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Magic Numbers against the Western Conference

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by ScriboErgoSum, Feb 20, 2009.

  1. droxford

    droxford Member

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    Unless I'm mistaken, you are incorrect on the last scenario. It should be..

    Utah beats Lakers, Dallas beats Houston, San Antonio beats New Orleans, Portland beats Denver

    1. LA Lakers
    2. Denver
    3. Portland
    4. San Antonio
    5. Houston
    6. Dallas
    7. Utah
    8. New Orleans
     
     
  2. D-Lite

    D-Lite Contributing Member

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    no he's right,

    San Antonio would win the division and the tiebreak over portland
     
  3. Cannonball

    Cannonball Contributing Member

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    No, San Antonio wins the tiebreak because they're a division winner and Portland isn't.
     
  4. droxford

    droxford Member

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    ok. my bad.
     
     
  5. rage

    rage Member

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    Code:
    Utah	W7	[b]W6[/b]	W8	[b]W7[/b]	L8	W6	W7	W8	L8	L8	L8	W7	L8	L8	L8	L8
    LA	L1	L1	L1	L1	W1	L1	L1	L1	W1	W1	W1	L1	W1	W1	W1	W1
    Hou	W3	W3	L3	W2	W3	W2	L4	L4	W3	W2	L3	L5	W2	L4	L3	L5
    Dal	L8	L8	W7	L8	L7	L8	W6	W7	L7	[b]L7[/b]	W7	W6	[b]L7[/b]	W6	W7	W6
    Den	W2	W2	W2	L3	W2	L3	W2	L2	W2	L3	W2	L2	L3	W2	L2	L2
    Port	L4	L5	L4	W4	L4	W4	[b]L5[/b]	W3	L5	W4	L4	[b]W4[/b]	W4	[b]L5[/b]	W4	[b]W4[/b]
    NO	[b]W6[/b]	L7	[b]W6[/b]	W6	[b]W6[/b]	[b]L7[/b]	L8	W6	[b]L6[/b]	W6	[b]W6[/b]	L8	L6	L7	[b]W6[/b]	L7
    SA	L5	W4	L5	L5	L5	W5	W3	[b]L5[/b]	W4	L5	L5	W3	W5	W3	L5	W3
    
    I believe this table with outcomes of each team's last games is correct. We still have a lot of posibilities left.
     
  6. D-Lite

    D-Lite Contributing Member

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    what does that even mean???
     
  7. Mailman

    Mailman Member

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    It's a listing of the sixteen possible outcomes that remain with one game left.

    The W-L represents that teams result in the last game, and the number that follows is that team's playoff seeding.
     
  8. redao

    redao Member

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    it means if we lose the last game, we will not play against Utah.
     
  9. Cannonball

    Cannonball Contributing Member

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    For each column, the letters tell you the outcome of the games and the numbers tell you the seeds based on those outcomes.

    For example, the first column says if UTA beats LA, HOU beats DAL, DEN beats POR, and NO beats SA, then the seeds will be:

    LA
    DEN
    HOU
    POR
    SA
    NO
    UTA
    DAL

    It's hard to read though.
     
  10. rage

    rage Member

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    Sorry for the readability. I had to list them in the order of the games played.
    If you all would just read one column at a time, each is an outcome.
     
  11. desertfire

    desertfire Member

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    Actually the Lakers aren't quivering in their boots about a potential matchup with a beat up and poor playing Jazz team, unlike many Rockets fans on this board. They may actually want to play the Jazz, as the Mavs seem more dangerous right now. I am not sure I wouldn't want to play the Jazz over the Mavs. No one other than the Spurs is limping into the post season more than the Jazz (okay, maybe the Hornets). It is irrational to fear them to the point that you actually think they will keep us out of the second round. They are horrible on the road and we've beat them twice this year. We are not the same team we were either of the last two years we faced them. I am telling you we would beat them in five.

