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Measuring Playmaking Ability of our Players

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Dec 6, 2012.

  1. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Fair enough. This is measuring how effective each player has been as a playmaker this season, rather than attempting to predict how effective each player would be given the same number of touches. Since the efficiency of players will drop at different rates relative to an increase in usage and how the player's role changes (reflecting different "skill curves", to use BOP terminology), trying to predict whether Lin would be a more effective playmaker than Harden given similar number of touches is actually pretty difficult.

    If you like, you can provide Lin's adjusted numbers, and I'll plug them into my formula and share the resulting rating. Just acknowledge that whatever numbers you come up with is speculative and not factual.

    <hr>
    Update:

    One way to address your criticism is to convert the rating from a production statistic to an efficiency statistic. So, instead of:

    PLM_RTG = K * (3*PLM - PLX)

    It would be:

    PLM% = PLM / PLA

    In this case, scaling up all the "usage" boxscore stats (FGM, FGA, FTM, FTA, AST, TOV) will have pretty much no impact on PLM%. Here are PLM% stats for main rotation Rockets players this season:

    Code:
    [size=1]
    [B]Player Name        Pos   GP   MPG    %Ast    PLM     PLA      PLM_RTG  PLM%[/B]
    James Harden       SG    16   38.7   29.9    177.8   420.3    6.4      0.423
    Jeremy Lin         PG    16   34.4   42.4    113.1   288.3    3.3      0.392
    Chandler Parsons   SF    15   38.2   69.3    58.7    166.5    0.6      0.353
    Toney Douglas      PG    15   15.6   58.3    31.1    101.1   -1.2      0.308
    Carlos Delfino     SF    9    23.0   81.5    17.2    57.9    -1.1      0.297
    Marcus Morris      PF    16   20.7   63      19.0    70.4    -1.5      0.270
    Patrick Patterson  PF    15   30.2   75.8    21.9    87.0    -1.8      0.252
    Omer Asik          C     16   32.8   67.2    16.3    96.0    -3.5      0.170
    [/size]
    The problem with Lin this season is that he's simply been inefficient. I would not expect this playmaking efficiency to get better with increased usage, regardless of what he did last year.

    Here are the results for all players playing 20 MPG:

