Midterm Election Predictions

Aren't you the one believes bush is the one behind 9/11?

 

VA-Sen: Another poll showing Webb lead
In case there was still doubt about the veracity of the DSCC poll, Gallup now has chimed in with its latest:

Opinion Research for CNN. 10/26-29. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trendlines)

Allen (R) 46
Webb (D) 50

Here are the other two polls from today for good measure:

Rasmussen. 10/25. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (10/25 results)

Allen (R) 46 (50)
Webb (D) 51 (48)

Garin Hart Yang (D) for the DSCC. 10/26-29. Likely voters. MoE 3.5% (No trend lines)

Allen (R) 38
with leaners: 43

Webb (D) 43
with leaners: 47


Arizona Senate race is tightening, Pederson is on the move
The Arizona Senate race between Democrat Jim Pederson and incumbent Jon Kyl hasn't been garnering a lot of attention outside of Arizona. But the state-based media is reporting on a close race. Tight and tightening are the operative words in Arizona.

Today's headline in the Arizona Republic reads "Giuliani touts Kyl's experience in tight Senate race."

Also today, the Tuscon Citizen reported:

Maryland may go Republican. FWIW Steele is a black moderate Republican.
Black Democrats support Steele

 

Polls: 4 key Senate races tight
POSTED: 8:48 a.m. EST, October 31, 2006

(CNN) -- With a week to go before voters cast their midterm election ballots, four key Senate races remain statistical dead heats, and Republican Sen. Mike DeWine faces uphill sledding in his re-election battle in Ohio, according to new CNN polls released Tuesday.

The polls were conducted for CNN by Opinion Research Corporation in Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia, all of which have hard-fought Senate races that could determine whether Democrats manage to wrest control of the upper chamber from Republicans.

Among likely voters in Missouri, Republican Sen. Jim Talent and his Democratic challenger, State Auditor Claire McCaskill, were at a dead heat, each with 49 percent support. However, among the larger pool of registered voters, McCaskill led 51-43 percent.

The sampling error for likely voters was plus or minus 4 percentage points; for registered voters, plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez held a 51-44 percent edge among likely voters over his GOP challenger, state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. However, that gap was within the sampling error.

In Tennessee, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. -- hoping to make history as the first black candidate ever elected by Southern voters to a Senate seat -- trailed his Republican opponent, Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, by a margin of 52-44 percent among likely voters.

However, among registered voters, Corker's lead was just 47-45 percent, and the results for both likely and registered voters were within the sampling error.

Ford and Corker are battling for an open seat now held by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, who did not seek re-election.

In Virginia, Republican Sen. George Allen -- who has watched his once considerable lead vanish after a series of gaffes and controversies -- trailed his Democratic challenger, former Navy Secretary Jim Webb, by 50-46 percent among likely voters, which was also within the sampling error.

The GOP incumbent who appears to be in the most trouble in the states polled by CNN was Sen. Mike DeWine of Ohio, who trailed his Democratic rival, Rep. Sherrod Brown, by a margin of 54-43 percent among likely voters.

Democrats need to make a net pickup of six seats next Tuesday in order to win control of the Senate. To get there, they are trying to win the open GOP seat in Tennessee and targeting six vulnerable Republican incumbents, including DeWine, Talent, Allen and Sens. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Conrad Burns of Montana.

Republicans are hoping to make that task more difficult by challenging Menendez and trying to pick up two open Democratic seats in Maryland and Minnesota.

The new CNN polls also showed Democrats poised to gain a governorship in Ohio and keep one in Republican-leaning Tennessee.

In the Buckeye State, Democratic Rep. Ted Strickland led Secretary of State Ken Blackwell by a margin of 59 percent to 36 percent among likely voters in a race to succeed outgoing Republican Gov. Bob Taft.

Meanwhile, down in the Volunteer State, Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen, seeking a second term, held a lead of 59-37 percent among likely voters over his Republican opponent, state Sen. Jim Bryson.

 

Updated ...

