Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

If Pena is not the backup plan, then I’m sure they’ll start negotiations. They probably won’t make a formal offer if they think they are still in the mix for Correa though. I don’t think we’ll see too many crazy contracts prior to the CBA situation being settled though.

 

How do you know?

 

I don't even know why we discuss this, there isn't a baseball player in the entire world worth $30 million a year. It's ultimate team sport where even being the best doesn't even make you that much better. Carlos Correa isn't even close to being the best player, he's not even the best on our own team. I don't even understand why anyone would pay 300 million for a guy who bats 6th in our lineup.

hes never even got 100 RBIs in any season he's played for us..

 

I think Carlos Correa is the only free agent SS Houston should be interested in. If they can’t sign him then they should pivot to upgrading CF and pursue Kris Bryant, Starling Marte, Tommy Pham, or Mark Canha; all 4 of those guys can handle CF, project to be in the same offensive tier as Correa, and won’t cost a draft pick. Bryant is the only one of those guys who should command a 9 figure contract.

No other FA position players that should be affordable for the Astros really represent a meaningful upgrade from what they already have. It would be nice if Houston could find a place for Schwarber or Rizzo but they just aren’t a fit defensively. I wonder how Yuli would look in CF (just kidding).

 

The only one I would want is Starling Marte. No power but decent defensively and is a professional hitter in the mold of Brantley.

I'm just hoping Pena isn't a liability with a bat since I'm pretty confident defense translates from the minors to the pros.

 

https://theathletic.com/2940778/202...sign-will-the-detroit-tigers-contend-in-2022/

Where will Carlos Correa end up? — David B.

I received several versions of this question. David B. asked in the most concise manner. Congratulations to David B.

Before we begin, let me provide a caveat to this question, and all those which follow. Given the uncertainty of the labor situation, it is hard to say how this winter will unfold. The threat of a lockout could put all transactions on hold before a lockout even occurs. It is possible that owners and executives spot opportunities in the month of November, before the CBA expires, and gamble on the landscape not altering much in the subsequent agreement. Most likely, though, everything will freeze until the teams know what the rules look like for 2022. How many teams make the playoffs? Is there a universal designated hitter? What does the competitive balance tax look like? I doubt many clubs rush into moves before they know these things.

Anyway. Carlos Correa. Good player. Someone should sign him.

The place to start is Correa’s most recent employer. The Astros have held the line thus far in their reported offers. The team appears willing to commit to Correa for half a decade, when the contract he will likely sign will last twice that long. The most recent bid to surface was $160 million for five years, as reported by Fox 26 in Houston. That is less than half of what Francisco Lindor got.

Lindor signed his $341 million extension heading into his age-27 season. In his previous two years, he had been worth 6.1 WAR, according to Baseball Reference. Correa is entering his age-28 season. In his two seasons before free agency, he was worth 8.9 WAR. So Correa is a year older. The Mets also paid Lindor to forgo free agency. Even so . . . yeah, $160 million over five years for Correa won’t get it done.

Does that mean Houston is out? No. Astros owner Jim Crane could break from precedent and authorize a decade-long commitment. The team has never done this under his leadership. They could certainly afford it. Given the initial offers and the finality with which Correa treated this season, it looks like he will play for a new team in 2022.

So who needs a shortstop?

In a column last month, my main man Ken Rosenthal listed a handful of clubs: Texas, Seattle, Philadelphia, St. Louis, the Angels and the Yankees. Given the antipathy Correa has generated in The Bronx, it is hard to see him in pinstripes. Not impossible, but that would be the swerve of the century. It is also hard to see St. Louis winning the bidding, given their commitments to Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. The Angels need pitching, but they also needed pitching when owner Arte Moreno splurged on Anthony Rendon two years ago, so who knows.

