Ming, Draft Scenarios, etc.

Excellent posts MManal and NikeSTRAD

DaDakota---Do you know people in the Rockets organization personally? How do you know Cato hasn't been working out? Mo had worked out with the team a little last season and he has been going to Westside this summer. I know he is a little out of shape, but don't jump to conclusions about how he'll be by preseason. At the end of last summer, he had been playing alot and working on his game until he had bad luck and got injured. You don't know how Mo or Cato will be. (Mo might be gone if this 3way goes through anyway)

Live--It looks like all our veterans will be gone(Willis...who else?)

 

You don't need to know anybody to say Cato has not been working out this summer. History tells us that.

 

Me, I'm all for Lamar Odom.

I'd see what we can get at the other draft spots, as far as solid low-post players. We would also have the pieces to facilitate another trade.

Now, as far as the low-post player, do we grab a Nené Hilario for mostly-defense, or do we see if "someone like" Brand (offense and rebounds both) can be had for Eddie and some of the draft picks (assuming we make the Lamar deal)?

 

tozai,

What I meant by veterans are the core returning players, Steve, Cat, KT, EG, etc.

The team improves when they decide to improve their approach to team issues. Otherwise, they're just another collection of talented underachievers, even if they make the playoffs.

 

hp brings up a very significant point. IMHO, there is a high probability that only Stoudamire will be there at 8.

I have read recently that Dunleavy changes his mind daily about going to the NBA. If he goes back to school, roll up one player between 3 and 8.

Wilcox and Gooden will very likely not survive Memphis, Denver and Cleveland... especially with Dunleavy gone.

Borchardt is the most likely pick for the Knicks at #7. He is considering returning to Stanford. His return to college means Hilario should be very high on the Knicks list.

It could be Stoudamire by default. I would be less worried with Hilario, but he is not a guaranteed to be there at #8. And the deal will have been made prior to us seeing who is available.

PS - MManal - good thread and thanks for hanging in there even though you probably don't really have the time to post.

 

Here's my take on an Odom accquisition:

I don't think that many people are arguing that Odom isn't a skilled or unique player. I just believe that his skills aren't neccessarily a good fit for the Rockets. If I look at what I perceive as the Rocket's biggest weaknesses (poor shooters, poor defense, no low post offense), I don't see Odom making a considerable difference in improving those things.

Defensively, Odom will add about one extra blocked shot per game, but overall he's not a good defender, so our defense doesn't improve. Is he a better defender than Rice or Williams? Does it matter? He's still not a good defender, so the fact that he's not as bad as Rice isn't too much of a selling point for me.

Offensively, he's not a good shooter, so he would just give us one more guy shooting .430 to .440 percent. He's never been a consistent post up threat, so we still don't have an inside scorer that we can goto for a high percentage shot.

Odom is a very good ball handler and passer for a small forward. But, why would we run the offense through him? While his passing and ball handling skills are great for a SF, then aren't exceptional for a point guard. If we're not satisifed with
Francis running the offense, then why would we run
things through a guy with an even worse assist to
turnover ratio? Freeing up Mobley and Francis to do
things without the ball is a nice idea, but that's
simply not the way those guys play. They don't move
well without the ball, they don't use screens well
and they aren't catch and shoot guys.

Odom is skilled enough that obviously, he'd be an
asset to any team. I just don't see where we would be
that much better with Odom. To me adding Odom doesn't
cause opposing teams to change their defense from the
way they played us last year. We're still a perimeter
oriented team with poor shooters. If you were
coaching against the Rockets, wouldn't you just
collapse people into the middle to take away the
driving lanes and then dare us to beat you with
outside shots? That's what teams did to us last year
and I don't see how Odom is going to prevent that
next year.

To me, for Odom to really help us here, then there's
too many things that have to happen. Francis and
Mobley, would have to change the way that they play.
Griffen or the #8 pick would have to develop a
consistent low post game. Defensive improvement would
have to come from primarily the 4 and 5 spots
(Mobley, Francis and Odom are never going to be good
defenders). Somebody would have to step up and be
able to consistently hit an outside shot. Any of
those things could happen, but I'm inclined to
believe that the possibility of all of them happening
is pretty slim.

Couple this with the uncertainty of Odom's contract
and with his inmaturity and I'm not willing to give
up a potential franchise center for him.

