Found a really nicely done website called: http://www.playoffstatus.com/ Does some nice calculations on chances a team will be at a particular seed: and even listing winning magic numbers, which is # games a team needs to win to clinch a particular seed. These are not as exact as a true magic number, but gives good guidelines. They also have calculated out what are the next most important games for the each each team, and how different results for each teams' next game will affect their chances at each seed and making the playoffs: Rockets Most Important Games Rockets What If? WC Strength of Schedules for rest of season
Based on http://www.playoffstatus.com The Rockets cut off is really 4 wins. If they get that, they should very likely make the playoffs.
Cool. You are going to get some different numbers from different simulations most likely due to the assumptions being used on a team's probability to win each particular game. One question I have about this is that they seem to list division winners as top 3 seed. This was the old rule, which was changed severa years ago. Now, division winner are only guaranteed one of the top 4 seeds.
They do talk about it with the disclaimer: It is actually an issue for the EC predictions since the Pacers have a better record than the Celtics. I am guessing that it was easier for them to run their statistics using this method. Makes it confusing on first glance, and not as helpful if your team is a No. 2 in a division but a Top 4 team.
this is GREAT!!!...thanks for the work you put into it..it is greatly appreciated!! I am hoping we can beat the Suns and get some of this pressure off....If we lose that game, the team will be really tight in their next few games....hopefully the loss to the Jazz woke this team up and they can take care of business against the suns....and minimum split with denver on sunday/monday.... I think NO definitely has a chance to upset Utah..Utah not a great team and NO upset Denver for us last week..lets hope they can do it again..only problem is that we play at NO next week too
Here are the Magic Numbers after all games played on April 12: Games H2H Div Con Over Hou Magic Opp Magic Team W/L H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TB Number Number 1 Thunder 42-16 2-2 None T N/A X 29-11 L No* ...Clinched 2 Spurs 41-16 2-2 None T 12-4 L 27-13 L No* ...Clinched 3 Lakers 37-22 2-1 None W N/A X 28-13 L Yes* 12 4 4 Clippers 36-23 0-3 None L N/A X 25-18 L No* 12 4(-1) 5 Grizzlies 34-24 2-2 None T 6-7 T 22-21 T *** 11(-1) 7 6 Mavericks 33-26 0-2 1A L 7-5 L 23-20 L No* 9 7(-1) 7 Rockets 32-26 5-6 21-20 8 Nuggets 32-26 1-1 1A,1H T N/A X 17-24 W Yes 9 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 Jazz 31-28 1-2 None L N/A X 21-21 W No* 7 9 10 Suns 30-28 2-1 1H W N/A X 20-20 W Yes 7 11 11 Blazers 28-31 3-0 None W N/A X 20-21 W Yes* 3 14 12 Wolves 25-35 1-3 None L N/A X 19-25 W No* Mounted... 13 Warriors 22-36 1-1 1H T N/A X 15-25 W Yes Scalped... 14 Kings 19-40 2-0 1H W N/A X 14-28 W Yes* Deposed... 15 Hornets 16-42 1-0 1A,1H W 1-9 W 10-31 W Yes Exterminated... * Indicates the Tie Break is final Hou Magic Number is Hou Wins + Opp Losses needed for Rockets to clinch record over that team. Opp Magic Number is Opp Wins + Hou Losses needed for respective opponent to clinch a better record than the Rockets. NBA Tie Break rules: (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division (2) Head-to-head W-L percentage (3) Division W-L percentage if all tied teams are in the same division (4) Conference W-L percentage (5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference (6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference (7) Net Points, all games Dallas win was expected honestly. Kidd is back, Golden State was on the second night of a back-to-back, and the Warriors are unofficially tanking. Portland tomorrow is a more likely upset, but not a sure thing. Spurs grinded out a tough game against Memphis, which is good sign after they lost to Jazz & Lakers. Rockets need them to round into form and knock off some other teams. Friday’s big games for playoffs: Phoenix @ Rockets 7:00 pm Jazz @ Hornets 7:00 pm Denver @ Lakers 10:30 pm Mavericks @ Trailblazers 10:30
I agree w/these and agree we have to win at least 4-5 of the remaining 8 and starts w/tonight. But I also agree that we're gonna botch one that we're supposed to win but I have a good feeling I'm telling everyone that we're gonna beat the Heat I think, and yes I know its in Miami but I think since its the 2nd to last game I believe they'll have the 2nd seed locked up so I think & hope they rest Lebron and Wade.
Just read this article on ESPN: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page...h-teams-make-western-conference-playoff-field "Will the Rockets make the playoffs? Varner: Fact, which is something of a drag for fans everywhere. It's a drag for non-Rockets fans because Houston provides very little entertainment as a first-round out; it's a drag for Houston fans because their team would be much better served by finding a home in the draft lottery" Lol, haters gonna hate.
