Oh boy, Sam, by the sound of that angry post, filled with the foul stench of a curse word, you are not in good spirits! Could it be because BackTrack Obama is not faring as well as you had hoped at this point? Could it be that his own website has received 20,000+ complaints from people that voted for him over the flip-flops on key issues? Could it be that over 2 million Hillary supporters are vowing not to vote for him? Could it be because his negatives are higher than McCains, and his favorables are lower? We haven't even hit SwiftBoat Season, Sam, and things are already spiralling out of your candidate's control. Well, that must feel like someone just pee'd in your mochachino!
Trader_Jorge - it is interesting to see you in this thread. YOu have said many times that McCain will be an easy victor in the election. I have tried many times to make you commit to this statement by means of a friendly wager. YOu have yet to honor this commitment. Do you plan on honoring it? Or were you just full of sh-t earlier? Guessing the latter?
I'd consider someone who wants to be something they are not, or cannot be, to be unattractive as a candidate. I don't believe that about Edwards anyway, the point was that he was a white man who couldn't challenge Obama. How many points is Obama up on McCain with the black vote? Oh wait, blacks are heavily democratic anyway. Why? I'd like to see a legitimate black republican get the nomination, and see where this goes. I could vote for a black man, in that case.
I would completely agree with Batman's analysis of the election if the election were held in August. I don't think polls now are worth much now in July with neither party having their convention yet. I think it was Reagan who said campaigning doesn't start until Labor Day so we will see how things play out in the fall. Also I would caution Obama supporters for being so confident regarding victory now as we saw how early overconfidence crippled the Clinton campaign and almost ended the McCain campaign.
McCain is moving to the center, a common ploy at this stage of the political game. His has been in his career one of the most "Democratic" Republicans in the Congress. Look at his voting record. He is clearly pro-choice for example. Most members of Congress voted for the war in Iraq.
Well, I am good for two out of three. McCain is moving to the center. So is Obama. Surely you don't deny that. I am wrong on the the pro-choice thing. He has voted pro-choice on a few occasions and has made some public statements to that effect, but I didn't know he had taken a pledge (the first of this year) to support the pro life position. Most members of Congress did vote for the Iraq war including many liberals. Incidently, I have always and still do oppose the war.
I could be wrong, but I heard somewhere that Carter led Reagan by doubledigits well into September in 1980. I agree that polls today are somewhere close to worthless.
IIRC, in 1980, Carter and Reagan were neck and neck (seemingly) to the last couple of weeks. Then the bottom fell out for Carter. I think the same thing could happen to either candidate this year, which is why the overconfidence of some Obama partisans is misguided. There is a lot of stuff that could become an issue late and throw it either way. In fact, I'll go on record now and say if they are still virtually tied the last part of October that McCain will beat Obama. It would be interesting watching the Dems "slash their wrists" and "jump off buildings" if Obama loses. solid, I suggest you read up on McCain's history. He's a conservative Republican with a very solid pro-life voting record. But he's also a maverick (instead of a team player) who has delighted in poking people in the eye over the years. This has made him a lot of enemies on the right-wing. But that doesn't make him a "Democratic" Republican at all. You only hear about it when he steps out of line. Of course both guys are moving to the center. That's old news.
I certainly concede that it is impossible to predict a November election in July; I'm just going on what we've got so far just like everybody else. I maintain though that it's even sillier to predict a close race than to predict an easy Obama win based on the evidence we currently have at hand. The Carter-Reagan comparison is a great one though. Carter was immensely unpopular, as Bush is now, but he stayed very close in the polls until the debates. Most people would say that's because, while Americans wanted to kick Carter out of office, Reagan was too unknown to them. Once he held his own in a debate, they swarmed to him. That comparison favors Obama, clearly. He is the unknown quantity here. And, to the degree anything about McCain is currently unknown, it's largely unfavorable stuff (with the general population). It's not surprising to me at all that someone's posting that he's pro-choice. McCain has just about a 100% pro life voting record. When that's known, he'll lose a point or two among women. When they debate, all eyes will be on Obama. If he stumbles, especially on foreign policy/nat'l security, it's a race. If he sails through unshaken and looks like a safe enough choice, he'll get a boost like Reagan did and possibly in similar scope.
I don't hate the troops, I have friends there. I hate that they are there in harms way. And they wouldn't be if better choices had been made by our political leaders.
Turn on your sarcasm meter. And I always love the "I have friends....." comeback. It is usually more golden in a debate over racism.
Well, I actually do. A former employee of mine, a son of a friend that did some work for me on several occasions, and others. Why is that so questionable. Many people have relatives and friends there?
Heck, you couldn't even predict the 2004 election on the day OF the election -- totally whiffing on the outcome. Keep on making those self-righteous prognostications, friendo...
