Military brass doubt fighting will cure Iraq Alternative: Bring rebels into politics Monday, June 13, 2005 BY TOM LASSETER KRT NEWS SERVICE BAGHDAD -- A growing number of senior American military officers in Iraq have concluded that there is no long-term military solution to an insurgency that has killed thousands of Iraqis and taken a heavy toll on U.S. troops during the past two years. Instead, officers say, the only way to end the guerrilla war is through Iraqi politics -- an arena that so far has been crippled by divisions between Shi'a Muslims, whose coalition dominated the January elections, and Sunni Muslims, who are a minority in Iraq but form the base of support for the insurgency. "I think the more accurate way to approach this right now is to concede that ... this insurgency is not going to be settled, the terrorists and the terrorism in Iraq is not going to be settled, through military options or military operations," Brig. Gen. Donald Alston, the chief U.S. military spokesman in Iraq, said last week, in a comment that echoes what other senior officers say. "It's going to be settled in the political process." Gen. George W. Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, expressed similar sentiments, calling the military's efforts "the Pillsbury Doughboy idea" -- pressing the insurgency in one area only causes it to rise elsewhere. "Like in Baghdad," Casey said during an interview with two newspaper reporters, including one from Knight Ridder, last week. "We push in Baghdad -- they're down to about less than a car bomb a day in Baghdad over the last week -- but in north-center (Iraq) ... they've gone up," he said. "The political process will be the decisive element." The recognition that a military solution is not in the offing has led U.S. and Iraqi officials to signal they are willing to negotiate with insurgent groups, or their intermediaries. "It has evolved in the course of normal business," said a senior U.S. diplomatic official in Baghdad, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of U.S. policy to defer to the Iraqi government on Iraqi political matters. "We have now encountered people who at least claim to have some form of a relationship with the insurgency." The message is markedly different from previous statements by U.S. officials who spoke of quashing the insurgency by rounding up or killing "dead enders" loyal to former dictator Saddam Hussein. As recently as two weeks ago, in a Memorial Day interview on CNN's "Larry King Live," Vice President Dick Cheney said he believed the insurgency was in its "last throes." But the violence has continued unabated, even though 44 of the 55 Iraqis portrayed in the military's famous "deck of cards" have been killed or captured, including Saddam. Lt. Col. Frederick P. Wellman, who works with the task force overseeing the training of Iraqi security troops, said the insurgency doesn't seem to be running out of new recruits, a dynamic fueled by tribal members seeking revenge for relatives killed in fighting. "We can't kill them all," Wellman said. "When I kill one I create three." American officials had hoped that January's national elections would blunt the insurgency by giving the population hope for their political future. But so far, the political process has not in any meaningful way included Iraq's Sunni Muslim population. Most of Iraq's Sunnis Muslims, motivated either by fear or boycott, did not vote, and they hold a scant 17 seats in the 275-member parliament. The former Iraqi minister of electricity, Ayham al-Samarie, has said he's consulted with U.S. diplomatic officials about his negotiations with two major insurgent groups to form a political front of sorts. There has been similar talk in the past -- notably by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's administration, which spoke of inclusion through amnesty -- but nothing has come of it. At the heart of the problem is the continued failure of U.S. and Iraqi officials to bring the nation's Sunni minority, with more than five million people, to the political table. Sunnis now find themselves in a country ruled by the Shi'a and Kurdish political parties once brutally oppressed by Saddam, a Sunni. With Shi'as and Kurds stocking the nation's security forces with members of their militias, Sunnis have been marginalized and, according to some analysts in Iraq, have become more willing to join armed groups. Since September of last year, some 85 percent of the violence in Iraq has taken place in just four of Iraq's 18 provinces: the Sunni heartland of al Anbar, Baghdad, Ninevah and Salah al Din. U.S. officials prefer not to talk about the situation along religious lines, but they acknowledge that one of the key obstacles to resolving Iraq's problems is the difference between Sunni and Shi'a religious institutions. Unless Sunnis develop confidence that the government will represent them, few here see the insurgency fading. Asked about the success in suppressing the insurgency in Baghdad recently -- the result of a series of large-scale raids that targeted primarily Sunni neighborhoods -- Brig. Gen. Alston said that he expects the results to be short lived. "We have taken down factories, major cells, we have made good progress in (stopping) the production of (car bombs) in Baghdad," Alston said. "Now, do I think that there will be more (bombs) in Baghdad? Yes, I do." http://www.nj.com/printer/printer.ssf?/base/news-1/1118638276289660.xml&coll=1
"We can't kill them all," Wellman said. "When I kill one I create three." I guess it's good that the military has finally begun to understand this - however it's too bad that it took thousands and thousands of dead bodies to figure it out, especially when the possibility of this phenomenon was warned about repeatedly, before the war, over and over and over again. And through it all as the body count mounted, Rumsfeld and Cheney told us repeatedly that the end was imminent, over and over and over again. Sad.
