Everyone seems to fall in love with potential. Leaf had potential, Tebow had potential, hell even the beloved VY had potential. The problem with the QB position is you can have all the physical attributes in the world, yet if you don't have what it takes between the ears, there's no way you're going to succeed long term in the league. I'm looking at you Jamarcus Russell.
Pretty intelligent view IMO. Would be hard to get players to commit to stuff like that(injury concerns), but it is an idea that I wish was circulated a bit more.
It's still limited on how much insight it would provide. The risk of injury weighed against the reward of seeing prospects in "simulated" NFL play just doesn't make it feasible. The problems with trying to create standardized ways of evaluating players are fundamental. There are simply too many variables to consider. Testing physical attributes is one thing, but there are sooo many intangibles. We know Clowney is physically everything that a DE should be, but there are plenty of questions about work ethic, off the field issues, etc. How can the likelihood of these thing inhibiting his development be evaluated? In my opinion, people let the Jamarcus Russell's scare them off too easily. For every Russell, there's a Josh Gordon, Vontaze Burfict, or Aqib Talib who's major personality concerns led to special players being continuously passed on. The fact is, there is always risk. People let their biases get the better of them and convince themselves that they are 100% positive "X" will be successful, but the chance of failure is there. This is like poker. You try to evaluate your chance of success, and make your bets accordingly. IMO, Clowney's chance of failure is solely tied to work ethic or injury, while Bridgewater's is more about being less than ideal physically for the QB position. For me personally, I wouldn't pass on the physically gifted players because a speeding ticket, drop in production, or questions about work ethic have convinced people they are just another underachiever. That's how Alshon Jeffrey slides into the 2nd round.
Last year was a definite choke job. No question about it. I didn't see the game this year but the consensus is injury limited his mobility which is a big part of why Mariota is successful. He hasn't been himself since.
Less than ideal physically? How so? Clowney has Mario Williams syndrome. Although Mario is a good player, he is no Revis who went in that same draft(I could absolutely be wrong about that, as I am going off memory). Some players have it in them. Bridgewater is a sure thing with his ability to read defenses.
I may be missing things, but I thought Mariota's issues was that he plays in a system where he doesn't have to go through his progressions, not that he's a bad team guy.
His height is only adequate at about 6'2.5", being listed anywhere from 195lbs-220lbs he's very thin for a qb, and there are questions about his hand size. Now, these are all things that could be dispelled when the combine rolls around. I'd feel much more comfortable drafting him at #1 should he show up at 225lbs & 9.5" hands. We'll just have to wait and see about that. As far as Bridgewater's ability to read defenses... well, it's nice that he looks like a pro-qb in AAC, but it just isn't evidence of being able to read, diagnose, and do progressions against an NFL front. QB's from non-AQ conference simply do not have a track record of making transition to the pros. People vastly underestimate the difference playing against pro's. I don't want to imply that he can't make that jump, but hoping a particular player is an exception to these norms has more risk to it than hoping another doesn't blow a sure thing with bad decisions. Saying Clowney has "Mario Williams syndrome" is exactly the type of overconfidence in our evaluation of intangibles that I was talking about in my previous post. Mario was largely a one season wonder in college. Clowney produced as a true freshman, had an incredible sophomore year, then had the rocky 2013. Much more similar to Alshon Jeffrey, who fell after everyone convinced themselves that the most recent level of production was more indicative of the player's potential than his entire career prior. And I've said before, if Mario William type production(Double digit sacks nearly every year he's played 16 games) is the worst case scenario for Clowney, that's fine by me. I'll take that floor, and hope for a Peppers type ceiling.
Mariota is the higher risk, higher reward player...Bridgewater is the safer pick. Not sure which route I would take. I dont think Mariota's upside is that much higher than Bridgewater's, so I think I go with Teddy. Tough call though because I've been a Mariota fan for a while.
First, there is no sure thing. Second, the issue of Bridgewater reading defenses is very overplayed. Yes, he can see some formations and make basic changes. However, it's not like other QBs just walk up to the line and aimlessly call plays without even thinking what the defense is doing. You have to have some ability to read a defense if you want to be successful...all these guys that we are talking about (Mariota, Carr, Manziel, et...) can read a defense. However, Bridgewater plays in a "pro" style offense that makes it seem more professional and ready for the big leagues. Whatever Bridgewater has done in college can basically be thrown out the window when he enters the NFL.
I've watched Mariota since day 1. He will be a stud NFL QB. He's very poised and has all the tools to succeed. If I were him I wouldn't come back. As a selfish die-hard Ducks fan I hope he comes back but I wouldn't be mad 1 bit. At times he seriously reminds me of a Tom Brady with legs. No BS.
I wouldn't categorize those two games as choke jobs by Mariota even tho he obviously didn't have an A game. The game in 2012, the Stanford defensive front 7 dominated the entire game. They consistently penetrated 3 to 4 yards into the back field, flushed Mariota out of the pocket, and had excellent coverage down field. It really wouldn't have mattered who was quarterbacking that game for the Ducks. Combine the defensive pressure up front, coverage in the back, and a wet field, there wasn't going to be many points on the board on that evening. To cap it off, Oregon missed 2 field goals when points were at a premium. Stanford missed one. On his lone interception, Mariota didn't see the "robber" slide into a deep zone. This was with about 22 seconds left in the first half. While Mariota was stepping away from pressure, he locked into his receiver, and the robber read his eyes deep into the zone for an easy pick. Here's the game so you can see for yourself how the Cardinal defense neutralized the Ducks offense. <iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/Tv4yWeOyins" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
It could easily became a verb or adjective if he flops. "I hope we don't Bortle our first round pick again this year."
Yep. Truely Pathetic. BRIDDGEWATERRR MANZIEELLLL These are much more franchise QB sounding names. Bortles sounds like some dumbass rugby prop for England
Wait - what is this based on? Do Non-AQ QB's have a higher failure rate than AQ QB's given their draft position? It seems like just the opposite, with very few of them being drafted highly but those that are having good success. There certainly is no lack of good ones in the NFL, with a decent number of Superbowls between them right now. By my count, you have Big Ben, Flacco, Kaepernick, Romo, Dalton as average or better. 4 of those 5 had pretty immediate success in the NFL, with 2 winning Superbowls and a third getting there. 3 or 4 will be in the playoffs this year. Then you have backups that served as starters part of this season in Fitzpatrick, McCown, and Keenum for a total of 25% of the league starting QBs for decent parts of this season from non-AQ conferences.
