change their shots. With Yao, I think it's more of a case of him not being use to the contact, rather than not being able to handle it. He's never had the opponent drop a shoulder into him and not get called for a foul. That doesn't mean he can't learn to adapt to it. Better yet, how about he learns to use his weight to gain an advantage for himself?
HP, Its becoming a lot more clear where our difference of opinion lies. I agree that the offense will be effective with Ming, but I also feel overall it will be excellent with Odom. The key difference is that you assume defensively that Ming-Griffin can get it done in the playoffs. I dont think it can. Thats my biggest bone of contention in this thread. Ming and Griffin will be a great shotblocking tandem, but there is a whole lot more to low post defense esp in the playoffs. I go back to the question once again, how can you be so sure that Ming wont give up deep post position to the top notch frontcourt players we will face in the playoffs? I dont think Ming and Griffin will cut it defensively in the playoffs. Can you prove to me that it will? Also, youve been harping on the fact that Steve Francis cant run a fast break. How do you propose to remedy that problem w/o getting a point forward to run things? Aelliott, Bottom line, this team doesnt have a true low post threat and will not have it with Ming. There is still a huge question as to whether or not Ming can establish low post position against NBA players. He showed difficulties doing this against Cristofferson in Chicago and against the Dream Team even though it was a limited sample size due to his foul troubles. Just like I'd like HP to convince me that a Ming-Griffin frontcourt can cut it defensively against the elite playoff level frontcourts, I'd like for you to convince me that Ming can get low post position. I still feel our post up hopes are tied to Eddie Griffin and think he can deliver on them considering he has been working hard in the weight room. One last point, since there is so much question as to where exactly Odom will help us, let me re-cap the areas. Fast Break - Steve Francis simply has not been effective in this area; I think Odom will be very effective handling in the middle of the break with Francis and Mobley running the wings. Offensively - Odom will free up Francis and Mobley do other things besides having to constantly handle the ball and try to create something. The contention has been made that this is just how Francis and Mobley play, live with it. Explain to me what the 3 guard offense is all about? Is it not Moochie that handles the ball in these instances? Imagine instead a 6-10 point forward with good court vision and decision making in this role instead of Moochie. Also, I still think Odom will help in terms of team defense, but we'll have to agree to disagree on that point.
Ming and Griffin can't provide low post defense in the playoffs but Griffin and Odom can? Do you think players we pick with the #8 and/or #12 wont give up deep post position to the top notch frontcourt players we will face in the playoffs? I know this question wasnt posted for me but. By causing turnovers, getting rebounds and getting quick outlet passes by Ming. Passing is suposed to be one of Mings strenghts. If we trade #1 for Odom, #8 and #12 where do you sugests we get a player who can establish low post position against NBA players.
Originally posted by MManal: Its becoming a lot more clear where our difference of opinion lies. [...] The key difference is that you assume defensively that Ming-Griffin can get it done in the playoffs. I dont think it can. [...] Can you prove to me that it will? Of course he can't. We're talking about draftees here. So you can't prove that Hilario (e.g.) will get it done, either. You're quick to say, get the established 3 and grab a banger with the 8 pick, but if you're looking for an inside player, any player you get at 8 is going to be even less of a sure thing than Ming. Bottom line, this team doesnt have a true low post threat and will not have it with Ming. From what I've heard, Ming has excellent post skills. But it will take a while before he can establish himself inside againt stronger defenders. So what? You can say the same thing about Stoudemire and Hilario, other than the "excellent post skills" part. As I see it, the real differences of opinion are this: 1. Odom is the only, or at least the best, option at the 3. We could deal for another 3, like Rashard Lewis, or draft one, like Butler, Dunleavy, Gooden, Woods, Tskitishvili, Nachbar, or Jeffries. You could argue that of those, the only true 3 we could hope for at 15 is Nachbar, but the point is, 3s are easier to come by than 5s. Who knows? We could find Woods there at 15. And even if none of them is, we still have Rice and Morris, who will be at least serviceable. Ideal, no. Serviceable, yes. And that's when we don't have Mobley at the 3 in a small lineup. 