    Here's what amazes me. You actually fear the Jazz more than the Lakers. I would much rather play the Jazz in the first round and miss the Lakers in the second than avoid the Jazz in the first round (whom we would beat anyway) and draw the Lakers in the second. When you talk about dropping games to avoid the Jazz and even forfeit HCA that is myopic vision at its worst.
     
  12. rage

    rage Member

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    That is correct and we won't play Dallas either, whom I believe is our next worse nemesis.

    ....

    I still say win it and beat them all. :)
     
  13. desertfire

    desertfire Member

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    And for all those worrying about the Lakers tanking tonight to avoid Utah, here's the proof that they don't have such a loser's mentality. This is from the preview of the game on Yahoo!

    'While Tuesday’s game has no meaning for the Lakers in the standings, they’d like to earn a mental edge in the potential playoff series after losing 113-109 in Salt Lake City on Feb. 11 despite 37 points from Kobe Bryant.

    “We’re going into (Tuesday’s game) trying to send them a message,” Lakers center Andrew Bynum said.''
     
  14. ccada

    ccada Contributing Member

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    IMO, LA is not going to lay down for this one. Even if their starters get extended rest, please remember that LA is a deep team, and Utah absolutely blows on the road. In the last two weeks they've lost to Portland, Denver, New Orleans, Dallas, and San Antonio on the road by an average of 16 points.
     
  15. Cannonball

    Cannonball Contributing Member

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    I hope LA beats Utah tonight if only so that people will stop saying we should tank vs Dallas.
     
  16. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Contributing Member

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    Please let it happen. I would love to have the Jazz at #8, but not as much as I'd like to have an end to all of this tanking talk. People have lost their freaking minds...
     
    #1256 ScriboErgoSum, Apr 14, 2009
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2009
  17. agentkirb87

    agentkirb87 Member

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    I hope it happens too. And that also means that perhaps the Mavs aren't as desperate for a win now that they are only fighting for the 6th seed. The 6th v 7th seed doesn't really mean much. They have the same odds to play just about everyone in front of them.

    On the other hand, 2nd vs 3rd-4th-5th seed is a HUGE difference. 1st division title for sure and home court until the WCF. Plus its the difference between playing the Mavs or playing against Portland/San Antonio. Not to mention avoiding the Lakers in the 2nd round.
     
  18. Jimes

    Jimes Member

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    Agree with this. Utah still presents a matchup problem with Yao but we have a really good shot at taking them down regardless the way both teams are playing.
     
  19. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    The only team I don't want to play against is the Lakers. So it is extremely important that we stay in the other bracket (#2 or #3). I don't want to face the Jazz either. But they are not unbeatable by us. So tanking makes no sense at this point.

    I think some of you guys set your goal too low. I don't want to just get out of the first round. I want to get to the WCF. That's what I think this team deserves.
     
  20. desertfire

    desertfire Member

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    Thanks. Let's say a reasonable goal for the Rockets is to get to the WCF. Anything beyond that requires some pretty unlikely circumstances and/or surprises. I am not saying we just lay down and usher the Lakers into the finals if we get there, but let's just say considering all of the circumstances, we would be thrilled to go the WCF this year.

    In order to get there we obviously have to go through two rounds. I would put our chances of beating Utah in the 1st round at about 65%. Our chances of beating other first round opponents I would estimate something like this: Spurs: 70%, Hornets 80%, Mavericks 70%, Trailblazers 65%. So, even if I concede that the Jazz are a more dangerous threat to us than most matchups--which I did for the sake of argument--our chances are great to advance against any first round opponent, though the above assumes HCA, and if we lose that then numbers against the Spurs and Trailblazers drop to 50%.

    In the second round our likely opponents would be either the Lakers or Nuggets. Against the Nuggets I would give us a 50% shot of advancing without HCA and a 65% shot with it. Against the Lakers...no better than 15% shot. So, if you want to make the WCF, what logical person wants to avoid the Jazz and draw the Lakers in the second round? The answer is no logical person wants this. Fear does great damage to logic, however, and that is what we are seeing.
     

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