    Code:
    [size=1]
    [B]    Player Name         Tm     Pos   GP    Min    MPG     %Ast     PLM      PLA    PLM_RTG   PLM%[/B]
    1   Chris Paul          LAC    PG    17    580    34.1    22.7     202.1    414.9   11.9    0.487
    2   Tony Parker         SAS    PG    16    520    32.5    30.6     173.2    371.3   10.1    0.466
    3   Rajon Rondo         BOS    PG    14    517    36.9    30.8     177.7    382.1   10.5    0.465
    4   LeBron James        MIA    SF    15    560    37.3    41.1     158.1    344.1   8.4     0.459
    5   Kobe Bryant         LAL    SG    17    631    37.1    30.3     205.1    452.4   9.2     0.453
    6   Jason Kidd          NYK    PG    12    313    26.1    75.9     34.7     76.9    3.2     0.451
    7   Jarrett Jack        GSW    PG    17    429    25.2    31.8     104.5    232.4   6.7     0.450
    8   Goran Dragic        PHO    PG    18    568    31.6    33.7     153.3    343.3   7.3     0.447
    9   Darren Collison     DAL    PG    16    517    32.3    30.6     134.3    302.5   6.8     0.444
    10  Mike Conley Jr.     MEM    PG    14    478    34.1    36       120.4    271.4   6.7     0.444
    11  Dwyane Wade         MIA    SG    12    404    33.7    41.3     102.4    232.3   6.7     0.441
    12  Jeff Teague         ATL    PG    14    432    30.9    22.7     130.9    298.7   7.8     0.438
    13  Louis Williams      ATL    SG    14    341    24.4    34.9     87.4     199.8   6.6     0.437
    14  Nate Robinson       CHI    PG    15    315    21.0    27.7     89.2     205.2   7.2     0.435
    15  Jrue Holiday        PHI    PG    17    653    38.4    19.7     217.2    500.0   8.5     0.434
    16  George Hill         IND    PG    17    600    35.3    34.8     129.8    302.6   5.3     0.429
    17  Kyle Lowry          TOR    PG    12    374    31.2    32.8     101.3    236.2   6.6     0.429
    18  Chuck Hayes         SAC    PF    16    340    21.3    76       24.9     58.2    1.7     0.427
    19  Andre Miller        DEN    PG    18    451    25.1    33.3     103.5    242.9   5.3     0.426
    20  Luke Ridnour        MIN    PG    15    476    31.7    35.9     93.5     219.4   4.6     0.426
    21  Kevin Durant        OKC    SF    18    703    39.1    58.8     141.7    333.8   4.7     0.424
    22  Tyreke Evans        SAC    PG    14    454    32.4    33.8     97.6     230.0   5.0     0.424
    23  Russell Westbrook   OKC    PG    18    644    35.8    21.6     228.7    539.4   8.2     0.424
    24  James Harden        HOU    SG    16    619    38.7    29.9     177.8    420.3   6.3     0.423
    25  Deron Williams      BKN    PG    16    574    35.9    35.8     165.0    390.3   6.8     0.423
    26  Greivis Vasquez     NOR    PG    16    524    32.8    26.3     160.8    381.6   7.3     0.421
    27  J.R. Smith          NYK    SG    16    531    33.2    38       88.7     212.0   3.8     0.418
    28  Jose Calderon       TOR    PG    18    512    28.4    69.2     109.2    261.5   4.7     0.418
    29  Damian Lillard      POR    PG    18    678    37.7    26.5     180.0    431.9   5.8     0.417
    30  Mo Williams         UTH    PG    15    497    33.1    42.2     120.9    290.3   5.3     0.417
    31  Raymond Felton      NYK    PG    16    532    33.3    33.3     140.0    338.5   5.7     0.414
    32  Kemba Walker        CHA    PG    16    582    36.4    32       144.7    350.1   5.1     0.413
    33  Evan Turner         PHI    SF    17    587    34.5    47.8     100.8    245.0   3.6     0.411
    34  Ray Allen           MIA    SG    15    402    26.8    64.6     48.0     116.9   2.4     0.411
    35  Ramon Sessions      CHA    PG    16    463    28.9    41.8     118.9    290.1   5.1     0.410
    36  Stephen Curry       GSW    PG    17    629    37.0    38.2     156.2    382.7   4.9     0.408
    37  DeMar DeRozan       TOR    SG    18    671    37.3    44.4     107.3    265.0   3.1     0.405
    38  Brandon Jennings    MIL    PG    16    577    36.1    42.9     133.0    328.7   4.3     0.405
    39  Aaron Brooks        SAC    PG    16    357    22.3    30.6     55.3     136.9   3.0     0.404
    40  Marc Gasol          MEM    C     15    547    36.5    70.2     64.5     159.8   2.2     0.403
    41  Jamal Crawford      LAC    SG    17    492    28.9    53.1     83.8     209.7   3.1     0.400
    42  Boris Diaw          SAS    C     18    434    24.1    73.2     35.4     88.6    1.4     0.400
    43  Jamaal Tinsley      UTH    PG    16    326    20.4    56.3     65.6     164.6   3.6     0.399
    44  Carmelo Anthony     NYK    SF    16    569    35.6    39.5     124.3    315.4   3.7     0.394
    45  Jeremy Lin          HOU    PG    16    550    34.4    42.4     113.1    288.3   3.2     0.392
    46  Tim Duncan          SAS    PF    17    533    31.4    66.7     69.2     177.1   2.0     0.390
    47  Mario Chalmers      MIA    PG    15    388    25.9    60.5     60.7     156.0   2.4     0.389