Dems win:

Montana - (R) Sen. Conrad Burns vs. (D) State Sen. Jon Tester
Pennsylvania - (R) Sen. Rick Santorum vs. (D) State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr.
Ohio - (R) Sen. Mike Dewine vs. (D) Rep. Sherrod Brown
New Jersey - (R) State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr. vs. (D) Sen. Bob Menendez

Too close to call:

Tennessee - (R) Mayor Bob Corker vs. (D) Harold Ford, Jr.
Virginia - (R) Sen. George Allen vs. (D) Fmr. Sec. of Navy Jim Webb
Missouri - (R) Sen. Jim Talent vs. (D) State Auditor Claire McCaskill

Repubs win:

Connecticut - (R) Joe Lieberman vs. (D) Ned Lamont
Maryland - (R) Lt. Gov. Michael Steele vs. (D) Rep. Ben Cardin
Arizona - (R) Sen. Jon Kyl vs. (D) Jim Pederson


If the Dems can pick up both Virginia and Missouri, ... The Repubs are definitely sweating bullets.

 

I don't think Steele is going to win in Maryland. Call it a hunch, or whatever you like, but he did poorly on Russert's show Sunday, and while I don't have the links handy, I remember reading that Cardin was moving back in front.

I agree with the 4 wins in your post. OK, that's 4. I think Webb and McCaskill will win. That's 6. Lieberman will caucus with the Democrats, so I guess you were having some fun.

I think Ford has a hard time winning. If it were Ohio, sure, but I'm concerned about turnout in Tennessee, with so many negative ads, and I'm worried that his race will matter more to those that show up to vote, than to those who decide to stay home.

I think that when it's all over, it'll be 51-49 Democrats, with Lieberman caucusing with the Democratic Party, after receiving what he considers to be enough sucking up from the leadership.

Heck, could be 52-48!


Keep D&D Civil.

 

A Steele win would be a major upset. MD stays Dem.

OH, PA, RI and MT are near locks for the Dems and NJ is trending strongly Dem now. I project all five will be D seats.

That means the D's need two of three of the following:

Virginia
Missouri
Tennessee

I'm guessing we get two of the three and regain control of the Senate, though it could really go either way.

As for Lieberman, he's promised to caucus with D's but he's also repeatedly said he was promised seniority. If he gets it, he causes horrible problems for the D's on Iraq. If he doesn't, he has cover to move over to the R caucus and dance with those what brung him. That is the biggest of several reasons to root for an unlikely Lamont win. Lamont's moving up over the last few days, but it's still a tough race to win.

If Lieberman wins, we need to win all three of the above races to have a reliable majority.

 

I'm in Baltimore. Last poll I saw had Cardin ahead by about 5 points. I think Cardin takes it. However, I'm not going to be surprised at all if Erlich (the Republican incumbent) beats the O'Malley (the Democratic challenger) in the Governor's race, even though O'Malley has been consistently leading in the polls.

I've lived in Baltimore all through O'Malley's term as mayor and I couldn't point you to one real accomplishment. He hasn't succeeded at his most high profile initiative- significantly reducing the murder rate.

I just don't feel a lot of enthusiasm in the state for him. I hope I'm wrong and he wins.

 

I forgot RI!! I agree that the Dems win those 5 seats (which is 4 pickups and 1 retention).

Don't they just need 6 to regain control? Or does that 6 include Lieberman?

Anyway, Virginia and NJ are trending Democratic.

And if there is a God in Heaven, presidential hopeful George "Deer Head in the Mailbox" Allen will lose in Virginia.

Missouri is too close to call.

If the Dems need Lieberman to get to 51, that will be a very sad day indeed. If they do not, one would hope that Lieberman get the last committee seat assignment for the Dems, seeing how he is an independent and all.

 

Hope you're right but the RNC has put in place the so called "firewall" plan to dump tons of money in those three races to hold the senate. From what I understand, they have pretty much given up on the rest of the races.

 

How's this for a nightmare scenario...

Democrats have something to be ecstatic about -- because they've taken control of the Senate: 51-49. Rejoicing is heard across Blue State America!

[CUE: exterior haunted-house style black-and-white shot of the Capitol.]

Of course, the true makeup of the Senate is 49-2-49, since there are now two Independent senators -- Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and...

[CUE: loud and ominous organ chord.]

...Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. But since both have sworn to caucus with he Democrats, the result is a 51-49 split.

