Magic # to 16

They'll have to find a coin that has 5 sides.

 

Seems about right to me. The #5 pick has about a 48% chance of coming up as the Rockets' pick if they have the worst record.

 

Wait, I did that wrong. It would be a 6 team tie, if DET beats Minny, and Minny beats ORL, with all teams losing out rest of the way.

 

LOL. The Rockets winning 5 in a row?

I honestly don't think the Rockets will have a 5 game win streak until 2023.

 

It's been rare for me to hit Rockets at #1 on that thing -- I've been seeing #18 way too often.

 

We clinched a bottom 3 record.

we can try to win now, and not risk it.

DD

 

[edit] ignore ... my math was wrong for explaining the odd nature of Rockets losing tankathon so much. See kingcheetahs quote of mine if you want to see my morning coffee math fart.

should just stick to writing the simulator per nba rules for a sanity check of tankathon’s code

 

That's good to read -- if we fall to 18 it will be a genuinely sad day.

Agree on the new thread btw [DIVOT]

 

Oops delete

 

I believe their calculations is correct. When calculating the odds for 2nd pick for example , don’t you have to factor in the Rockets not getting the first place which is 0.86 multiplied by 140 / (1000-100). That’s why getting second pick is slightly lower than first pick.

 

Yep. I’m wrong. I can’t add my probabilities for each drawing, the way I was doing it. More complex math to account for Rockets winning a drawing to get numbers into a summable form, than I could do while having coffee.

Writing the simulator code is easier ... was what I set out to do this morning, when I got sidetracked with incorrect probability math in my head.

sorry @KingCheetah ... but yeah, it is astonishing how much we lose more than 52%. To make up for it, now I really have to get my simulator up on the web, to allow users to input a number of runs for sanity check of the code.

Reports seem so far off, I think they have a bug ... but maybe we aren’t hearing enuf success stories.