It's encouraging that we're 6-5 against the top three seeds in the west, because that's who we'll play. I still want the Spurs, we could have should have been 4-0 against them. The Clippers are the only ones I don't want to face, not just because of our head to head record vs them, but because I already hate Chris Paul's BS antics on the court. Seeing him in a 7-game series continually fall over, pout, and cheapshot people is gonna push me to the brink of buying a plane ticket to LA to administer bodily harm to the guy. Obviously because of their depth and Blake's regression to a fetus-like state of maturity, they're no threat to go far in the playoffs. I just don't want to have to be the team that puts up with Chris Paul's "I'M A SUPERSTAR. ALL YOUR FOUL CALLS ARE BELONG TO US." shtick and puts him down like the German guy with the knife in Saving Private Ryan.
The Spurs have been 9-0 with Diaw. Mills has in the past played well against the Rockets. Earlier this season the Dunleavy-SJax wing pairing killed CLee and Parsons. CLee has struggled against bigger players and has looked smaller than other players who are listed as 6-5. The Spurs have options no shorter than 6-6 at his position. I don't like the match up.
I think with General Lowry back on the bench, the team has a renewed sense of maturity and chemistry to lean on. We are starting to hit our stride at the right time in the season.
I think it might be time to start considering the Lakers as a team that could fall in the standings. It was just announced that Kobe will be out again tonight in New Orleans. Right now, they are 3.5 games ahead of us. That's a lot of ground to cover with only 10 games left in the season, but we do hold the tiebreaker against them. Also, look at their remaining schedule: @ New Orleans @ San Antonio vs Denver vs Dallas vs San Antonio @ Golden State @ San Antonio vs Oklahoma City @ Sacramento Ho-lee-shizz. If Kobe is out for an extended period of time, i can see them losing a majority of these games. Even if he plays, most of these teams are fighting for playoff positioning and wont be easy. The only "gimmes" are all on the road and Kobe for sure isn't playing in one of them (tonight against the Hornets) Maybe it's the inner Laker hater in me talking, but I can definitely see them falling and we have a chance to surpass them in the standings now that we have the tiebreaker
Senter, It is possible, but highly unlikely. Remember the Rockets would need 13 Rockets wins or Lakers losses to pass them. The best I could hope from the Rockets would be 7 wins, meaning stilling needing 6 Lakers losses. Even without Kobe for stretches, it would tough to see the Lakers go 3-6 to finish out the year. It could happen, but still a longshot right now.
Yea, I know, it is kind of a long shot. But I'm ready to chalk up their 3 games against the spurs and one game against the thunder as a loss for them. That's 4 losses already. I think its conceivable that they lose 2 more out of the rest of the games. And us going 7-3 is somewhat realistic! Getting Lowry back is huge. All of those drops in production when Dragic rested shouldn't happen anymore with 1 of 2 starting caliber point guards in to run the show at all times. A man can hope, right?