That's why, ladies and gents, everyone should know their history, because if they read it, they would've known, without going to war, that home-bred insurgencies CANNOT be defeated, not now, not ten years from now. Didn't Bush get a "C" in history while attending Yale? I guess it came back to bite him and his fellow college-dropout Cheney in the ass. KNOW YOUR HISTORY PEOPLE!
The military turned the country in a new direction, now we have to get them some american ****, let them accumulate some american stuff, and they'll be fine. People just need to accumulate some kind of wealth to be satisfied in life.
If that suceeds while their oil fields are still under half capacity for the next 8 years, then we should copy whatever welfare state we created at that time and port it over here. Who said Republicans aren't generous? In other countries, at least.
My impression is that one of the things that they've been working for is to bring the Iraqi insurgents into the fold, so to speak. It's been reported sporadically in the news for the past year that the interem Iraqi government has been open to including some of these insurgent sects into the new government. However, the big problem, as I see it, is all the Muslims who come into Iraq simply for the revenge factor. Most of the bombings recently have been against Iraqis with no clear political goals. It's as if Al Quaeda is stirring up trouble for the sake of it.
This can go both ways. NPR has reported that the new govt. of Iraq has made contact and is close to deals with some of the insurgent groups which would greatly help end the problems there. But much of the violence, even against Iraqis comes from other Iraqis.
U.S., Iraq Consider Amnesty for Insurgents U.S. and Iraqi officials are considering difficult-to-swallow ideas — including amnesties for their enemies — as they look for ways to end the country's rampant insurgency and isolate extremists wanting to start a civil war. Negotiations have just begun between U.S. and Iraqi officials on drafting an amnesty policy, which would reach out to Iraqi militants fighting U.S. forces, say officials in both the Iraqi and American governments. But foreign extremists like Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, responsible for Iraq's bloodiest attacks, would not be offered any amnesty, the Iraqi and U.S. authorities told The Associated Press in recent days. The amnesty proposal is seen as a key weapon to split the insurgency between Iraqi and non-Iraqi lines and further alienate foreign fighters like al-Zarqawi. Iraq's minister for national security said Sunday an amnesty policy is being drawn up, but he said insurgent groups first must do more to convince authorities they are serious about making peace. "Those who had committed homicides and caused blood shedding for the innocents will be excluded from this amnesty," said the minister, Abdul Karim al-Inizi. "Talking about issuing an amnesty soon is premature as this depends on whether the insurgents want to take a step forward." Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Barry Venable said the Iraqi government has raised the amnesty issue and "we look forward to working closely with the Iraqi government as this idea develops." "Any successful counterinsurgency strategy requires the U.S. and Iraqi authorities to do everything possible to split the insurgency and persuade as many Sunni elements as possible to join the peaceful political process," said Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who says he has been involved in informal talks. "This does not mean blanket amnesty," he said. It could, however, mean negotiations that lead to "pardoning or ignoring the actions of movements and opposition elements that supported the insurgency when this was done out of nationalism, fear," Cordesman said. The Pentagon is helping formulate an amnesty policy, but officials stressed on condition of anonymity that the work is being carried out in response to requests by Iraqi authorities, who are desperate to be seen as leading the process. "These (amnesty) discussions are in their early stages. Any kind of amnesty program would have to be driven by the Iraqi government, not the