I’d guess to start the year Correa is batting 5th until he proves he is back. Springer/Brantley/Altuve/Bregman/Correa is what I would guess.
My guess on what the lineup would like if the season began today... with Kemp in LF and Brantley at DH: CF Springer 3B Bregman DH Brantley 2B Altuve SS Correa 1B Gurriel RF Tucker/Reddick C Chirinos LF Kemp with Brantley in LF and White at DH: CF Springer 3B Bregman LF Brantley 2B Altuve SS Correa 1B Gurriel RF Tucker/Reddick DH White C Chirinos And just for fun, we know the Astros are interested in him, so let's say that they sign Cruz: CF Springer 3B Bregman LF Brantley 2B Altuve SS Correa DH Cruz RF Tucker/Reddick 1B Gurriel C Chirinos I love that last lineup. Brantley's ability to play LF/DH/1B provides so much versatility. You could give him a day off from the outfield and give Yuli the day off as well and still have Brantley at 1B, Kemp in LF and Cruz still as your DH. That combined with Diaz's versatility will give this Hinch nearly limitless options when constructing his lineup day throughout the grind of the regular season. I also think there could be a slight chance of Brantley batting second in the lineup to provide a lefty bat that breaks up the right handed hitters at the very top of the order. Granted, even if he hits in the three spot he's still providing a lefty bat to break up guys like Springer, Bregman, Altuve and Correa.
I (think) I'm with you (?) here... it's a nice deal, value-wise, and Brantley will contribute. But... does he actually address a need? He's a ~.750-.800 OPS guy with average power who doesn't play very good defense (right?)... They seem to have *a lot* of those guys (Reddick (who *does* play good defense), White, Gurriel, possibly Tucker...) And unless they can move Reddick, they've now sunk $58MM into their outfield (Reddick + Brantley) the next two years, likely making additional moves harder. I don't know - he's a fine hitter, and all - but I'd rather Gurriel, Kemp, White play the LF/1B/DH carousel and they add a legitimate power bat. If they do that, then I'll feel better about the Brantley deal.
Agreed here. If Charlie Morton is healthy - and I have no idea if he is - I'd much rather have spent that same money on him over a Brantley-type.
I suppose it boils down to how much value one places on the difference between a 790 ops (Brantley) and 750 (Gurriel/Reddick). FWIW, Brantley projects to be worth more than Gurriel and Reddick combined this season (2.4 fWAR for Brantley vs 1.3 for Reddick and 1.0 for Gurriel).
The Astros are eleventy-billion/million times smarter than me (and all of us...) so I defer to that and assume they know/see things I can't. Having said that..... I'm struggling to figure out what need Brantley addresses. He's..... Josh Reddick (with a lesser glove), isn't he? Maybe a more consistent Josh Reddick? What am I missing here? Again, it's a nice addition and the money is remarkably favorable, value-wise, but.....
Except he's not, he's an .800-.850 OPS guy. Save for Reddick's one outlier season in 2017, Brantley has been a noticeably better hitter over the last 5 seasons. And a .468 SLG doesn't qualify as average power. The only question, and it's a good one, is will he stay healthy. If he's healthy, the Astros lineup is much better.
Yeah, OK... All fair. I'm likely underrating him and being more emotional than analytical. He's a nice hitter. It's just... between Gurriel/Kemp/White/Tucker, he feels like a marginal upgrade - and that's assuming White regresses, Tucker doesn't make the leap, and/or 2018 is the norm and not the exception moving forward for Gurriel.
Brantley's xwOBA last season was about equal to Bregman's. He's a much better hitter than Reddick. Also, while he's not a great defender, he's been about average over his career in LF (-0.1 UZR/150 over his career in LF), so he's not a liability out there either. Hopefully he can play a decent 1B as it will be nice to reduce Gurriel's PA. An emerging Tucker in LF with Brantley at 1B would be nice.
If he's healthy, the Astros lineup is much better and stronger defensively even if he is only used as the DH.
Aside from Machado,Harper and Goldschmidt, who did you want that was significantly better than Brantley? He's not replacing Yuli, White or Tucker. Tucker is gonna get his chance. Our OF's in 2018 Springer -780 OPS /.468 SLG Kemp -743 OPS/ .392 SLG Marwin - .733 OPS/.409 SLG Reddick - 700 OPS/ .400 SLG Marisnick- 674 OPS/.399 SLG Brantley - 832 OPS/.468 SLG He's really replacing Kemp/Marwin/Marisnick/Fisher, that is more than a marginal upgrade to me.
Well, Goldschmidt..... In terms of free agents, Nelson Cruz - who they might still target. The Astros have assets to make trades. I don't accept that the pool is limited to free agents or players who have been traded. But..... he's fine. It's a nice get at fair value. He'll upgrade 1B/DH & push Gurriel to the Marwin role. Hopefully, Tucker plays LF every day and/or they can unload Reddick.
So for your question, why do you include Goldy as exempt? He was readily available within the Astros means, and he was a guy that would have significantly helped the Astros in 2019. After Goldy, there just aren't guys left that signficantly impact the Astros that don't pitch or catch that are readily available within the Astros means. Astros 2017 OFs Springer 0.889 OPS/0.530 Slug Kemp 0.500/ 0.243 Marwin 0.907/0.530 Reddick 0.847/0.484 Marisnick 0.815/0.496 Brantley 0.801/0.444 If just looking at 1 year's data as your above argument does, Marisnick should have been expected to be a better hitter last season than Brantley. If using projections that weight data from multiple seasons, Brantley was easily expected to be a better hitter in 2018 as he was. Using projections, Brantley is likely an upgrade for Astros, but it is more like a 1 win upgrade than something like Cole last season or Goldy, one of the good catchers, or a pitcher would be this season. As far as wow factor goes, acquiring Pressly last season got less attention and helps the Astros more despite Brantley being a better player. Astros have too many OFs. I expect they make a trade and get something of at least decent value. That said, that implies the Astros OF traded has decent value. P.S. Astros have a great team. It should not be construed that Brantley is a bad player based on Astros having good players.
Houston currently has 14 members of their projected opening day roster scheduled to hit free agency in the next 2 seasons (8 in 2019, 6 in 2020).
I merely included him because he is indisputably a better player than Brantley, something you can't say about most of the rumored available players. I would agree with 2017 Marwin, Jake and Reddick being similar to Brantley...if that season wasn't clearly and outlier for all of them based on career trends. Brantley has had an 800+ OPS in his last 4 seasons (not counting the season he basically missed all of), there's nothing to really suggest what he did last season was out of the norm. If I'm weighting multiple seasons what Brantley has done over the last 5 years blows all of our players away aside from Altuve.
Hypothetical Id be ok with: Astros get: C JT Realmuto OF Brayan Hernandez Marlins get: OF Kyle Tucker C Max Stassi SP Tyler Ivey
Is anyone else floored that we signed Brantley for less than what McCutchen got, in terms of both years and AAV? Going into the offseason, with all else being equal, I valued Brantley higher than McCutchen. I felt at this stage in their careers, McCutchen is more name recognition, while Brantley's biggest question mark is health. If I am the GM of any team in the league, I'm ranking Brantley higher. And for us specifically, Brantley is a perfect fit, as he will [hopefully] be a stabilizing figure in our lineup, is a lefty, and will provide a consistently tough out.
