Cardinals have made the playoffs in 7 of the last 14 years. This decade, the Twins, A's and Angels have a 50+% playoff rate, but they didn't do nearly as well in the 90's. The Twins and A's have done it with miniscule payrolls.
But I'm also considering the next several years. I don't see how the Astros are going to escape mediocrity, looking at their current payroll and minor league system.
Sports are cyclical. A team will spend several years being mediocre only to turn it around through a rebuilding process. Even the Yankees had a downturn in the 1980s. From 1982 through 1994, the Yankees had zero playoff appearances. Look at them now. It is not exactly like we are the Royals. We have very good talent at A and AA. Within a few years, those guys will be here. Maybe at that point, we can turn this thing around.
I hope you are right. I just remember some posts on here from sites like Baseball Prospectus that said we have one of the worst farm systems in baseball.
You look at the "Lancaster three" of Seaton, Lyles, and I can;t remember the name of the third guy...they are all expected to be ML contributors at some point. You look at guys that are developing like Bogusevic, Castro, Manzella, Meier, and maybe Clemens. The farm is bad, but it is not completely bare.
One of the reasons the Rangers farm system has been so highly rated is the Mark Teixeira trade. They got four of the Braves best prospects at the time for Teixeira. If you're not a contending team and need to revamp your organization you have to trade anyone near 30 who has a fat contract. It's a waste of money to keep those type players unless they're a HOF'er type talent.
I wonder how these appearances correlate to when Hunsicker was still at the helm. Drayton may be a good owner when it comes to spending money, but he does have trouble with the consistent "win now" attitude.
Cardinals... but other than them it's the astros. Cards are like the Spurs of baseball... couple franchise cornerstones and continue to move role players in and out.
The Lexington rotation (Lyles, Seaton, Dydalewicz, Bono, Greenwalt) could all possibly be contributors in the next two to three seasons. I could see Lyles, Seaton and Bono jumping to AA Corpus next season depending on their work load this offseason in the AFL. Castro should be with the major league team next season. If Clemens gets moved back up to AA and AAA, it gives the Astros another option at catcher or a trading chip. Bogusevic needs to get some major league time to see if he is going to be a player or not. Ditto for Manzella (his big question is whether he'll hit or not). Giovanni Mier should be promoted aggressively to get him to the majors as long as he progresses through each level. Mier can field at a high level, like Manzella the question around him was whether he could hit or not. I'm not surprised that Round Rock could eventually be a farm team for the Rangers given their relationship with the Ryans. As far as the dismal season the Express are having, that is a testament to the poor drafting and player development the Astros have had over the past couple of years. I've said it before, but the 2007 draft was probably the worst draft ever for the Astros. Conversely the 2008 draft could go down as one of the best, with the haul of players that they drafted. McLane's problem seems to be that if he spends more on the major league budget, he cuts corners on player development, which is why the Astros are in the quandry they find themselves in currently. I would have no problem if the payroll were lowered and that money not being used was moved over to the draft and player development. The Astros need to draft a couple of players that fall because of signability, as they did with Seaton and Patton. I'm not saying that spending more money equates to better prospects and winning, but you have to take some risks with some picks that are considered more talented, i.e. more expensive.
It's only Rookie Greeneville but the funny thing is Mier is hitting pretty well while committing a bunch of errors (close to 20 in only 49 games). It seemed like every other night I checked the boxscore, he had committed an error or two. He's walking at a really good rate and showing more power than I expected this early. I heard some stuff shortly after the draft about him possibly being moved to 3rd at some point. It's too soon to know where he'll end up but that is a pretty crazy number of errors. I very much agree with this.
Minor League systems can change quickly. The Yankees and Red Sox both managed to improve very quickly. The Astros are one of those teams that dropped quickly. Largely because the teams prospects ended up not being any good rather than trading them away, and making numerous mistakes in the draft.
Here's a link to Brian McTaggart's mlb.com article about Jose Valverde wanting to test free agency. IMO this is a good thing for the Astros, if they offer arbitration and Valverde declines and signs elsewhere, we get extra picks (depending on which clubm inside the the first two rounds). If we resign him to the arbitration offer, we can trade him before the deadline and get some prospects for him. The important thing is not to let him walk away without getting some kind of compensation (prospects or picks).
I brought this up when I first started the Thread... From John Heyman's twitter (he is good, really good at these things) SI_JonHeyman wagner doing great audition in boston. best possibilities for next year: #braves, #astros, #cubs, #tigers, #nats (maybe) I really think enough time has passed that Uncle D would be open to bringing him back and Wagner is not dumb enough to be searching for mega millions off 2 injury riddled seasons at his age. Wagner at 2 seasons for 5 million each for be fine by me.
ugh. mcclane ought to adopt a new policy: if you're 30+, we're not interested. period. i don't care how cheap they are.
i tend to agree. i know we still have to field a legit team on the major league level...and wagner might be an inexpensive boost to fan interest...but don't we have some kid who could take a shot at the closer role if we lose valverde?
Thats the issue in my eyes...Gervacio intrigues me alot but do you seriously think they will go that route? I understand the fustration over getting over the hill guys but Wagner still throws mid 90s, which is saying something coming off major surgery, and again wouldn't cripple the team financially. Maybe its the Wagner fan in me but why not give him a shot at a really affordable price? Again full circle, who else do we have that could do the job besides Hawkins but then an 8th inning slot opens up which will probably get taken up by, you guessed it, a veteran like Brocail. Wagner/Hawkins/Sampson or Hawkins/Veteran/Sampson...your choice.
I don't really see that we do. Gervacio seems more like a set up man to me. Hawkins may be able to take the role, but he has been inconsistent. If we can get a really good deal on a guy like Wags, I'd be interested in listening.
Anyone know what would happen to the Astros's pick if they sign Wagner provided he's a type A like projected. I know it burned us in the past (see Woody Williams), but they stink this season. Oh well, I still don't want Wagner except for little more than minimum. Last thing this team needs is paying another aging vet millions for nothing more than a stop-gap which may or may not work out.
Astros first round pick is probably protected (I haven't actually looked, but I'm assuming they are one of the 15 worst teams this year) but they'd lose their second round pick.
I would be ok losing a 2nd rd pick because it appears Val will reject arbitration thus awarding us the pick right back. In reality I think thats why its not cut and dry, do you want a number of early round picks and stick Hawkins in the closer role or sign a Wagner type and keep what you already have. I never really minded losing a pick for Woody but giving him 5-6 million a year and also giving him a second year at his age coming from a pitchers park now that was stupid. Unfortunalty it became common place under Timmy P.
