Fair enough. I prefer SAR for that very reason- I think he's capable of being a spot up midrange shooter (like Juwan), but he's also able to create his own shot which Marshall can't. I don't think anyone will argue Marshall is the better talent vs. SAR, and I think it's precisely what JVG was talking about in taking risks- you know what Marshall will give you (though I think it's impossible for him to repeat that 3P%), but with SAR there's higher risk, and higher ceiling. I checked this out- our record when Howard scores 14+ (a modest number) is 9-2. One of the losses Yao scored just 13, the other was in the dark ages known as the Rod Strickland era. We're 6-0 when Juwan scored 17+.
The Pro-Rahim crowd seems to be entirely missing the point. I would most definitely be excited if we were somehow able to acquire Sharif for next season. A frontcourt of Rahim-McGrady-Yao is scary good offensively, skill wise maybe tops in the league (hmm...I just said that for effect but now that I think about it, it IS isn't it?). You could easily sell me on Rahim. We would probably win like 57 games with him in the lineup. Or maybe more, we did start out 6-11 last year. And he's a damn good player as has been said - smart, efficient rebounder, good offensively.... But we won't advance deep in the playoffs. Rahim does nothing to mask our biggest team weakness - Yao's lack of defensive mobility. We have to have interior athleticism or we will continually get destroyed in the playoffs. Many have pointed out that Rahim has averaged 10 boards a game throughout his career - but he's a space rebounder. We already have Yao for that. We need that guy that can go out of his area to block a shot or secure that long defensive rebound late in the game. If we don't, we will be absolutely destroyed. You have to remember, we probably only have one shot at this. Les Alexander is not some billionaire that we can use the full MLE every year. Once you sign Rahim for his $40 million, that's probably it at the '4' until he's gone. Oh we'll be better with Rahim, alot better. But not good enough. I don't like the idea of locking up so much money on a guy who's not that "fit", especially when we're not in a position to be able to cover up mistakes. Didn't we learn our lesson with this the last decade? You can convince me on Rahim. But I don't want him.
The fact that Howard, a power forward that has consistently been a +17ppg player his entire career, comes here and scores +14 points only eleven times the entire season goes to show how little this team depended on his scoring last season. I find it very hard to believe that Howard is not capable of averaging at least 14 points a game if Van Gundy truly felt getting a lot offense from the power forward position was a necessity.
I just hope we get somebody. Remember all the talk last year about free agents post the T-Mac trade? Splash! Charlie Ward. I know Bob Sura exceeded expectations, but in my opinion, his ceiling has been reached (i know he was hurt, but he played his best bball this year on the best team he's been on in a while. And at best, he's still too slow on D, though his 3pter became good and his rebounding was great). So there's no ideal acquisition out there (other than Darius Miles through a trade), but hopefully we get one of those guys: SAR, Marshall, or Swift. Cause it would totally suck again if by the end of the Summer we get SPLASH, Mark Madsen.
Last year the Rockets took the conservative route going with Sura and then Ward. This at a time where teams were giving Cardinal and Fisher 6 year Max MLE monies. So the Rockets did alright in free agency and didnt over extend themselves or further handicap themselves. But this offseason they probably are going to have to be a little more aggressive. And since they have contracts coming off the books within a year they can take that approach with the MLE. I think their best bet is to target one quality player and give them the full MLE for 4 years. It's time the Rockets focus more on quality over quantity in terms of players on their roster.
Well said. JH fits right in with our offense. SAR will have the same 1/2 season learning curve on finding his role that JH has already learned. We already have 2 ISO players (Yao & T-Mac) and don't need a 3rd. THANK YOU. THANK YOU. THANK YOU. THANK YOU. THANK YOU. New Jack, you get it! Let's put our money into getting 2 new starters in the backcourt, a decent backup PF (draft?), and we can make a championship run next season. Adding SAR will barely improve us, if at all. Adding Swift could be a huge mistake.
