I think he would be a fine addition, and who knows what kind of effect a defensive coach like JVG can have on him? I think I actually saw Jon Barry play defense this year, and that was a first in his NBA career. SAR is a massive upgrade at the 4, and a legitimate threat on offense. Not to mention he is a quality human being..... Sign me up in the "yes" camp. DD
Avery Johnson, Derek Fisher, Ron Harper, and John Paxson were all point guards that come playoff time could run their team for +30 minutes a game. That's what makes them starting caliber point guards on championship teams. My question is can Sura or James do that? Sura is the same age as Howard and I think his injury concerns are much more serious than Howard since his game relies on athleticism more than Howards game. I question whether he'll ever be able to play major minutes in the playoffs. I also have doubts about James ability to run a team. There were times during the Dallas series where he looked completely lost and was just aimlessly dribbling the ball trying to figure out what to do. Both players are ideally backup point guards that bring energy off the bench and play about 18 minutes a game (like Keyon Dooling). Neither should be playing +30 minutes on a championship level team. I don't disagree that the Rockets will eventually need to find a replacement for Howard, I don't understand why it's a bigger priority than pg or sg just because we we have backup guards. Howard is just one year removed from being a 17/7 player. Between him, Wesley, and Sura, he's the closest to being a starting caliber player. I also don't think finding the power forward equivalent to Barry and James is all that difficult. The Rockets could probably get a player like Corliss Williamson (who I consider to be on the same level as Barry and James) for pretty much nothing.
Depth is a nice luxury, but it's not a necessity like having a great starting 5. The Rockets pinning their championship hopes on bench players like James and Barry is like the Heat pinning their hopes on Rasual Butler and Keyon Dooling. Championships are won with starters. The Rockets do not have any starters in the backcourt. They have 4 guards that are best suited for the backup role at this stage in their careers. Check out the minute distribution for the starting lineups of the final 4 teams in the playoffs: Shaq 32.6 Haslem 35.6 Jones 39.9 Wade 40.6 Jones 33.3 Amare 40.1 Marion 42.3 Johnson 39.4 Richardson 37.6 Nash 40.7 Ben Wallace 38.8 Rasheed Wallace 33.0 Prince 41.6 Hamilton 43.4 Billups 38.9 Mohammed 23.1 Duncan 36.5 Bowen 33.9 Ginobili 32.5 Parker 36.9 Outside of Mohammed, these teams all have their starters playing major minutes. Conclusion: This whole 1-2 punch thing that the Rockets have going on in the backcourt is not going to cut it in the playoffs.
from New Jack: While I agree with Desert Scar's assessment, this is a too valid question. I think the problem is our management is determined to see what Sura looks like healthy. I also think JVG just told James to shoot first and ask questions later against the Mav's. The combination of the two is what bothers me. Sura just stopped looking for Yao when he came back from the injury after the all-star break. And James "microwave" comments just don't make it seem like we really have a real pg, does it? The problem is we have worse problems. Wesley lost a step in the last month of the season, and he's really the only 2 we have that JVG trusts defensively. I think if we can reduce his minutes he has value here, but with his expiring contract... Other than T-Mac, our speed at the 3 is non-existant : garbage players should drool if T-Mac gets a different assignment. And the 4 spot, well I'll be honest, I thought when JHo went down Spoon could still do what he's done in the past - hit a 15' shot, grab some boards etc. It didn't happen. Padgett seems to be completely hit or miss and the deficiency became painful to watch. It's offseason so I'm damn sure not going to use the "i" word, but we simply can't afford JHo to go down with our current roster. And the guy still doesn't have a clean bill of health. The 4 is the greatest need. When we get good point production there we're tough to beat. When we don't, too often everybody not named T-Mac or Yao look pretty bad. It's crazy, we have major problems at 3 starting positions and yet I really loved that team. We seemingly should be able to "tweak" this roster, but when you really look at it we have T-Mac and Yao and... damn. Re-sign Deke and Barry anyway.
