The reality of Hillary's challenge: http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240/output/print Hillary’s Math Problem Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose. By Jonathan Alter Newsweek Web Exclusive Updated: 11:23 AM ET Mar 4, 2008 Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count. I'm no good at math either, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries. So here we go: Let's assume Hillary beats expectations and wins Ohio tonight 55-45, Rhode Island 55-45, Texas, 53-47 and (this is highly improbable), ties in Vermont, 50-50. Then it's on to Wyoming on Saturday, where, let's say, the momentum of today helps her win 53-47. Next Tuesday in Mississippi—where African-Americans play a big role in the Democratic primary—she shocks the political world by winning 52-48. Then on April 22, the big one, Pennsylvania—and it's a Hillary blowout, 60-40, with Clinton picking up a whopping 32 delegates. She wins both of Guam's two delegates on May 30, and Indiana's proximity to Illinois does Obama no good on May 6, with the Hoosiers going for Hillary 55-45. The same day brings another huge upset in a heavily African-American state: enough North Carolina blacks desert Obama to give the state to Hillary 52-48, netting her five more delegates. Suppose May 13 in West Virginia is no kinder to Obama, and he loses by double digits, netting Clinton two delegates. The identical 55-45 result on May 20 in Kentucky nets her five more. The same day brings Oregon, a classic Obama state. Oops! He loses there 52-48. Hillary wins by 10 in Montana and South Dakota on June 3, and primary season ends on June 7 in Puerto Rico with another big Viva Clinton! Hillary pulls off a 60-40 landslide, giving her another 11 delegates. She has enjoyed a string of 16 victories in a row over three months. So at the end of regulation, Hillary's the nominee, right? Actually, this much-too-generous scenario (which doesn't even account for Texas's weird "pri-caucus" system, which favors Obama in delegate selection) still leaves the pledged-delegate score at 1,634 for Obama to 1,576 for Clinton. That's a 56-delegate lead. Let's say the Democratic National Committee schedules do-overs in Florida and (heavily African-American) Michigan. Hillary wins big yet again. But the chances of her netting 56 delegates out of those two states would require two more huge margins. (Unfortunately the Slate calculator isn't helping me here.) So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal. For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead. The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now. Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.
It's not nearly as huge as the Slate article makes it, though. For example, in his 60/40 scenario, Hillary would pick up 32 delegates in Pennsylvania. Well, Florida has significantly more delegates than Pennsylvania, IIRC. I could easily see her picking up 56+ delegates in those two states, potentially enough to let some of those other states flip. Furthermore, his calculations are all conservative. What if Hillary wins Ohio by greater than 10 points? It's certainly possible. What if she wins some of those states by 60-40 instead of 55-45, capitalizing on the same momentum Obama did in February? What if Hillary wins enough in the big states to turn the overall popular vote in her favor? Note that I'm not expecting any of those things to happen. But is it possible? Absolutely, and assuming she carries three states tonight, it's definitely enough of a possibility that she should stay in the race.
I've seen this argument presented several times by different people. It's missing a valuable component. Hillary could win many consecutive contestes by double digits and still not make up the pledged delegate difference- but Obama could win ALL of the remaining contests by big margins and still not reach the required total for victory with pledged delegates alone. In other words, neither Obama nor Hillary can win this without the superdelegates. That's why there is some truth to the Hillary campaign saying the race is still open. Most superdelegates are waiting for a clear winner to come forward, and jump on the bandwagon. But we aren't going to get a clear-cut winner by the numbers; therefore, it all comes down to the PERCEPTION of a winner. The perception of momentum that can't be stopped. Obama has won eleven consecutive states by massive margins- only two or three less than 20 point victories, none less than 10. There is no mistaking he has the momentum. Clinton had huge leads over him in the polls in TX, RI and OH a month ago. He has reduced or eradicated all of those leads in the polls, which also adds to his perceived momentum. As we already know, it comes down to spin. Neither candidate can be truly eliminated mathematically, so the only way to win decisively is to attain the perception of momentum so unstoppable that superdelegates flock to the "winner" and/or the opponent drops out. Obama winning TX and OH after trailing by over 20 will solidify the perception of him as the winner. Anything else will leave room for spin, and both sides will spin like crazy.
Why do people think superdelegates shouldn't defy voter's view (more accurately, the primary voters)? The point of having them is for them to have their own voice. Otherwise, what's the point of having superdelegates? Why don't they just get rid of them long time ago?
Can someone tell me what they do at the caucus? I heard some people asking during early voting whether they will be admitted to the caucus, but wasn't sure what the point of the caucus was after placing their vote already. Is there one giant caucus in Houston, or do they have several caucuses around town at the polling stations where one had voted? Furthermore, is the caucuses just for Democrats or also for Republican primaries as well? Sorry, I'm a noob, and didn't understand this primary process well.
WHAT? Those calculations are not conservative, they are over liberal if you will. They are extreme cases, especially those in states where we all know Obama is the favorite.
OK, I shouldn't have said all. My intention was to highlight those states that could conceivably go to Hillary, such as Ohio today. There's definitely a possibility it goes by a greater margin than 10.
