Mathematical Chances of the Rockets picks being something

totally agree

 

Nice post! Here's a good read about Lior from December. I hope he gets a shot at making the team in the not too distant future.


December 30, 2008
Few, if any, Euroleague players have performed as well in the month of December as Maccabi Tel Aviv's promising young forward Lior Eliyahu. After a fast start in both domestic and international play, the former Houston second-round pick hit a slump in November, spending more time on the bench in foul trouble than on the court helping his team battle through the toughest part of their Group A schedule. The turmoil the team suffered on the bench—replacing head coach Effi Birnbaum and his erratic rotations with legendary Pini Gershon—also played a large part in his struggles. Fortunately for Maccabi, Eliyahu has managed to regain the confidence of the new coaching staff, and the result has been three straight Euroleague wins, highlighted by three straight double-doubles from Eliyahu, to go along with back-to-back twenty point outings in the Israeli Premier League.

After taking a step back last season in terms of playing time and production, the 23 year old forward has made the most of his opportunities this year. Despite not having the physical strength to be a major contributor on the block, or having the jump shot to be an efficient perimeter scorer, Eliyahu has used the tremendous length and athleticism advantage he enjoys over many of his match ups to effectively compensate for his lack of a true position. He’s scoring 15 points per game (6th best) in the Euroleague in just 26 minutes, grabbing over 7 rebounds (ranking 9th) and dishing out an impressive 2.4 assists (2nd amongst power forwards). Perhaps most startling is the fact that he’s shooting a ridiculous 68% from the field, good for third best in the Euroleague.

There's a lot to like about the way Eliyahu has been playing on the offensive end, as he has done a tremendous job not only getting open for easy baskets around the rim, but also creating his own looks from in close off the dribble. He's always been very good at moving without the ball, a characteristic that lets him take advantage of his high-effort level to be productive. In his last five games, he's done a great job running the pick and roll, timing his cuts from the high-post to the basket, and getting up the floor in transition.

When Eliyahu isn't getting easy looks at the rim, he has shown the athleticism and ball-handling ability to get to the rim against most defenders. Eliyahu has notoriously settled for a lot of floaters in the lane, and while he doesn't always take his drives all the way to the rim, he has been much more aggressive once he has his man on his hip. He shows a nice step-back spin-move over his right shoulder and uses a sweeping half-hook over his left that allows him to get his shot off with little trouble. While he takes very few jump shots, his ability to create space for mid-to-short-range shots often allows him to compensate for that weakness. His touch in the post is nothing short of amazing, as he not only has huge hands that help him steer the ball exactly toward his target, but is also extremely fluid and coordinated (and highly unorthodox) with his moves. His feel for putting the ball in the net is clearly in an elite category amongst European big men.

Despite adding a few moves to his repertoire, Eliyahu's ball-handling still leaves something to be desired, particularly with his left hand. His new found aggressiveness had made him a bit more turnover prone than he has been in the past, and he could stand to be more controlled with the ball when he attacks the rim.

The most impressive aspect of Eliyahu's recent performances has been his ability to finish the looks he creates for himself. His length and leaping ability make him a solid finisher at the rim, but he still struggles with contact to some extent. He often looks to avoid contact by taking inside shots moving away from the rim, but manages to make such shots with surprising success. In recent games against Air Avellino and Bnei Hasharon, more than half of Eliyahu's shot attempts came on swooping drives that he finished moving away the basket once he was met with a defender at the rim. For a player that gets as many looks around the basket as Eliyahu does, added physical strength and improved free throw shooting could make him that much more efficient; something that isn't easy for a player shooting almost 70% from the field. Continuing to work on his jump-shot and free throw stroke could pay huge dividends from him down the road considering how good of a scorer he already is.

The biggest improvement to Eliyahu's defensive game has also paid dividends for him on the offensive end. He has been rebounding at a significantly higher rate in December then he was in the early-going, and his meteoric rise in PER can be largely attributed to his improved effort on the glass. He's shown a willingness to rebound outside of his area, and has been using his length and athleticism to much greater extent than he used to. While he is still boxing out well, the aggressiveness he has shown when pursuing a missed shot off the rim has improved dramatically (to the tune of three straight games of 10 of more rebounds in Euroleague play and a 17 rebound effort against Cibona). He has gotten quite a few tip ins recently, and is doing a good job filling the lane behind his teammates when they take shots around the basket.