Hi Scar: Good analysis, but which PF's really abused JHo last year? I know Dirk went off one night for 52, but overall I don't remember us getting really abused by any of the PF's after JHo got firmly entrenched, say the winning stretch just before the all-star break until he was injured. Let's just write off the 1st third of the season since no one could really figure out what was going on, including JVG. I think JHo did OK as I have told you before. We can definitely use a good backup PF though so I agree with you to a certain extent. Why does every one think Kwame is going to demand such a big pay day? 7.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and EFF 7.8 is not that great. I know Vin said he was making a big comeback, but I think hr could be persuaded not to come back for the right price. That leaves Spoon & Padgett. BTW: I've read a couple of places that Padgett may be off to greater rewards, if you can believe it. We did however get abused by 1's, 2's and 3's especially in the playoffs. So, I am pretty sure we need a shutdown defender (ala Bruce Bowen) at the 2/3. So I cast my vote for Ron Artest, any way we can get him, or a Ron Artest Lite (?), draft a 2/3 or a 1, and get a backup PF.
I am not saying for sura Sura/James/Spanoulis are the answers at the 1s, but I am a lot more confident in them than what we have at PF and SG. Given a more formidable SG, I am not sure these guys can't get it done, like I said if Sura/James at PG is the weakest of your 5 spots that isn't too bad. I think at worst we can wait until mid season or next year to add a new PG in the mix--this can't be said for SG and definetly not for the PF. JH did his role just fine, but you are still what talking about a 10-11 & 6-7 type player. We need two guys who can do that. Further, if Amare can get 30+ on the Spurs, Duncan 20+ on everybody, it shows great PFs are going to abuse any opposing PFs defensively, including JH. But have an opposing PF who can get you 15-20 + 8-10 boards (SAR) or having guys to make the other guy work, get a few block shots, and do some of his own damage (perhaps Swift) overall helps you out. But getting close to nothing from guys like Padget, Spoon and Baker, that kills you. BTW the Spurs won a title with a (failing rook) Parker, Claxton and Kerr spreading out the pivital 1 minutes. Mike James played 20MPG on a world champion Pistons squad, I think about 15MPG in the playoffs behind a terrific Chancey Billips and with another solid vet Hunter in the mix. Again, I am not convinced Sura at say 26 minutes and James at say 22 minutes is going to kill you even deep in the playoffs. They may not win many playoff match-ups, but I think they can hold their own and do some of their own damage against most teams. I'd take my chances with them against elite PGs a lot more than with JH to elite PFs or Wesley/Barry to elite SG.
In the 2003 playoffs, Tony Parker played 33.9 minutes a game and averaged 14.7 points. Speedy Claxton and Steve Kerr were pretty much non-factors in the playoffs playing only 13.6mpg and 4.6mpg each. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/basketball/nba/stats/playoffs/2003sa.htm The trend during these playoffs has been that power forwards are playing the center position. Dirk spent the majority of his minutes at the 5 in both the Houston and Phoenix series. Amare has been playing the 5 the whole playoffs. And Duncan has spent most of his time playing center with Robert Horry playing the power forward position (Horry has been getting more PT than Mohammad). If this trend continues, the Rockets should be more worried about how Yao matches up with them rather than how their power forward matches up with them.
I can go to war with them. I'm a little concerned about this. Last year, JHo didn't prosper until he had the starting role and MoT was on IL. Everyone said they were too close to each other in game and presented no change-of-pace. Yet, the year before MoT was in contention, at least on this board, for 6th man of the year, coming in for Cato with a great change-of-pace. You'll no argument from me on this issue. That b/u PF is an important issue. About.com, in their rumors section, said we were looking at Danny Fortson or Tony Battie if that failed. I did not post it because it wasn't dated and I couldn't tell how old it was. I suppose they would be backing up JHo, and if it is true then we must be going after a big '2' or '2/3'. Got to go with you here. This is Numero Uno!! At some point soon we will have to replace Sura at the 1, and JHo at the 4, but we have to replace Wesley/Barry NOW! Bonzi or Artest or ???, but we got to do it now. Thanks for chatting again! We are getting closer, I think. After Chicago Workouts and the end of playoffs things should start to POP!!!
