Majority of Americans Don't Approve of Job Bush is Doing, Say War Was a Mistake.

What struck me when I read all these stories late last night when they first posted, was just how many of them there were. MSNBC had one too, that I don't think's been posted. At pollingreport.com, there are even more examples of how reliable these polls are. Across the board they all say the same thing. FoxNews was the only one that still showed Bush's approval at a net plus (I think it was 50-47).

I remember a lot of months ago when I posted that "the trend is good" thread and people like Jorge told me I just didn't know how to read polls (Bill Hicks does a bit on Rodney King where one of the officers says, "It's all in how you look at it. For example, if you play the tape backwards it shows us help King up and send him on his way.").

It really is amazing how similar this is to the situation with the first Bush. A year ago, the Dems running looked like sacrificial lambs (as with 92 when no heavyweight Dems wanted to run). Conservatives (and even parody Conservatives like TJ) were promising a landslide. Folks opposing the war were called fringe radicals, outside the mainstream. Now we are the mainstream. The trend is good.

 

Poll: Support for Bush, Iraq war dropping
Kerry leads Bush in matchups

(CNN) -- As Americans express growing unease about Iraq, President Bush's job approval rating has taken a hit, according to a poll released Friday by CNN and Time magazine.

That development appears to be helping Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. He wins the support of 51 percent of likely voters, compared to 46 percent for Bush. In February, Bush was ahead of Kerry by two percentage points.

If Independent Ralph Nader is among the choices, Kerry gets 49 percent, Bush 44 percent and Nader 6 percent.

Bush's overall job approval rating fell from 49 percent to 46 percent since the last CNN/Time poll on April 8, while his disapproval rating rose from 47 percent to 49 percent -- the first time that more people disapproved of Bush's job performance than approved.

More people than not believe that going to war with Iraq was the right thing to do, but that number has declined 48 percent in this poll, compared to 53 percent in April. And 56 percent of those polled say the war is not worth U.S. lives and other costs.

The poll was conducted by telephone Wednesday and Thursday, at a time when the scandal over the U.S. abuse of Iraqi prisoners was dominating news coverage, along with the beheading of American Nicholas Berg in Iraq.

The margin of error for the total sample of 1,001 adult Americans is 3.1 percentage points, but that margin varied for questions specifically asked of smaller groups, such as likely voters.

The prison abuse scandal stunned Americans, 27 percent of whom said it made them "less supportive" of the war in Iraq. And 55 percent of those polled said Bush is doing a poor job of handling Iraq, compared to 39 percent who said he was doing a good job.

But a majority of Americans expressed support for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld -- under fire for his handling of the abuse reports -- with 57 percent saying he should not resign.

On the question of the war, only 41 percent of those polled believe the United States is winning, although 60 percent said the country can win and 52 percent said the country will win.

Democrats were decidedly more pessimistic on the matter -- 65 percent said the United States is not winning the war, 44 percent said it can't win and 52 percent said it won't win.

Bush and Kerry
Kerry and Bush are essentially tied over who would handle Iraq better -- 46 percent to 43 percent.

Bush appears to have an advantage over Kerry on the war on terrorism with 49 percent saying he would do a better job, compared to 42 percent for Kerry. He also had the edge in "moral values" -- 46 percent to 42 percent.

On the question of who would do a better job, Kerry had big leads on health care, protecting the environment, reducing the deficit and reducing unemployment.

But even in the fight against terrorism -- one of Bush's strengths in many polls -- this poll showed a split over whether Bush is doing a good job. Forty-six of those polled said he was, but 47 percent said he was doing a poor job.

The poll also indicated that Bush's troubles may hurt the GOP in other races. On the generic ballot for congressional races, Democrats have a 13 point lead among likely voters.

Overall, those polled said they believed things are going well in the country, but they expressed growing concern about Bush.

Those with "doubts and reservations" about Bush's ability to lead the country rose from 55 percent to 59 percent while those who believe the president can be trusted as a leader dropped from 44 percent to 39 percent, since early February.

Abused prisoners
Fifty percent think there was a cover-up of the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, although 63 percent said they believe it is limited to a "few individual soldiers."

Those participating in the poll want to see the soldiers court-martialed, but more -- 68 percent -- want to see their supervisors face the same procedure. And the sides are nearly even -- 45 percent saying yes and 44 percent saying no -- on whether the generals in charge of Iraq should face court-martial.

Regardless of who is responsible, the pollsters found that Americans don't want to see any more pictures of it -- 66 percent said no when asked if all other photographs should be released, while 30 percent said yes.

 

Wow. Bush's advantage on terror was about the only thing he had going for him, with double digit leads over the last few months. Now it's practically within the margin of error. We might just have a landslide yet. Rove's been promising a close election for a while now. Used to look like an attempt to lower expectations. Now it's starting to look like wishful thinking.

 

MacBeth:

Clinton was besieged by scandals going into the 92 general. I remember it well, since as a part of the Brown campaign we helped to push a lot of them. He was also hit hard on political expediency and, as with Kerry, it was a good charge. And Perot was a much bigger factor than Nader, one that ultimately hurt Clinton's total as much or more than Bush's, according to exit polls. Ultimately though, 92 was no exception to other incumbent races -- it was a referendum on Bush. I agree Kerry lacks Clinton's charisma like crazy, but he also lacks his baggage (affairs, financial scandals, draft dodging accusation). He's a tabula rasa. People liked Clinton's charisma, yeah, but mostly they just liked that he wasn't Bush. Mostly they just thought it was time for a change. The leading indicator of public opinion is the "is the country going in the right direction" question. The second indicator is the incumbent's approval rating. On both questions, Kerry's in a much better position than Clinton was at the same point in the 92 race.

 

Incumbents come in close to their approval rating. The Gallup number is the one everyone watches and it is at 44% (IIRC).

 

it's blackberry season...

 

Mine...

Solum potestis prohibere ignes silvarum.

 

OK, how about this...

Animadvertistine, ubicumque stes, fumum recta in faciem ferri?

 

Posting about politics on the internet: sort of geeky
Posting jokes in Latin about politics on the internet: extremely geeky
Actually understanding, laughing and responding in Latin: full-blown, all-out, nerd-o-rama

 

I could easily out geek them if anyone else would understand the acronym soup of computer jargon.

 

And the answer is what? Sit around a table holding hands? Didn't we already try that?

 

Obviously not enough.

 

I don't want anyone to get the wrong impression. I'm rooting for Kerry harder than anyone. I'm just pissed off that despite George W. Bush being one of the worst powerful leaders in the history of humanity, he is still leading Kerry. Guess that's what a lot of money will do for you.



Sh*t, this is too depressing. Is it 4:20 yet?

 

Wait until he pulls Osama out of his sleeve in October. You know they have him captured already and are just waiting for the right moment to "catch" him.

 

He isn't, ZRB. Read the articles some of us posted with the latest polls. Bush is in deep ****, and his people know it. He's now officially raised over $200,000,000 bucks... un****ing believable. He's going to need every penny of it. Don't get too bummed. Bush isn't going to get another term.

 

So does everybody here think that the war is going to be the deciding factor in this race?

The Gulf War 1 was a positive for Bush, but he lost because the economy was poor in the U.S.

The economy in the U.S. is actually showing a ramp up in earnings, job growth, lower unemployment and all that jazz leading into this election.

Is the stronger economy going into November going to wash the feelings on Iraq for a lot of people???