MIN Not Moving on HOU’s Offer (Marquese Chriss and Brandon Knight and 4 First Round Picks for JB)

That was helpful. I appreciate that. I don't think I fully appreciated the value of the first rounders, particularly in that they give Minny flexibility to trade their own first rounders. Ok, you're speaking to me... But the fact that Houston is always looking to improve and seems always in win-now, would make me think there is a real possibility that the 23/25 could also be high. (We will begin to prepare for Harden's departure; I don't see the dark ages rolling in when he leaves).

Your analysis helps me more easily now see the strength of the the picks, (however uncertain they are), because I can compare them with the fact that JB is leaving Minny and the Wolves face the real chance of getting nothing for him. Let me ask you this though: wouldn't it be more shrewd of Minny to let the offer sit until February? I think Houston's offer is likely to remain on the table, and they could get better offers in the meantime. And even if they revert back to the Houston offer in February, chances are that Houston--without Butler--will only be a middle-of-the-pack team (or worse) until then. Heck, the 2019 pick might look like it will be a lower pick come February, which will work to Minny's advantage.

 

Jimmy Butler is one year rental.
4 1st pick? No.
I am happy they declined.

 

There is no way in hell pat Riley is giving up a bunch of picks. They already offered Richardson and a first though and Minny turned it down. They don’t want 4 firsts. This leads me to believe thibs doesn’t want a deal at all. He thinks it will all work itself out if butler stays long enough. With how competitive the West is, I’m not sure Minny gets in the playoffs even if they keep butler, especially with how bad KAT is playing. I guess we will see though.

 

@heypartner TY for this! I am snickering and laughing as I walk through the office hallway and everybody is trying to figure out what I am laughing about

 

Hey, at least give me credit, as he did!

 

What Jimmy Butler can do to a game....

 

Right . It does , but it also takes two to tango.

A lot can happen in between now and the trade deadline that could make us change our offer , a lot could happen in minny that could torpedo their return . In no particular order I'll list some things that could go wrong.

A. Butler gets hurt , no deal
B. One of the rockets big 3 gets hurt , no deal (we won't be willing to risk 4 firsts because our odds this year are way worse)
C. Houston continues to struggle , our 2019 pick has more value and we chop off one of the other pics .
D. Knight starts playing well , now he has real value
E. the rockets gel and are playing great ... do we really wanna mix it up and try to integrate another player ?

Meanwhile , this whole time MIN is going to be dealing with a disgruntled player who is actively pissing off your franchise player .

Come the trade deadline we have some leverage as well ..." oh you don't like our offer ... ok let butler walk for nothing "

MIN has the most to lose by playing this hardball because if they don't get a deal done they lose him for nothing . If houston doesn't make a trade then our championship odds aren't as good . But we still have our core and we have all of our first rounders to make trades with .

I think the 31st is a big day .

Short of Boston or philly offering one of their young studs ... and a pick , you aren't going to get a better offer .

 

I don't consider Boston in this Butler race in the slightest. They stay the course or go after AD.

Miami and Philly would be the other teams. Philly has assets, but they might be concerned how Butler would mesh with Simmons/Embiid considering Butler now with KAT/Wiggins.

Butler on a VET team makes more sense.

 

Shams is a sham. Woj forever!

 

Trade negotiations through the media. Where each media guy has an ear on each team.

 

Taylor will be dead by 2025 and Thibs will be nearly 70..... they don't give a damn about 2025.

 

That's the risk of our taking our deal, but I think it is well worth the risk if I were Minni. Currently, the Rockets are all in on playing for a championship. In the next few years, our players will more than likely not have a ton of value. Chris and James are making a lot of money and they will likely not bring the Rockets any good young players back in a trade. Maybe James would bring you someone good back when he is 31, but it's unlikely that it will be anyone that will provide a boost to this franchise. As fans, we have to face that we will likely be looking at a rebuild in 3 more years or so. We are not going to trade Paul or James right now. Capela is here to stay. Eric Gordon is not going to bring us back a ton of value. The other players will definitely not yield any great talent.

Bottom line, we will have some years of mediocrity for the very least where we are picking late in the lotto. If I'm Minni, I evaluate the situation and look at the Rockets roster and realize that they don't have a ton of assets to make moves for a superstar in the next few years. They definitely won't have the assets to trade for a top draft pick. So right now they are at their peak and very likely to decline in the next few years.

I'm actually not a huge fan of the deal since we are mortgaging our future, but at the same time I know that our opportunity window is not going to be any longer than 2 years. The way this season has started, things already look shaky and I'm nervous.

 

Rockets also want the deal done very soon if it is going to happen. MDA is going to want time to mix Butler into the chemistry of the team.

The public release of the offer also will put pressure on the Wolves to make a move quicker because Butler isn't going to be happy hearing of large offers and yet he is still in Minnesota.

 

The problem with this line of thinking is that our 25' pick has value well before 25'

If the twolves want a legit shot to win the title in the next couple of years then guess what ... tough **** . Because it ain't happening .

 

They don't, but it is a liquid asset that can be moved at any time for something now. They don't have to wait around for it.

 

PRECISELY what I was alluding to in other posts. If Wolves owner Taylor had a "good faith deal" with Butler that they would be SERIOUS to trade him, getting this SERIOUS offer out in the public puts the Wolves/Taylor "on notice."

 

Excellent analysis. Let me chew on it.

 

I dun see the unhappiness on Jimmy's part, Jimmy gets paid to either play or sit his ass.

He gets to walk next year and sign wherever he wants if nothing happens. Who can say this about their day job?

It's us fans who are more anxious.