Before Democrats can relax and enjoy their victory, however, the Baker-Hamilton report on Iraq is released. President Bush (now fighting for political relevancy) does the unthinkable and demands Donald Rumsfeld's resignation. Democrats celebrate once again, as they see their view of the Iraq fiasco completely vindicated.

But wait...

[CUE: same shot of Capitol, with lightning flash and thunder roll.]

...Bush surprises everyone by announcing the appointment of Joe Lieberman as Secretary of Defense. The public views it as a historic "reaching across the aisle," and Bush's approval numbers climb above 50% once again. Lieberman, of course, accepts.

Since Lieberman was just elected senator, this causes a sudden vacancy. The Republican governor of Connecticut gets to name a replacement to Lieberman's Senate seat, and -- unsurprisingly -- selects a Republican.

This shifts the balance of the Senate back to 50-50, meaning Vice President Cheney casts the deciding vote, and...

[CUE: dark closeup of desk with plaque reading "Karl Rove;" sound of insanely evil laughter, followed by minor-key dirge-like organ music.]

...the Republicans retain control of the Senate!


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/boo-two-terrifying-ta_b_32900.html

 

This seems like a stupid rule. If something doesn't get the majority, I don't see why a "tie-breaker" vote is needed? Because nothing will ever get passed...well when there is such true and complete division among the populace, maybe a lot of things shouldn't get passed....??

 

No doubt Rove will play this card. Uberidiotman may even take the job. May make more sense to just let him causus with the Repubs.

Missouri and Tennessee are still very winnable for the Repubs.

 

I like the way you think.

 

It's time for the closing argument. The issue of the day may be Iraq. I think it is. But an issue isn't an argument. An argument brings the issues together and motivates action. So what's the argument? What should candidates and surrogates be saying at campaign stops this week?

I think it comes down to this. Beyond the incompetence, the bungled policies and the lies (which are plenty bad enough), where the country finds itself is a situation in which the leadership of the country either can't see, or won't see, or most likely wants to pretend not to see what a growing majority of the country clearly can see.

It's most clear, most visible in Iraq. Though there's a bit less consensus on whether it was a mistake from the outset, there's an overwhelming consensus among Americans today that Iraq has become a disaster for the United States and that it's not going to get better on the course we're now on.

But the president just says, No. Sure, there are a few bumps along the way. But fundamentally it was a good idea, we're doing the right thing and we're on the right track. No matter what however many people tell him, that's what his gut tells him so it's full speed ahead. He's going to stay the course right over the cliff.

In America, politics action in Washington usually tracks fairly closely with public opinion, even though the voters only get a real bit at the apple every two years. But it doesn't have to be that way. The people in charge can pretty much ignore what people think and say. For the two years between elections, they're close to invulnerable.

And that's the closer in this election. How do you think Iraq has gone? How do you think Congress is doing its job? How did you think Katrina was handled? Different people are going to have different hot button issues. But across the board I think what we're seeing in the country is that sense of disconnect -- things are seriously off course but the folks in charge won't admit it and don't know what to do about it.

So to voters I think the pitch is, think back over the last two years. You only have one chance to go on record with your verdict. Thumbs up or thumbs down. One chance before you have to go back and sit in the stands again for another two years.

Are you on board with what's happening? Or do you want to go on record saying things have to change? One chance.

And if you give the thumbs up, how will you feel when you wake up on November 8th?

-- Josh Marshall

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

 

On an off tangent I used to find the Political Oddsmaker handicap major races.

http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/odds.cfm

But I no longer find updated odds on races. What gives, do you have to pay now?

 

Slightly off tangent but what is happening to the Lampson campaign? I've been reading recent polls that its a dead heat to the write in Republican. This seat looked to be an easy pickup for the Democrats given that DeLay's name was still on the ballot but it looks like any advantage that Lampson had has been frittered away.

 

The mechanics of filling in a write-in candidate correctly, I suspect, may cause Gibbs to not see the numbers she is polling at. Remember too that the idiots who punch the Republican tab at the top of the ballot are voting for DeLay

As an aside, I read that "voting officials" have assured "the public" that spelling Gibbs name correctly is not a show stopper, i.e. close will count. This should be a "chad" type of issue.