Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

He is willing to pay top notch per year, just doesn't do 10 year deals, and I don't blame him.

 

Thanks for the heads up, I won't give it the click

 

This.

It's ridiculous how many fans, much less members posting here and therefore you would think are more than just a casual fan, of this team continue to insinuate and/or blatantly state the Astros are a "mid market" team and/or "can't afford to spend like the large market teams" when that is far from the truth and just flat out incorrect.

We've been top 5 in payroll the past two years (#4 last year and #5 in 2020). At $194M we spent only $11M less than the Yankees for the #2 spot and nearly $70M more than the league average - or better yet roughly $40M and $50M more than the Braves and White Sox (true "mid market teams"), respectively.

Getting tired of people equating our unwillingness to hand out 10 year contracts to "Astros are a middle market team". They've made it CLEAR they don't believe in those contracts to ANYONE and it's shocking that some people still don't seem to understand that the Astros FO is pretty good at what they do...

 

Your response makes it seem like Crane is unwilling to spend when...

"We've been top 5 in payroll the past two years (#4 last year and #5 in 2020). At $194M we spent only $11M less than the Yankees for the #2 spot and nearly $70M more than the league average - or better yet roughly $40M and $50M more than the Braves and White Sox (true "mid market teams"), respectively."

It has NOTHING to do with "he just doesn't want to spend the money" and EVERYTHING to do with the front office's belief he isn't worth what another team is willing to give him - that team will undoubtedly be a poorly ran team that hasn't won anything in forever, like the Rangers or Angels, or a team that doesn't worry about the luxury tax. Regarding the latter, there is literally only ONE team, the Dodgers who got a massive TV rights deal, that historically has been willing to spend well over the LT threshold - moving forward the Mets, who are now owned by one of the wealthiest guys in the world, appear likely to spend well over without issue...

In other words, stating there is "no salary cap" isn't really painting the whole picture either.

 

Especially when defense is a large part of the player's value. In what should be his "prime" at age 27, he was "only" 24th in the MLB in wRC+ and 26th in offensive WAR. He's 33rd during the 2017 to 2021 seasons in total in wRC+

While that is very good offensively, it's not what you expect when dishing out a TEN year deal to someone. After 5-7ish years into that deal when his defense is likely around league average (assuming still at SS), you want to hopefully bank on the bat still being very good but it's hard to see that given where the bat is right now in his prime.

Most likely, someone will be paying him ~$35M for 3+ years to provide league average defense and offense...

Edit: If we are going to give anyone a 10 year deal, Kyle Tucker is the guy...I would actually be all for buying out his arbitration years and going ahead and just giving him a 8 to 10 year deal instead of paying Correa. He will be able to hold his own in RF defensively throughout the life of the contract and he's clearly still got upside in the bat, at least in terms of overall offensive numbers for a season given how "unlucky" he was during the first month of this past season. From May 1st on, he was 2nd in the ENTIRE MLB in wRC+ behind only Bryce Harper (166 vs. 168) and there is no evidence to suggest that was a fluke...both eye test and underlying stats.

 

Agreed with everything. Also giving Tuck a 10 year deal would be much much cheaper than Carlos(especially if you did it soon).

 

Except under asianballa's criteria, it doesn't matter. Correa is greedy for looking for the biggest contract instead of taking less and chasing a ring - full stop. Nothing else matters. Crane *can* spend extra money and chase a ring. He's choosing not to have a $300MM payroll that pays Correa and Cole and Springer. By his criteria, that makes him just as greedy for picking profit over a ring.

Edit: In simpler terms, if Correa is greedy for not taking less than market value to chase a ring, Crane would be equally as greedy for not paying more than market value to chase a ring. In both cases, they are picking smart financial decisions over rings.

 

i agree they can "afford" Correa, but at 10 years? Come on now

 

this made me lol

 

I hear you and nothing is more annoying than grown men complaining about other grown men being "greedy" when it comes to a paycheck and providing for their family - 99% of the people who make this complaint are hypocrites who would quit their job tomorrow if someone offered to double their pay. This is their career we are talking about - they have put it WAY more hours of training and practice than any of us have put into anything in our lives without question. That said, he thinks we are a middle market team so that's why I responded like I did.

Also, I don't think either are not picking rings - Corey Seager clearly went for every dollar he could get and did not care about winning. I don't see Correa doing that and I can almost guarantee the Rangers offered Correa that same deal (they would LOVED to have stolen him from us) but he DOES care about winning, to a certain extent that is. If Correa goes to the Yankees, Mets or Dodgers, he will have plenty of chances for another ring.