    48  Jeremy Pargo        CLE    PG    11    290    26.4    31.3     65.0     167.1   3.4     0.389
    49  J.J. Redick         ORL    SG    16    484    30.3    79.2     77.5     199.8   2.4     0.388
    50  A.J. Price          WAS    PG    14    414    29.6    34.8     78.7     203.2   2.9     0.387
    51  Shannon Brown       PHO    PG    18    431    23.9    39.7     80.6     208.3   2.8     0.387
    52  O.J. Mayo           DAL    SG    17    590    34.7    58.8     93.4     241.6   2.3     0.387
    53  Alexey Shved        MIN    PG    15    365    24.3    43.1     71.4     185.3   2.9     0.386
    54  Ty Lawson           DEN    PG    18    649    36.1    39.6     148.5    385.2   3.3     0.385
    55  Kevin Martin        OKC    SG    18    537    29.8    68.6     62.8     163.1   1.7     0.385
    56  Kirk Hinrich        CHI    SG    14    378    27.0    41.4     73.0     189.9   2.8     0.384
    57  Brandon Knight      DET    PG    19    596    31.4    46.5     126.4    329.2   3.0     0.384
    58  Devin Harris        ATL    PG    12    262    21.8    53.3     36.8     96.0    2.0     0.383
    59  Manu Ginobili       SAS    SG    15    368    24.5    56.9     76.4     199.7   2.8     0.382
    60  Jordan Crawford     WAS    SG    14    344    24.6    32.4     82.1     215.0   3.3     0.382
    61  Monta Ellis         MIL    PG    16    560    35.0    49.1     125.8    329.7   3.0     0.382
    62  Joe Johnson         BKN    SG    16    602    37.6    47.9     95.3     249.8   2.2     0.381
    63  Ben Gordon          CHA    SG    14    355    25.4    53.4     66.6     174.8   2.5     0.381
    64  Rodney Stuckey      DET    PG    18    505    28.1    48.3     81.9     215.2   2.2     0.381
    65  Gary Neal           SAS    PG    16    385    24.1    50.7     59.3     156.0   2.0     0.380
    66  Paul Pierce         BOS    SF    17    574    33.8    60.8     97.4     256.5   2.2     0.380
    67  Tayshaun Prince     DET    SF    19    618    32.5    64.2     65.4     172.3   1.4     0.380
    68  Jason Terry         BOS    SG    17    479    28.2    76.8     48.1     127.0   1.3     0.379
    69  LaMarcus Aldridge   POR    PF    17    656    38.6    50.3     104.4    277.1   2.0     0.377
    70  Vince Carter        DAL    SG    17    399    23.5    48.7     63.0     168.6   1.8     0.374
    71  Blake Griffin       LAC    PF    17    565    33.2    59       84.9     228.7   1.7     0.371
    72  Andre Iguodala      DEN    SG    18    634    35.2    52.9     97.3     262.5   1.6     0.371
    73  Wesley Matthews     POR    SG    18    676    37.6    60.4     78.4     211.7   1.3     0.370
    74  Carl Landry         GSW    PF    17    453    26.6    48.8     44.7     121.1   1.0     0.369
    75  Dion Waiters        CLE    SG    17    545    32.1    35.5     111.3    302.1   2.1     0.368
    76  David West          IND    PF    17    583    34.3    61.8     71.8     196.4   1.2     0.365
    77  Al Jefferson        UTH    C     19    634    33.4    52.2     79.5     218.8   1.1     0.363
    78  Lance Stephenson    IND    SG    17    423    24.9    70       43.7     120.2   0.9     0.363
    79  John Salmons        SAC    SG    11    287    26.1    62.1     26.8     74.4    0.7     0.360
    80  Roger Mason Jr.     NOR    SG    16    333    20.8    73.3     24.0     67.4    0.5     0.356
    81  Danilo Gallinari    DEN    SF    17    571    33.6    52.8     77.6     219.2   0.8     0.354
    82  Rudy Gay            MEM    SF    15    548    36.5    46.3     84.8     240.3   0.9     0.353
    83  Chandler Parsons    HOU    SF    15    573    38.2    69.3     58.7     166.5   0.6     0.353
    84  E'Twaun Moore       ORL    SG    17    450    26.5    44.9     70.9     201.2   0.9     0.352
    85  Martell Webster     WAS    SF    13    278    21.4    68.8     24.6     70.1    0.5     0.351
    86  Glen Davis          ORL    PF    17    545    32.1    51.8     73.7     211.6   0.6     0.348
    87  Harrison Barnes     GSW    SF    17    473    27.8    56.3     44.0     126.5   0.4     0.348
    88  Arron Afflalo       ORL    SF    17    588    34.6    65.1     70.4     204.2   0.4     0.345
    89  Jonas Valanciunas   TOR    C     18    431    23.9    51.5     36.9     108.0   0.2     0.342
    90  Austin Rivers       NOR    SG    15    410    27.3    40.6     55.1     161.2   0.4     0.342
    91  Randy Foye          UTH    PG    19    494    26.0    74.3     47.6     139.4   0.3     0.342
    92  Mike Dunleavy       MIL    SF    15    405    27.0    78.9     35.7     104.5   0.2     0.341
    93  Daniel Gibson       CLE    SG    15    365    24.3    85.7     28.7     84.4    0.2     0.340
    94  Brook Lopez         BKN    C     14    417    29.8    61.3     43.7     129.0   0.2     0.339
    95  Anderson Varejao    CLE    C     17    623    36.6    68.6     38.7     115.0   0.1     0.337