2. Odom will cost us the #1 pick. Maybe, maybe not. From what I've heard, LA will take less than he's worth for him. Here's a deal that works salary wise. I'll bet we could sweeten it up a bit with future draft picks and get Odom without losing the #1: Terence Morris (3.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.9 apg in 16.3 minutes), Jason Collier (4.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.4 apg in 14.6 minutes), and Moochie Norris (8.1 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.9 apg in 27.4 minutes) for Lamar Odom (13.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 5.9 apg in 34.5 minutes) and Sean Rooks (3.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 0.4 apg in 11.9 minutes). Rooks would take Willis' place as enforcer/veteran, Odom takes over the starting 3, Rice backs him up as designated shooter against zones, and for a backup PG we use Brown or draft someone at 15. LA gets a PG and replaces Odom and Rooks in the draft with (say) Tskitishvili and Hilario. It could happen. I wouldn't mind this lineup: C: Ming/Cato/Rooks PF: Griffin/Thomas/Taylor SF: Odom/Rice SG: Mobley/Torres PG: Francis/Dickau Other scenarios: Minnesota seems to want to move Szcerbiak and needs a PG as Brandon insurance, and Seattle may be willing to move Lewis if it thinks he won't resign. All ways to alleviate the SF slot and draft Ming.
Well if a Ming/Griffin frountcourt can't hold up defensivly why not just trade Griffin for someone that would compliment Ming (obviously assuming Ming becomes an offensive star) ... While Griffin might become a nice player there are lots of PFs out there but almost no centers ... I would be very suprised if Huston doesn't pick Ming ... the potential of a 7'5 center with an offensive game will be very hard to pass on ... that said it will be interesting to see how he works out defensivly ... sure he'll probably block tons of shots but will he: Become a good rebounder? ... quite a few very tall guys are awful rebounders ... and lets face it it appears he didn't do very well on rebounding in the recent games against New Zealand ... Will he be pushed around by NBA centers? sure he weighs some 300 pound but balance is way more important then weight ... Sure there are other concerns too ... will a 7'5 body hold up too 100+ games/year? foultrouble etc. ... but thats not the point ... IF he works out he will be unique ... the potential reward is way to great for Huston not giving him a shoot ...
thx for continuing the discussion MManal. and remember my email monday about draftsource.net. thx. Then we sit Griffin down for Cato. What froncourt players are you talking about backing up Ming? What offenses use a center? imo, you are really trying to ask whether Griffin will be able to stop "deep post position," because he hasn't yet. Your concerns are more about Griffin, and that exists with both lineups. However, Ming can help Griffin cover PFs tremendously, as well as help Francis stop getting burned. Imagine a 1-3-1/Matchup with Ming roaming the freethrow line and Griffin behind him, or vice versa. Your concerns about Ming giving up deep post are limited to a few teams versus the concerns you should have regarding Griffin giving up deep post. Of those teams that Ming gives up deep post, with Odom instead, I presume we'd have to play Cato 40 minutes...well, that hurts your offense. I agree. This is why your offense has the nod on being better, at least for now. admit it MM, the only reason you even believe the Odom lineup can improve our defense into a top 10 one (much less a championship one) is because you expect to land the #8 at 12 in that trade.
Why not just Jay Williams if we want a point guard I think Francis and Cuttino have to improve their games rather than look to bring in Odom to cover their weakness It seems bring in Odom is saying Steve will never be a true PG . . so let's have two SGs and a Pt Fwd and IMO a three guard line up works best with a BIG front line I think the thing with bringing in Odom that folx ASSUME is that the offense will change? I like Rudy .. I have faith in Rudy but .. I KNOW RUDY knows how to use a CENTER Rudying using a 'Pt Forward' .. . . not so sure on that Rocket River
Scottie Pippen. He handled the ball plenty, just couldn't pick his spots. If the offense doesn't change, does that mean Ming will score 90% of the time on alley-oops, like Cato?
Since Francis led the team in defensive rebounds, I think it is safe to say the Rockets fast break problems are based on the fact that their front court are rebound challenged.