Here are the Magic Numbers after all games played on April 9: Games H2H Div Con Over Hou Magic Opp Magic Team W/L H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TB Number Number 1 Thunder 42-15 2-2 None T N/A X 29-10 L No* ...Clinched 2 Spurs 40-15 2-2 None T 11-4 L 26-12 L No* 1 3 Lakers 36-22 2-1 None W N/A X 27-13 L Yes* 12(-1) 6(-1) 4 Clippers 34-23 0-3 None L N/A X 23-18 L No* 12(-2) 7 5 Grizzlies 33-23 2-2 None T 6-6 L 21-20 W No 12(-1) 9(-1) 6 Rockets 32-25 5-6 21-19 7 Mavericks 31-26 0-2 1A L 7-5 L 21-20 W No* 9(-1) 10 8 Nuggets 31-26 1-1 1A,1H T N/A X 16-24 W Yes 9(-1) 11(-1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 Suns 30-27 2-1 1H W N/A X 20-19 W Yes 8(-1) 12(-1) 10 Jazz 30-28 1-1 1H T N/A X 20-21 W Yes 7(-1) 12(-1) 11 Blazers 27-31 3-0 None W N/A X 19-21 W Yes* 3(-2) 15 12 Wolves 25-33 1-3 None L N/A X 19-23 W No* 2(-2) 13 Warriors 22-34 1-1 1H T N/A X 15-23 W Yes 1(-2) 14 Kings 19-38 2-0 1H W N/A X 14-26 W Yes* Deposed... 15 Hornets 15-42 1-0 1A,1H W 1-9 W 9-31 W Yes Exterminated... * Indicates the Tie Break is final Hou Magic Number is Hou Wins + Opp Losses needed for Rockets to clinch record over that team. Opp Magic Number is Opp Wins + Hou Losses needed for respective opponent to clinch a better record than the Rockets. NBA Tie Break rules: (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division (2) Head-to-head W-L percentage (3) Division W-L percentage if all tied teams are in the same division (4) Conference W-L percentage (5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference (6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference (7) Net Points, all games Basically all the teams fighting for positioning got wins they had to have, even the Jazz over the Spurs. Grizzlies beat Clippers like I suspected and the Lakers managed to win without Kobe. As a result, not much changed today. Mavs play tomorrow, but things will be quiet until Wednesday, which will be a big day for all the teams Monday’s big games for playoffs: Monday’s big games for picks: Kings @ Mavericks 76ers(Tied with New York) @ Nets Knicks @ Bulls
Here are the Magic Numbers after all games played on April 10: Games H2H Div Con Over Hou Magic Opp Magic Team W/L H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TB Number Number 1 Thunder 42-15 2-2 None T N/A X 29-10 L No* ...Clinched 2 Spurs 40-15 2-2 None T 11-4 L 26-12 L No* 1 3 Lakers 36-22 2-1 None W N/A X 27-13 L Yes* 12 6 4 Clippers 34-23 0-3 None L N/A X 23-18 L No* 12 7 5 Grizzlies 33-23 2-2 None T 6-6 L 21-20 W No 12 9 6 Rockets 32-25 5-6 21-19 7 Mavericks 32-26 0-2 1A L 7-5 L 22-20 T No* 9 9(-1) 8 Nuggets 31-26 1-1 1A,1H T N/A X 16-24 W Yes 9 11 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 Suns 30-27 2-1 1H W N/A X 20-19 W Yes 8 12 10 Jazz 30-28 1-1 1H T N/A X 20-21 W Yes 7 12 11 Blazers 27-31 3-0 None W N/A X 19-21 W Yes* 3 15 12 Wolves 25-33 1-3 None L N/A X 19-23 W No* 2 13 Warriors 22-34 1-1 1H T N/A X 15-23 W Yes 1 14 Kings 19-39 2-0 1H W N/A X 14-27 W Yes* Deposed... 15 Hornets 15-42 1-0 1A,1H W 1-9 W 9-31 W Yes Exterminated... * Indicates the Tie Break is final Hou Magic Number is Hou Wins + Opp Losses needed for Rockets to clinch record over that team. Opp Magic Number is Opp Wins + Hou Losses needed for respective opponent to clinch a better record than the Rockets. NBA Tie Break rules: (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division (2) Head-to-head W-L percentage (3) Division W-L percentage if all tied teams are in the same division (4) Conference W-L percentage (5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference (6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference (7) Net Points, all games Dallas won like they were supposed to to help stem their bleeding. Kidd did return, but they limited his minutes. Nothing else tonight. Tomorrow things get interesting. Monday’s big games for playoffs: Monday’s big games for picks: Jazz @ Rockets Knicks @ Bucks Suns @ Grizzlies Timberwolves @ Nuggets Clippers @ Thunder Lakers @ Spurs
I also like these computer simulation generated playoff odds: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2206
tonight was devastating, Jazz, Clippers, Grizzlies, Mavs, Lakers, Nuggets all won, not to mention the Knicks
Its not the end of the world...we are still in the drivers seat...huge game vs suns Fri...gotta won that....den home and home will be tough...