    96  Alonzo Gee          CLE    SF    18    595    33.1    44.7     72.5     215.4   0.1     0.337
    97  Kendrick Perkins    OKC    C     18    454    25.2    65       23.2     69.1    0.0     0.336
    98  Nicolas Batum       POR    SF    18    709    39.4    62.3     76.9     230.2   0.0     0.334
    99  Marcus Thornton     SAC    SG    16    462    28.9    65.9     46.3     138.7   0.0     0.334
    100 Quincy Pondexter    MEM    SF    15    345    23.0    71.9     21.6     64.8    0.0     0.333
    101 M. Kidd-Gilchrist   CHA    SF    16    436    27.3    56.9     40.1     120.4   0.0     0.333
    102 Nick Young          PHI    SG    16    372    23.3    67.9     35.9     108.4  -0.1     0.332
    103 Kevin Garnett       BOS    PF    17    492    28.9    78.3     45.0     136.1  -0.1     0.331
    104 Luis Scola          PHO    PF    18    485    26.9    57.9     50.9     153.8  -0.1     0.331
    105 Greg Monroe         DET    C     19    632    33.3    55.5     88.0     268.0  -0.2     0.329
    106 Michael Beasley     PHO    SF    18    498    27.7    37.6     83.6     254.5  -0.3     0.328
    107 Andrei Kirilenko    MIN    SF    13    473    36.4    68.3     41.5     126.6  -0.2     0.328
    108 Jason Thompson      SAC    PF    16    489    30.6    57.4     29.4     89.8   -0.1     0.327
    109 Thabo Sefolosha     OKC    SG    18    499    27.7    82.6     27.4     84.4   -0.2     0.325
    110 DeMarcus Cousins    SAC    C     14    414    29.6    37.8     67.4     207.8  -0.5     0.324
    111 Thaddeus Young      PHI    SF    17    605    35.6    67       40.2     124.9  -0.3     0.322
    112 Marvin Williams     UTH    PF    16    445    27.8    75       27.9     87.0   -0.3     0.321
    113 Al Horford          ATL    C     13    475    36.5    77.2     38.0     119.8  -0.4     0.318
    114 Darius Morris       LAL    PG    15    334    22.3    53.1     37.1     117.5  -0.6     0.316
    115 David Lee           GSW    PF    17    636    37.4    73.2     62.1     197.7  -0.6     0.314
    116 Gordon Hayward      UTH    SG    19    537    28.3    71.1     54.4     173.3  -0.7     0.314
    117 Paul George         IND    SF    17    590    34.7    63.5     69.1     220.0  -0.8     0.314
    118 Metta World Peace   LAL    SF    17    606    35.6    67.6     49.8     158.9  -0.5     0.314
    119 Jeff Green          BOS    PF    17    369    21.7    57.1     35.6     113.6  -0.7     0.314
    120 Josh Smith          ATL    SF    13    455    35.0    62.6     60.5     193.3  -0.9     0.313
    121 Luol Deng           CHI    SF    15    610    40.7    68.3     55.2     176.8  -0.7     0.312
    122 Joakim Noah         CHI    C     15    585    39.0    64       49.2     158.0  -0.6     0.311
    123 Ronnie Brewer       NYK    SF    16    364    22.8    77.3     17.9     57.9   -0.4     0.310
    124 Jason Richardson    PHI    SG    13    378    29.1    69.4     26.6     86.1   -0.6     0.309
    125 Paul Millsap        UTH    PF    19    582    30.6    62.1     55.9     181.2  -0.8     0.309
    126 Chris Kaman         DAL    C     15    406    27.1    64.4     36.0     117.6  -0.8     0.306
    127 Pau Gasol           LAL    PF    17    592    34.8    72.6     50.6     166.0  -0.9     0.305
    128 Carlos Boozer       CHI    PF    15    443    29.5    59.1     45.6     149.8  -1.1     0.304
    129 Chris Bosh          MIA    C     15    507    33.8    75       33.4     109.8  -0.7     0.304
    130 Jae Crowder         DAL    SF    16    323    20.2    78       22.1     72.9   -0.7     0.303
    131 Courtney Lee        BOS    SG    17    422    24.8    69.8     27.7     91.9   -0.8     0.301
    132 Jared Dudley        PHO    SG    18    465    25.8    80.3     28.0     94.9   -0.8     0.295
    133 Andrea Bargnani     TOR    C     17    587    34.5    67.3     54.9     186.3  -1.3     0.295
    134 Robin Lopez         NOR    C     16    441    27.6    65.8     26.0     88.3   -0.9     0.294
    135 Ekpe Udoh           MIL    PF    16    355    22.2    55.9     17.8     60.9   -0.7     0.293
    136 Kyle Singler        DET    SF    19    519    27.3    78.9     24.2     84.0   -0.8     0.288
    137 Ryan Anderson       NOR    PF    16    525    32.8    70.5     32.7     116.6  -1.3     0.280
    138 Bradley Beal        WAS    SG    14    387    27.6    67.3     35.5     126.7  -1.9     0.280
    139 Markieff Morris     PHO    PF    18    389    21.6    61.2     30.0     107.5  -1.6     0.279
    140 Marcin Gortat       PHO    C     18    562    31.2    64.4     29.9     107.2  -1.1     0.279
    141 Tony Allen          MEM    SG    13    318    24.5    65.8     19.7     70.7   -1.3     0.278
    142 Kyle Korver         ATL    SG    13    381    29.3    93.6     16.6     59.7   -0.9     0.278
    143 Nikola Pekovic      MIN    C     14    409    29.2    60.3     30.1     108.4  -1.6     0.278
