Ming, Draft Scenarios, etc.

I don't disagree on Odom's skills. But, to me, he is still not as good a player as Nowitski...Mobley and Finley are comparable, Francis and Nash are comparable, LaFrentz seriously outplays Cato, Van Exel outplays Moochie, KT and Griffin give us something, but the Mavs have Najera,Bradley, Wang (not great players but it allows them to go deep into their bench). And, we'd have nothing that would make us a better defensive team than the Mavs, which would mean we might be able to getinto the secound round and lose.

Personally, I think Ming is much more ready than you do. If he was only 7 feet and played in college he'd be without a doubt talent wise the number 1 pick for us. Because he is taller, and becuase he has some other foreign issues to deal with, people also start questioning his talent. The guy is very filled out for his size - look at the picture thread by windandsea - and has a very strong base. Already, he passes, rebounds and shoots better than Lamar Odom. The only question is can he bang down low? I don't know about that, but I do know, as DaDakota has pointed out, he is an enormously hard worker and likes to have his weaknesses pointed out so he can improve upon them. In the last game he played against New Zealand (yes, its New Zealand, but they did have a couple 7 footers on the front line), he made it a point to take his play down low and did all his scoring from there (and FT's). But even if he turns out to be softer than hoped (like a Smits or like some claim Webber is), so what. He will still rack in 10 boards a game, he will still be an excellent passer, he will still be able to score with 10-15 foot jumpers and bankshots. He should still be a 14/10/3 block player. Some say you don't take that with the first pick. Of course you don't. But given that he is just as likely to become a 25/15/4 block player, and still fills a need on your team at his worst (imo), you take him.

 

This thread seems like a good spot to add my Ming concerns and get some comment.

Saying we draft Ming, by the time he gets to Houston he will have played a what, a 40 game international season. How well can he be expected to hold up for the 90-100 game NBA season? (preseason and playoffs)

He will have no time to focus on weight training while playing competivlely for China. He will have very little time to actually work with the Rockets to develop how he will affect the offensive or defensive strategy, and, these conditions may last throughout his entire 4 year contract .

And that is to say nothing of team chemistry. It appears that our prima donna players prefer complimentary players rather than a new star sharing the limelight.

If the chioce were on skills alone it's a no brainer. But with all the extra baggage we need to at least consider the alternatives.

GP

 

Gene,

I agree, but what about Francis? He will be out all summer, Mo T still has not worked out with the team, and Cato NEVER works out in the summer.

At least Ming IS playing this summer.

I have zero concerns about Ming, he is tall and skilled, and that does not come along very often.

DaDakota

 

MManal,

There is one logistical problem with the Odom plus #8/12 trade for the #1 that no one has mentioned to date. In that trade, the Clippers would demand we pick Jay Williams, right? Now, I find that really hard to do before we now who is available at 8 and 12. If the Clippers actually wanted Ming, this trade would be safer, because we could cancel it if our #8 player is not on the board and still have Ming in pocket. I'm not so sure we want to risk that trade when maybe there are only a few people we want at #8, and risk that they are still on the board. Are Wilcox, Amare, and Hilario really equal in terms of fitting a system built aroud two guards and Odom?

In your post, you said that the Rockets need a high post passer. I agree. Did you notice how successful Webber/Bibby are when Webber has the ball and Bibby runs around him for hand offs? With Ming, I believe this can be devastating. To me, if Ming shows up with passing and a sure fire 15-18'er, as Cuttino said, "It's over." With Odom, I think we'd still be running something based in a 4 out 1 structure. I think Francis/Mobley really need that offense. The improvement of any 4 out 1 (and not to say it can't win, although it can't when coupled with our defense...lol) is all about the improvement on the weakside and taking bad shooters off the court (Cato/TMo/Shandon/etc), and it is about getting a better 1 of the 4 out 1. I think with Odom, we are still at the mercy of Griffin becoming an strong scoring player, and one of the #8 or #12 being a strong defender without hurting our scoring. I don't see Odom getting us over the hump, without everyone else (including the #8) improving to their potential. That's a risk.

I do think it is an intriguing trade. But I'm not so sure I'd take a Wilcox and hope he learns to shoot. I think with the 4 out 1, we will need defenders/rebounders who the opposition must still respect on offense. Someone like a well-rounded Divac-type player sure would be nice. Odom does not improve our defense, so with Cato and Wilcox/Hilario/Amare if they have limited offensive fundamentals, exactly how much does he improve our offense??? It just doesn't sound like a risk-free maneuver. Then again, maybe Francis does explode and Odom gets the defense off Mobley's ass, the fastbreak falls into place, and Griffin starts tossing stud PFs around and the #8 becomes a well-rounded workhorse low post player, that shores up our defense without hurting the offense.

