Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

5 years would be considered an insult when you know he wants 10. 8 might get it done if no other team offers 10. Should front load it which would work well for both parties.

Holding out hope….

 

If the 6 year 210 million offer is real, at least that’s a serious offer. I doubt Correa would accept at this point, but I think it keeps the Astros in the discussion. If it included a player option starting in year 4 I could see scenarios he might accept something with that as a starting point. It would put him at the highest AAV for a shortstop, give him over 200 million guaranteed and offer him the ability to get a new contract at age 31 if salaries continue to rise.

I don’t think a Lindor level contract is going to happen. I can’t imagine teams are looking at that contract and saying, “yeah, that was a good move and we should do the same.” Tatis is a more interesting case, although he was much younger and had years of team control left, so it’s a little tricky to compare. He was going into his age 22 season. Correa is going into his age 27 season, so that contract is more like 9 year 270M (trying to adjust for the team control years reducing the AAV). I’m not sure we’ll see other teams willing to commit to that kind of a deal right now, so in terms of contracts over 30M AAV I don’t think he’ll get an offer more than 8 years. 6 at 210 with a player option doesn’t look that bad against 8 at 240-250. That said we don’t even know that 6 at 210 is a real offer.

 

He'll hold out for 10, because he knows he's not going to be worth another big money contract 5 or 6 years from now. That means he's gone, but it's not necessarily a bad thing. He'll be missed, but he can be replaced with someone that you won't be hamstringing your franchise's future for. If you can get 80% of Correa on a sane deal from someone else, you take it.

 

Let him go. Other FA SS are available.

 

In order to leave $100,000,000.00 on the table someone has to put it on the table. As far as I know $210,000,000.00 is the only offer on the table. I believe it is a very generous offer and exceeds the value Correa can generate.

 

Well, in all fairness to the other teams, they can't even make an offer to Correa until tomorrow, so that's why it's the only offer. Now, you may be right and it could be the highest Correa sees. In my opinion, it's not. I believe it's a good offer, not great. Not sure if Correa will see an offer that is $100,000,000 more, but I think he will see one that is at least half that amount extra.

 

Good Bye.

 

He’s not getting a ten year offer. He’s not getting better than a 32mil/yr offer

 

No wonder he looked so mad when he saw me.

 

32-35 mil a year (depending on conflicting reports) is nowhere close too a weak offer. I can guarantee that there’s maybe 3-4 teams with a need at SS, who are a contender and has the $$$ and commitment to top that.

 

Talking about AAV while ignoring the length of the contract is the only way to make it not a weak offer. Unfortunately, the reality is that the length is a key part of the offer.

 

This offer ain't gonna cut it.

 

Do players want long contracts due to the risk of injury? Are they afraid their skills will decline and they won't get a lucrative contract after the shorter contract ends (I also don't believe a 6 year contract is anywhere near short)? Or is it simply market inflation?

 

Might as well offer him 10 years/300M right now if your gonna give him 8Y/270M. We’re banking on him to be worth at least 15M per year in his 9th and 10th seasons of the contract. I still think someone will give him Lindor money though. 10Y/300M won’t get it done.

 

I guess Jeremy Pena is ready to take over SS.

Jeremy Pena . 260 20 Hr 77 Rbis
That is Carlos Correa number for years

Alex Bregman better be ready to produce

Astros do need to insert more young players anyway.

C Korey Lee and Yainier Diaz need to make the team and Start over Martin Maldonado

 

If you can have extra guaranteed money vs not having it, what possible logic is there for not getting it.

These deals always include an opt out relatively early if you overperform. There's literally no downside.

 

I wouldn’t sign any player to an 8-10 year contract. Carlos can take his 2021 weak post season numbers elsewhere.

 

Are you extrapolating Pena's minor league numbers. Go look at Correa's minor league numbers.

Realistically, Pena may be almost as good as Correa defensively with a weaker arm. We also hope he is as good as Meyer/Chas/Siri offensively.

 

Do you think the Astros will negotiate with any other SS while they wait for Correa to make up his mind where he goes? I would like them to put an offer our for Marcus Semien at 4 year $120 million to start the negotiation there. I can see Correa taking a while dragging out the process to see which team will give him the most years.