This logic is not worth printing NIKE, as I can turn it around and say, "If the offense doesn't change, does that mean Odom will be spotting up for 3s like Shandon?" Your logic is unfair, because you presume Odom will bring a change to the team. If you want to talk about who is likely to bring new plays with him, it is the 7'5 man who can pass and shoot...guaranteed. I believe that it is more likely that Odom falls into an ambigous role while Francis keeps trying to wave off picks and takes his man. I say this, because the simpler offense is the one with Ming, not Odom. Most all your fascination with Odom is based on is an improved fastbreak and a complicated set offense with inspired, instinctive bball flow with really only one skilled playmaker ala Kidd. The rest of your fascination is dreamcaster where you actually want to believe that the #8 and #12 will be offered with Odom for Jason Williams. as aelliott says, that deal for a PG is without precedence.
heypartner-That's the point. I was turning it around on R. River. Just like it can be turned again in circles like Steve Francis is only a spot up shooter, because that's all Matt Maloney and Brent Price were. Saying the offense wouldn't change with Odom because when Shandon was SF, he couldn't dribble or pass is exactly like saying Ming is just going to get under 5 FGA attempts a game, 4 of which will be alley-oops, and the last may be a cut to the basket, because that's what Cato did. It's not a logical argument to suggest that an offense will stay the same when you influx a premium player, like Odom or Ming, given reasonable time. Pippen's situation was strange given the lockout and the shortened season. If you're asking if I would trade the #1 for Odom, no I wouldn't. It could be different if Odom had stayed healthy, and didn't have these problems he actually could be worth it but that's going down a long hypothetical road. His value is on its downside, probably the lowest it'll ever be. The thing that attracts me to Odom is that a large part of the reason our fast break sucks, is because our two guards, Francis and Mobley, both go straight to the wings like magnets...neither wants to, nor is comfortable being the one taking it up the court. Odom IS comfortable taking it up the court. We can argue for days and nights over what is being offered, and honestly, neither one of us will probably ever know unless a deal actually happens. What the reports have said, is that the Clippers starting offer, about a month away from the draft, consists of Odom, #8, and Maggette for Rice/#1. Could the Rockets bargain up to replace Maggette with #12, or get both? Perhaps. Could the reports be completely inaccurate? Perhaps. I don't think precedence really applies when it comes to these rookies, because of the new CBA. We're just finishing up the first cycle of the new rookie contracts, and GMs are still getting a feel for the whole rookie contract scale. Who was the last "sure thing" PG like Jay Williams? Francis was drafted a lot on potential, and there were questions. Baron had the injury issues. I guess you could go back to Mike Bibby? This has been a great thread for discussion that doesn't consist of "Ming is the next Shawn Bradley" or "Pick Ming because he's awesome". I am not against picking Ming, I just wouldn't pass on primo talent like Odom, and 2 lotto picks (or Odom, a top 10 pick, and Corey Maggette) and getting out of a big empty contract like Rice for Ming.
HP, Im having a hard time understanding something.... Last summer you were very pro 3 guard lineup and felt that would work just fine assuming we had a big body inside. How is an excellent ball handling forward like Odom alongside Francis and Mobley that much of a different concept? I just dont understand how someone that was very pro 3 guard lineup with Mooch, Francis and Mobley is now turning around and saying Odom, Francis and Mobley would not work and cause all kinds of ambiguities? Is it b/c you are so blinded by Yao Ming and you will say anything at all costs to try and prove your point? It appears to be the same idea to me except only better b/c Mobley doesnt have to guard SFs that he gives up a good bit in height to. Of all the point forwards in the game, Odom is easily the best in terms of creating plays and making decisions; he isnt the scorer that some of the others are, but we dont need that at this time. Also, I find this funny how you are trying to completely twist the argument and make it appear to be Odom vs No 1. The whole premise was that we would add Odom and get the bangers with the additional picks. As Nike pointed out, we have no idea what is being discussed or not, but in no way did I say I would do Odom straight up for No 1. Obviously, getting a good banger or two inside that wont give up defensive position is the key for the defense to work. This is something a Griffin-Ming frontline wont do. I am not at all enamored by the fact that Griffin and Ming will block a lot of shots b/c that isnt going to cut it due to their other deficiences that I cited. The Dallas trio of LaFrentz, Nowitzki and Bradley off the bench also blocks a lot of shots, where does that get them? The concept of planting a good pair of shotblockers in the middle of the defense is fine, but we are talking about building a playoff steady defense. In the playoffs, teams will post up a lot against you esp in critcial junctures and if your PF and C are collectively giving up great shots and getting manhandled inside, the end result isnt good. This whole concept of benching or trading Griffin so that the frontline wont be manhandled on defense makes no sense to me. Do you think for a minute that Griffin can fetch as much in a trade as this No 1 overall pick can? The hype surrounding this thing is crazy; if you get offered this kind of package from the Clippers, you have to take it.
