Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

He'll back back. Multiple SAUCES.

 

Didn't realize Correa was getting extra treatment on his back this season that was likely being done to prevent injury during his contract year. Makes you wonder if he'll keep up the same regiment once he gets the long term deal.

 

No one SMART is giving Correa 10 years. They know about his back. 6-7 years will be the Max he gets.

 

I thought him getting regular "proactive" regimens for his back was well known. Obviously isn't impacting the Astros decision to offer 5 or 6 years as an initial offer.

I also question whether Jim Duquette is really still connected. The headline of the article is extremely misleading... Cashman is never interviewed or quoted about any of these "concerns".

We know the Astros are ruthless on medicals. They should know the ins/out about his issues more than anybody.

 

It's assuming, primarily, that Correa is going to want to play for a contender (who pays him a lot of money, obviously). And if that's true, he simply doesn't have many options, especially if the Yankees (Seager) are off the table. (I strongly believe the Dodgers, if they lose Seager, will be content with Turner/Lux up the middle, taking another big market contender off the board.)

I will be stunned if Correa pulls an ARod (I bet he's talked to ARod about ARod pulling an ARod). So, what, realistically, is his market? Which team is going to pay him $300MM *and* offer him a chance to play deep into October? I'm not sure - again, if New York and Los Angeles are off the table - that we need two hands to count those teams.

 

I realize A-Rod won WS MVP on that 2nd 10 year contract, but I'd say it didn't work out. He didn't give them much over the last 6 years beyond controversy.

 

Need multiple SAUCES.

 

If he's looking at 10 year deals, he's probably not simply relying on "who's good now" - same as Harper, Machado, Lindor, etc. And teams that are looking at signing him to a 10 year deal are not focused on "are we contenders in 2022?". If he signs a 10 year deal, it wouldn't be surprising if it's a random team that believes they are up-and-coming and convinces him of that - it's not likely to to be one of the top contenders today. A team like that by definition basically has to pay a premium to sign him since they can't offer the short-term guarantee of being good. I find the Tigers to be a weird option, but that's an example of the type of team it would be. Similar to where the Padres and Phillies were a few years ago when they signed their mega-deals when everyone thought those guys were looking at the Yankees/etc.

What Correa wants is anyone's guess. Maybe he's content on an up-and-coming team that pays him more. Maybe he's focused on winning now. How much influence his agent has is another unknown (see Carlos Beltran). None of us have any idea of that stuff.

 

That’s not true, I just checked Correa’s Twitter and there is no tiger there.

 

Yule C. But it was a nice photoshop lol.

 

This has happened a lot. These kind of deals can be double-edged swords. It can help propel a team back into contention. It can also lead to a team who's window got delayed by a few years as some prospect or veteran flames outs stuck with a 30-year old player that is average or merely good as their highest paid player. Very risky move, IMO, but it does seem likely that Correa ends up with a team that thinks it will be a contender soon. Could be the Tigers. Could be the Yankees.

 

I think he does have a pretty large Tiger tattoo already, right?

 

Correa took the tiger off his profile pretty quickly

 

Right. I was speculating, and said as much. And it was contingent on things happening that have not yet happened (and may never). But I feel like my take is grounded in some pretty reasonable assumptions.

He's been to the World Series 3 times; ALCS five times; postseason six times in a seven-year career. He has often articulated his goal: be the best on the best. I don't think it'll be easy for him to walk away from that for potential (ie a team like Detroit). I'm not saying he won't - I'm saying I think it'll be hard.

Additionally, he's obviously very smart, very savvy - I expect he will do his homework and likely, based on his time with the Astros, have a very high standard for his next chapter: ownership; front office; teammates; culture - these things will be important to him.

Finally, I think the Astros offer him things he cannot find elsewhere. No other team has Jose Altuve. No other team has his brother in their system. No other team changed his and his family's life. I think these things are important to him.

So when I look across the MLB landscape, I just don't see a lot of teams that can match his standard and offer him $300MM. And I don't think - if he has to choose - he's going to take $$ over winning/culture, etc.

All just a hunch. He may sign with the Rangers tomorrow for $350MM (which would floor me). But I sense he wouldn't. I don't think he *just* wants to cash paychecks.

 

Rereading: I didn't say it as much as I probably should have. But that was ALL speculation on my part based on reports and observations and, etc.

 

Best option for us assuming we can’t see him is him going to the Tigers, doubt they’ll be contending anytime soon

 

This is where I think the Astros have a theoretical edge. I just know that historically, there are not a lot of top-tier free agents that take smaller contracts and/or less guaranteed money for the sake of winning or front office or whatever. They may say it, but it almost always seems to come down to "who's paying the most". His interview regarding the income tax and all was refreshing because he hopefully is taking a deeper look at things than a lot of players do.

Edit: Even if that's the intent, it's hard once someone tells you "you're worth $300MM over 10 years" to go back to a place you prefer for other reasons and accept them telling you "sorry, we think you're only worth $240MM" and take that offer. There's ego/pride/etc issues involved there too, and I don't know how that plays out.