The Rangers, Mariners and Phillies all make sense. My pick, though, is the Detroit Tigers. This is not a unique opinion. The connection with manager A.J. Hinch is obvious. Detroit needs a new face of the franchise. Correa fits the bill. He is talented, personable and driven. He emerged as the leader of his club in the aftermath of the cheating scandal. The taint of 2017 will never leave him. But Correa has demonstrated these past two seasons he will not allow it to affect his performance. He is the best player available this winter, and he will get paid as such.

 

Nobody knows, but I'd agree it's unlikely for him to get a 10 year contract for 32M+ AAV.

I'd start with how many contracts like that have ever been given. The answer is 2 that meet both criteria: Lindor and Trout. Correa is not Trout, and I don't think anyone is looking at the Lindor contract saying that was a good move by the Mets.

If you lower it to 8 years at 30 million, then you have:
Fernando Tatis Jr* (technically the AAV is lower, but if you ignore the team control years, this is probably something like a 9 year / 270M contract)
Mookie Betts
Mannie Machado

You have to have both a great player and great timing. For the sake of argument, let's say Correa meets the great player argument as compared to this list. Then you have to look at the timing. Are there other teams out there with money to spend in similar positions to what the Padres/Mets were in? Are those teams going to be likely to make this type of commitment with uncertainty around the CBA and what that will mean for the luxury tax, etc.

For those reasons I think a 10 year contract for something in the ballpark of 30M AAV is not that likely. A 7-8 year contract seems more likely or if it is a 10 year one, it will be at a lower AAV. It's also why I think a 6 year offer at 35M AAV is a serious offer that is likely to keep the Astros in the mix going forward. 6 at 210M isn't that bad compared to an 8 year 240M deal if Correa thinks he can get more than 15M a year on the open market in 6 years (not a crazy thought if he produces and there is any inflation).

A 5 year 32M AAV is not going to keep them in play. 5 at 160M doesn't look that good against 8 at 240M. He'd have to feel very confident he could command more than $27M a year for 3+ years 5 years from now.

 

https://theathletic.com/2940507/202...tions-and-best-team-fits-for-a-stacked-class/

1. Corey Seager, SS | Contract prediction: 10 years, $320 million
2. Carlos Correa, SS
Age: 27
B: R T: R HT: 6-4 WT: 220
2021 WAR: 7.3 OPS+: 131 Salary: $11.7M
Agent: Jon Rosen

Correa delivered the best 2021 performance by far of any position player in this class and his 7.3 WAR topped the rest of the field. He tallied 21 defensive runs saved, showing range to both sides and one of the best shortstop arms in the business as he won a Gold Glove. He slashed .279/.366/.485 with 34 doubles, 26 home runs and 92 RBIs. Like Seager, he loves the big stage, racking up 18 home runs and 59 RBIs in 16 playoff series over six years. He’s a winning player and a good teammate. The only concern is the back issues he’s had in the past. However, if medically cleared, Correa should be able to land a contract in the neighborhood of Manny Machado’s mega-deal with the Padres in 2019.

Best fits: Astros, Yankees, Cardinals, Rangers, Tigers, Mariners, Red Sox

Contract prediction: 10 years, $300 million

3. Freddie Freeman, 1B | Contract prediction: 6 years, $187 million
4. Max Scherzer, RHP | Contract prediction: 3 years, $150 million
5. Marcus Semien, 2B | Contract prediction: 5 years, $148 million
6. Trevor Story, SS | Contract prediction: 7 years, $204 million
7. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF | Contract prediction: 6 years, $150 million
8. Robbie Ray, LHP | Contract prediction: 5 years, $120 million
9. Kevin Gausman, RHP | Contract prediction: 5 years, $118 million
10. Javier Báez, SS | Contract prediction: 6 years, $172 million
11. Marcus Stroman, RHP | Contract prediction: 5 years, $110 million
12. Starling Marte, CF | Contract prediction: 4 years, $104 million
13. Nick Castellanos, OF | Contract prediction: 5 years, $126 million
14. Seiya Suzuki, OF/INF | Contract prediction: 5 years, $101 million
15. Kenley Jansen, RHP | Contract prediction: 2 years, $40 million
16. Carlos Rodón, LHP | Contract prediction: 1 year, $12 million, with incentives pending medical outlook
17. Clayton Kershaw, LHP | Contract prediction: 1 year, $15 million, with incentives pending medical outlook
18. Justin Verlander, RHP

