Billy Wags refused the deal with BoSox if they insisted on picking up his option: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseba.../mets_trade_reliever_billy_wagner_to_red_sox/ Boston agreed not to pick up his $8 million option for next season, Stringfellow said in an e-mail to The Associated Press. The Red Sox can still offer salary arbitration to Wagner in the offseason, Stringfellow said, meaning they would be entitled to draft picks as compensation if he signs elsewhere. How affordable do you think he will be? Personally I think he re-signs with Boston and he and Bard replace the (to-be) traded Papelbon. Just my guess.
Remember he didn't want to be traded to Boston in the first place but got "talked" into it. He is not an East Coast guy so money is not the reason he is turning it down. In fact I believe he even told the Sox he wouldn't accept if they picked up his option, so to answer your question I wouldn't go above 5 million with an team option in 2011 but no more then that. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4421684
I did not think that Boston could get a compensatory pick as they just traded for him. I could be wrong on that.