As i've said before, I won't pretend to know a lot about any of these guys going in the draft today other than what i've read, mostly on here I'm very happy with the pick for these reasons 1) I wanted us to come away from this draft with the best overall player, regardless of how that affects later picks 2) I was worried that we would take a lesser player just so we could save slot money 3) I do not know if Appel will be the best player from this draft, but I do know that he wasn't drafted because we felt like we could sign him for less than the others To me, that means Luhnow and his crew think he is the best prospect in the draft, I trust them as they have done a great job to this point with young players, so I am very happy with the fact we took him
So it sounds as if Carlos Pena and Rick Ankiel are also Boras clients. So Luhnow adds some "veteran" leadership in the offseason for a team he knows is going to be god awful and maybe he gets a softball from Boras on Appel? Hmm!
I think the Astros at least have a good idea from Boras the range they will need on Appel. From there they can decide if they have the money for him.
I'll buy this. I'm a guy who tends to lean towards the higher ceiling guys, but I understand why they would go for the guy with the track record. I still worry about his slider, which I've heard mixed things about. Was hoping someone from the forum could give some insight. While it's typically described as a plus pitch, I've seen a number of people say that it's more slurve than slider. Part of me is buying the the warnings to be prudent in expecting him to make pro batters miss this pitch. How much weight do these concerns really have? Without a truely plus breaking ball, can he be an elite starter?
Surprised with any kind of "eh" reaction on here. He's a consensus great player. There's no way to know which of the top 4 or 7 or whatever will be the best at this point, but we do know Appel is good and has upside. It sounds like some people were hoping for some massive surprise. Surprise isn't usually a good thing when you're picking 1-1! As NoWorries said, the fact that we took Appel clearly indicates that talent was their #1 concern, not saving $$. Gotta be happy with that. (Not to say they didn't make sure he was signable/try to get their costs down a little)
agree with all this. wanted him or bryant, happy with either. bryant the sexier pick, appel the safer. gonna be fun stuff to watch in a few years.
I think Appel is the safest pick. We rolled the dice a little bit last year on a young teenager with huge upside, so to me it makes sense to pick safe this year and get a guy closer to the majors. Which is not a knock on Appel's upside. There might be one or two other players in this class (Gray, Bryant?) with slightly higher potential, but even that is very arguable. They just aren't anywhere near as safe of a pick as Appel. I'm willing to sacrifice a tiny bit of ceiling for a lot of floor.
I'm glad they took a pitcher. Top-of-the-rotation pitching is so hard to find, so when you get a chance to draft the best one in the class, go for it. I really didn't know who was better between Appel and Gray, but I trust that Luhnow & Co. have done their homework. I agree with the idea that the fact they took him 1-1 indicates that they really thought he was the best player because he probably has the highest pricetag of all the potential #1s.
But he's not really a consensus 1. He was the favorite, but there was still a sense the Astros could go another way with it. Strasburg was a consensus 1 because his ceiling was considered to be MUCH higher than the next best arm. NoWorries said it best by indicating that Appel had the highest floor. At least 2 other pitchers were projecting similar ceilings. My post just above yours expressed a pretty reasonable concern that I hope someone who's watched Appel more than myself can weigh in on. Again, I do like the pick. Just cautiously optimistic about it.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20542 Stuff: Fastball – The heater is a true plus to plus-plus offering, sitting 93-96 mph and climbing to 97/98 mph on occasion. It is most effective down on the zone, traveling on a steep plane, and Appel can turn over the two-seam to produce arm side run. He holds velocity into the late innings and moves the pitch around the zone with limited difficulty. Slider – At its best, Appel’s slider can flash plus-plus, but more regularly vacillates between average and plus, depending on the game. The pitch is a mid-80s weapon that displays tilt and late bite from the waist down, but can flatten out and soften higher in the zone. He’s better spotting the pitch in the zone than inducing hitters to chase, but as he continues to improve his sequencing he should be able to utilize the pitch to expand the zone against advanced hitters, as well. Changeup – Another plus offering, Appel’s offspeed dovetails with his arm side fastball action and comes with arm speed and trajectory deception. When clicking, he can produce late fade and tumble and a lot of empty swings. A low-80s offering, the velo delta is more than adequate as a change of pace, and he is comfortable throwing the pitch in any count and in any game situation.
I honestly see him pitching w/ the big boys next year. Maybe next July due to his repertoire . I think so gone are the days where your best prospects are in the minors for 2-3+ years.
That's a tad conservative for a college senior who just got taken 1-1 and is widely considered a polished pitcher. I'd expect him up sometime in 2015, at least in September, and perhaps earlier.
Maybe. College ball is roughly equivalent to highest level short summer leagues (think Tri-City). Most of the Astro's best college draftees usually head to Tri-City. The very best college draftees, like Appel, can get a higher placement. This summer (2013), I expect Appel to get placed in loA Quad-City with maybe a late season promotion to hiA Lancaster. Appel has already pitched 106 innings this year for Stanford. I would not be surprised if the Astros limit his innings for the year to about 150, which might mean he gets shutdown before he gets a change for a late season promotion to hiA. A September callup in 2015 or even 2014 is always possible, when MLB teams expand their rosters. I can see the Astros being aggressive with September callups. The only limiting factor to Appel's September callup would be if he is close to his innings limit for the year. If Appel does break camp with the Astros in 2016, he would have only spent two full seasons in the minors, wich seems about right.
Cole made went A+ to AA to AAA in the span of a year. Should be called up this season (didn't play until the year after his draft). Hochevar made it to the bigs the year after he was drafted. Appel in 2015 seems like a lock barring performance issues, IMO, as that is also the season I think the Astros look towards becoming a winning team.
Cole is a better prospect / pitcher than Appel. As is Strasburg. You could be right. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Astros">#Astros</a>' Luhnow on Appel: "This is not a player that we're going to rush to the major leagues."</p>— Brian T. Smith (@ChronAstros) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChronAstros/status/342785582029758464">June 6, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> That could be GM speak for he will get there when he gets there.
