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via TPM -- Early voting has begun in Nevada. And we're just starting to see some early numbers. Jon Ralston, one of the top political journalists in Nevada, reports "no enthusiasm gap yet" when comparing the first early numbers to the last midterm election. Historical comparison shows Democrat/Republican breakdown in early vote standard for midterm election; no enthusiasm gap yet Elsewhere on this blog, I have shown you that the Democrats are leading the GOP in early voting, but not by as much as registration totals in Clark. Below is an analysis of what happened last midterm, in addition to the Washoe County numbers from Saturday, indicating no enthusiasm gap yet. Clark = 17,066 early votes 8062 Democrats (47% - 2.4% percent of total Dems) 6488 Republicans (38% - 2.7% percent of total GOP) So Democrats underperforming Republicans by three-tenths of a percent. Washoe = 4260 early votes 1733 Democrats (41% - 2% of Dems) 1964 Republicans (46% - 2.3% of GOP) So in Washoe, same underperformance by Democrats. So pretty much even after first day in terms of percentage of each universe. Democrats performed yesterday as well as they did on the first day in 2006 (47.0 in '06 compared to 47.2 in '10) and the GOP performed worse yesterday than they did in '06 (39.2% in '06 compared to 38% in '10). So, GOP is actually performing worse as a share than they did in the last midterm for day 1 even though they outperformed registration. And their performance is not so far changing the composition of the electorate. Remember, though, this is only 1 of 14 days of data.
Also consider Angle is a dimwitted fruitcake who obviously chills enthusiasm of the sane Republicans in Nevada. If the GOP in Nevada hadn't been so collectively stupid in nominating her, Reid would be getting clobbered and sent to retirement where he belongs.
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Actually the difference is greater than 3/10 of a percentage point. It's a 10-15% difference (you can't just subtract percentages for comparisons since they aren't reflective as a whole). So if 2% of all Dems have voted and 2.3% of all GOP has voted, that's actually a 15% difference (meaning GOP voters are 15% more likely to have voted than a dem).
They aren't really comparing Dems to GOP. They are comparing Dems 2010 to Dems 2006 and GOP 2010 to GOP 2006. That's where they found Dems voting at the same level as 2006 but the GOP voting less. I think it's all a meaningless exercise though. One day of early voting is not really indicative of anything.
Favorite line - "Winning elections is great, but it's not an end in and of itself. An election is only a means to an end: Governing is the end, governing in ways that benefit the large preponderance of the people, not just a select few." A whole lot of people on both sides of the aisle should heed this advice.
Unfortunately, no. I don't even know if there's anything comprehensive for midterms like this. I remember there were people collecting data in 2008, but it's a hell of a lot easier when you're tracking one primary election. On TPM (I think), I did see an article similar to the Nevada one suggesting that Dems had good trends in Iowa and Ohio after a week or so of early voting. One thing that I think throws all this off is the tea partiers. This is entirely a stereotype, but it strikes me that they are more the type that will vote on election day than early vote, so if that's where the GOP enthusiasm is coming from, then these trends showing early Dem strength don't mean a lot.
I can tell you from experience that state parties and larger campaigns typically coordinate in requesting early vote data to determine turnout/figure out who not to call/canvass since they already voted. That said, there's a lag regarding that data. Some counties are really timely in giving it out while other counties release it once a week. Also this varies state by state. Additionally most parties/campaigns wont share what data they find and the media doesnt ever take the time to coordinate with county clerks to get early vote data. As a result its nearly impossible to get good early vote data.
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Mr McMillan was comedy gold! Everything out of his mouth: "The streets of New York are too dirty....cause THE RENT IS TOO DAMN HIGH!" :grin:
This could almost be O'Donnell or Angle's campaign ad. <object width="370" height="220" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="http://www.babelgum.com/embed/6003213"><param name="movie" value="http://www.babelgum.com/embed/6003213"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="never"></param><embed src="http://www.babelgum.com/embed/6003213" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="never" allowfullscreen="true" width="370" height="220"> </embed></object>
i might vote for that guy- better than either of the alternatives. his vocal cadences remind me of george thorogood: <object width="640" height="505"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/ISmgOrhELXs?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ISmgOrhELXs?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="505"></embed></object>
Strikes me as the opposite - it's much easier to vote by mail than to maneuver your Medicare scooter into the voting booth.
