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Michael Beasley per 36: 27.2 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 57% TS%, 26.4 PER

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by bmd, Mar 19, 2016.

  1. FearTheBeardJH

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    Most impressive stat is 4 assists on 88 FGA. Or maybe Rockets going from -0.1 pts per 100 possesions without Beasley on court to -19.2 pts per 100 possesions with him is even more impressive.

    Even with crazy boxscore stats he had negative impact so far. I wonder what will happen when his shooting returns closer to his 50 TS% average. Players with such low basketball IQ are simply not good enough to get non-garbage NBA minutes. I'd be very suprised if he played in playoffs.
     
  2. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Given the quality of intellect of all of your posts that I've seen, I am completely content ending up on the opposite side of the spectrum in most likely nearly all things you form an opinion about.
     
  3. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    This is very very misleading. You have to compare his very small sample size +/- states to the other four players he is playing with compared to the other pf that was in his role before him. Otherwise it's a garbage analysis.
     
  4. FearTheBeardJH

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    RPM takes into account the quality of your teammates and opposition and his RPM is not good either. One guy even compared Beasley offensively to Harden, who is 3rd in the league in offensive RPM with 6.38, meanwhile Beasley offensive RPM is negative at -0.90. It seems like you guys created accounts in 2007/2008, but didn't watch basketball until last month or something. I'm pretty sure any knowledgeable NBA fan would agree with me about Beasley.
     
  5. HtownRock

    HtownRock Member

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    I agree that people fawning over Beasley are getting too ahead of themselves, but there is one big difference between the past Beasley and the current version, in that he is putting up very efficient numbers at least offensively. The main reason Beasley had miserable +/- throughout his career was his poor shot selection and inefficient shooting, which at least for now is not the problem. So assuming he can keep up his offensive efficiency (and this is a big if), I think his +/- will eventually improve, because I've never seen a player with 25+ PER and 60 TS% having negative impact on his team.
     
  6. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    I'm sure the knowledgable NBA fan would agree with you, but one of the core assumptions - that Beasley is a TS% 50% player - is extremely extremely weak for projecting his performance for 30-40 games on the Rockets.

    The idea that players can leave the NBA for years at a time and will not improve/regress is silly. While it's likely Beasley will come down to earth in terms of TS%, there is no reason to believe he won't finish significantly higher than the 50%. There's no reason to believe he will. It's random and if he was last at 50%, then it's extremely possible that he would have improved.

    The numbers you're using would convince me of your argument if we were looking at a player being acquired from another NBA team or immediately signing from a competitive FIBA team. However, there are variables that advanced stats can't take into account:

    - What did he practice for those years?
    - Is he in better shape than ever before?
    - Has he matured as a person?

    You know, this is why people go abroad. To get paid to work on their game, so they can improve upon whatever stats they had in the NBA. Why on earth would Patrick Beverley be shooting 40% from 3? Why didn't anyone sign Goudelock a year ago?

    It's a flawed argument. I see Beasley cooling down as he becomes less shy about ignoring teammates and when he starts tasting the financial possibilities of putting up a bunch of points on the Rockets before the big $$$ summer.

    But to say that the reason why he'll cool down is because his numbers are not aligning with his pre-CBA numbers - that's a farcical argument, I doubt any statistician would use those stats or thoughts like "any knowledgable fan would agree with me" as a core argument.

    That's why the argument that he won't play in the playoffs is more like "knowledgable NBA fan" convo, but not really legit discussion content on here. This is a significantly more sophisticated board than your average knowledgable NBA fan is used to. We have lawyers, accountants, CBA experts, statisticians, doctors, coaches, 30+ year fans, ex players, current players, insiders, journalists, etc cutting it up here.
     
  7. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    Where are you pulling these numbers from? We're talking an 8 game sample here.

    The guy is shooting lights out - there's no way he's a negative on offense.
     
  8. FearTheBeardJH

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    It is possible. Stoudemire on the Knicks had good stats, but had negative impact. Same could be said about Adrian Dantley's career to some degree.

    My argument isn't that Beasley isn't good because he will regress and finish with 50 TS%(which is way more likely than him staying at 60 TS%), but that even in those 8 games with those stats he had negative impact, which is true. No passing, bad defense, low basketball IQ simply can't produce positive impact. So even if he played the same he did those games, I don't think he should get significant playing time.

    But he has played over 10k minutes in the NBA and the only thing he's done better this year is shoot better which is fluke. Players like Beasley, Jeff Green, Dion Waiters suck and they've made any team worse when they are on the court.

    My prediction is he will be cut in the summer at the latest.
     