To Desert Scar, New Jack, krocket and others: Thank you for the intelligent discussion. It's been tough for me this offseason because there isn't enough Rockets stuff going on. Threads like this keep me going. For those that agree with me on our greatest need being the backcourt: We are a small minority but not as small as I thought. Back to the issue. Desert Scar, if you think we can rely on Sura or Wesley to play well during next year's playoffs, think about how old they are and think about Sura's injuries (esp. his back). The long regular season will wear them down and they will get abused even more next year because they will be another step slower. This is a huge risk we cannot take, even when you ignore the substandard play. Isn't it amazing the only player in our backcourt who has any chemistry with Yao is Jon Barry, our #4 guard? We all want Yao to become a 25/10 superstar ASAP. The biggest step we can take in that direction (besides Yao getting better) is to give him a post passer that can find him (besides T-Mac). How many times did the announcers blabber about Yao not getting the ball; then JVG calls timeout; next play, T-Mac feeds Yao for the slam or layup. He makes it look soooo easy. The fact neither Sura, nor James nor Wesley could do this is a crime! None of them have the instinct and they are too old to learn it. One thing we all agree on: SG is in worse shape than PG. IMO, not by much. I am not at all comfortable with Sura as our starter next season. He is a nasty dog, and I love having him on our team. He plays bigger than what he is. But the primary role of a PG is to make other players better and Sura flunks this test because he doesn't have real PG skills. If we get a starting SG who is an above average post passer, this could make up for Sura/James' shortcomings. But we cannot go into next season with backcourt starters like these. I'm confident Wesley and his $6MM expiring contract will be dealt before the season starts. A very real possibility is we make a major trade next February, especially since we will probably still have Spoon, Moochie, V Baker & Ward and their $16.3MM in expiring contracts. None of us wants to wait this long but it is quite likely. Last repetitive thought: Juwan Howard fits this team. Get him a backup by trade or draft a future replacement. He's good enough for another year but we can't be left with a gaping hole in our roster if he misses some games.
I want Billups, Sheed Wallace, and Prince; but if TMAC won't move back to the 2 guard then I'll settle for Rip Hamilton.
Did opposing PG's average almost 21 points a game against us like opposing PF's did? No? Okay---enjoy being in the minority then. So if age and injuries are such a concern, why is everybody all goo goo ga ga about AD? And "substandard play?" Wow, didn't realize are backcourt was THAT bad. Sura is by no means any form of a long-term answer at PG. But saying Sura doesn't make his teammates better is foolish. Refresh my memory: what was our record without him? And let's not get carried away with this whole "post passing" rant you've been going on. There is no reason Yao shouldn't be touching the ball on every possession---probably the only thing we're going to agree on. The only thing is, he actually does touch the ball on almost every possession. As you all know, Yao gets timid out there sometimes and if that's the case, you can't blame a guard for not passing it to the guy if he looks uncomfortable in the post. [.....or if we have a top 5 player out on the perimeter who NEVER isn't ready for the ball] T-Mac's playmaking ability goes without saying. Any time we run a pick-and-roll with him, it's almost guarenteed to be effective. There's not a PG out there besides Kidd that anyone has fantasized about bringing in, that would actually make T-Mac our team's 2nd best playmaker. And for those of us that have actually played basketball before, how hard is it REALLY to dribble the ball down the court and make a post feed? You make it sound as if NBA players like Sura, Wesley and James aren't capable of doing this.
