Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

Maybe they signed Goodrum to play CF until Meyers gets back. Pena stays in AAA until they secure another year of control then comes up as a super utility guy to replace Diaz who is a pending free agent. What a luxury having another starting caliber SS if Correa is ever injured…

 

I’ll give you a hint… What was Correa’s celebration when he hit the walk-off HR vs Yankees Game 2 of ALCS in 2019?

 

Ahh, makes sense

 

Diaz could get traded I imagine in that scenario. He’s going to make what 6 or 7 in arbitration? If correa gets a $40 million type deal they are probably looking to cut some salary somewhere as that would put us right up against the line.

 

Dude, no.

 

almost 88k followers

 

That tweet from Heyman was about the most predictable thing ever. He is the errand boy for Boras.

Translation....haven't squeezed enough dollars out of Crane yet. Pretending other teams are interested even though the Yankees are out and Cubs said they wouldn't do the big contract for Correa.

 

There's no QO anymore. So if Correa's looking for short term deals and entering FA in a couple of years, anyone can offer that now without worrying about losing a pick, and that could bring some teams back in the mix.

It's not like the media is going to have more info than the Astros or that they are using public tweets to figure out what to offer Correa. Posting a tweet saying other teams are interested isn't going to change what the Astros are doing.

Dodgers, for example, could offer him the Trevor Bauer type deal - short high value contract with opt-outs every year.

 

QO elimination only happens once international draft is instituted... so not quite yet.

 

What happens to Peña once CC stays? Bait for a starting pitcher?

 

Depends. If Carlos signs a one year deal or a longer term deal with an opt out after 1 year you keep Pena.

 

There is a fine line here- if money was Correa's prime motivator, he would accepted Detroit's offer. Correa wants to come back. Between the market, what Correa is seeking and what Crane is comfortable with, there is a deal to be made. Lowering the offer would be stupid.

 

I guess it depends on the contract Correa gets. If it's a 1 year deal or he has an opt out clause within the 1st 2 years you keep Pena. If it's a multi year deal and his opt out is after 3 years, perhaps trade bait. I wonder what kind of value Pena has around the league.
*if Pena is traded, develop Leon at SS only. No more OF for him.

 

Hope not. Pena, Leon go a long way in replacing Diaz, Gurriel or Brantley next winter. Very nice depth too have available.

 

Close your eyes, and you can picture agent Scott Boras at the news conference, explaining why Carlos Correa signed a one-year, $45 million free-agent contract to return to the Astros.

“I didn’t begin representing Carlos until January, in the middle of the owners’ lockout,” Boras might say. “We were left with too short a timetable, too few shortstop openings. By next offseason the industry will be in a much more robust state, and Carlos still will be the best and youngest shortstop on the market. In the meantime, Carlos will be like a bird rejoining his flock, and who knows what kind of nest he might build?”

Ah yes, that glorious Boras daily double, a pun and a pillow contract! Mind you, I’ll believe Correa will sign a one-year deal when I see it. He’s only 27, and coming off his best season. Team executives know better than to bet against Boras — they’ve all seen him on numerous occasions pull monster deals seemingly out of nowhere.

The Astros’ best offer to Correa was five years, $160 million in November, but on Sunday night owner Jim Crane told Mark Berman of Fox 26 Houston, “Our team has reached out to his agent. We’re in discussions.” Crane is highly unlikely to double his last offer to Correa or go higher. But on a shorter deal, why wouldn’t he be interested?

Teams currently are more focused on adding pitchers than hitters, knowing pitchers will need as much time as possible to prepare in a shortened spring training. Still, the calendar might become an issue for Correa, too. It’s March 14. The season begins in 25 days. And no obvious path exists for Correa to beat Corey Seager’s 10-year, $325 million free-agent contract with the Rangers, much less Francisco Lindor’s 10-year, $341 extension with the Mets.

The Yankees, enamored with their top shortstop prospects, Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza, do not want to go long-term on a shortstop. The Dodgers at the moment seem more focused on free-agent first baseman Freddie Freeman. Plus some of their players, like some on the Yankees, harbor a degree of ill will toward Correa, the most outspoken member of the Astros teams that stole signs illegally during the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

For the Red Sox, a pursuit of Correa would be complicated. The Braves face the possible loss of Dansby Swanson in free agency next offseason, but have never awarded a contract larger than the $135 million they gave Freeman in his previous deal. The Cubs couldn’t agree on long-term deals with any of their own players (Kris Bryant, Javier Báez, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber) and now they’re going to drop $300 million-plus on Correa?

Now consider how the market might transform if Correa is willing to sign for only one year. The Astros would not be the only team interested at that contract length. The Yankees, Dodgers and perhaps other clubs might jump, clubhouse concerns be damned. The opportunity to land an elite talent on a one-year deal is the kind of thing that moves front-office executives to tears.

Granted, Correa at $45 million would surpass Max Scherzer for the highest salary in major-league history, and put the Astros over the new $230 million luxury-tax threshold. Boras, though, might only go for a short deal if he is breaking some type of record. And according to Fangraphs’ dollars metric, which is WAR converted to a dollar scale based on what a player would earn in free agency, Correa was worth $46.2 million last season.

Correa probably would prefer the Astros in a short-term scenario, relishing the chance to play one more season with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Co. But after spending the past two seasons as the lead actor in the Astros’ traveling rogue show, he could handle any market. Provided he stayed healthy and productive, he still would be in position to hit the free-agent jackpot next winter. Boras would collect the entirety of that commission; Correa’s previous agent, Jon Rosen of WME, fielded offers for him before the lockout, and likely would be entitled to a percentage of any deal Boras negotiates in the coming days.

The top free-agent position players in the 2022-23 class — if they do not sign extensions — will be right fielder Aaron Judge and shortstops Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts (if he opts out). Judge will be entering his age 31 season, Turner and Bogaerts their age 30 campaigns. Correa, on the other hand, will play at age 28 in 2023.

A one-year, $45 million deal would enable him to blow past Lindor’s record average annual value for a shortstop by more than $10 million. Correa then would re-enter the market at a time when the sport presumably would be recovered from two years of lost revenues stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Is he likely to sign a pillow contract? Maybe not. But considering the usual circumstances of Correa’s free agency, the idea is not necessarily far-fetched. Boras could justify it easily enough at a news conference. “Long-term or short,” he might say, suppressing a chuckle, “Carlos is going to win either way.”

 

I understood the agreement to be that the QO is out, but would come back if the owners and MLBPA couldn't come to an agreement on the international draft by sometime in the summer.

 

I think Correa would be extremely foolish to sign a straight 1 year deal. A front loaded version of Houston’s last rumored offer with an opt out after the 1st year (something like $175M/6yrs with $40M in the 1st year and an opt out after year 1) makes sense, but that is only if his market didn’t bring anything close to what he was seeking.

Another option that might be viable is a long term deal palatable to the Astros but with incentives to allow Correa to reach his rumored goal of beating Seager’s contract. Something like $280M/10yrs with $5M/yr in games played incentives and $2M/yr in awards incentives and an opt out after the 1st season.

 

Definitely would be an opt out involved if the latter. Something that would mutually interest both parties.

Regardless of what happens, I’m definitely glad that Crane, as an owner, chooses to take the lead on these bigger decisions. We know he’s very pragmatic, has the ability to not get overly emotional, but still has a bit of sentiment and understands the importance of how star players help cultivate a brand and maintain fan longevity.