Would it be wrong to point out that Adam Everett's OPS is currently .614 as a starter? Just noticed your sig. Sorry Brooks.
Well, he's not playing every day (Santiago has played almost as often at short) and the conditions are more comparable when he was playing half his games at MMP, like Mastui is now. Regardless, it's a joke. Matsui has been an utter disappointment, probably not too surprisingly.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html I don't know how accurate this is, but here's a supposed list of upcoming free agents at 3B: Third basemen Rich Aurilia (38) Adrian Beltre (31) Geoff Blum (37) Aaron Boone (37) Craig Counsell (39) Joe Crede (32) Pedro Feliz (35) - $5MM club option with a $500K buyout Chone Figgins (32) Nomar Garciaparra (36) Troy Glaus (33) Mike Lamb (34) Melvin Mora (38) - $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout Pablo Ozuna (35) Robb Quinlan (33) Juan Uribe (31)
I'd also suggest that while Tejada is better than Blum, he's not all that much better. Outside of one great month, Tejada has been about the same as Blum - but Blum could be had for a fraction of the price, and I would imagine he's better defensively given that Tejada hasn't really played the position and is aging. I think you'd be better off taking that $6MM-$8MM you'd have to pay Tejada and signing Blum for $1-2MM and using the rest elsewhere.
Let's say we sign Tejada for $7 million and Wandy, Pence and Bourn all get reasonable raises. In that case, we will have between $75 and 80 million devoted to 8 players (Berkman, Oswalt, Lee, Mastui, Bourn, Pence, Wandy, Tejada). Even if you get dirt cheap farm players to fill the remaining spots 17 spots on the 25-man roster, we'd be a worse team than this season with probably the second highest opening day payroll in team history. Remember, even guys the caliber of Brian Moehler and Latroy Hawkins demand a few million dollars each. I don't see any way we can fill all our holes through free agency without spending $130-140 million. It's safe to say that won't happen considering we've only gone over $100 million twice at any point in a season.
If you disagree, use this as a starting point and build a team with an opening day payroll between $90-100 million: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4ew-fwu2XT1aFlSKA4zQXA Here are our opening day payrolls for the last decade: http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/houston-astros.html
One move to fix all the Astros' problems: Fire Wade and hire Morey to run the Astros with whatever time he has left in his week. Even if it's only 10hrs/wk. Oh right, Drayton McClane is running the team. Yeah, my policy since Hunsicker left still stands--don't support the Astros monetarily in any fashion until McClane stops being the owner.
The still would put us in the top third of teams payroll wise. Not saying that you are doing this, but I find it funny when people use the words "only" and "$100 million" in the same sentence.
Again...two words...John McMullen. If you are too young to remember his ownership...it was awful. http://lmgtfy.com/?q=john+mcmullen
2010 Opening Day Payroll (w/ a resigned Tejada): Lee: $19 million Oswalt: $15 million Berkman: $14.5 million Matsui: $5.5 million Tejada: $7 million (not sure he can be signed that cheap but let's say it happens) Wandy: $5-7 million (making $2.6 right now, should get a big jump after arb) Bourn: $2-3 million (making about half a mil now, should get in this ballpark after arb) Pence: $2-3 million (similar case as Bourn) Hawkins: $4-5 million (making $3.5 now, having a stellar year, need him since we're not paying $10 mil or whatever for Valverde) Current estimated payroll: $76.5 million That's 9 players and we haven't even addressed SP after Roy and Wandy. We still need at least 16 more players. If you figure those remaining 16 spots will be filled by players making an average of $1 mil per, payroll is now estimated at $92.5 million. At $1 mil per, you're not making any splashes. You still have question marks at 3 through 5 in the rotation. You have Quintero or Towles at catcher. You still have Matsui doing his disappointing thing at 2nd. You've likely downgraded your bullpen with the loss of Valverde. Hawkins may be as good or better but to expect him to do that is a reach. He's not proven in that role. Regardless, I think this paints a picture of why it may be better to let Tejada walk. Even if he's willing to sign for $7 mil, which I'm not sure is a given, we have almost nothing left to spend on several other needs. Yes, Tejada would be an upgrade over other options we currently have for 3B or SS but the question is would you rather overpay for a subpar 3rd basemen or average SS (his offensive numbers, believe it or not, are about average among NL SSs this season and he's having a pretty good season) or do you want to spend that money toward a 3rd starter? Note: With both Bourn and Pence, you also have to consider it may be worth paying them a little extra in case they blow up. For now, let's just go with arb.
The use of "only" in this case was to point out how rarely we have exceeded that number, not how small the number is, not that you were saying I was doing otherwise. Just wanted that to be clear. Our owner is definitely a willing spender, relatively.
I really think the better idea is to see if we can trade Matsui for literally nothing just to get him out of here. That would wipe off $5.5M. You get a little payroll flexibility and can re-sign Miggy and use Maysonnet at 2B. Interesting...
Forgot to add - if there's any option to get rid of Matsui, I agree that the Astros should jump on it. The goal should not be getting a return - just getting out of the contract. You could sign any number of free agent scrubs for minimum salary and replace his production.