My lord, that Blazers-Warriors game just would not end. And it was just atrocious watching it while just waiting for one team to finally play worse defense and let the game end. Here are the Magic Numbers after all games played on April 11: Games H2H Div Con Over Hou Magic Opp Magic Team W/L H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TB Number Number 1 Thunder 42-16 2-2 None T N/A X 29-11 L No* ...Clinched 2 Spurs 40-16 2-2 None T 11-4 L 26-13 L No* ...Clinched 3 Lakers 37-22 2-1 None W N/A X 28-13 L Yes* 12 4(-2) 4 Clippers 35-23 0-3 None L N/A X 24-18 L No* 12 5(-2) 5 Grizzlies 34-23 2-2 None T 6-6 L 22-20 L No 12 7(-2) 6 Mavericks 32-26 0-2 1A L 7-5 L 22-20 L No* 9 8(-1) 7 Rockets 32-26 5-6 21-20 8 Nuggets 32-26 1-1 1A,1H T N/A X 17-24 W Yes 9 9(-1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 Jazz 31-28 1-2 None L N/A X 21-21 W No* 7 9(-3) 10 Suns 30-28 2-1 1H W N/A X 20-20 W Yes 7(-1) 11(-1) 11 Blazers 28-31 3-0 None W N/A X 20-21 W Yes* 3 14(-1) 12 Wolves 25-34 1-3 None L N/A X 19-24 W No* 1(-1) 13 Warriors 22-35 1-1 1H T N/A X 15-24 W Yes Scalped... 14 Kings 19-40 2-0 1H W N/A X 14-28 W Yes* Deposed... 15 Hornets 16-42 1-0 1A,1H W 1-9 W 10-31 W Yes Exterminated... * Indicates the Tie Break is final Hou Magic Number is Hou Wins + Opp Losses needed for Rockets to clinch record over that team. Opp Magic Number is Opp Wins + Hou Losses needed for respective opponent to clinch a better record than the Rockets. NBA Tie Break rules: (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division (2) Head-to-head W-L percentage (3) Division W-L percentage if all tied teams are in the same division (4) Conference W-L percentage (5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference (6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference (7) Net Points, all games Loss to the Jazz hurts a great deal. They do have minimally easier schedule due more the fewer B2B’s, road games and games in general than Houston. It will come down to the wire with these two. No teams did the Rockets any real favors today. The Suns losing to the Grizzlies helps minimally, but that game in 2 days will go much more towards deciding the fate of Houston and Phoenix. Rockets are back into a tie with the Mavs & Nuggets. There is really no reason for Dallas to lose to the Warriors and Trailblazers in their next two games with Kidd back though. However, they have lost to both teams in the past month or so, so just will see how it plays out. Nuggets go play at the Lakers before their H&H with Houston. Never know what Nuggets team will show up, but the Lakers seem to be rounding into form. Would be a nice gift for them to lose that game before that huge B2B. About those Lakers. They scored an impressive win over the Spurs, with the Big 3 playing and Kobe out. Would not read that much into the Spurs performance because they have all but locked up the 2nd seed and probably did not have the emotion or mentality needed against a Lakers unit who felt like they had something to prove without Kobe. If Bynum can bottle up and use his rage like he did tonight, the Lakers will be contenders. No team outside Memphis really has anyone that can match his size, skill, & physicality when he plays like that. No promises on that happening. Both Clippers and Grizzlies won, which adds zero clarity to #3, #4 and #5 seeds. Just will have to see how things play out, (I keep saying that, don’t I.), and we will know if it will actually affect the Houston’s first round opponent after these next 4 Rockets games. Thursday’s big games for playoffs: Mavericks @ Warriors Grizzlies @ Spurs Clippers @ Minnesota <B>Remaining Schedule: Memphis Houston Dallas Denver Phoenix Utah</B> 4.09 LAC W 4.09 @ POR W 4.10 SAC W 4.09 GSW W 4.09 @ MIN W 4.09 SAS W 4.11 PHO W 4.11 UTA L 4.12 @ GSW 4.11 MIN W 4.11 @ MEM L 4.11 @ HOU W 4.12 @ SAS 4.13 PHO 4.13 @ POR 4.13 @ LAL 4.13 @ HOU 4.13 @ NOH 4.14 UTA 4.14 @ SAS 4.14 @ MEM 4.15 @ NOH 4.15 @ DEN 4.15 @ LAL 4.15 HOU 4.17 @ MIN 4.16 DEN 4.16 @ UTA 4.16 @ HOU 4.16 POR 4.16 DAL 4.18 NOH 4.18 @ DAL 4.18 HOU 4.18 LAC 4.18 OKC 4.18 @ POR 4.20 @ CHA 4.19 @ NOH 4.20 GSW 4.21 @ PHO 4.19 LAC 4.21 ORL 4.21 POR 4.21 GSW 4.21 @ CHI 4.21 DEN 4.23 CLE 4.22 @ MIA 4.26 @ ATL 4.22 ORL 4.24 @ UTA 4.24 PHO 4.26 ORL 4.26 NOH 4.25 @ OKC 4.25 SAS 4.26 POR 4.26 @ MIN