The way I look at this offseason is that we've got
some glaring weaknesses and we've got a chance to
fill those needs. Realistically, those additions are
going to come at the center and small forward
positions. If we bring in Odom as the small forward,
then that leaves the bulk of those improvements to come from the center position. Finding a center to provide those things,
better than Yao is very unlikely. How many of those
guys are there in the league? On the other hand, if
we take Yao, then we still have the opportunity to
get a quality SF at #15 (Nachbar or Jefferies). It's
too hard to find centers and we'll still be able to
get a good SF at #15.To me, that's a much better
scenario. That way we upgrade 2 positions and have
the opportunity to fill more of our holes. Otherwise,
we upgrade SF and Cato is still the starting center.


Before I'll jump on the Odom bandwagon, I'd have to be convinced that the additon of Odom addressed several of our outstanding needs.

 

Would somebody tell me who exactly it is that will be pushing around Ming besides Shaq. Ming is 21 and already 300 lbs. He's at that age were the body stops growing up and starts filling out. In the next 2 or 3 years he will most likely add another 20 to 30 lbs and thats a low estimate IMO. I'm to lazy to do the math but I bet the average weight for centers in the NBA is around 250 to 260 lbs.

Mutombo isn't exactly built like Arnold Swatzenager (7'2" 265 lbs) but he doesn't seem to get pushed around very much. Ming already has 30 lbs on him and once again is only 21. I'm not saying he wont get pushed around a little bit at first but I think its way over exaggerated on this board. If we are patient and give him a year or two, I don’t think anyone excluding Shaq will be pushing him around.

 

Possum,

another way to look at is is to ask how many teams really have offenses that use the center much. Not many!! How often will teams change their offense to attack Ming?

For instance, Tony Battie and Marcus Camby can be overpowered by Mutombo and Ben Wallace, but Boston and NY would be perfectly happy if you went away from Iverson and Stackhouse in an attempt to prove that point.

Point is: This is a PF league (and to a lesser extent, a SG league), not a Center league. Griffin is the one we should be worrying about beefing up. He needs to hold the stud PFs who shoot 20-25 times a game in the playoffs. I could care less if Larry Brown decided to attack Ming with Mutombo, or Popovich went away from the Duncan/Griffin match-up to see what the Admiral could do against the Chinamen.

 

Damn you!!! All of you.



I've been trying to make up my mind for two weeks and because of all of you I'm confused and conflicted.

But here it is. I don't want to trade. I want Ming and whatever else we can scrounge out of the draft or free agency.

You must dare to be great and trading for the safe bet is a losers game. Take the risk and the reward is so much sweeter.

So this is. I'm in for Ming.

 

My sentiments exactly. There just aren’t that many good centers in the NBA anymore. Show me a center prospect with size that has more potential to be dominant in 3 years than Ming.

Curry? I doubt it, he Just doesn’t have a whole lot of basketball skills IMO. He seems to be more of a Shaq type player without the size. He is still young and growing though.

Kandi? Can you say overrated? He is pretty much matured already and Ming already has 5" and 25 lbs on him.

I can't even think of anyone else to list here.

If you have a true center (not the 4/5 kind found in the east) with skills, you will have a huge advantage most every night. There’s no way to know how good Mings skills are rite now but if he lives up to half his potential LOOKOUT!

I haven’t even mentioned that he is a perfect fit for RT's system. Remember Raef Lafrentz the guy most people here wanted so badly because he fit RT's system so well? Well IMO ming brings every thing to the table Raef does rite now. Throw in the added bonus of 7 inches and 50+ lbs.

Ming doesn't have to become a great defender to help our interior defense. His presence alone should help. Look at Bradley, (I know he sucks) when he is in the game he makes so many players change their shot. We will have one of the best young shot blockers in the NBA (EG) standing behind him just waiting to send those shots into the 5th row. If we do draft Ming I predict EG will one of the top 3 shot blockers in the league. IMO you couldn't ask for a better fit with the Rockets that Ming.

 

aelliott, heypartner et al,

Since the contract and character issues surrounding Odom are too daunting for some, is there some ideal trade scenario for the #1 that you feel the Rockets shouldn't turn down?

Scenario:
<i>
If the Rockets were able to get a player such as Butler or Dunleavy (instead of Odom) plus the #8 & #12 and #20 for the #1 + #15, would that be satifactory?</i>

A future pick instead of so many in 2002?

Feel free to move the pick numbers around to find a threshhold that becomes accpetable to trade for. It is possible that some will not accept any trade for the #1 and I can also understand that sentiment.


