Daryl Morey was the first to adapt Pythagorean expectation to professional basketball while a researcher at STATS, Inc.. He found that using 13.91 for the exponents provided an acceptable model for predicting won-lost percentages. Daryl's "Modified Pythagorean Theorem" was first published in STATS Basketball Scoreboard, 1993-94. Win%= Points total e*(13.91)]/[Points Scored e*(13.91)+Points against e(13.91)] e* denoted as exponential power Rockets Points Total: 7839 (74 games) Points against: 7573 Expected W-L percentage : 0.618 Expected W-L: 45.7 wins and 28.3 losses I bet if you ask a stats geek like Morey, he will tell you by using our win-loss, Rockets have underperformed by about 5 wins.
I don't think everything is as perfect as fans like to say it is but I don't think it is as bad as everyone believes it is. Truth is likely somewhere in the middle.
McHale presided over an epic pathetic collapse last season. Sampson is a disgraced college coach Neither have had much success ever in their careers Morey is GM of the year but his coaches are anti-Moneyball. They are subjective, prone to bias coaches. This team has underperformed more than any other team in the league. I've seen every game and it's not youth, the coaching has single-handedly made bonehead moves that lost 6 or more games this year
Look at the Suns roster. It is arguably more talented than last years Rockets team and compare the records. Mchale is a good coach, and last night was a brilliant coaching desicion. He moves Smith in to the starting lineup, allows our bench players to experience some end of game situations that will have them prepared if there called upon in the playoffs. Maybe he has cost us a few games, but he is responsible for our successful season.
41-33 with the youngest roster in the NBA, and you're saying he's done NOTHING? We're about 2 weeks away from the playoffs, and he wants to give the reserves a shot at showing they can handle pressure. We got the win, our reserves got valuable playing time in a crunch time situation, and McHale showed his players that he is going to let them work their OWN way out of a problem. Players want nothing more than faith from their coach.....I think the coach deserves the same from the fans. This team is FINALLY relevant, and all people can do is find things to b**** and moan about.....it's annoying and frustrating.
UNDER-PERFORMED???? 41-33 with the core of the team playing twice as many minutes over the course of the season than they are used to, as well as dealing with pressure like they have never dealt with before....and you have the audacity to say they have UNDER-PERFORMED? I'm going to have an aneurysm from the idiocy in the GARM these days.
And yet he was almost willing to sacrifice the win. But when Harden's available, McHale plays him 40 mpg, so as to "get that win", and only sits him when he finally has no choice. But clearly he has a mandate to play the rooks.
To be fair, the Clippers are 49-26 and the Clippers fan (and some analysts) have wanted to get rid Vinny DelNegro for some time. While opinions of McHale vary on this board, there are very few people who think that McHale is a top tier coach. He's not Phil Jackson, Pops, Doc Rivers or even SVG, Nate MacMillan or JVG. I don't think that a coach that isn't a top tier coach is above reproach, or should get the benefit of the doubt. And even top tier coaches are questioned at time, but people give them the benefit of the doubt because they ARE top tier coaches. It's not unreasonable that when Fans see McHale do things that make you scratch your head, they wonder what a real top tier coach would do with this Roster. Do you *really* see a top tier coach getting the same record as McHale did from this group this season? This is kind of the point... a coach's job is to put their players in the best position to win games for you, but more importantly they should NOT lose games for you or make decisions that put you in the position to lose winning games. And that's why I believe McHale is average... in other words, at least 15-20 coaches in or out of the NBA that would get more wins out of this team's talent.
I just find it ironic that McHale thinks it's important for his BENCH PLAYERS to finish games, but not his STARTERS. That will make a lot of sense come playoff time.
Read kuku's post. This team is the most underperforming team in the entire league by pythagorean expected wins, at least by 5 wins. It isn't youth. Have you watched the games? I've seen every one. At least 6 games were lost where they had big leads and terrible coaching single handedly lost the game. Let me ask you a question. It tells how you see things. Do you think Vinny Del Negro is a good coach? Clippers are a #4 seed. The Clippers are a really good team that have a bad coach. Using your reasoning you would never able to tell whether a playoff team had a good coach or bad coach. McHale, Sampson, and Del Negro are BAD coaches on very talented teams. Another analogy are the late 90's Lakers that never put it together until Phil Jackson joined. With almost the same roster, you saw how a playoff Lakers team got much better. You are confusing 2 different things. The Rockets are a VERY talented team. Morey is exec of the year for a great job. That doesn't mean the coaching was great. In fact, the coaching underperformed based on how this team has produced this year. Some of this may be over your head if you are like McFail and don't use any advanced stats whatsoever and don't know what they even mean
I am not complaining but I think we did under-perform. We have a top 5 superstar in Harden, and three really good players in Lin, Asik and Parsons. We should have won 5 to 6 (or more) close games this season. On the other hand, I am content that we are finally in the playoff this year. We reached our goal discussed in the beginning of the season.
