Teddy Bridgewater a year ago was being painted as a top 3 pick. He was the last pick in the draft. Things change over time, more information comes out about players that bump up or down a players stock.
Teddy Bridgewater was the last pick in the first round, not in the entire draft. I know you just mis-"spoke" (mis-"wrote"?) Your point is taken about how players can slide. Smart may slide to the back end of the lottery, maybe. Certainly not as far as #25.
And the NFL and NBA draft have what in common? Professional Sports teams pick college athletes who qualify to be on their teams... thats about it. Russell Wilson was taken in what... the 3rd round. He's the "star" of the team, but hardly their best player in respect to "replacement players". Different game, different draft. However.... As you noted, players in any draft can fall for one reason or another. It happened with Cousins, Drummond, etc. in the past few years. However with truly elite prospects, there is a huge divide in the way they are segmented within their groups. He could fall but the Rockets would still absolutely have to trade up in the draft to get him either way much like the Spurs did to get Leonard a few years ago. That's about best case scenario for the Rockets in this draft.
Haven't followed him to closely in college, outside of the Texas Tech incident. But I played against him in high school during State finals and I will say this about him... The dude is a born leader. Communicates on defense, is the hardest working guy on his team, and is flat out explosive.