Cabbage- Which PF would you rather have? I sort of understand your logic, but I don't see how SAR doesn't improve our interior athleticism. Sure, he can't jump out of the building like Swift and Chandler, but he is athletic enough to play SF or PF. With a little help from JVG, I don't see SAR having any problem guarding a guy like Dirk or other mobile PFs. Like you said, a SAR/TMac/Yao frontcourt would be tops in the league skill wise, so I don't see how you can pass that up if we can get him for the MLE. But if a guy like Swift can be had for the same price, I'd go with Swift.
1st, our defensive statistics were a lot more impressive than our offensive statistcs. SAR helps major in our bigger area for growth. Still, we can improve defensively, even if more incrementally. 1st part is Yao getting smarter and stronger (brute strength + stamina). 2nd we can improve a peremiter defense by adding a player like Raja Bell or Spree or AD on the perimeter (or drafting that athletic SG/SF) through a much more minor move. Also, I don't see SAR slowing our defensive progress, he certainly quicker than JH or Padget, surely better in switches or rotations, and also more able to get to the off rebound a lot better theCabbage referes to. Not that he is great at these things, but consider the alternatives. Honestly overall, SAR and Swift I see pretty close and would be ecstaic with either, #1 and #2 as targets. But I slightly favor SAR because he is more a known quantity. DM is fine a player given our current needs but he is about the same age as JH--that makes him the 3rd or 4th option. If you want a defender and rebounder, Reggie Evans is the choice. If we can't draft someone like Ike or Simein, I would probably prefer him over DM if he signs cheaper. Like another said, a PF with all the things we want--multiple productive years left, excellent defender and weak side shot blocker, solid rebounder, solid offensive player, and no character/heart questions--those guys start at 10mil a year, not 5-6 mil players (MLE). We have to meet as many criteria as we can. Realistically, SAR to me is #1, Swift is #2, with some decent but notch down 3rd 4th and 5th options.
from Nikestrad: Stats are always deceptive but they reveal a great deal. If you look at our team you're likely to think two things: 1) T-Mac needs less reponsibilities and 2) Yao needs help that's not named T-Mac. I say keep JHo no matter what happens. He gets Yao and he's the first to do so IMHO. When Yao's going to shoot, when he's in trouble, when to get to the glass et al. Hell, he may have have grabbed T-Mac by the throat and got him to look closer too. Yao and T-Mac did develop chemistry, but Yao needs more and a different kind of help. Our 4's are unguarded most of the time. For those of you that view SAR as a slight upgrade over JHo consider how significant a slight upgrade could be. The way defenses are thrown at us, they make us beat them from the perimeter. The combo of SAR/JHo could change that in a hurry. Neither are ideal, but SAR tops the list of possibilities. IF Stro could routinely drain an open 15' shot I'd pay him, if Marshall had the potential to elevate his game I'd think signing him wasn't a complete waste of time. Other than kids JVG won't play, SAR seem's to have upside more than anyone else that we can get.
Oh, sorry Desert Scar your're post covered it and you've kept me sane in reading through the SAR threads. Thank you.
The impact of an excellent pf next to Yao cannot be neglected. Yao has never been able to consistently play with a solid power forward. Kenny was a half a season teammate. MoT helps out Yao offensively with his jumper, but on defense and rebounding he's a liability. Kato helps out Yao on defense and rebounding but is an offensive liability. Now Howard started to compliment Yao by playing a bit on both ends of the floor and the Rockets started to take off. It's unfortunate for such a tandem to be shortened by injury and ailment. So there is a chance to have a player who's an upgrade over Howard, I think Yao and T-Mac will be benefitted a lot from such a player. Adjustment isn't a problem, if Howard can adjust to his new role, so can Shareef.
