Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

I love when we treat tweets from anonymous sources as fact. That's also how Verlander signed a few days ago with the Yankees.

 

Supposedly, people say a player's value is about $8MM per WAR. So a 1-yr, 7-WAR player would be worth $56MM, etc. Seems weird to me, but that seemed to be a standard - at least a few years ago. Not sure how that's changed with payrolls/salaries the last few years.

 

Don't tell Correa that.

 

To me, it’s a very small part of it. What has separated the Astros from other organizations is their player development model is among the best in MLB, and Lunhow built a culture of winning throughout the Astros’ minor league system. The latter isn’t quantifiable, but I think it helps explain why so many young players have been able to step up in pressure-packed situations or fill important roles. Urquidy in the 2019 World Series, Garcia this season, Javier out of the bullpen in the postseason series against Minnesota during the 2020 season, etc.

None of the teams I referenced consistently developed young, cost controlled talent while they had that expensive contract on their roster like Luis Garcia, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier on the pitching side. On the hitting side, both Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick proved they can be major leaguers last year, and Jeremy Pena has developed into a top prospect. Myles Straw did enough to net them a valuable bullpen arm in Phil Maton. They got Yordan Alvarez for a bucket of balls, reminiscent of the Jeff Bagwell trade, and Kyle Tucker finally lived up to his top-10 pick status after taking a couple of seasons to acclimate to MLB pitching. They signed a high upside OF prospect from Cuba in Pedro Leon using international bonus pool money. This doesn’t even factor in Hunter Brown and Korey Lee.

It’s not just his leadership that would be difficult to replace. He’s also a Gold Glove defender that helps make every Astros’ pitcher better. The fact he also is a middle-of-the-order bat at a premium position makes him very valuable and tough to replace. As far as I’m concerned, he’s the Astros best position player, overall. That combined with his vocal leadership after the sign-stealing punishment was announced is why I don’t want him playing for another team. It also bothers me that Crane decided to prioritize Correa’s free agency over Springer’s, yet, to date, refuses to offer the kind of contract he knew it would take to keep Correa. I have no problem with prioritizing the 27-year-old elite shortstop, but don’t mess around during the negotiations. Do what it takes to get the deal done.

 

I agree we need another power bat in the outfield or pitching.

But I don't think looking at catcher is that stupid. I totally understand the love for Machete with the rotation and on defense, but having any position player batting below .200 and OPS below 0.500 OPS in 4 of 6 postseason series is major issue against good playoff teams. It is exacerbated when playing in NL parks and would be next year given the expected downgrade of SS offensive production.

I've been hearing about high level catching prospects since the Astros drafted Castro in like 2008, and few if did anything of note. Sure the next two might pan out, but banking on young high level prospects at BOTH SS and catcher could easily fail.

 

Our top prospect and the guy who was named Astros minor league player of the year are both catchers.

 

YULE C. YULE all see.

 

Lol, this is the truth.

 

Maybe stupid was too strong a word, I just think OF power bat is a better idea and attainable without giving up top level prospects. We should be all in on Bryant because of his flexibility. If not Bryant, then go pitching. Stroman would be the man for me.

 

Actually the math may not be that off. Correa has a 34.1 career WAR in 7 seasons which translates to 4.26 per season. 4.26 x 8 gives you $34 million per year on average value. If you factor in his play diminishing over the final years of a 10 year deal I would think a 10/300 million deal would be fair market value.

 

It's business on both sides and the ability to maintain the roster.

I dont blame Correa for wanting to get all he can get and I dont blame Crane for setting a budget and sticking to that budget. What I dont like is players (Not just Correa) saying they really want to stay with their franchises. When what they really want is the most money they can possibly get. Just be truthful about where you stand.

Do you have something against billionaires?

 

Like you said, it's business for both sides. I hear owners say they really want to keep X player when they really mean "I want to keep X player if he doesn't cost too much". And that they really want to win a title when they actually mean they "really want to win if it doesn't cost too much." There's a PR game going on for both sides.

You shouldn't expect players to take significantly less money to stay. That's not rational. If the money is close, other factors can come into play.

 

Agreed,

The fact that history says 300 million dollar 10 year contracts and low odds winning championships go hand in hand I dont blame Crane for his stance. I also dont blame Correa for his stance either. In short I would let Correa walk.

 

Agree with all that.

Both things can be true. Correa may want to stay with the Astros and maximize his income. If he can't have both, he has to choose one, and history suggests taking the money.

No, I have a problem with people thinking players should sacrifice on behalf of them.

 

This simply isn't true -there's not enough data one way or another on this. There are only 5 $300MM/10 yr contracts (2 of them have an AAV under $30MM/yr because they are 13+ yr deals). 4 were signed in the last 3 years (2 of those were this year). One of those - the largest deal - has already won a championship.

 

Yep. It definitely does.

 

wHo WIlL tHiNk oF tHE bILlioNaIrEs?!

 

Was hoping this was real.

 

The whole Jeter thing is hilarious and I'm glad he said it.

Just goes to show you the gold glove award is largely garbage.

 

That account is a hilarious follow. They’ve gotten me pretty good before