One theory is that the Rove folks who run McCain's campaign are going to try to win another election by suppressing the independents with negative ads until they get disgusted and don't vote. Then they will energize the conservative base with Palin. They hope to queak through again.
This is stating the obvious and it's no longer just a theory. I've already been telling people who are "fed up" with the process and want to stay home, to not fall victim to the negativism from the Republican vomit machine. The GOP doesn't want an honest airing of issues that affect the country going forward. They want a replay of the 2004 electoral sewage pond.
That's like the pot calling the kettle black. Both parties are shamefully guilty, with neither more guilty than the other.
When it comes to presidential politics, you are dead wrong. 2004 was beyond disgraceful. Even some very right-wing people I know were disgusted at their party's tactics that year.
The latest Zogby poll shows McCain/Palin up by 2 percentage points over Obama/Biden. Guess this completes negates Obama's "historic speech" (errr...mud-slinging flop)
um it's due to the newness of palin. she has a great personal story (nobody can deny that). so the first impression is great. obviously it will help in the polls. biden was a conventional pick so obviously no bounce was expected. wait till EVERYBODY knows more about the policies of mccain and how it totally aligns with mccain and so socially conservative, other than conservatives, not a lot will like her.
Except we are coming off a monumental speech by Obama and an energized Democratic Convention . People on this board was predicting 10,12,15 pt lead by the end of the convention. OOPS!
I seem to remember people on here predicting 6 to 8 point bounces. The GOP was the only one predicting a 15 point bounce, so that they could raise expectations beyond reality.
Look at how the polling went before the convention...Gallup said the race was tied. http://www.gallup.com/poll/109792/Gallup-Daily-Race-Tied-Democratic-Convention-Starts.aspx The first three days of the convention there was no bounce. http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/Gallup-Daily-Bounce-Obama-Post-Biden-Tracking.aspx Then we finally see an 8pt lead from Gallup after Obama's speech to then today's poll at 6pts. http://www.gallup.com/poll/109903/Gallup-Daily-ObamaBiden-Ticket-Leads-Points.aspx As Gallup has noted in recent weeks, both the vice presidential selections and the national conventions have historically produced small bumps in support for the presidential candidates associated with those events (on the order of about five percentage points for each). However, this year, Obama's announcement of Joe Biden as his running mate produced no immediate increase in support for Obama in a one-night USA Today/Gallup reaction poll. That doesn't sound too good for a party that had such a wonderful convention full of 80,000 screaming Obama fans, fireworks, 38 Million viewers and a speech for the ages.
So again, where is the spiral downward? (By the way - there WAS a bounce the first three days of the convention - the polls went from -2, to +1, to +6, to +8. You're saying a two point drop - which is statistically insignifcant - is a downward spiral? Do you just make stuff up?
Not the bounce they expected and many on this board anticipated. Ok...I'll correct myself... the beginning of a downward spiral There you happy?
Where do you have any info on what bounce the campaign expected? The two conventions have never been so close together, and a VP has never been announced the day after the previous convention, so the "convention bounce" was mixed with a "VP bounce" and really, we have no idea what the interaction was there. He got an 9-pt bounce - that was plenty. But the important thing about the convention bounce is that it ultimately doesn't matter - within 30 days, both convention bounces tend to disappear - that's why they are called bounces: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html All these polling agencies have said to take the current polling with a grain of salt because there is so much going on between the VP picks and the conventions - all of which have never been compressed into such a small time frame. They say polls won't really be useful until next weekend at the very least, so in response to that, you make a poll right in the middle of this a super-relevant poll that shows a huge problem for Obama (despite a 6pt lead). Nice. So a one-day two-point decline - something that's been happening every few days for the past three months as candidates bounce up and down is the beginning of a downward spiral?
all i know right now obama is leading the electoral vote of around 260 to 220 and leading in some key swinging states
I'm pretty shocked he picked Palin who has no experience with the international affairs (from what I've read) It's a little bit scary to consider the idea she will run our country if McCain passes away during his term. Even though she is a woman, there is NO way I will vote for them. Yes, I wanted a woman president but not her...Hillary Clinton has wayy more experience than her and I would have voted for her. Obama doesn't have that much experience either... sigh, I don't know if I will vote this year.