You admit Howard helped Yao at both ends of the floor and the Rockets "started to take off". How much would a slight improvement at PF help our team? Answer: Very slightly. To borrow your choice of words: The impact of an excellent PG on this team cannot be neglected. Yao has never played with a point guard who could feed him the ball properly. Yao and T-Mac will benefit a lot from a player who can drive & dish for slams. This, by itself, will make both Yao and T-Mac better players. Both of their FG% would increase and our offensive efficiency would improve significantly. Next, try to get a shooting guard who is good enough to surpass JH (or whatever PF we get) to be our 3rd option on offense. Somebody who will dump 25 points on teams when they focus too much on stopping Yao & T-Mac.
Sura/James makes our PG position much more solid than JH/Padget/Spoon/Baker do at PF. Rigth now, if JH goes down, we are screwed--not the position we want to be in with a 32 year old PF coming off an injury. The type of PF that might be available for an MLE (SAR/Swift/Evans/DM) would be a much more important upgrade as a starter or bench player than any PG (Watson, AD?) that might be available for the MLE relative to Sura/James. Besides, bringing SAR in not only slightly improves the starting group (SAR > JH), it majorly improves our back-up 4 spot (JH >>Padget/Spoon/Baker), substantially increasing the 48 minute production. (Additionally, SAR also helps the back-up 3 spot quality as a secondary role or Swift the back-up 5 spot in terms of depth). Unless you have an Amare or KG who can give you 40+ minutes of great PF play, you want at least two PFs who are quality NBA players.
Your points are well taken. I happen to believe that we are going to get a PF before free agency comes around and we have the opportunity to use the MLE. PF is obviously the priority right now. I look for Kurt Thomas or somebody like that in trade. Then we can use our MLE to attract AD.
I liked that SPLASH stuff going on earlier. Anyone think that CD should talk to Ray Allen about SLASH coming to the Rockets and giving him a better contract when money issues straighten out? Are there any stars in the NBA that want to push the Rockets over the edge? There has to be someone out there that sees us as the future team to beat and will take less money. Jason Kidd seems to think so. Maybe Yao won't want the max?
Yeah, maybe. My point was I think we are going to get a PF first, through trade. Shoot, maybe it will be a combination of Ratliff, Miles, and Portland's #1, for expirings and our #1.
At this point, I don't think finding bench players should even be a concern for the Rockets. The first step to building a championship team is to find the right starters to put next to their star players. THEN they worry about finding backups for them in case of injury. Just like the Suns, Pistons, Heat, and Spurs have done. Wesley and Sura in the backcourt are not the right starters. They were nice stopgap players for last season, but we're never going to win a championship with them as starters, even if they have good backups. Come playoff time, it's not going to matter if we have one point guard on the roster the caliber of Sura/James or 5 point guards on the team the caliber of Sura/James, if none of them are starting caliber point guards that are capable of playing +35 minutes a game in the playoffs, than our point guard situation is not much better off than our power forward position with Juwan and 4 scrubs. The elite teams of the NBA play their top 5 players probably around 80% of the time during playoff time. Bench play is just very insignificant.
Bench play is significant in the playoffs, history doesn't need to go back long to address this point. Without Mike James and Jon Barry the Rockets would have trouble reaching game 7, without a legit power forward we played small forwards at the pf spot. Jerry Stackhouse and D.Armstrong played their role well against us. Depth won't hurt and can come in handy. Different cards deal with different foes. The Rockets have quality backup in James and Barry(assumes he comes back) at the guards position, but very thin at the pf spot. Adding a pf starter like Shareef does not only improve the depth but also upgrade the whole spot. With the ability to create his own shot the need for a playmaking pg will be reduced. With his prolific scoring ability the need for a scoring pg will be reduced. With the ability to rebound well our major weakness at rebounding will be improved. With his quicker speed and better athleticism our interior D will be improved. With his finishing skills our near non existent pf finishing play will be improved - it should be noticed that JH, Spoon and Padgett all have trouble finishing around the basket against surrounding defense. On the other hand, Sura is a great rebounder, a play making guard in place of Bob Sura will very likely reduce our rebounds total. Plus, our major weakness is the thinness at the pf spot as well as non insurance in case of JH going down again, if the issue is left intact we'd be hanging our season on JH's health which isn't wise at this point given the hard lesson. Our major weakness at the perimeter is defensive speed and consistent outside shooting, so it would be an overkill if the resource is spent on a prolific scoring sg, or a pure pg. Add in the fact that quality big men are harder to come by than guards, it can said that strategically upgrading the pf spot is more important than upgrading the one or two spot. although such upgrades certainly help. There is more than one way to improve the Rockets, IMO SAR just happen to have the most qualities the Rockets need. I worry about if he's attainable than whether he should be pursued.