Here are the Magic Numbers after all games played on April 13: Games H2H Div Con Over Hou Magic Opp Magic Team W/L H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TB Number Number 1 Thunder 43-16 2-2 None T N/A X 30-11 L No* ...Clinched 2 Spurs 41-16 2-2 None T 12-4 L 27-13 L No* ...Clinched 3 Lakers 38-22 2-1 None W N/A X 29-13 L Yes* 12 2(-2) 4 Clippers 36-23 0-3 None L N/A X 25-18 L No* 12 3(-1) 5 Grizzlies 34-24 2-2 None T 6-7 T 22-21 L No 11 6(-1) 6 Mavericks 34-26 0-2 1A L 7-5 L 24-20 L No* 9 5(-2) 7 Rockets 32-27 5-6 21-21 8 Nuggets 32-27 1-1 1A,1H T N/A X 17-25 W Yes 8(-1) 8(-1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 Suns 31-28 2-2 None Y N/A X 21-20 L No 7 9(-2) 10 Jazz 31-29 1-2 None L N/A X 21-22 W No* 6(-1) 8(-1) 11 Blazers 28-32 3-0 None W N/A X 20-22 W Yes* 2(-1) 12 Wolves 25-35 1-3 None L N/A X 19-25 W No* Mounted... 13 Warriors 22-36 1-1 1H T N/A X 15-25 W Yes Scalped... 14 Kings 19-41 2-0 1H W N/A X 14-29 W Yes* Deposed... 15 Hornets 17-42 1-0 1A,1H W 1-9 W 11-31 W Yes Exterminated... * Indicates the Tie Break is final Hou Magic Number is Hou Wins + Opp Losses needed for Rockets to clinch record over that team. Opp Magic Number is Opp Wins + Hou Losses needed for respective opponent to clinch a better record than the Rockets. NBA Tie Break rules: (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division (2) Head-to-head W-L percentage (3) Division W-L percentage if all tied teams are in the same division (4) Conference W-L percentage (5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference (6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference (7) Net Points, all games Mavericks win again, even while resting Kidd. Means they Rockets will be hard pressed to catch them. Rockets lost out on chance to outright clinch another tiebreaker. Now this is not as big as Utah, because it now reverts to conference record. The Suns have 7 more WC games, and the Rockets have 6 WR left. You could argue that the Suns have more difficult competition, but most of their games are at home where they have beaten some good teams the past 2 months. Also, I would almost guarantee the Spurs rest their starters in that last game. Utah’s loss really hurts them because that was the worst team they had left to play, and now they have to go to Memphis tomorrow. If Orlando continues to fall apart and Portland decides to totally tank, they may have 3 should wins left, but it won’t be easy for them. Tomorrow will be big for both the Suns & Jazz. Both are underdogs on the road, on the second night of a back to back against rested teams (Spurs & Grizzlies). If either team pulls out a win, they will likely be tied for the #8 spot after the Denver-Houston H&H. The Nuggets fought back against a Lakers team that is out to prove they are not just Kobe but still lost. Not much happens for their magic numbers, but their overall playoff odds went down some. Won’t know how much until tomorrow though. Both Nuggets and Rockets get to rest up for a day before the Home-and-Home. These two games will be huge for both teams. Both teams needed 8 wins before Friday's losses to essentially guarantee a playoff spot. If either team is swept, they would need to win 4 of 5 games to have a good chance or 3 of 5 games to have about a 50/50 shot of sneaking into the playoffs. Given both of their schedules afterwards, that is a tall order especially with the Hornets suddenly looking like a real NBA team. Because of that the first game has even bigger importance, because the loser has to win the second game to have any real shot of the playoffs. In regards to a two-team tiebreaker, the Rockets only need to split with the Nuggets because they will almost certainly win in conference record. Though, there is still a good possibility of a three-team tie, and the Rockets could really use a sweep to help themselves out given their other H2H records. Saturday’s big games for playoffs: Jazz @ Memphis 7:00 pm Phoenix @ San Antonio 8:00 pm <B>Remaining Schedule: Memphis Houston Dallas Denver Phoenix Utah</B> 4.09 LAC W 4.09 @ POR W 4.10 SAC W 4.09 GSW W 4.09 @ MIN W 4.09 SAS W 4.11 PHO W 4.11 UTA L 4.12 @ GSW W 4.11 MIN W 4.11 @ MEM L 4.11 @ HOU W 4.12 @ SAS L 4.13 PHO L 4.13 @ POR W 4.13 @ LAL L 4.13 @ HOU W 4.13 @ NOH L 4.14 UTA 4.14 @ SAS 4.14 @ MEM 4.15 @ NOH 4.15 @ DEN 4.15 @ LAL 4.15 HOU 4.17 @ MIN 4.16 DEN 4.16 @ UTA 4.16 @ HOU 4.16 POR 4.16 DAL 4.18 NOH 4.18 @ DAL 4.18 HOU 4.18 LAC 4.18 OKC 4.18 @ POR 4.20 @ CHA 4.19 @ NOH 4.20 GSW 4.21 @ PHO 4.19 LAC 4.21 ORL 4.21 POR 4.21 GSW 4.21 @ CHI 4.21 DEN 4.23 CLE 4.22 @ MIA 4.26 @ ATL 4.22 ORL 4.24 @ UTA 4.24 PHO 4.26 ORL 4.26 NOH 4.25 @ OKC 4.25 SAS 4.26 POR 4.26 @ MIN
Today was hard to stomach...camby looked tired in the second half...wish mchale would have used dalembert more in first half to keep camby fresh...Patterson was killing us...if we can win in.Denver Sunday it would put lots of pressure on den Monday night but Denver got gallinari back so might be tough...I'm still hoping we sneak in somehow...hopefully Miami will be resting players in our game...I think we will get in...at pinpoint I don't care if we back in or not..I just want playoff basketball
The playoff percentage updates do not typically update until the next morning when all the standings are updated. To underscore the importance of these weekend games for the Rockets: Now these are all taken in isolation to one another. Obviously, the 1st Nuggets game is huge. Then for the Rockets perspective, the Suns & Jazz games only matter if they pull off an upset. Though when taken together... Best case vs Worse Case scenario have a huge swing. If the Jazz & Suns lose tonight and the Rockets win tomorrow, Houston should be a playoff team. If the opposite occurs though, then the Rockets playoff hopes will be decided by the Nuggets game at home and @ Dallas.