With Ming, I believe we can actually change our entire makeup by employing elements of high post systems, starting with the UCLA Cut. These are very simple, and basic, and should really help free up the guards. But the beauty of Ming is that with him, you will be able to add workhorse role players who you can procure with humble stuff like the MCE or #20 picks. With Odom, we still need to nail a well-rounded big man with the #8, and we need Griffin to hit his potential. Griffin is simply being tossed around in the low block, and I have much more worries about him guarded PFs than I do Ming guarding centers. Ming gives Griffin help. Odom doesn't.

The Odom trade certainly will not happen until we see who is left at the #8. And at that point, it is too late, because LA would require us to pick Jay, no?

 

MManal, you are wrong about Ming. I am not saying he can bang with Shaq; in fact if that was the plan, it would fail. Ming can score and would occupy Shaq on defense or hurt him if he leaves, which Vlade did sometimes and Pollard could not do. The Kings used Webber to double Shaq without the ball and left Horry and Fisher for open 3's. You just cannot give Shaq endless high % shots without being able to counter with 5's who can score. Bottomline is that our 5's (to be, maybe) are better than that of the Kings, and that is where championships are lost or won. Any trades must result in a set of 5's that are better, collectively, than Ming, Cato and Collier. It does not take much for us to address our SF problem.

 

HP,

Well said, but what if the Clippers are really after Ming?



DaDakota

 

HP, just the thought of Ming doing those things is enough to take him.

 

If the Rockets draft Ming:

Improved? More than likely, Ming's size alone gives the Rockets a presence they haven't had in a while. Add that with the return of 2 valuable members of the rotation, and the Rockets would be hard-pressed to not be improved.

Playoff-bound? Well, that depends on the VETERANS, not the rookies (or players) they bring in. Regardless of what the Rockets do from a personnel standpoint, unless they improve and address their weaknesses from a TEAM STANDPOINT, whatever move they make is moot.

Their offensive and defensive short-comings have been discussed ad naseum on this BBS, but the only way to improve in these areas is to address them as a team.

For example, the Celtics made tremendous strides this past season because they improved their collective approach to defense and rebounding. Individually, the Celtics are rather weak defensively, but their coaching staff made some fantastic adjustments to their philosophies, as well as a commitment from THE TEAM to play better defense and rebound better.

 

Here's an odd question. Does Ming have to be a 5? We are all concerned with him being able to muscle down low but his offensive skills seem to more like a 4 or 3. Couldn't you put him on the floor with banger/rebounder at the 5. The guy wouldn't even really need any scoring skills since he would be the 5th option. (#1 Steve, #2 Ming , #3 Cat, #4 Grif ,whew that's a lot of firepower with Mo and Rice off the bench).
Maybe even a guy like Haslip at #15 or a trade to get Christofferson around the 30.

Just a thought.
GP

 

He is 300 pounds, not at all small.

Pau Gasol, KG, Camby, all thin guys who excel at the NBA level.

However, Ming is only 21 years old, and is already 300 pounds and growing.

Once he finishes filling out, he will probably be around 340 or so, and that is as big as Shaq.

Ming is a highly skilled big man, IMHO, we can not afford to pass him up.

Odoms are a dime a dozen.....Mings are a once in a generation player.

DaDakota

 

Gene Peterson,

IMHO (and novice medical opinion), playing Ming at 4, i.e. playing him out on the floor, would put more of a strain on his knees and back.

That's why the last 'giant' the Rockets had, Ralph Sampson, had inury problems, playing PF put too much pressure on his joints.

The 5, even at the high-post, is more of a stationary position, he wouldn't be asked to make the sharp change-of-direction movements that PFs make.

I wonder if some of our residents doctors could shed a little light on this thought.

 

MM,

Are you not equally worried that Griffin will never be able to muscle with stud PFs (he is getting tossed around)?