While I don't disgree in principle that the starting 5 needs to be in place 1st, and I disagree with your assestment of our players. (I start out assuming Deke and Barry return.) I think next to center (Yao/Deke) and SF (Tmac) PG with Sura/James is our most solid position. Stick Sura/James on most of the Spurs, Lakers and Bulls championship teams and I think they pretty well do the roles of Avery J, Claxton, Parker as a rook, Fisher, Ron Harper, Steve Kerr, John Paxton, etc. Sura/James are a 1-2 punch good enough, and with enough positive attribtes, to keep opponents honest. If you worst spot in your starting lineup is Sura or James as your 1, and you have an even better Tmac/Yao center to your team, that well could be a championship team. Our best young current prospect is also a 1 as well giving us another potential growth point (Spanoulis). Basically, I think I am fine to have a "look see" year with Sura/James and maybe Spanoulis--I think it is a decent enough combination now and maybe long term to be patient for at least 1 year and focus on other greater needs. SG is slightly weaker short term with Wesley and Barry--both have areas of greater explotation by opponents SGs than Sura or James do at the 1. Long term it is much worse as both guys are like 35. We will definetly need to do something by next offseason and maybe sooner--via the draft this year, a FA late in this offseason, or by the trade deadline. That said we don't have to panic, Wesley and Barry are not aweful for another year. Second, and more importantly, unlike PFs, there is a much better chance to get a low priced servicable SG late in free agency--somelike Raja Bell, Spree or maybe Kittles for half the MLE if we still have it or the veterans exemption. Also, if Spanoulis can produce this year, it may also free up Sura to fortify this spot. PF is our weakest position short term, with almost as bad long term options as SG. JH will be 32 and coming off an injury, and even when healthy is arguably our weakest starter relative to his competition (either him or Wesley). The rest of our PFs (Pagdet, Spoon, Baker) are bit players (ideally no more than emergency players come playoff time) more explotable than other back-ups like James or Barry. Long term, we have no PF on the roster who we can reasonable expected to produce 3+ years out. Another complicating factor is next to the C spot, the PF spot tends to be the hardest and most expensive to fill via FA or trade(how long have we been trying?), much more likely to find late bargains in FA for the SG, SF or PG spot--making it more imperative to address PF 1st and have the MLE at our disposal to make sure we can strike. So 1st step this offseason is adding a 4 who gets us short term help AND puts us in decent positions 3-4-5 years out. By this criteria SAR, Swift and Evans would be ideal. DM is a stop gap, but him and JH could probably hold the fort for at least 2 more years while we keep on looking in the late draft, trade or FA. If we could draft Diagu or Simien, and we are confident they are ready for 20MPG this year of tough PF play behind JH that might be an option. But I don't think they will be available at 24 if they do grade out like this--we may have to consider moving up, how feasible this is I have no idea. I view it as more of a long shot to address this spot via draft. 2nd step this offseason is adding a SG/SF who gives us size, defense, and who hopefully can knock down the open jump shot even if overall they would not be called a special offensive player. Signing Raja Bell or drafting a comparable player (if we use the MLE for our PF) would do this. Kittles or Spree could be a couple year stop gap (2 year veterans exemption deal). Again I don't think we make a move for another PG unless their is a clearly advantagous trade offer (AD for Wesley or Sura or maybe James). We are OK at a minimum evaluating what we got at PG (Sura/James/Spanoulis) through the early part of next season.