But guess who was in the game on some of the most critical 4th quarter plays that closed out the finals? It wasn't Parker. Kerr was in the most critical moments of game 5 and Claxton in game 6. After the Nets series was 2-2, Pop didn't have a ton of confidence in Parker down the stretch. And we don't have to bring up the Suns series again. IMO we need to think long term PF NOW--the timing is perfect. We have a full MLE with lots of decent options on the market (SAR/Swift/Evans/DM--though DM is not LT, he is OK or 2-3 more years) and a fairly flooded FA year. We also have probably the best pick (#24) on a decent draft year too (particularly for 4s). Let's get a PF one of these methods to share the burden with JH now and build for the future--priority #1. Priority #2 is SG/SF. It will be a lot easier to address SG/back-up SF later in FA (or possibly draft if we score a 4 on FA). There are lots more player options for cheap traditionally for non-bigs, and there tends to be less of a premium to trade for this type of player than for a legit PF. Priority #3, PG spot--like I said unless a great deal jumps out us I think at minimum we see what we got in Sura/James/Spanoulis and wait until the trade deadline if it seems like a disaster. I can live with doing nothing this offseason at PG--particularly if Spanoulis shows ANY potential. Addressing PF and SG/back-up SF are musts, but since PF can be a much harder position to address, do that 1st.
The Spurs did not rely on their backup point guards nearly as much as the Rockets would be forced to rely on their backup point guard. Claxton and Kerr may have had a good quarter here or there, but in the long run, the Spurs won the championship because they had very good point guard in Parker that was capable of playing 34 minutes a game. Mutombo had a couple of good quarters in the Dallas series, that does not mean the Rockets should be pinning their championship hopes on him. The Rockets trying to win a championship with Sura and James is like the Spurs trying to win a championship with only Claxton and Kerr at point guard. My problem with your assessment is that Juwan Howard is our 3rd best player. Even though that's probably not a good thing, he is. He was a 17 ppg scorer just a year ago and he's been a proven starter his entire career, unlike Sura who's 32 now and has been a backup for most of his career. Last year's stats may not show it, but that's partially because of the slow start from Howard and partially because of Van Guny's offensive system. So why should getting a new pf be our #1 priority when our 3rd best player is a power forward. The Rockets have 4 more years invested in him. They have to be able to squeeze out at least one more starting year out of him. I trust his ability to give us 30-35 quality minutes a game in the playoffs much more than anyone in our backcourt. My description of each position is this. Power Forward: decent starter with no backup Shooting Guard: 2 backup guards that are a year or 2 away from retirement Point Guard: 2 quality backup point guards If I were ranking those position based on those descriptions, I would say the power forward position is in the best shape, followed by pg, and sg. decent starter > 2 backups. The way I see it, we don't need a power forward that can match Duncan/Dirk/Amare point for point. That's Yao's job. Our power forward only has to match the production of Erick Dampier, Nazr Mohammad, Udonic Haslem, etc. Juwan Howard is capable of doing that. Our front line, even with an aging Howard, is still one of the best in the league. However, the backcourt is one of the least talented in the league. The Suns, Pistons, Spurs backcourts completely blows ours out of the water. That's why if I were to prioritize things, finding a starting guard would be #1. It doesn't matter if it's a starting point guard or a shooting guard. If it's a point guard like Daniels or Stoudamire, just move Sura to the 2 for the time being. But there's absolutely positively no way the Rockets can compete in the playoffs next year with a starting backcourt of Sura and Wesley. We were destroyed by a broken down Finley and a role player in Jason Terry. Think of what Nash/Johnson, Billups/Hamilton, Parker/Ginobili would have done to us.
I'm kind of siding this way as well. If you look at the final four teams that were left in the playoffs, they all had a quick, athletic quality starting backcourts. Spurs-Ginobili, Parker; Suns-Nash, Johnson; Pistons-Billups, Hamilton; Heat-Jones, Wade. We were beat in the Dallas series by the same thing - backcourt speed and quickness. I'm all for bringing in that perfect PF, but we can be a real contender with Juwon as our starting PF (granted if we get a nice backup that compliments him well). I can't say the same thing for our backcourt. You add SAR, Marshall, Chandler or whoever the PF 'flavor the month' is, we still wouldn't have been able to keep up with Dallas or any of the four teams I previously mentioned above. Their guards would have tore us a part. I like who we have now. They are a solid group of players who are smart, don't make mistakes and play hard. But, this is all they bring to the team. Our guards have to be quick enough to not allow penetration which screws up JVG's defensive system and puts Yao in foul trouble, and they have to be able to attack on the other end. Our current roster did neither real well or real consistent. Big men win championships, but everything starts with the guard play.