    144 Klay Thompson       GSW    SG    17    595    35.0    72.4     54.2     195.7  -2.0     0.277
    145 Shawn Marion        DAL    SF    12    348    29.0    84.4     23.5     84.9   -1.5     0.276
    146 Amir Johnson        TOR    PF    18    364    20.2    72       15.7     57.2   -1.0     0.274
    147 Richard Hamilton    CHI    SG    15    405    27.0    90.1     33.6     122.9  -2.0     0.273
    148 Dwight Howard       LAL    C     17    615    36.2    66.1     40.4     149.3  -1.6     0.270
    149 Marcus Morris       HOU    PF    16    331    20.7    63       19.0     70.4   -1.4     0.270
    150 Elton Brand         DAL    PF    16    358    22.4    65.9     21.0     78.4   -1.5     0.268
    151 Trevor Ariza        WAS    SF    14    360    25.7    69.8     26.7     100.8  -2.1     0.265
    152 Zaza Pachulia       ATL    PF    14    343    24.5    61.1     16.3     62.0   -1.4     0.263
    153 DeShawn Stevenson   ATL    SG    11    282    25.6    87.5     9.5      36.4   -1.0     0.261
    154 Zach Randolph       MEM    PF    15    543    36.2    53.7     35.7     140.5  -2.2     0.254
    155 Patrick Patterson   HOU    PF    15    453    30.2    75.8     21.9     87.0   -1.6     0.252
    156 J.J. Hickson        POR    C     17    485    28.5    49.3     23.6     95.1   -1.8     0.248
    157 Al.Farouq Aminu     NOR    SF    16    496    31.0    73.9     29.7     119.6  -2.3     0.248
    158 Larry Sanders       MIL    C     16    369    23.1    63.6     15.3     62.1   -1.5     0.247
    159 Ersan Ilyasova      MIL    SF    15    343    22.9    81       17.1     70.0   -1.9     0.244
    160 Nikola Vucevic      ORL    C     17    500    29.4    70.5     25.7     106.9  -2.1     0.241
    161 Brandon Bass        BOS    PF    17    471    27.7    71.2     19.0     78.9   -1.7     0.240
    162 Dante Cunningham    MIN    PF    15    334    22.3    70.4     11.6     48.7   -1.5     0.238
    163 Byron Mullens       CHA    C     16    537    33.6    68.8     30.4     127.7  -2.4     0.238
    164 Kevin Seraphin      WAS    PF    13    317    24.4    62       25.4     107.5  -3.6     0.236
    165 Corey Brewer        DEN    SF    18    412    22.9    77.5     23.1     97.9   -2.5     0.236
    166 Derrick Williams    MIN    PF    12    252    21.0    65       17.9     75.8   -3.2     0.236
    167 Jeffery Taylor      CHA    SF    15    374    24.9    78.3     14.3     60.7   -1.7     0.236
    168 Lavoy Allen         PHI    PF    17    390    22.9    62.2     14.8     63.3   -1.8     0.233
    169 Kosta Koufos        DEN    C     18    390    21.7    82       6.3      28.3   -0.9     0.223
    170 Jason Maxiell       DET    PF    19    512    26.9    71       17.8     80.0   -1.9     0.223
    171 Kenneth Faried      DEN    SF    18    550    30.6    54.2     18.5     83.6   -1.8     0.221
    172 DeAndre Jordan      LAC    C     17    440    25.9    59.5     14.7     67.4   -1.9     0.218
    173 Danny Green         SAS    SG    17    515    30.3    90.3     17.4     80.0   -1.9     0.217
    174 Kris Humphries      BKN    PF    16    394    24.6    72       9.1      41.8   -1.4     0.217
    175 Matt Barnes         LAC    SF    16    406    25.4    78       15.3     71.0   -2.2     0.215
    176 Taj Gibson          CHI    PF    15    317    21.1    80       11.8     55.7   -2.3     0.212
    177 Tyson Chandler      NYK    C     16    472    29.5    62.5     6.6      31.2   -0.9     0.212
    178 Emeka Okafor        WAS    C     14    308    22.0    67.5     11.0     52.4   -2.3     0.210
    179 Caron Butler        LAC    SF    16    394    24.6    90       14.0     68.2   -2.4     0.205
    180 Shane Battier       MIA    SF    13    346    26.6    93.3     7.1      34.5   -1.4     0.205
    181 Roy Hibbert         IND    C     17    495    29.1    46.5     28.2     138.9  -4.0     0.203
    182 Steve Novak         NYK    SF    16    381    23.8    90.9     7.8      38.3   -1.5     0.203
    183 Serge Ibaka         OKC    PF    18    561    31.2    75.9     15.7     78.6   -2.0     0.199
    184 Tyler Zeller        CLE    C     14    309    22.1    76.3     9.4      48.0   -2.3     0.197
    185 Dorell Wright       PHI    SF    17    373    21.9    85       14.5     74.0   -3.0     0.196
    186 Tristan Thompson    CLE    PF    18    551    30.6    56.9     18.5     95.0   -2.5     0.194
    187 Brendan Haywood     CHA    C     15    415    27.7    51.1     10.0     52.0   -1.9     0.192
    188 Gerald Green        IND    SF    17    387    22.8    72.9     14.3     76.7   -3.2     0.187
    189 Omer Asik           HOU    C     16    524    32.8    67.2     16.3     96.0   -3.1     0.170
    190 Derrick Favors      UTH    PF    17    388    22.8    54.5     12.3     77.6   -3.8     0.159
    191 Bismack Biyombo     CHA    PF    14    288    20.6    73.1     1.6      19.5   -1.8     0.083
    [/size]
     