That research by Morey is a little dated, and he may have adjusted his findings as he grew as a statistician/analyst. I haven;t read up on it, so I couldn't tell you for sure. Also, I don't believe there are publicly available advanced metrics available that account for youth, inexperience, roster turnover, and lack of chemistry. Sure there were plenty of games that were within reach--which if we had won we'd be in great shape-- but I believe that's more a function of youth rather than inept coaching. Not saying there were no coaching blunders during the year, but more experienced teams wouldn't of faltered.
Yes, I agree, Asik and Lin should finish more games in the future to build their confidence and learning experience. Hello McHale, they are the future of Rockets and should be be the priority not the bench players.
Choose your own adventure. (1) The Houston Texans have a 20 point lead with 7 minutes left in the game. They are fighting for the division title. Kubiak decides to give JJ Watt, Brian Cushing and Jonathan Joseph a rest and lets the reserves play. The Cleveland Browns get ball and drive right down the field and score a touchdown with barely any time off the clock. The Browns get the onside kick and drives right down the field and scores another touchdown. 6 point game. The Browns kick it deeps. The Texans run the ball 3 straight times for no gain and the Browns call 3 straight timeouts. Punt. The Browns have the ball at their 40 yard line with 2 minutes left in the game. Do you... (a) Keep the reserve Texans defensive players who just gave up 2 touchdowns in the game so that they can gain experience for the playoffs? (b) Put in Watt, Cushing and Joseph--the best players you have--and just try to win the damn game. (But stupid OP, Asik and Lin are nowhere near the Texans guys' level!) Last night, all I know is Asik was playing like a man possessed and Lin was carving up the Orlando defense. (2) The Baltimore Orioles are fighting for a wild card spot. They have a 5 run lead in the 9th inning. The Cleveland Indians are at bat. Pedro Strop is in for the Orioles and proceeds to give up 3 consecutive first-pitch singles and then a first-pitch home run. It is now a 1 run game. Jim Johnson is up in the bullpen for the Orioles but hasn't even warmed up because of the speed in which the Indians scored. Do you... (a) Leave Pedro Strop in the game so that he can gain experience for the playoffs? (b) Bring in Jim Johnson, even though he hasn't really warmed up, because he is your closer and you just want to win the damn game. Whichever you choose, it should not be results oriented. A good decision before the end of a game remains a good decision. And a bad decision remains a bad one. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. To think otherwise is just completely myopic and leads to mediocrity. If I double down on a 11 against a dealer showing 6 and then draw a 3 while the dealer turns over an ace--that wasn't a bad decision. If I stand on a 12 with the dealer showing a 10 and the dealer ends up busting--that wasn't a good decision.
I think McHale has done a good job this season but last night's decision was a mistake. 5 point lead with 2 minutes left, the Magic had possession of the ball and all the momentum. Luckily it didn't cost a win. Don't know how you guys can explain the decision making when every win is important especially since a playoff spot hasn't been clinched. Not the best time to be trying to get experience for your bench and taking chances during a playoff race if last season's collapse was any indication. Really, all this really showed me is that McHale doesn't think there is much difference between the starters and the bench outside of Harden and Parsons. But I already knew that from watching his substitutions this year.
I think your assessment is fair. I also think McHale is an average to above-average coach. But the McHale bashing on this board is beyond ridiculous. Certain group of people blame everything on McHale and the coaching staff. That is unfair. For example, just on this page posters use some kind of nerdy stats (yeah, Morey is a nerd...) to show that Rox are underperformed by at least 5 wins. Let's just pretend that stat is correct. What is the reason we're underperforming? Quote: So why can't it be youth and inexperience? Why does it have to be coaching that cost us games? By the same token, how about those wins in which good coaching and subs played a big part? I bet nobody is keeping count on those.
Honestly this is a good tactic. I'm not sure what the OP is getting all crazy for. First of all, we got a win, so from just the results perspective you have nothing to complain about. Secondly, the strategy of rewarding the guys on the court is correct as well. Sure we're in a playoff push but honestly there's very little chance we miss the playoffs at this point. What we need to do is prepare the guys for the playoff games, and this is a part of that. The Starters already have a lot of experience playing in games that count, hello they are called STARTERS for a reason. What Mchale needs to do now is to identify which bench players would fit in his rotations for the playoffs, and now's the time to do that, not when we're facing a playoff team already. It's a chance for him to evaluate which bench guy he can rely on , and a chance for the bench to get some PT under their belt. There's nothing wrong with this, I'd be more concerned if he continued to run the starters into the ground with 40 mins PT each. The more the Starters sit, the better their health come playoff time.