I don't mean to say Odom can't change the offense, but I think his immediate impact is about the fastbreak more than the set offense, not as a slight to him, but more about my concerns for Francis and Mobley having the requisite understanding of weakside timing and giving others picks to really pull off successful last minute curl plays. I also have no confidence in Cato helping contribute much in the way of picks. Can Wilcox, Amare and Hilario, do that? KT, Mo and Griffin seem pretty solid at it, though. Saying Mobley can come around a double pick, to me, is not all that better than just letting Mobley create at the high elbow on his own. Those plays eat up a lot of time just getting set up. Odom would have to inspire basketball flow, not set plays, for us to get out of the 1st round, unless everyone hits their potential (as I mentioned in previous post).

There is a tendency to assume set plays are the answer to everything. Like these weakside plays are easy to execute, especially when you have a player who knows how to pass at the right time. It really takes a lot more full team coordination, especially in the last second. There are subtle things that often go wrong in these plays. More complicated plays bust more often. How long does it take us to perfect the timing required of them? Is Odom really on the level of Kidd to create basketball based on flow rather than set plays? Are our other players capable of the intricate dance of setting picks back and forth for each other in purposeful timing without busting a play by moving to the wrong spot leaving Odom to wave them off.

With Ming, those high-post hand off player are much easier to execute, especially in the last minute. It is as simple and devastating as a PnR. Francis either gets the hand-off, or Ming's man commits to stop it, so Ming gains separation and just turns and shoots a 15 footer.

Is Odom a goto player? In the last minute, is Odom threatening to score if you overplay the weakside curl patterns more effective than the UCLA Cut if Ming is able to turn and fire if they overplay it.

You say Ming will take 3-4 years to develop and you aren't ready to wait. I say a more complicated offense built around Odom will take equal time to gel against top-notch 4th quarter playoff defenses.

 

I fully agree with MManal that there is no way Stoud, Hilario, and Wilcox are all off the board at 8. I think at least 2 of them will be there-possibly all 3.

You want a well-rounded big man that can shoot, rebound, and block shots? Curtis Borchardt. There's a fairly strong possibility he'll be at 12.

Odom is a HUGE upgrade defensively over Walt or Glen Rice. He's a very good help shot blocker-I think Griffin can become a defensive force type player, especially if you surround him by a guy like Odom who can disrupt things with his physical skills, and any of the center prospects we've mentioned at either 8 AND 12. We CAN come out of this draft with Odom, and TWO guys between Wilcox, Stoudemire, Borchardt, Hilario.

I think adding a playmaker like Odom, means more open opportunities under the basket for your bit players like Cato. He's such a gifted passer-his assists have gone up every year, and his turnovers have stayed relatively the same. He doesn't look just for his shot- for his career, he averages 16+ points on under 14 FGA a game.

I don't think people realize how young Odom is-he's younger than McGrady, and less than a year older than Caron Butler.

Also, don't forget Maggette either-he's scored 10+ ppg as primarily a bench player the past 2 seasons, and is a very good man defender.

 

Live and Dada, I agree with you. MManal, if we need a banger, let's get a banger. There are quite a few available. By the way, Espn Insider seem to think that Stoudamire's stock is rising to the point, I think, he would be gone by #15.

 

I finally got windandsea's pics to download.....
Ming can hang in low with anybody!

Now it's just the fact that a foriegn goverment will dictate where and when he will be available to the Rockets that bothers me. We will need somebody like Colin Powell to negotiate the contract and even then I wouldn't trust those duplicitous bastards.
GP

 

I never disagreed with that. I just think that one or two of those could be bad picks if you commit to building a team around Odom and 2 guards. You must NAIL that #8 pick, otherwise you are banking way too much on Griffin. You make it sound like all 3 of those guys are interchangeable, without risk. Do you think you'd believe that after heavily scouting them with intensive workouts?

I doubt they are equal on the board. One is the best. You'd want to limit your risk by making sure your favorite one is available. Just saying, "Oh, we'll get one of them," is not a way to treat committing so early on draft day to the whims of other GMs. For instance, there is a good chance Wilcox and Hilario are off the board. Now you are "stuck" with a HS player and 3-5 yrs of development with Odom and a CRAPPY defense.

Ming could help everyone play defense. Odom can't.

I agree with a lot of what you and MManal are saying. I'm just trying to sum up all the risks.

The risk of Odom is the risk of banking a lot on offense being better than defense, and banking a lot on Griffin and the #8 creating a defense worthy of high-caliber NBA playoffs. Dallas's defense is just not going to cut it, and our offense would be doing great to play as well as them with Odom. How long will our defense take to improve and Odom's offense take to perfect???

 

Carpe Ming