Eliyahu's length and lateral quickness should theoretically give him the ability to effectively defend the perimeter very effectively, but unfortunately this has been an area he’s struggled in throughout his career. His awareness, focus and intensity are often very lacking on this end, and his lack of physical toughness has often been criticized. Eliyahu doesn't offer much as a shot blocker, usually not getting into position quickly enough to contest shots at the rim. He's also prone to fouling in the post, so his move to playing more on the perimeter defensively has certainly been a major contributor to his increased playing time.

Despite not showing any incredible new wrinkles in the areas that he has historically struggled in, Eliyahu's recent play has been nothing short of remarkable. Last season seemed to temper some of Houston's enthusiasm toward adding him to their roster, but if he continues to play at such a high level, he could very well be in the mix for a spot on the opening-day roster in 2009. Eliyahu doesn't have the tools to be a consistent contributor on the NBA yet, but he's still young, and has become very good at using the tools that he does have, which are, albeit unconventional, actually very unique. His ability to run the floor, move off the ball, pass unselfishly, rebound the ball, and make shots around the rim while defended could, at the least, make him an asset in trade negotiations.
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http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Lior-Eliyahu-449/

 

So basically a 40 percent chance that one of them will become a decent player. I think that still makes it a pretty good investment. There aren't any salary/contract obligations with 2nd rounders right?

 

Basing mathematical probabilities based on the exact pick at which a player is taken from year to year is a ridiculous exercise in futility. There are myriad factors that go into those picks, from positional needs to teams' competitive status to (in)competent management.

In order to get a better idea of the types of players drafted where the Rockets' current draft picks were taken, one should look at the RANGE of picks in which they were taken. Daryl Morey has referred numerous times (both in this year's draft and in prior drafts) to players "in the 25-45 range". Most years, there is not a significant difference in talent available at #25 and #45. However, given the guaranteed contracts offered to first rounders, more guys in the 25-30 range initially stick in the league instead of getting waived. Also, the other factors above determine whether a player will make a team and whether he will stick in the league in the mid-term.

Here's a look at some notable players (including some international guys who are highly thought of by NBA GMs) taken in the 25-45 range over the past few years who have had fairly decent careers (remember, just because some of these guys are overpaid doesn't mean they are/were not still NBA-caliber players):

2008:
Nicolas Batum (25), George Hill (26), Darrell Arthur (27), Donte Greene (28), Nikola Pekovic (31), Mario Chalmers (34), DeAndre Jordan (35), Omer Asik (36), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (37), Chris Douglas-Roberts (40), Goran Dragic (45)

2007:
Aaron Brooks (26), Arron Afflalo (27), Tiago Splitter (28), Petteri Koponen (30), Carl Landry (31), Glen Davis (35), Kyrylo Fesenko (38)

2006:
Shannon Brown (25), Jordan Farmar (26), Mardy Collins (29), Craig Smith (36), Daniel Gibson (42)

2005:
Jason Maxiell (26), Linas Kleiza (27), David Lee (29), C.J. Miles (34), Ersan Ilyasova (36), Ronny Turiaf (37), Von Wafer (39), Monta Ellis (40), Louis Williams (45)

2004:
Kevin Martin (26), Sasha Vujacic (27), Beno Udrih (28), Anderson Varejao (30), Royal Ivey (37), Chris Duhon (38), Trevor Ariza (43)

2003:
Carlos Delfino (25), Kendrick Perkins (27), Leandro Barbosa (28), Josh Howard (29), Jason Kapono (31), Luke Walton (32), Sofoklis Schortsanitis (34), Steve Blake (38), Willie Green (41), Zaza Pachulia (42), Keith Bogans (43), Matt Bonner (45)

2002:
John Salmons (26), Roger Mason, Jr. (31), Dan Gadzuric (34), Carlos Boozer (35), Milos Vujanic (36), David Andersen (37), Juan Carlos Navarro (40), Ronald "Flip" Murray (42)

