Obama's stump speech for candidates, comedy gold: http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2010/09/car_ditch-slurpee.html
WOW!!! Big Carl talking some sense New York gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino took aim at the prospect of Sarah Palin pursuing a presidential run in 2012 in an interview with the New York Times published on Monday night. In voicing his opinion on the matter, the Tea Party-backed hopeful reportedly criticized Palin as a "TV personality" in the making who isn't ready to serve the country in the White House. It's not the first time that Paladino has stated the view in the wake of whispers about plans in the works for Palin to mount a presidential campaign in 2012. "We need a real leader," explained the Republican candidate to New York-based station WNYC last month. "Not someone who just wants to go and throw a bunch of words around and proverbs and -- I want somebody that is going to be totally responsible. Someone that is a student of that government." Paladino told the outlet he isn't sure who in his party he thinks could earn his support to take on President Obama in the next election cycle. "I don't see anybody," he said. "Not Newt Gingrich. Not Sarah Palin. Sure enough not John McCain. I don't see 'em. Not Governor Christie either."
http://dailycaller.com/2010/10/26/m...s-fly-that-dem-will-endorse-rival-in-florida/ Charlie Crist is spreading false rumors that Meeks is planning to drop out of the Florida Senate Race. If anyone was looking for the dirtiest politician this cycle, I think we've found him.
All he needs to do is run the following simple ad: "The Meek May inherit the Earth, Buts Meeks ain'ts gettings Floridas." That would rule.
A memo released from the DNC this morning -- Re: Update on Early Voting Summary Early voting is underway across the country, and the results to date are not only not consistent with the existence of a Republican enthusiasm gap, they show that in key races Democrats are winning. The Democratic National Committee collects early vote data across the country, and in 11 key early vote states, Democrats have cast more ballots than Republicans. Some key points: •We are winning. In key states, such as NV, IA, CA, WI, WA, IL and WV, Democrats are outpacing Republicans in early vote. In other states, such as CO, Democrats tend to cast votes later than Republicans (as they did in 2008), and we are confident that margin will close •The Republican ‘surge’/’wave’ has not materialized in early vote, and it’s not going to. When we look at early vote results by distinct vote history levels (mid-term voters / presidential-year only voters), Democratic early voting is comparable, and often higher, than Republican voting. •In key congressional districts, Democrats are out-performing in early vote. In many key districts, Democrats are outpacing Republicans both in raw ballots cast and participation rates.
these are registered voter counts, not results. i would not assume democrats are voting for democrats.
There are plenty of reasons why anyone could call bull**** on those stats but that is not one of those reasons.
Sorry, you'll have to explain to me why not. I agree with basso mad: ) that if those are simply registered voter counts, it's not a given that registered Democrats vote Democrat. However, likewise, it's not a given that registered Republicans vote Republican (especially with all the zany TEA Party candidates). Would those flipper counts push? Maybe.
Of course its not a given but historically recent elections are driven by turnout period. It just simply depends on the turnout of each bloc. Even in a state like Texas where people arent even registered you can make assumptions about who is a democrat or republican based on past voting history, where they live, income level, ethnicity, etc... Now none of that is a perfect measure of who is a democrat or republican but it is good enough to predict voting patterns on a large scale. (especially when measuring generic democratic and republican candidates which is more and more the case) Consequently, campaigns are able to predict turnout based on early voting returns by using such measures. In some states people just register with parties and its much easier but its still very easy. Consequently the only thing that matters is party turnout. When people talk about enthusiasm gaps between parties, those are real and very important measures of voting strength. Now obviously how one does with the "swing" voting crowd is important in tipping the balance but if you arent getting your base to vote the middle ground wont mean much. The value of independent voters is less significant than what the media portrays it as. Someone can call themselves independent but that doesnt mean that I cant guess how they'll vote with some reasonable accuracy. There are regression models and data sets that do a pretty solid job of predicting the voting patterns of even self-identified independents. Obviously swing voters do exist and maybe they'll vote republican this time around but the lack of Democratic turnout (as well as higher Republican turnout) will be a far bigger deciding factor than the mythical swing voter. Hell the post-Obama election voting trends confirmed this fact. A lot of people lauded the Obama election has the creation of a new Democratic electorate when in reality all Obama did was succeed in driving turnout of Democrats who dont normally vote. Their ability to make Republicans vote Democrat were grossly exaggerated. In the following year (2009) voting trends went back to pre-2008 trends. Now that's not to say that candidates cant influence an electorate to change their vote. (after all we've seen 3rd parties win statewide races) but those are fewer and far between today. Turnout is more of a factor in winning than ever before. That said, the reason why I dont care what the DNC says is that I dont trust their definition of "democratic" or "republican" turnout. Just a personal opinion but I dont believe a damn thing that the DNC or RNC say when it comes to their predictions on how early voting is going so far.
CBS has a pretty good interactive map of all the races for Senate, House and Governor. http://www.cbsnews.com/election2010