Mango

 

<i>My whole argument here is that neither is a true PG so you need someone to help them create plays. We have hashed over and over that the fast break is horrid; I think Odom will help a lot in that area. The way our offense operates just is not nearly as effective as it was pre-zone. Our offensive efficiency was a joke last yr, we shot something like .426 from the field. In addition, we shot a whole lot of 3s per game. The Rockets need to really start getting easier baskets and improve their offensive efficiency. </i>

I don't disagree that neither Francis or Mobley are true point guards, but I guess I differ in that I don't see where adding another guy that isn't a true PG is going to solve our problems. Having a third ballhandler would be a nice luxury, but we've got several other fundamental problems that need to be addressed first. We could add John Stockton to our team, but if we can't hit an open shot and can't get any easy shots inside, then we're going to have trouble and our point guard isn't going to have many assists.

I also agree that our offense has trouble with the new zone rules, but as I said previously, I don't see Odom changing that. We definitely need to get easier baskets and that's exactly why we need a consistent post up player or at least somebody to spread the floor instead of Odom. Why would teams play us any differently with Odom than they did last year? They're still going to pack it in and make us shoot from the outside, so how does Odom keep them from doing that? He's not a post up player, he won't have a post up player to pass the ball to and he's not a good outside shooter. So other than going one on one or passing the ball on the perimeter (which is what we did last year), what is he going to do?

As far as defense, I'll have to disagree on Odom being a good defender (even a team defender).

Hilario or Wilcox are no guarentee to develop into "rock solid" defender inside. Additionally, even if either one of those guys could eventually play center somewhere down the road, we still end up with no postup game and that's not good. I just don't envision a Griffin, Wilcox, Odom front line striking fear into the hearts of opponents defensively.

 

<i>aelliott, heypartner et al,

Since the contract and character issues surrounding Odom are too daunting for some, is there some ideal trade scenario for the #1 that you feel that the Rockets shouldn't turn down?

Scenario:

If the Rockets were able to get a player such as Butler or Dunleavy (instead of Odom) plus the #8 & #12 and #20 for the #1 + #15, would that be satifactory?

A future pick instead of so many in 2002?

Feel free to move the pick numbers around to find a threshhold that becomes accpetable to trade for. It is possible that some will not accept any trade for the #1 and I can also understand that sentiment.

</i>

Mango,

I've written several long "unibomber-like" rambling posts on my feelings on trading the pick. It's got to be a sure fire deal that is guarenteed to make us a contender immediately. Do I think that anybody is going to offer us such a deal? No, I don't. Yao has too much potential upside. I'm not looking to hedge my risks on Yao, his upside is too good and an opportunity like this comes along every 15 years or so. If you want me to trade you #1, then you have to compensate me for Yao's potential. His potential is that of a franchise center, so if you want that pick (regardless of who you want to select with it), then you have to compensate me for a franchise center.

As far as the picks, I'm not too interested. We've got too many young players as it is. I don't want to add 4 or 5 more over the next couple of years. It's time for us to grow up, not keep getting younger. To me, solely getting draft picks it too risky. No matter who you pick, it's a risk (that includes Jay Williams). Plus, if you have too many young guys, too close in age, then you end up in a Clipperesque situation where you have 2 or 3 guys coming off of rookie scale deals, several years in a row. That makes if very difficult to keep those players together. Lastly, there's too much uncertainty in most those picks. After the top 5 or so, there's usually a drop in talent. That means at #8 on down, you pretty much have to take the best player available, not neccessarily the one that fits your needs.

If I was offered a trade like the wild-ass one that I used as an example in another thread, where we get McDyess, Ratliff and Posey and only give up #1, Taylor, KT and Rice (I might have had Moochie in that deal too), then I'd do it. But realistically, we're not going to be offered anything close to that. Truthfully, I seriously doubt that the Clips would trade Odom, #8 and #12 for Jay Williams.

 

MM,

I used the Webber hand-off as a current example. That is not the UCLA cut, but it was good for illustration. The UCLA cut is Walton in the high post using SF and guards running around him to separate himself from his defender. If his defender sticks to him, Walton is tall enough to drop passes for back doors for guards that are using him for a pick...or he can hand off to them as they are headed to the basket. If Walton's defender backs off him to delay the cutting guards, then Walton has his separation and turns and shoots. Very simple. It is so simple and basic that Carlesimo ran Ming through that drill in Chicago.

I understand that MoT can run that play. And I have seen it in preseasons. But, that play is contingent on backdoor cuts. The whole reason for the high post plays like this is to expose the basket. You can't really do this when someone like Cato is on the floor, thus the reason we've never really brought this out of preseason.

So, the obvious answer to that is put Cato on the bench. Well then, what does that do to your horrid defense. MoT and Griffin on the frontline is NOT getting it done in the playoffs. LaFrentz and Nitwitz couldn't get it done.