U.S. government," a U.S. defense official said on condition of anonymity, citing security and political concerns. But he added that the American government "hopes people who took part in crimes against Iraqi, U.S. or coalition personnel or civilians would face justice." The middle men are influential leaders from the once-powerful Sunni Arab minority, whose ranks have spawned the bulk of Iraq's anti-U.S. insurgents. Sunnis enjoyed the patronage of Saddam Hussein, a secular Sunni himself, but lost out after his fall. Some Sunni leaders have said they have been meeting with associates of anti-U.S. militant groups to try to persuade them to lay down their arms. Exactly who any amnesty would apply to remains unclear, but the U.S. and Iraqi governments say they have begun drawing up such a policy to curb the stream of suicide bombings, assassinations and kidnappings. The issue is politically charged with the potential to enrage many Iraqis and Americans. "I think eventually we will probably talk with people who have killed Americans," said Kenneth Katzman, an expert on the Persian Gulf region with the U.S. Congressional Research Service. "We may not see anybody at the table who has killed U.S. soldiers but we will see groups represented who have killed Americans." The diplomatic efforts are being driven by a growing realization that military force alone can't end the insurgency. Iraqi officials say "many" homegrown militant groups opposed to the U.S.-led occupation want to join the post-Saddam political process now a sovereign Iraqi government is in place. But the government says it won't negotiate with al-Zarqawi and other jihadists using Iraq as a battleground to wage holy war. Iraqi authorities reinstated capital punishment after the June 28 handover of sovereignty from the U.S.-led occupation authorities. Several convicted murderers responsible for beheading Iraqi policemen were sentenced to death last month. During the past two weeks, leaders from Iraq's Sunni and Shiite communities announced they have been meeting with insurgent groups to try get them to lay down their arms. "Over the past six months, we have been in touch with people representing about 80 percent of the Iraqi resistance in different parts of the country, who are asking how can we guarantee anything positive from the other side," said legislator Salih al-Mutlak, leader of a Sunni Arab umbrella group. Al-Mutlak said his group, the National Dialogue Council, has been a go-between for U.S., British and Iraqi officials on one side and Iraqi insurgents on the other. Al-Mutlak said Iraqi insurgents have demands of their own: They want guarantees that attacks against Sunni cities will stop; that thousands of detainees will be released from U.S.-run prisons; and — most importantly — that the U.S.-led occupation will end. "They want to reach an agreement, but would like to see evidence that the other side is really positive," al-Mutlak said. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050614/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_talking_to_the_enemy
How are John Kerry's grades from Yale treating you? How about you know your history ehh? Oh wait, those are college grades from over 30 years ago... so who gives a flying rats ass? Obviously you do to make such a weak comment on a serious subject. What's next? Gonna go with the "Liar, Liar Pants On Fire" routine?
The history will be the judge of this war. If Republicans can still claim this is a justfied war 30 years from now, then non of the remarks by Democrats today will matter. On the other hand, Republicans will face the consequence of a fail war for a long long time if it turns out this is Vietnam part II.
This is the best and last defense of the war by the GOP. "We will see in 30 years if it was wothwhile." Don't be hasty to judge. Unfortunately not good enough for the families who have kids of enlistment age, as we are now seeing. Who wants to be the last to die in Iraq?
Baloney. There are individuals, both Republican and Democrat, that still claim the Vietnam War was justified.
Someone I know, her son, in the military, just lost his hand in car bomb earlier today. But he is still alive at last report.