2001:
Gerald Wallace (25), Samuel Dalembert (26), Jamaal Tinsley (27), Tony Parker (28), Trenton Hassell (29), Gilbert Arenas (30), Brian Scalabrine (34), Mehmet Okur (37), Earl Watson (39), Bobby Simmons (41)

2000:
Jake Tsakalidis (25), Primoz Brezec (27), Mark Madsen (29), Marko Jaric (30), Jake Voskuhl (33), Eddie House (37), Eduardo Najera (38), Michael Redd (43), Brian Cardinal (44)

I could keep going, but I won't. My point is, there are plenty of quality NBA players to be found in the 25-45 range. Especially when those players are being selected by one of the top front offices in the league. I think that Jermaine Taylor, Sergio Llull and Chase Budinger all have a distinct chance of becoming quality NBA players.

 

BimaThug, i agree with what u say about the 25-45 player range, but thats why you cant take guys and not expect them to be productive or throw away picks. the salary structure really allows guys in the later part to be just as valuable as any pick you make. People want to say you should move down so you dont have the 3 year guarantee, but what if the guy is really good? Look at that list and tell me it wasnt good to have those guys on that 1 extra rookie yr vs hitting free agency.

 

Agreed. Sometimes it seems like teams "throw away" picks in the 31-45 range, when that range often produces some quality players. I think this is why Daryl Morey and Les Alexander try to acquire picks in this range every year. The return on investment is probably disproportionately high on those picks. Heck, the #32, #34 and #44 picks "only" cost $6M cash (which won't count against the cap or the luxury tax) plus a future second rounder that will likely be in the 50s. Plus, if any one or more of those guys helps the Rockets win 2-3 more games than they otherwise would have won next year, then they almost pay for themselves in the first year by way of increased team revenues (let alone their return on investment over the course of their entire Rocket careers).

As for your point about WANTING the 3rd year on the first round rookie scale contracts, I still think having a high second rounder provides better financial and roster flexibility. Keep in mind that many teams have now taken to using a portion of their MLE to sign high second rounders to longer term contracts. In exchange for a slightly higher salary than the league minimum (but still less than a late first rounder's salary), a high second rounder will often agree to give his team a third year team option. This gives the team immense flexibility when making roster decisions.

An issue that is becoming more and more prevalent lately relates to young foreign players who are drafted but intend to play overseas for a couple of years after being drafted. Most of the better players WANT to be picked in the second round, since they will not be locked into the smaller rookie scale amounts of the late first round. Instead, they can develop overseas and, if they become stars, they can come over to the NBA and sign for some (or all) of the MLE. Look at Luis Scola. He was an international superstar. It is much less likely that he EVER comes to the NBA if he were locked into a contract that paid him no more than ~$930k, instead of the 3 yr/$10M contract he got with the Rockets. This is also why the Spurs will have a hard time bringing Tiago Splitter (a former #28 pick) over from Europe.

Another difference between first round rookie scale contracts and second round pick "MLE contracts" is that first round picks must have their 3rd and 4th year team options picked up by October 1 leading into the season before their 2nd and 3rd year, respectively. On the other hand, second rounders with "MLE contracts" can have their team options exercised just a few months before the team option year. This gives the team a more extended look at determining whether the young player is worth keeping the following year.

Case in point: The Charlotte Bobcats had to make a decision last summer on whether to exercise its team option on Adam Morrison for 2009-10, his fourth year (mind you, at a $5.3M salary). Morrison was coming off his second year, during which he suffered a major season-ending injury. The Bobcats had no idea what to expect from Morrison in 2008-09, but they had to make a decision on 2009-10 a full year in advance. Do you think the Bobcats/Lakers would be exercising that $5.3M team option THIS summer? I don't think so. But had this been a second round pick "MLE contract", this would never have been an issue. I know, Morrison was a high lottery pick, but you get my point.

Bottom line: A high second round pick is STILL better than a late first rounder, so long as their are a number of players in that range that a team covets. The lower salary, fewer guaranteed years, and roster/contract flexibility (especially using the MLE) provides a team with more options than if it were stuck with a late first rounder.

 

That can be solved by giving a 3rd year team option. It gives teams more roster flexibility, if the guy doesn't pan out. If they really want to keep the guy, the team can exercise the team option.