Taking Ming can instantly put Cato on the bench. That very fact makes us a much better offensive team with or without Odom, and gives us so much more flexibility, all we'd need is a consistent SF at that point. Any offense that includes Odom and Cato is going to allow defenses to cheat. And any defense of the Rockets with Odom that involves sitting Cato down is very suspect. Wilcox, Hilario and Amare are all very, very raw, especially on offense. How long before any of them is better than Cato on defense? How long before any of them is better than Ratliff on defense? How about Ratliff on offense? How long before Griffin stops being pushed around?

Big men take a long time to develop, especially when they have no low post NBA skills. You take Odom; you will be waiting a long time to fill out that front court. You take Ming, and you might have an instant UCLA cut play to add to your offense, and you take pressure off Griffin to play defense against the stud power forwards.

 

Guys cutting and curling off-screens for Odom to hit? What offense have you been watching? The team doesn't do that as is, adding another ballahndling passer isn't going to make them start. Otherwise, I understand what you are saying with the play breaking down. However, the fact that they would have 3 excellent players who all do the same thing should be what worries you. It is why our offense bogs down so much already. Play doesn't work...kick it out to a guard and let him do something. The Rockets know it, their fans know, and other teams know it, so they just try and disrupt a play for the first 15 seconds of the shot clock and then sag into the interior thereafter, making your "clutch" 4th quarter shots become tough hand in the face jumpers, or drives to the lane where passing lanes condense too quickly and someone shots a wild layup or jumps in the air to pass. Ming, if descriptions of his talent are accurate, on the other hand, would give us a completely different option. Now, when plays break down we have three options instead of one: let the guards create for themselves, let the guards drive and dish to steadyhanded bigman (Ming - granted Cato did this on the alleyoop play he developed with Steve but other than that there were still far too many fumbled passes), and third, let Ming post up.

That's great and all, but where do you get those players. They are a rare commodity in this league. Even with Odom on the team, you still need those players. Ming gets you close to that, and he will learn to bang eventually. In the meantime, his height and athleticism more than makes up for any lack of physical strength you may think he has. He will never be Ben Wallace, but again, who is? The way I see it, you have a better chance today filling any SF need than you do filling interior presence.

At that current weight and height, Ming already has the strength, imo, to be physical down low. Again, he already has a verys olid base, something as important, if not more so, in defensive positioning. His upper body may look a little weak, but the man is a giant. His looking a "little" weak is probably stronger than many players currently in the league. Of course, wieght doesn't work this way, but he already has more pounds per inch of height than many players at his position. Weight wise, I think he is fine actually, although a few more pounds int eh upper body wouldn't hurt. But if he was on my team, I would not be willing to give up some of his athleticism at that height if it meant strenuous wieght training. Ming will become an interior player once he learns how to, and given his work ethic, this shouldn't take too long. Nonetheless, even if he was a "weakling", this still doesnt proclude him from being a strong interior player. The healthy and very good defender Theo Ratfliff is only 6'10, 230 pounds. Heck, at 7'2, Mutombo is only listed at 265. It isn't really how much you weigh or how strong you are (Mourning, on the other hand, is listed at 6'10 but only wieghs 4 pounds less than Dikembe at 261), as much as it is about how much desire you have to be that interior demon (ala Ben Wallace).

 

A.) healthy and Theo Ratliff in the same sentence? I think some of Theo Ratliff's health problems can be attributed to his being undersized.

B.) Will Ming learn to bang eventually? Did Rik Smits become a banger?

The draft has other centers other than Ming. Borchardt plays like Raef with more toughness and should be there at 8. Wilcox could be there at 8-he has Ratliff's size with more muscle and better athleticism. Hilario has all the tools to be a perfect complement to Griff- 6'11'', 264 lbs., and a 7'4'' 3/4 wingspan and should be at 8. Stoudemire will be there at 8.

By the same token any of these guys may not become great defenders-why is it assumed Ming will become a great defender? Isn't that considered his greatest weakness? Worse than Wang?

 

Wasn't Ratliff's injury hip-related? What does that have to do with upper body? Ming seems to have a very very solid base.

I completely agree. Ming won't definitely be great at anything. But there is no sure thing in the draft, no sure banger as is. So if you trade for Odom, you essentially get what Odom has proven in the NBA and players who have even more risks than Ming. I'd love to have Odom on this team - lord knows we need a capable SF - but he hasn't proven he can help imporve a team defensively at all to me, and as far as his skill package offensively, I think Ming already shoots better, passes just as well, and will have many more offensive rebounding opportunities. The only thing he lacks is ballhandling, and I have no idea with all the dribbling we do why people think we need another ballhandler.

 

HP-
Excellent. I wanted to state that on numerous occasions in this thread but decided to use the post with the biggest bang per word.