I like Lee, but damn his salary is just killing the Astros. Would be interesting to know how different this team would be if they hadn't gone after Lee and Tejada and whole host of other players that were stop gap measures (like Matsui). If they had kept guys like Luke Scott. You'd have Scott, Bourn and Pence in the outfield. They would have had the money to resign Wolf and could have 1-2 more players to fill either 3B or SS and bolster the rotation. If they had kept Zobrist. Basically, if they had embraced a youth movement instead of putting together a patchwork roster in hopes of staying competitive. You would have had: Berkman 1B Zobrist 2B Everett/FA SS Blum/Keppinger/FA 3B Scott LF Bourn CF Pence RF Quintero/Towles/Castro C Oswalt Wandy Wolf Norris Moehler/other Now obviously there's no point in dwelling in the past, and I don't think the team thought Zobrist would ever have a breakout year like he's had and who knows what we get from Castro or Towles (and Towles of course is injured right now). And you'd still have to figure out what to at 3B and SS. But you don't have aging, declining players in Lee, Tejada, Matsui, Pudge, Hampton, Ortiz. If they had just decided a long time ago to embrace their young guys, let 'em play and let the chips fall where they may....who knows if they'd be contenders...but you know what, I think they'd be plenty fun to watch.
Wags will not come cheap, that is why he did not want Boston to pick up his option. Also there is a real chance he will be on a strict pitch count and will not be able to play back to back days. Hawkins will probably not be offered arbitration. The best option is to spend NO MONEY on a closer and hope that one emerges from a bullpen by committee. It is a formula that has been used by a number of teams.
I think Wagner is crazy is he thinks anyone is going to pay him more than $8MM for a guy coming off arm surgery in this economy. I think Hawkins would be the one guy you'd almost definitely offer arbitration to. What's the downside? Worst case, he accepts and wins his arbitration case, gets paid maybe $4MM for a year, and the Astros solve their closer problem for a reason price. Other options are we negotiate a longer term deal, the Astros win the arb case and get him cheaper, or he declines and we get a draft pick or two.
IMO McLane saying he is going to evaluate the team from top to bottom is lip service at best. However, if he is indeed genuine with his statement then I hope he would decide to be smart this offseason with regards to offering arbitration to Valverde and Hawkins. IMO both players will more than likely be Type A free agents and will most likely sign with other teams (Valverde for more years and Hawkins for a chance to win). That will net the Astros a first rounder from the signing team (unless that team signs a higher rated FA, in which case we get their second rounder) and a supplemental first rounder. Best case scenario the Astros have three first round picks and two supplemental picks, giving them potentially five picks in the first 60 picks. While this would seem all good, it could get expensive quickly with signing that many guys high in the draft. However, my belief is that this is the only way the Astros can reach prominence again, to draft and develop talent. While the MLB draft is a crapshoot at best, you rely on scouts and your scouting director (Bobby Heck) to identify the best players available. I'm not advocating taking all the highest rated players, but the Astros could draft three prospects that will sign at or slightly below slot money and draft two that will demand more than slot because of their options (return to school, go to college, etc.). As for the big league club, I'd like to see the Astros either sign the players necessary to contend or bring up minor leaguers and see what they can do on the big league level. This will accomplish two things: 1) See what Manzella, Johnson, Bogusevic, Locke, etc. can do in the majors. 2) Open up spots to at AAA and AA to promote players. I have always felt the Astros were too slow to promote players, lets see some aggressive player movement and get these guys up to the majors by their early 20's. I do not believe this team can contend as it is currently constructed unless McLane is going to break the bank (which I don't see him doing). As much as I hate to see some of my favorite players go (Oswalt) I think you have to put him on the block and see what you can get for him. Any package of prospects remotely close to what the Rays got for Kazmir or what the Rangers got for Texeira would be wonderful, but I'd be happy with a blue-chip pitching prospect and a good position player (2nd or 3rd base). I'd even shop Wandy to see what I could get. Every team has lulls, it just happens to be our time. Pence and Bourn are still young and you could start building around these guys and you'd have veterans in Berkman and Lee to show the rookies the ropes. Ultimately I doubt McLane will do anything different. He'll do what it takes for AIS to sell more beer and food, reminding us that we need to support them team to make them champions. If he is going to spend money or cut payroll to save money, I hope he puts it towards player development and the draft. Hire a manager that understands what pitch counts, lineup cards and strategy are and how they are used to win ball games. Hire a pitching coach to help bring along the pitchers that will come up in the next few seasons. And for the love of God, hire a third base coach that can actually pay attention to where the ball is on the field. People will continue to stay away from the ball park to get away from a bad product. Rebuilding isn't always fun, but it is fun to have the hope that the young guys on the field will eventually get better and that better times are ahead, than watching an old slow team going through the motions.
Excellent post, Jared. I highlighted the point in bold because it touches on something I've wondered about. How much do we spend on draft & development compared to other teams around the league? Is there anywhere to find that data or approximate numbers?