    #81 durvasa, Dec 7, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2012
    1 person likes this.
  2. Allegro

    Allegro Member

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    Sorry, this is even worse. Your PLM% has 1.0 * AST_pure in the numerator and 1.8 * AST_pure in the denominator. So you are actually penalizing Lin for having more assists than Harden -- not a good thing to do for a statistic that purports to measure playmaking ability.


    I'll let you do it. After all, you're the one who's pushing a new definition of "playmaking", not me.
     
  3. rolyat93

    rolyat93 Contributing Member

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    Lin looked like hot dog **** tonight, and Harden was lights out. You're still at it, at least you're consistent though.:grin:
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Wrong, again. It seems you're having a little trouble with the math. I'll try to help.

    If X/Y = Z and S/T = U, where U > Z, then (X + S) / (Y + T) > Z.

    Substitute PLM for X, PLA for Y, PLM% for Z, 1*(additional assist) for S, 1.8*(additional assist) for T. U in this case will be 55%, which is greater than Z (PLM%) for every player in the league. With each additional assist, therefore, PLM% increases and plateaus at 55%.

    (proof)
    Proof by contradiction:

    Suppose: (X + S) / (Y + T) < Z

    Then:

    (X + TU) / (X/Z + T) < Z =>
    X + TU < X + TZ =>
    U < Z

    But we know that U > Z, therefore (X + S) / (Y + T) must be greater than Z.
     
    #84 durvasa, Dec 7, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2012
  5. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    I have an easier formula, and it's pretty straight forward.