Deckard: I've explained my problem with Hillary's tactics many times and in detail and have never received a similarly detailed response from you (and that was before the Rove-ian 3am phone call tactics she's recently gone to and also before she started mocking the very idea of idealism and thereby the masses of new voters inspired by Obama's candidacy as a central campaign strategy). Instead you've just continually said that what she's done isn't that bad and that he's done the same thing. I've asked you for specific examples and you've decided for whatever reason not to give them. That's fine. That's your prerogative. And it's my prerogative not to vote for the lesser of evils. I'm a Democrat because I agree with the platform and the principles of the party, but I'm not a Yellow Dog Democrat. And I'm under no obligation, by virtue of my party ID, to support anyone that runs with a D next to his or her name. The Clintons -- both of them -- offend me to my core. I think their cynical approach to politics does almost as much to turn off voters and thereby quash their participation as the other party does. And I think that if she stays in after today without picking up a significant net gain in delegates, she's no better than Nader. I like you too and I agree with you on most things political, but not this. You vote your conscience and I will too. Deal?
Certainly true - but on the flipside, the chances of Oregon, Mississippi, Wyoming, Vermont, and North Carolina going to Hillary are remote (barring a huge scandal or whatnot). There's a fairly reasonable chance that any delegates she makes up in today's primaries will be wiped out with blowout losses in Wyoming and Mississippi in the next week. That said, this should all be much clearer in about 8 hours. On a seperate note, lots of interesting things going on in Ohio, it appears. Obama's camp is claiming Clinton may be trying to depress turnout. Clinton's camp says there are irregularities at various places. The SoS says Obama pollwatchers aren't properly credentialied. Lots of bad weather is screwing with voting, and at least one county has had voting extended, by mail, for 10 days - with 5 or 6 counties under watch. And there's this fun nugget, which suggests the Rush campaign may be working: http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/republicans_turning_out_in_ohi.php Republicans Turning Out In Ohio — For The Dem Primary By Eric Kleefeld - March 4, 2008, 4:09PM Thanks in part to the lack of a competitive GOP contest, a lot of Republican voters are crossing over to vote in the Democratic primary — so much so that Democratic ballot requests are out-numbering the Republicans in even a lot of GOP strongholds. Just who is benefitting, though, it not yet clear. In the heavily-GOP Cleveland suburb of Chagrin Falls, an estimated 70% of today's ballots are being cast in the Dem race. And judging by the folks who talked to the Plain Dealer and indicated who they'd voted for, they were breaking mostly for Hillary Clinton. We'll find out tonight just how widespread that pattern was. Exit polls and results should be interesting tonight!
Wyoming's delegates are next to nothing. A blowout win in Mississippi would be meaningful, sure -- but with a full week until that primary, a number of things could happen. The Rush campaign to have Republicans crossover (in a heavy GOP state) could have an impact. Momentum from Texas and Ohio could have an impact. Not that I expect her to win there, but it could be closer to the 55-45 variety than the 65-35 that have been common for Obama in the past month. Like you said, so much will depend on tonight.
(these are all Central time zone) Vermont closes at 6pm and should be called at 6:01pm, probably. Ohio closes at 6:30pm Texas closes at 7pm Texas Caucus closes at 7:15pm Rhode Island closes at 8pm Vermont is an expected blowout for Obama; Rhode Island may be the same for Clinton, though polls closed a bit recently - it probably won't take too long to call regardless, due to the smaller number of voters and precincts. I don't think anyone has a clue how the caucus works, so no telling when those results come in. Unless there's an apparent blowout, it will probably be a minimum of 1-2 hours after polls closing before a race is called in TX or OH. If nothing else, it's good for ratings to not call the races.
from NRO [rquoter]First Word of Exits For Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont This is interesting. One of my sources has gotten two sets of exit poll results. It's unclear whether this is different pollsters or, I suspect, different times of day. For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont. The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont. You'll hear more as I learn more. [/rquoter]
Early exit polls also seem to suggest women are a larger % than normal in both states - not good for Obama. Both black and hispanic voters are up, but that probably is a wash. Change is more important than experience, but not by as much as other states - also bad for Obama (experience people almost universally vote for Clinton; change people are less stratified). http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4386210&page=1
Also worth noting: exit polls (at least in the close races) seem to overstate Obama support. At least, this was the case in NH and Super Tuesday. That effect doesn't seem to occur in states where Obama has dominant leads. I have no idea what causes this. I had heard it was due to exit pollsters being young and being attracted to ask other young people instead of following normal procedure, but that wouldn't explain why it doesn't hold in the blowout states.
Huffington Post has exits: First Exit Polls: VT Obama - 67, Clinton - 33 OH Obama - 51, Clinton - 49 TX Obama - 50, Clinton - 49 RI Obama - 49, Clinton - 49 This is a bit ridiculous. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/04/ohio-texas-vermont-rho_n_89741.html
That's probably the ballgame. Even though the Clinton internals reportedly have her up by 2-3 in Ohio, it appears to be close -- much closer than the polls of the last couple of days showing her up 8-12 points. Seems like a huge victory for Obama, regardless of who actually wins the popular vote. Hillary really needed 8-10 point wins in Ohio and Rhode Island to have a reasonable chance.
I will never trust an exit poll again in my life. But, win or lose, if the races in TX, OH and RI are anywhere near as close as they seem it is great news for Barack. He could lose all three of those states by slim margins and still have a net gain in delegates tonight from VT. I'm not believing any good news until the night is over though.
