Midterms

It may more difficult for O'Connell to win then Castle (I think she will), but the reason the Republicans fell out of favor was supporting RINOs such as Castle, McCain, and Bohner.

The voter enthusiasm on the Republican side is crazy. 60,000 votes in a Delaware primary is incredible. This is the theme across the country, so it doesn't matter so much who the Republican candidate is for election purposes.

 

This result and the Paladino election tell me something different entirely. This is telling me that the GOP enthusiasm gap is restricted only to tea partiers - their candidates are consistently outperforming their polling, from Alaska to Delaware to New York (and maybe New Hampshire). The non-tea-party GOPers don't seem to be showing up at the polls at nearly the same pace.

What this means, I'm not sure. But if likely voter models are assuming that ALL GOPers are coming out in those numbers, they might be misreading this election. It may be that the (relatively) moderate GOPers don't get the turnout expected; and the crazy tea party GOPers might not get the other GOP vote. Or it could all mean nothing - we'll know for sure in November, but this gives me pause. At the very least, tonight's results switch Delaware to a likely Dem. They might do the same with New Hampshire. And Murkowski is mulling a write-in campaign (probably out of spite - she hates the tea partiers) which might put Alaska in play.

If I'm right about the overpolling, it might mean Kentucky's more in play and Reid has more of a lead in Nevada. On the flipside, it might help a Marco Rubio in Florida if Crist's turnout from moderate GOPers is lower than projected. All in all, these results are fascinating. But not quite enough to come up with a solid theory yet.

 

Except when the national party comes out after she wins and says they are not going to support the candidate. And only something like 25% of the state thinks she's qualified to serve. It probably doesn't help when the vast majority of the primary opponent's supporters favor the Dem either.

 

"May" be more difficult? Yeah right. Nothing wrong with wishful thinking on your part but O'Connell is dead in the water and Republicans just lost a sure thing.

Republicans are so mad at Dems they are shooting themselves in the head.

It will be ugly for Dems in November but they will NOT lose the Senate unless some new catastrophe happens along the way.

 

Why would O'Connell need the NRSC's support? She can get money from tea party express.

I think initially the numbers will look bad due to anger from Castle supporters. This will slowly subside and she will squeak out a victory over Coons.

 

Because tea partiers alone aren't enough to win a general election.

 

How could you know that? The Tea party is more powerful then the NRSC. That's why the Tea Party "long shots" keep defeating the NRSC's candidates.

 

Republicans are screwed. They can't get their act together because the are stuck in a box, angry that the world is not the way they want it. Most of the Tea Party are former/present Republicans have split their own party. They've made some gains but these Tea Party'ers and their new candidates are gonna fizzle over the long haul. They won't be re-elected and the Republicans are scrambling for answers. ......

...Meanwhile Obama is very specific on what he wants to do, answers very clearly, does want he says, knows how to fire up his base and how to reach them,( thru media, Internet, and the newest technologies). The democrats can't get their act together neither, but they'll fall back in line as soon as they start feeling lonely as Obama #'s rise. IMO some republicans will jump on board as well trying to save their necks, saying "they voted for change but have conservative values".Remember Compassionate Conservative??

The McDonnell chick that beat Castle said something like,(when asked about if she would like to get a endorsement for the Republican candidate) "yeah it would be nice but we don't need'em we can do it with out'em". Repubs are split and sinking quick. And Palin is their captain, go figure.

 

When a out of touch movement like the Tea Party is more powerful than the NRSC, republicans are in trouble.

 

Thank you Tea Party!

You just handed the senate back to the Democrats! And I'm still not convinced the house is lost.

 

"It does conservatives little good to support candidates who, at the end of the day, while they may be conservative in their public statements, do not evince the characteristics of rectitude and truthfulness and sincerity and character that the voters are looking for."

-- Rove on the Tea Party and O'Donnell's nomination last night on Faux.

 

The tea party is more powerful then the NDSC as well. Did you see how many people the tea party got out to vote? The Republicans and the Democrats could never pull that off. Liberals should be more worried. The tea party is the most powerful political force around right now and their mission statement is to fire liberals.

 

Thta's a very simplistic analysis. Winning a primary and winning a general election are two very different things. And we have evidence from NY-23 where we saw the results of nominating a tea party candidate, even in a hard core GOP district.

Maybe tea partiers will not only be able to overwhelm the primaries, but also the general elections - we'll find out, but it doesn't appear likely. It works in primaries because turnout is low and you take out half the electorate.

 

Politicians will choose re-election over their known causes. Elected Tea Party officials will likely merge into the fold once the movement shifts out of public's attention.

GOP officials know this, but they don't know when.

 

They should run a smear campaign with photoshopped pics of Conway holding hands with MLK.

 

Generally, history shows that radicalization is a very ineffective political strategy in the US.