  9. Rockets025

    Rockets025 Rookie

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    What's impressive is your ignorance

    It's impressive how you and morey continue to base opinions on the analytics and stat sheet after every night

    Its impressive how well he's played dispite his low minutes and coming from China a week ago with a team & system he's never been in

    Its impressive how he can create for himself and is becoming an offensive threat to take pressure off Harden & Howard

    Its impressive how well he's played while having a r****d as a coach(jk a r****d could do better)

    Its impressive offensively he's looked like a border line all star coming up

    So you and Morey and over analyzing mofos should take your MIT degrees, analytics, stat sheets, and numbers and just stfu until after playoffs

    Its time for celebration b****es
     
  10. oakdogg

    oakdogg Contributing Member

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    Why do you all just cherry pick some stats and disregard others? The numbers show that Beasley's amazing shooting performances haven't really helped the team, as counterintuitive as that is. Explain why that's the case? FearTheBeard has shown a potential reason - Beasley's a black hole & there is no ball movement. Another obvious reason would be bad defense. Show why these aren't the case. Everything you all are saying doesn't address the facts & logic of FearTheBeard's argument at all.
     
  11. FANfrom86toNow

    FANfrom86toNow Contributing Member

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    Whew, I haven't written on this board in a while this season, it has been so frustrating to watch the Rockets, although I still watch every game and read this board before, during and afterwards. I just LOVEEEEEE PAINNNNNN!

    But back to the topic at hand, Beasley is a very good bright spot for us. My eye test tells me that what he is doing is sustainable if he stays mentally engaged and doesn't let the demeanor of the team and this season get a hold of him.

    That being said, I think he needs to start playing 35 minutes a game, to me he's that good. But I also think DMo should be playing 35 minutes a game as well, although I don't know if his stamina is ready, but at least 30 minutes a game. So the only way to achieve both, is to play Beasley some at SF and DMo some at center. Therefore my suggested starting lineup, although I seriously doubt or have the confidence that JB would ever do anything like this (that's another story), would be the following:

    PG - Harden (He is the PG anyway bringing up the ball and no defense)
    SG - Ariza (Let him guard the PG or SG on the other team, the better of them
    SF - Beasley (He is really a point Forward, can handle the ball good enough)
    PF- DMo (His true position anyway, he is getting better at rebounding slowly)
    C - Dwight (no way JB benches him as others mention, he will step up in POs)

    Starting the game with this unit makes us MUCH bigger, gives us more offensive FIREPOWER, and gives us maybe better rebounding if Beasley keeps it up. (Although Bev is a great rebounder for his position, he is still much smaller) Beasley also contests more shots in the paint then Bev can, so our overall defense should be better. Of course Harden can't guard PG, but he doesn't guard SGs either, so it's a net even either way, the team will have to compensate for this.

    Also, other teams will have a VERY HARD time trying to defend this team. Ariza will get more wide open 3's, plus he is doing much better lately cutting to the basket with the ball when defenders are trying to close out on him. James or Beasley are capable of bringing the ball up the floor. It would be harder to double or collapse on Dwight with that much offensive firepower on the floor to start the game, so maybe we can get him a few post touches when his man is SEALED under the basket by him which he is good at when other players can't lag off of their man to double him quickly.

    Now, while JB's rotations are even worse than McHale's ever was, he should then go to the following players off the bench with some staggering:

    PG - Bev (he will do better as a backup PG as he should be, also less minutes
    SG - KJ (he and Bev in together is less offense, but better backcourt def)
    SF - Brewer (We know JB gonna play him anyway, limit him to 13 MAX,
    PF - Harrell (We talking maybe 10 minutes or less for energy, DMo/Beas
    C - Capela (Should be getting 8 to 13 minutes to back up Dwight)

    To handle the Hack a strategy that teams use again us, Capela should only be played at the beginning of the 2nd and 4th quarters where teams won't be able to hack him unless they want to get into the penalty quickly. So he should get about the first 5 to 6 minutes of every 2nd and 4th quarters. JB would have to model the rest of his rotations around this concept, so we know that he won't do it then because he seems incapable of managing smart rotations. But he could sub-out DMo early for Bev or Harrell, and then bring DMo back in at Center when Dwight sits during the first quarter. Then let Capela start the 2nd quarter at Center, and do the same thing for the 4th.

    Once we are in the penalty during any 4th quarter, DMo should play center with Beasley or Harrell as the PF to shut down all hack a strategy in the 4th quarter. So that's pretty much from about the 8 minute mark until the 2 minute mark, roughly 6 minutes. So JB would have to plan for that, so again probably won't happen. But he could potentially start the fourth with the Dwight and Capela twin towers for 4 minutes to dominate the boards and protect the paint with shot blocking. They did fine starting for a while, and letting them play together for the first 4 or 5 minutes of the 4th should set a defensive tone to end the game on.

    JB should ALWAYS have one of either Harden or Beasley in the game, unless injured or foul trouble. He should NEVER let both of them be on the bench under any circumstance because they are our only true one on one players that can beat their man and doesn't need someone else to set them up. They would still play a lot together if they are both playing 35 plus minutes a game anyway. But don't let that other 13 minutes a game go even 2 minutes without 1 of them on the floor. Unfortunately, JB doesn't get this yet.