Unless I am reading incorrectly, did we drop our chances of making the playoffs from 92 to 88% only? Really, the probabilities do not matter now. We have to entertain each game as a must win from now on.
No, the 88% was before tonight. It differs slightly fom the 92 you read due to different simulation methods. I anticipate the odds will drop to roughly 75% after tonight. This is why Morey said tonight was big. More for the downside than the upside.
Ok. Thanks. Dang, we go from possibly attaining a higher seed to fighting for our playoff lives in just one game. That's what happens when a bunch of teams are separated by a just few games. I am still confident. A couple of wins and I bet those odds will dramatically increase again, due to so few games left. Still, any of those teams (including us) going on a losing streak can kiss goodbye irt to the playoffs.
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds Here we go, Hollinger's simulations now have Rockets down to a 79.3% chance of making the playoffs-- about the same as the 75% I predicted. Funny enough Denver, Houston and Dallas have the same record but Houston has the highest chance with Dallas a bit behind and Denver at only 63%-- probably a function of strength of schedule and tiebreakers. Of course, there are a number of assumptions made here and significant events like injury or Popovic sitting everyone out can change things. Morey said earlier that 36 wins will give the Rockets a comfortable chance of making the playoffs while 35 wins mean it can go either way. So, a rough guess is that the Rockets will have to at least break even in the final 8 games of the season. Hopefully they don't have bad shooting nights like they did against Utah too many times. My guess is that, according to Vegas oddsmakers, they are probably 1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1 favorites or thereabouts in their home games vs. PHX and Denver, 3-1 favorite in their 2 home games vs. GSW and NOR. Winning is by no means a certainty (they were favored vs. Utah), but they should have a good chance of taking care of business in these four games. They should also be favored in their away game vs. New Orleans. As for the other 3 road games: Miami is a big question mark, depending on whether Miami will be resting guys. Dallas and Denver will be challenges, but by no means insurmountable.
Good breakdown Carl. If the Rockets win 2 out of the next 3, it will open up things dramatically down the stretch. They have 8 games left, and they really need to go 5 -3 if possible. If they win any less than that, its a crap shoot and your banking on Utah, Phoenix, Dallas, & Denver loosing games. We all know you cant do that. They must go 5 -3 if they seriously want to be in the playoffs. Fri 13 vs Phoenix (W) Sun 15 @ Denver (L) Mon 16 vs Denver (W) Wed 18 @ Dallas (L) Thu 19 @ New Orleans (W) Sat 21 vs Golden State (W) Sun 22 @ Miami (L) Thu 26 vs New Orleans (W) *More than likely the Rockets are going to botch 1 or 2 games they are "supposed to" win, so that means they are going to need to steal one they arent "supposed to" win at some point. Morey actually said 39 wins is what they were thinking would get the Rockets comfortably in the playoffs.