MManal, I actually addressed this in my last post, but it got too long, and I deleted that part. I do understand that you whole topic is about Odom and dreamcasting for Yao, but I'd just like to keep the dreamcasting out of it, since I would rather hear you take on Wilcox. I emailed you once about him and Gooden. I really cannot follow your scenario until you give me your take on Wilcox. You are correct. I am pro 3 guards. I love that offense, because it is perfect for Stevie. What you are not following is that I am pro many things. However, I do not EVER criticize a coach for one of my pro-fave-offenses because I have talked to enough of them to know that they have to deal with things that they don't like. So I do, too. Another thing I don't do is criticize a team for not doing something that I know is required to win a title, if that team doesn't have the skills. Why bash a team because they don't have the skills. Instead, you just buy tickets and enjoy the show. What I know wins a title in the NBA is defense. You canNOT win without it. So, when we are talking about the #1, expect me to say some things that you may never have heard me emphasize before. We need a center to help Griffin become a better defender without sacrificing the power of the perimeter scoring. Odom improves our scoring, but he does nothing to help us stop being the worst defensive frontcourt in the NBA.
Be fair now. I didn't say bench Griffin. I said that the very few teams that manhandle Ming and Griffin in the middle can be dealt with by giving Cato 30 mins those games. We are talking about like 2 or 3 teams in the entire NBA that will mismatch Ming. By contrast, we are talking about 15-20 teams that can manhandle Griffin right now, and will ... and completely within their current offensive strategy. Mismatching Ming involves nearly every team going outside of the offensive strategy except for the very few who actually use their center a lot.
"What I know wins a title in the NBA is defense. You canNOT win without it. So, when we are talking about the #1, expect me to say some things that you may never have heard me emphasize before. We need a center to help Griffin become a better defender without sacrificing the power of the perimeter scoring. Odom improves our scoring, but he does nothing to help us stop being the worst defensive frontcourt in the NBA." The concept that defense wins championships and a good interior big man is key to winning big are central tenets of basketball. I agree with these 100%. However, I dont view Ming in the same light as the dominant big men in the NBA, and I just dont think he answers all these questions we are looking for. I actually believe that route #2 (Odom and picks) answers these a whole lot better. My big question with Ming is whether or not he can hold position defensively and cause NBA big men to move outside their comfort zone. The premise that Ming can help out Griffin would mean that Ming coming over from the weakside and blocking shots would make a big difference for Griffin. I dont see this as the case. Let me give you an example. Lets say on a given night, Antonio McDyess, Elton Brand, Rasheed Wallace, Tim Duncan, Chris Webber etc is completely dominating Griffin in the low post. Lets suppose they are getting great position and great looks b/c Eddie isnt able to move them off the low block and out of their comfort zones. I dont see how Ming is going to help him. Surely Ming isnt going to be able to prevent these guys from getting great position on the block and his weakside shot blocking isnt going to make a huge difference here. The way to remedy this situation is have a tough, hard nosed frontcourt guy (which I think we can get at 8 and/or 12) that will be able to switch with Griffin and slow these guys down. Obviously any rookie will require an adjustment, but its not going to take someone like Wilcox 3-4 yrs before he can start slowing these guys down some.