Age: 38
HT: 6-5 WT: 235
2021: Did not pitch Salary: $33M
Agent: ISE Baseball

Verlander, who received the qualifying offer from the Astros, is expected to throw on Monday with several teams in attendance. He did not pitch this year as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery in October 2020. I just can’t leave Verlander off my top 25 list because the two-time Cy Young Award winner has so much upside if he can make a recovery. If he rejects Houston’s one-year, $18.4 million offer, Verlander should receive at least that plus incentives from another team.

Best fits: Angels, Giants, Yankees, Astros, Cardinals

Contract prediction: 1 year, $18.4 million with Houston or that plus incentives from another team

19. Noah Syndergaard, RHP | Contract prediction: 1 year, $18.4 million
20. Anthony Rizzo, 1B | Contract prediction: 4 years, $80 million
21. Michael Conforto, OF | Contract prediction: 5 years, $90 million
22. Chris Taylor, INF/OF | Contract prediction: 4 years, $64 million
23. Raisel Iglesias, RHP | Contract prediction: 3 years, $51 million
24. Kyle Schwarber, DH/LF/1B | Contract prediction: 3 years, $54 million
25. Brandon Belt, 1B | Contract prediction: 4 years, $79 million

 

It’s all about cost. I think any of those 4 guys would likely be better than Meyers/Siri/McCormick (Marte and Bryant by quite a bit). These are what I think would be the max I would offer each player:

Correa $220M/6yr
Bryant $160M/5yr
Marte $90M/4yr
Canha $40M/3yr
Pham $25M/2yr

 

Bryant and Taylor seem like they’d be really good values at those prices.

 

Headed to Detroit 8/350 mil

 

LOL, at that price they can have him.

 

That would be the highest AAV in baseball by about 9 million and long contract as well. If you consider Trout’s contract was an extension that covered some exiting years, it would also be the second largest contract in total value ever (behind Betts which was only 10M more for 4 more years). That seems unlikely.

 

With Travis Scott’s security making Yankees, Dodgers, etc fans think twice

 

May seem crazy, but how about something like 3 years 130 million for Correa which is actually likely to help him maximize his lifetime earnings as he would be a free agent again at 30. It would also extend the Astros current window through the Altuve and Bregman contracts. A ton of money to pay for three years, but realistically these super long contracts are meant to be paying them above market value over the first half then below over the remaining years as the player falters and slides from their peak.

 

The entire city of Detroit don’t have 350 million

 

I would think a more plausible but similar move might be for the Astros to leverage the uncertainty of the new CBA to lock Correa for 1 more year. Something like $220M/10yrs, with $45M in the 1st year and an opt out after year 1. Correa gets to be the top paid player in the league next year, he gets >$200M guaranteed, he gets another shot at a ring, he gets to re-enter free agency knowing the CBA details, and Houston gets to extend him while mitigating his AAV.

 

If that 6 for $210M offer is legit that tells me they're serious about trying to work something out...they aren't going to let him walk over 1 or maybe even 2 years (I don't see them going past 8 years though).

I keep seeing the Lindor contract as the baseline but IMO there's no way he gets that. The Mets were desperate to make a splash with a new owner, who is one of the wealthiest owners in all baseball at that. When you look at how Lindor performed...I think if anything it serves as a caution flag to teams.

Edit: Lindor also wasn't a free agent at the same time as Semien, Story, Baez, Seager and Chris Taylor (if you count him).

 

I always thought that giving him 260 over 8 years while paying him 40 million the first three to four year with an opt out at the end of year 3 or 4 would be a positive for everyone.

 

I could definitely see the negotiations landing here assuming the 6/$210M is legit.