McCain and Obama in "dead heat"

Are you saying the state by state polls now are pretty much going to reflect the polls in November?

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

 

If you remove the possibility of collapse by either candidate from the equation, maybe so. The national polls are completely worthless except to track trends.

I might wait until mid/late August, but I'm going to use one of the several websites to set up my own electoral predictor. When you get down to it, after locking in the solid red and solid blue states, there should only be about 10-12 states left to follow to determine the election. I'm not ready to do that yet and everything is in a big flux right now. Another 4-6 weeks of punching each other and things should settle down. I think some important swings could take place before the conventions.

 

It's amazing how Obama has the Money(3 to 1 over McCain), the grass-roots machine, the charisma, and some really good Kool-Aid, yet he can't close the deal on McCain! It really surprises me that this race is this close. McCain shouldn't even be in the ballpark yet Obama continues to be like many of the Democratic candidates of the past - implode his own campaign come General election time! It's really quite funny to see Obama stay so close in this race to McCain! He should be BLOWING McCain AWAY!

 

Obama peaked in February and is now being forced upon voters who are increasingly skeptical of his character, his associations, his judgment, and his strength. It's definitely no surprise to me why he is trailing John Doe Democrat by 10 points...

 

Does this mean you are going to accept the wager with Sam, or are you going to continue to be all talk?

 

Its a good thing you weren't running Reagan's 1980 campaign or GH Bush's 1988 campaign both of which were trailing at this time in those elections.

 

I wish Obama would quit dithering. If he continues to produce a weak showing compared to expectations, the Democratic superdelegates might turn on him and slip Hillary into the top spot. Remember, Hillary Hemlock never released her delegates. Get it in gear, Obama!

 

Didn't see this posted...

 

Both of them faced an incredibly different electoral climate and both of them had the potential to significantly outspend their opposition.