On the other hand, Crane already offered Correa $35M annually the next 6 years (supposedly), and given the Astros are a savvy analytically driven team, they will spend the money elsewhere and likely get better value out of that than giving it to Correa over the next 10 years. You could make the argument that the Astros are picking rings by not giving Correa the ridiculous payday he is going to get...

 

I don't know how to put this correctly but I think Tucker "has WAY less confidence in himself" than Correa - and I mean that from beginning the day we drafted Correa. In other words, I think Tucker would be more likely now than Correa ever was to accept an extension (I believe we offered Correa one several years back and he said no) at a price that is reasonable - he seems like someone who would rather have the comfort in knowing he's set for life versus trying to become the best and highest paid player in baseball. Ironically, I think he's going to have a better career than Correa...

Edit: In before everyone gets on my ass for that opinion on who will have a better career...it's just an opinion.

 

I sure hope Tucker has a better career than Correa.

He's still an Astro.

I know that Correa has hardware that Kyle doesn't and Carlos has been great at a premium position, but Tucker still has 3 years to build up the resume before he turns 27 ( Correas age)

He already has a 70 XBH, 30 HR season that Correa never has. He is a much better baserunner and is a 2 time gold glove finalist already.

And no injury worries

Him having a better career than Carlos would not surprise me at all.

 

His second half of the season where he hit .327/.398/.631 (1.029 OPS) with 15 HR and nearly walked at the same rate as he struck out...take his counting stats and project them over a full season and you get 40 HR, 115 RBI, 19 SB, and 43 2B with essentially identical vs. LHP and RHP splits.

He needs to be hitting 2nd this season to get as many ABs as possible - he IS without question our best hitter.

 

But what does that really mean? We all know all teams only hang on to high priced players when they're contending and the payroll is justified. When they need to rebuild, they off-load... even the biggest market teams.

As has been said again and again, the Astros have a for-sure 3 year window. It would be amazing to extend beyond that and basically have a 10-15 year run of being in the hunt (exceedingly rare for any sports team), but realistically, this Astros run will come to an end regardless of what length contract Correa agrees to.

At that point, you either put your chips in and go with the best core this team has ever had in franchise history... or you don't.

 

What are yall talking about during the lockout?

 

I completely agree about Tucker hitting 2nd. Not only is he the best hitter now but only 24 ( 25 next month) and still improving. He is developing the plate discipline that was lacking and is probably the best baserunner on the team.

Thank you, thank you, thank you Jeff Luhnow for resisting countless pleas from impatient fans and crafty GMs to trade him.

Altuve
Tucker
Bregman
Alvarez
Gurriel
McCormick/Siri ( Meyers)
Brantley
Pena
Maldy.

 

This theory that Crane is too cheap to retain Carlos, or doesn't spend money is just not true. There is a difference between frugality and being cheap. Frugal means you spend money but you don't waste money. Cheap means you just don't like to spend it all.

Astros spend a lot of dollars on players, but they spend it smart. Look at the sheer amount of talent the Astros have LOST since 2017 (Keuchel, Morton, Cole, Springer, McCann, McHugh) yet contention year after year.

Astros are one of those franchises I just completely trust that they do the right thing. It's a very peaceful feeling, and its the exact opposite of how I feel about that trash heap on Kirby.

 

For me. not much worth talking about right now.

 

That's a damn good question..... what's going on with the Verlander contract, Goldstein thinks something is up but doesn't know if it is a hiccup or a problem........ talked about possible trade candidates..... basically everything but Carlos "He Gone" Correa.

 

I live Carlos and wish he could be a life long Astro

But the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one.

The team has $147.9 million ( + potential incentives) on the books for 2022 for 12 players. Can they do $180 mil + for 13 players?

Another $15 mil projected for 6 arb eligible players.

That's $163 mil for 18 players without Correa. $195+ mil for 19 players with him.

Framber, Javier, Urquidy, Tucker, and Alvarez are all going to be in arbitration the next few years and set for big big raises. Then all are scheduled to be FA in 2026.

Let's say they resign Correa for AAV of $32 mil.

That means they would have about $155 mil for 9 players on the books ( with Verlanders and Odorizzis options) for 2023

And those 5 players above will be arbitration eligible. Maybe Verlander and Odorrizi don't take the options, but the payroll would still be very very top heavy and be worse in 2024.