Keep in mind, though - Exits showed Obama winning several super tuesday states like MA that he lost pretty badly. I don't think exit polls are rebalanced for to account for demographics, and they clearly don't include evening voters since the polls haven't closed, so if there are any differences in post-work voters (blue-collar voters, maybe?), you also get a difference there. I'd take all of this with a huge grain of salt at this point.
If Obama loses TX and/or Ohio, expect the lovefest for Obama with the media to be over. It's already starting to look like Obama has or is about to peak while Hillary has weathered the storm.
I'm not making any predictions and I acknowledge Hillary could still score a blowout tonight. That said... If Hillary gains a net of ten or less delegates tonight, it doesn't matter what the media does. There will never again be as many pledged delegates at stake on a single night as there are tonight. If it's a wash (or an Obama gain or a very small Clinton gain) it is Obama who has weathered the storm. Momentum is important. Math is more important. And, before tonight's results, Obama's up about 160 delegates. Before tonight's results, Hillary needed to win all remaining states by an average of a little over 60%. If she doesn't do that tonight, she needs the rest of the states by victories of around 70%.
in border states they don't include voters whose primary language is spanish, hence Clinton's victory in Cali was much larger than expected.
So you want an example, Batman? I'll give you one, straight out of the primary campaign playbook of that fierce, no holds barred, damn the torpedos, lock and load 1984 Presidential nominee, (drum roll) Senator Walter Mondale, AKA Caspar Milquetoast. Enjoy... (I googled this and just used this link. If you or someone else knows how to display the YouTube thingy, please do!) From Ben Smith at Politico: Here's the original "red phone" spot — for Mondale, and by Roy Spence, who is now supervising Hillary's ad strategy. (The ad starts 10 seconds in.) The script: The most awesome, powerful responsibility in the world lies in the hand that picks up this phone. The idea of an unsure, unsteady, untested hand is something to really think about. This is the issues of our times. On March 20, vote as if the future of the world is at stake. Mondale. This president will know what he's doing, and that's the difference between Gary Hart and Walter Mondale. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fu-2Ew1ijg Impeach Bush and Save Us from Canada!
But you forget about the superdelegates than can change their mind at ANY time for ANY reason. If Hillary continues momentum, she'll be able to raise money and deflate some of the recent Obama supporters to come back to her. Pennsylvania 7 weeks from now has 188 delegates. So Hillary can make a comeback from Obama's 160 delegate lead. One other thing that will come into play is Florida and Michigan which looks like they may hold another primary. If that happens, that will favor Hillary. The 160 delegate lead that Obama currently has is not a large enough pad to beat Hillary. On the contrary, Clinton does need a lot of help along the way. However, as we've seen in the past, the Clinton machine knows how to come back. Florida and Michigan is going to come to play.
The Caucuses start at 7:15..after the polls close. Here's how it works: http://www.texasobserver.org/article.php?aid=2697 It's both convoluted and dumbass....my vote will just have to do.
deck: <object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/3fu-2Ew1ijg"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/3fu-2Ew1ijg" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object> just click the embed code and paste here
Deckard: Did you sincerely misunderstand my post after I've made the same point 20 or more times without response or are you being willfully obtuse? Was Mondale originating that ad supposed to be a revelation? Everybody knows that and everybody knows both ads were made by the same admaker. By the way, how did it work out the last time we nominated the safe, experienced, boring choice over the exciting up and comer? I'm not looking for an example of other politicians practicing fear mongering or dishonest politics -- I'm fully aware of many, many examples, which is another reason I'm sick of the old school cynicism the Clintons have mastered and play so well -- I was looking for an example of Obama practicing dishonest, disingenuous, fear mongering politics of that sort, since you insisted for weeks that they were exactly the same that way without ever giving an example beyond his benign MLK comment. We can stop having this argument whenever you want, by the way. You obviously don't enjoy it. But in order for it to end you're going to have to accept that I consider the Clintons' methods here to be not only kitchen sink, not only negative, not only scorched earth, not only nuclear, but straight out of Karl Rove's playbook. And you're also going to have to accept the fact that I am under no obligation to support someone who pulls that crap, regardless of who is running against her.
Batman - if you want extra fodder: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/4/21311/85811/447/468408 Not sure I particularly believe it, but it's the epitome of sleaze if true.
CNN exits have Obama up 52-47 among men (41 percent), Clinton up 54-45 among women (59 percent) in Ohio. That would lead to a 3 or 4 point Hillary win...
The hillaroid is like the '97 Sonics.........it will not go down no matter how much it gets stomped on......it will continue striking out with fangs dripping with venom even whilst it's gasping its last breaths all the way to the very very end.......it will not die before the convention - book it.
I'd seen that, Major. I refuse to believe that the Clintons are actively engaged in race or religion baiting. I don't need to believe that stuff to be disgusted by their tactics on health care, Iraq, party loyalty, choice or just plain old making fun of believing in something.
Kos is the one coming across as sleaze for trying to make a ridiculous point about this. Actually, everybody already knew Kos was an extreme leftie lunatic, so it really doesn't matter
Kos is no more responsible for what's posted on his site than Clutch is for the stuff you and your brother post here.
This has been, by far, the most reliable indicator. I have no idea why they don't do the cross math, but this would suggest a 51-48 win. I think these breakdowns have been more reliable than the overall exit polls in the past.
It's pretty crazy. I've done it before and ended up at the county convention here (Austin) as an alternate delegate. So has my wife. Then we had kids rather late in life and nothing's been the same since. These rules aren't new, to the best of my knowledge. I think we've had them for 30 or 40 years. Nuts? Absolutely, but everyone has to play by the same rules. Sure, you will have some irregularities, but they are rare, IMO. The main thing you have to deal with is the large ego, here and there, who might attempt to push things towards their candidate. You get them on both sides. I wish it were more straight forward, but it's what we're stuck with in Texas. I might caucus tonight (I'd have to leave right now, so it probably isn't happening), but I honestly don't feel that passionate about either candidate. I like them both, so I think I'll leave it to those who want to get passionate about their guy/gal, and save my passion for November and the general election. Impeach Bush.
I'd prefer an Obama win obviously, but I'd be happy with this result. Hillary needs to do a lot better than a 3 point win in Ohio.