I think its fair to say everyone has their perceptions of what a ggod big man is and how effective he can be. I'm one of the few who like Odom as well as Ming. Different players bring different things to the table. All the people that down talk the impact Odom either just don't like the guy or haven't seen enough of him. He is one of the most physically gifted players in the league, period. His talents extend past those of anyone on the rockets roster including Francis. He's not a freak of nature, just one of those guys that went from being a good little man, to hitting a growth spurt a being a 6'10 pg. 1 bad yr doesn't mean that he's injury prone or doesn't fit or any of that. I think he could help this team make it in the playoffs, i just don't like the cost at which to get him. I also think Ming will be a good player,very good player. It hasn't been a player come along that big and skillful in a long time. Its not the simple fact that he's big, but he's atheletic, seasoned in pro, not high school or college competition , and has gotten better every yr. He feels a need for this team offensively and defensively for this team. I think he can not only help us get to the playoffs next yr, but in the coming yrs be serious title contenders. Posters can imagine any scenerio with whom they please, but to imagine this guy in 2 or 3yrs on this team , your imagination can run wild. All those people who say trade the pick to whomever is really not understanding how hard it is to get the number 1 pick in the lotto. Think, this team has never won the lottery!Never. The lotto started in 1985 after allegeations of "tanking" by the Rockets. Since its inception, only a couple of teams have won it more than once. The Magic and the Clippers, thats it,period. This is a chance in a franchise to pick the player you feel is best to help your franchise. You don't have to take someone else pick,player or trash. The rockets are the head cheese and they know how important it is to keep this pick. Whats even worse is the posters on this board want the Rockets to deal with a conference opponet which is the biggest no-no in sports. Look at the scenerio and the Rockets trade for Odom and give up their pick and get the 8 and the 12th. Say the Clippers say f..k Kandi and take Ming. 4 times a yrthe Rockets will have to face this guy. Even right now without the player your trading for, the clippers have beaten you 3 out of 4 the past 2yrs. So now you have Odom, who on the earth in the rockets uniform can check ming? Even worse, what if he continues to improve at his current rate along side Elton? Now you have trouble. Its just not a matter of trading for an established,because you could be making a chief opponet much better than your team. I'm just not with that. Work out the kinks,draft ming and go forward. Just my thoughts.
Originally posted by MManal The concept that defense wins championships and a good interior big man is key to winning big are central tenets of basketball. I agree with these 100%. However, I dont view Ming in the same light as the dominant big men in the NBA, and I just dont think he answers all these questions we are looking for. I actually believe that route #2 (Odom and picks) answers these a whole lot better. I think I adequately addressed the flaws in your argument already, but here's some more: Yao Ming is the only "A" center in the draft. The others are -- at best -- "B" level centers. They might be better than what we could get via free agency or trades, but they might not (based on what we know prior to the draft). Yao Ming is clearly better than anything we could hope to get via trade or free agency. It's also unclear that we could come up with the banger you want at the #8 or #12. Chris Marcus is out of the draft and that makes Hilario, Borschardt, and Yao that much more valuable. All three may be gone by #8, leaving us to choose a promising but undeveloped 4 like Wilcox. He's a top flight prospect, but not much better developed than Griffin. Whom do you propose as our #8 if Yao, Hilario, Borshardt, and maybe even Wilcox, go in the top 7? Because that's a strong possibility.
what ricealum said. MManal, you are also not addressing my comments regarding Wilcox's offense hurting the perimeter game. And since when does Ming have to come from the weakside to help. Zones allow you to front and back the strongside, just like the Kings did. in summary: Ming provides more balance to improve both defense/offense. Odom does not improve the defense like Ming does, and Wilcox will take 3-4 yrs to help the offense (if he ever can). I do not subscribe to the theory that adding 2 players (one offense, one defense) is balance, like adding 1 player who effects both is. imo, a zone of Griffin/Ming also allows us to us a SF like Horry to improve that defense even more, without having to scour the league for playmaking ability on offense at the SF spot. By contrast, I do not like a 3 guard offense with a frontcourt player who can't shoot. I don't believe that offense can win. I don't believe we can win with Cato, so Wilcox does not really excite me much. So with Odom and the #8, I still think we are back to banking too much on Griffin changing the offense...not to mention banking on Wilcox being available at the #8, and panning out.