    Now with Beasley in the starting lineup, JB should FINALLY change the defensive strategy of the team. STOP doubling/trapping the PG with Dwight EVERRRRRRRR, just let Dwight play a zone and never leave one side of the paint below the free throw line. Have either DMo, or Beasley switch to pick up his man when they go up top to set a screen and have Dwight switch to whomever is still down low. If the other play is camped out in the corner, let Dwight zone that from the low block and be ready to close out on that corner man. It's a shorter distance than him trying to get back from the top of the key.

    And for God's sake, once one of our players are beaten and his man has driven past him to get into the paint, and then Dwight or another player has to pick them up, PLEASE PLEASE JB, tell them to stop fouling from behind and trust their big to make the pickup, but to ALSO not give up on the play and get to the passing lane and try to stop the PASS to the player that Dwight was guarding to help him out. So many times when our players get beat, they foul from behind and give up a 3 pt play, or just give up on the play and let the other man that was being guarded by his help to get free for a 3 pointer or too often a free layup/dunk drill to the basket. Rotate over and trap the passing lane to that player EXPECTING that the help will force the man who beat you to pass the ball off or shot a bad shot. BOX OUT, don't just watch the flight of the ball and wonder if it will drop into your hands.

    Okay, I just had to get this out. I know that no Rockets coaches or anyone will read this and make any of these changes, but it's what being a fan is all about, HOPING for something better.
     
  12. digitallinh

    digitallinh Member

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    Sorry, I just had to chime in at the above poster calling Beasley a 'point forward' LOL
     
  13. Remlap

    Remlap Member

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    So, Beasley brings in the question:

    Terrence who?
     
  14. Rockets025

    Rockets025 Rookie

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    Eh he's just tryin to show off while he's cookin. He's kinda got a reputation to rebuild. Once he gets established is gets a stable 20-25min a game and a good fill of the team I think his "black holiness" will even out with the team.

    I think we are losing because everyone knows harden is the only one you really have to guard because most are streaky on our team. I'm all about letting Beasley ball hog it for a while as long as he makes shots to help stretch the defense away from Harden.

    Just wait my child...
     
  15. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    Bad defense wouldn't affect his negative offensive numbers that FearTheBeard is claiming.

    How does a player with a high TS% and FT% and not coughing up the ball be a negative on offense?

    Could it be that we're judging him after 8 freakin games - maybe with such a small sample you can't properly normalize his numbers.
     
  16. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    By being a black hole. Just ask Corey Maggette. Career 57.7 TS%, but horrible for his team's offense. The Clippers and Warriors were always better with him off the bench. Morey once joked after we had a comeback win against the Warriors that we could count on him to take bad shots. It's one of the bigger digs I've seen Morey take at a player.

    Not saying Beasley is Maggette, but his game right now is certainly more in that style than, say, Draymond Green's.
     
  17. T FOR 3!!!

    T FOR 3!!! Member

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    What is the fuss?? He's a classic scorer... He's doing what the Clipper's wish Crawford was still doing. He's doing what Terry used to do for the Mav's, what Manu used to do for the Spurs. Throw that stat junk in the garbage, if he can do anywhere close to this next season, he will get paid again.
     
  18. oogie boogie

    oogie boogie Member

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    FearTheBeardJH is right. Beasley is kind of a black whole on offense, but he's currently on a hot shooting streak.... and the Rockets have no offensive system nor anyone else other than James Harden who can score for themselves.. so it's not that big of an issue currently..

    To me Beasley is doing what Brewer and Smith did last season. We were sorely lacking in depth last season and once we actually got some somewhat acceptable bench players people ended up getting tricked into thinking they were great. I was super against the huge pay day Brewer got. What Beasley is doing is providing a hole that the Rockets greatly have and that's another scorer which Houston doesn't have.

    Beasley is hot right now, but he is not starter or heavy minutes material because he is a ball stopper. He doesn't move the rock, and his team defense isn't great either. The thing is that this is the exact same type of ball that Houston is playing so he looks good right now. He is filling a void that Houston has. I do believe he is worth his contract, but I hope to God he doesn't go over his head and try to think he's more than what he is. Right now he's just playing his ball, but playing his ball doesn't win you games. Team ball is what will win games.
     
  19. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Beasley isn't a ball stopper. He passes as much as any of the role players does. He keeps it moving or he decisively shoots/drives. That's not a ball stopper. The offense has more flow with him in than not.
     
  20. bmd

    bmd Member

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    I'm going to guess it's because when he's not the one scoring, he hurts the team's offense. So he's good at scoring for himself, but he hinders other players from scoring when he's not the one taking the shot.

    It could also be that because he doesn't know all the plays that he mucks up the offense a little bit by not being in the right spots and makes it harder for others.
     

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