There is no 'greatest need', there are great needs. This squad is not currently a lock to return to the play-offs, let alone challenge for the big prize.
As long as TMac and Yao stay healthy,we will go deeper.Surely no matter what CD does,we won't have as many injuries next year.And I would wager we will be making 1 significant upgrade and the rest role players. Assuming CD does his usual,we are contenders...next year..
xiki, we all know this team needs more than one change. Greatest need simply means which upgrade will improve us the most. Most feel it's the PF; some of us say it's the backcourt. When Bob Sura finally got his legs under him last year, he wasn't chopped liver. He definitely gave this team a boost in the right direction, but consider he was replacing Charlie Ward and Tyronne Lue. (Seriously, I know Sura had some very good games). By the time the playoffs started, he was pretty close to chopped liver because of his injuries. Next year by the start of the playoffs, both Sura and Wesley will have fermented into chopped liver if they are starters throughout the regular season. If you told me the Bob Sura we saw during mid-season last year would appear during the 2006 playoffs, we might could get by. With his injuries and age, this is very unlikely. We may never see that player again and Mike James is completely unacceptable as a starting PG for this team. David Wesley comes to play every game. He gives it all he has, but he just doesn't have enough because he's too old and too short to be a starter for us now. He and Sura are on the decline and whatever we get from them this year will be less than last year. Wesley will be 35 right after the season (hopefully) opens. Sura is 32. Status quo in the starting backcourt dooms us, IMO. Status quo at the starting PF (while bringing in a real backup) can work. BTW, when I say post passing I don't even mean the PnR. T-Mac and Yao worked that to death in the playoffs very well. Neither did I mean toss it to Yao when he's 15 ft away from the basket. Yes, anyone can dribble and do that. I mean hit Yao down low when he springs open for 1 second and is very likely to score. The pass can be thrown from up top or from penetration. At the NBA level when defenses key on Yao, this is not easy for all players. If our current guards CAN do this. Fine; they just never did even though T-Mac showed them how all during the season. And who said anything about making T-Mac our 2nd best playmaker? Anybody? We need someone else on the perimeter TO BE a playmaker who will learn Yao's tendencies and set him up consistently. I repeat: Neither Sura nor James nor Wesley do this. We all agree Yao must get better at establishing himself down low next year but from watching the games it wasn't always his fault. Our guards weren't looking and they just plain missed him time after time. hardwood, I betcha we will have at least 2 new starters by November in this order of likelihood: SG, PG & PF.
apostolic3,I hope your right.Like many,I want to see the stud PF that can D up and board first,but would love to have a hybrid 1/2 like Daniels in there too. One of the role players I would like to see picked up this year is Eric Williams. On the offense....I agree we need someone who will get Yao the ball on the blocks when he has his man sealed.With the extra size, strength,experience... and emphasis here,his power game should open up.Besides,when we get to the point that we're running at least half our offense through the big guy,the Rockets are going to be oh so deadly...la machine.
New Jack, you spell out your argument well, I just disagree. I think JH, BS, DW and MJ are all about equal players relative to their position. That all are what I would call marginal starters, or excellent backups. JB is just a notch below, and is an excellent speciality back-up. Further, they all are more productive on crappy teams (e.g., JH with Orl, Sura with Atl, DW with NO) but on a good team like the Rockets they are 10-13PPG guys. Further, if any stand out, I think it is probably Sura, who exceeded JH in points, about equaled him in rebounds, and of course was better in assists and steals. Further, Sura, James and Wesley all surpassed JH in PPS--the best marker of efficiency. Overall I would say JH was our 3rd most valuable player because we had no other servicable NBA 4, but I don't think he is our 3rd best, and if he is it is by a hair. I just don't see how one could conclude we are better of at the 4 spot with JH and nobody than at PG with two mediocre starters (one the same age as JH, one 3 years younger) plus our current best prospect (Spanoulis). Even DW + JB for SGs is close to JH and nobody for PFs, and my point here is it is easier and cheaper to find that SG/SF upgrade later in FA, or easier to pull a trade later.