    X=Lin
    Y=Harden
    Wins=W
    Lost=L

    W=X-Y
    L=Y-X.

    Using this formula, it would appear that we can conclusively agree that every win ratio is associated with Lin but not Harden, and every lost is associated with Harden but not Lin.
     
  6. bbjai

    bbjai Member

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    I find it extremely interesting that the stat has Kobe Bryant in the top 10 and basically the only SG in the group to make it anywhere near the top.

    I've never rated him as a play maker and I find it intriguing that no matter how Durvasa cuts the stats his still up the top. I'll have to look at him in a different way now.
     
  7. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Kobe has been extremely efficient in scoring off the dribble this season, and he's getting a lot of free throws as well. My metrics are giving him credit for that. He's not the ball distributor that others near the top are, but he's "making plays" in his own way.
     
  8. Allegro

    Allegro Member

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    A little snarky, aren't you?

    Your math is fine as far as it goes, but it doesn't go nearly far enough. An easy way to gain more insight is to use a little freshman calculus. Your formula for PLM% boils down to

    P = (A + X) / (1.8 * A + Y)

    where

    P = PLM% = PLM / PLA
    A = AST_pure = assists * 0.67
    X = the non-assist terms of PLM
    Y = the non-assist terms of PLA

    For the purposes of this argument, X and Y are constants. Now differentiate P by A, obtaining

    dP/dA = (Y - 1.8*X) / (1.8 * A + Y)^2

    where b^n means b raised to the n'th power. For large A,

    dP/dA is approximately C / A^2,

    where C is a constant equal to (Y - 1.8*X) / 1.8^2.

    Now my argument is obvious: for large A, each additional assist is worth less than the previous one, at a <b>quadratically declining rate</b>. Lin's assist advantage over Harden counts for little in your formula for PLM%. This is bad; you can't dismiss the better passer when you are attempting to measure playmaking ability.

    Therefore your formula is wrong.

    Feel free to fix your equations. I have little motivation to fix them for you, as you are the one who's pushing a new definition of "playmaker" , not me.
     
  9. Allegro

    Allegro Member

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    I forgot to mention that dP/dA was what I did first of all. I wanted to avoid bringing calculus into the discussion, so I tried to simplify things. My "A versus 1.8*A" argument may have gotten a little garbled, but my conclusions have not changed.
     
  10. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    To recap, here were the three criticisms you gave in this thread:

    (1) A made FG is valued more than an Assist
    (2) Formula does not account for how often a player has the ball in his hands
    (3) With every additional assist, the player's rating decreases.

    All were shown to either be mistaken (1 and 3) or addressed by an alternate formula.

    From the other thread, you've already stated that "playmaker" is synonymous with "passer". Until the formula is changed to reflect that point of view, I suppose you won't be satisfied. I set forth what I mean when I say "playmaker" in the first post, and I stand by that definition over "playmaker means passer". So, we should agree to disagree, as I see no point in arguing over semantics.

    <hr>
    Edit:

    OK, I'll go ahead and address this. PLM% is an efficiency metric. Similarly, each additional made field goal without a miss adds less and less to a player's FG%. And turning back to PLM%, one could just as well say that every additional made field goal or free throw also is "worth less than the previous one". Such an argument doesn't do much to support your contention that assists are being undervalued.
     
    #90 durvasa, Dec 8, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2012
  11. Allegro

    Allegro Member

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    I have an answer for you but I'm unmotivated to write it up. Comparing Lin to Harden is pointless now when it is painfully obvious. after last night's game against the Mavs, that Lin is being ruined intentionally.

    If he plays badly, he gets benched.
    If he plays well, he gets benched even more.

    There is no way out of this Catch-22 while Morey, McHale, and Lin are all on the team.
     
  12. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    Is this really PLAYmaking ability? A lot of people would take scoring out of the equation.
     
  13. SirKen

    SirKen Member

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    I stopped checking the numbers when I read his "definition" of playmaking. Of course, everyone is entitled to their opinion and in MY opinion, this is a wrong way of looking at things.
     
  14. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Good. That's exactly why I made sure to spell out what I mean by "playmaker" first, so if people disagree with it than they don't need to bother with the rest. Kevin Arnowitz of True Hoop appears to agree with my point of view that a playmaker is more than a passer, considering he just referred to Harden as the Rockets' "pure playmaker".
     

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