My crystal ball is working overtime. This post will make your head hurt. Mine just exploded. 1. Utah is a near lock for the 6 seed. - After today's action, Utah and Dallas are both 47-31, while NO is 48-30. - NO has a brutal finish. Dallas twice, then at SA and at Houston. NO would be fortunate to split these last 4 games. Even assuming they do, they wind up at 50-32. They coud drop 3 of 4, to finish at 49-33. - Utah will go 2-2 at worst, witih losses at SA and Lakers. SA is hobbled though and the Lakers may rest their players in the finale. Utah finishes with 49 or 50 wins. Utah holds the tiebreak over NO. - Dallas is looking at a 2 games against NO, then home against Minn and Hou. I see a 2-2 finish, maybe 3-1 at best. So we're talking about 49 or 50 wins. If tied with Dallas, Utah will have tiebreak. - If all three teams tie at 49 or 50 wins, utah still gets tiebreak. The key is whether NO can take both games against Dallas. - To me, it's very likely that Utah lands the 3 seed. 2. I'm just tired of seeing us vs. Utah in the playoffs. I just want to see something else. We either go for the 2nd seed, or drop to the 4th seed if needed. i don't really care which 3. The key games on thurs and Friday. - Denver at LA tomorrow night: A denver loss sets up a possibility that we get the 2 seed by winning out. Denver has the NW division locked up (b/c of tiebreakers), even if it loses the finale at Portland. However, a loss in the finale, coupled by us winning out, gets us the 2 seed. - LA at Portland on Friday. This is key b/c if Portland loses, it opens up the possibility that we could drop our season finale at Dallas deliberately to drop to the 4 seed, without risking a drop to the 5th seed and loss of HCA. - Utah at SA on Friday is also huge. if Utah manages to win, then they're a virtual lock for the 6 seed, and puts us on a collision course with them as a 3 seed. - Dallas v. NO - Go New Orleans. hang on to that 6 seed. 4. Key Games at end of regular season - Utah at lakers on april 14: lakers could be resting its regulars, but maybe not. Cleveland finshes at home with Philly on the 15th. Lakers may need to win out to give themselves a small chance of getting HCA over CLE. - Houston at Dallas on April 15. If Utah is sitting at the 6th seed, we probably have a decision to make. Winning out would get us the 3 seed and division title, with the possibility of reaching the 2nd seed if Portland beats Denver later that night. However, depending on the standings, we might chose to tank the game, which could drop us to the 4 or 5 seed, as follows. If SA and Portland haven't lost, then tanking cedes the SW division to SA, and exposes us to the risk of dropping to the 5 seed if Portland beats Denver later that night. If SA has lost a game, we likely cede the division to them by tanking b/c we would have a worse division record. If Portland has lost a game, then we're guaranteed the 4 seed, even if we drop this game. Has your head exploded. - Denver at Portland. Important for obvious reasons. Denver may have nothing to play for if it has won its previous 2. It would have the 2 seed locked up. 5. So, what am I rooting for? - Hornets to win both games vs. Dallas. - If Hornets win and look strong to hold the 6th seed, then I want Utah to beat SA.
Thanks again, Scribo. Very fun night. Let's nail down the #3 seed and then kick everybody's rear-end.
I think the opposite. NO's closing 4 games are 2 against dallas (home and home series), then at Hou and at SA. Utah is at SA, 2 cream puff games, and a finale at LA that may feature LA's scrubs. Utah holds the tiebreak over New orleans.
My head has not exploded but yours has if you think tanking is an option. I want us to win it all but I want us to beat the Jazz in the process... If we can't beat utah then we don't deserve to advance. We will beat the Jazz make no mistake about it. We were missing Yao last year. So you cannot compare this team with last year, youcannot compare with even this year, and don't go buy the last game. We had just played 7 out of ten games it was last game of the toughest stretch of the season and Landry got shot! Make no mistake about it we will kick the Jazz's but! And we will do it at least once in Utah! Bring on the Jazz and we will destroy them. TANKING IS NOT AN OPTION!
if it's the last game of the season, and we have a choice to tank the game to not play the jazz, i'm ALL FOR IT.
for the first time i'm gonna have to agree with old man rock here. i think there's some kind of bad karma if you tank to avoid a playoff matchup. champions don't do that. i think utah is our toughest matchup outside of the lakers but they are far from unbeatable. i mostly have no interest in playing them, because it's getting freaking boring. can you imagine another series in that ****-hole? ugh. perhaps tanking to avoid monotony is acceptable? i just want to see another team, heck i'd take the freaking lakers.
I don't want anything to do with the Lakers unless we need to. I would never ask to face Kobe in a playoff series. I don't want to see Utah either, but I agree with Old Man Rock, if we can't beat them, then I don't see how we can win a championship. As much as I would love to get out of the first round, it would be rather sweet to take down Utah in the process. That would be a huge boost in confidence, for at least the fans IMO
Tanking is just not an option. I mean, what kind of single does that send to the rest of the league (and especially the Jazz) if we were to tank the last game of the season to avoid them. So what, the Jazz are a matchup nightmare for the Rockets, but getting to the WCF was never going to be easy. Just think how well we'd all feel if we did knock out the Jazz (hopefully on their pitiful excuse for an arena) to advance to the second round. I'm sure the pundits would pick us to lose that series, but so what. I love being the underdog.
i think the jazz-hornets-mavs will all be tied at 49W. what would the order for those 3 be if this is the case? also, i don't think the #2 seed is out of the question just yet. it will be a crap shoot between the nugs, rox, spurs, and blazers.
Problem is, we haven't destroyed them, they've destroyed us... There's no reason to believe that we can win in a 7 game series against the Jazz, even with HCA. I say we do anything to avoid them. With Ginobili's injury and Duncan at half strength, we can beat any team in the west except the Jazz and the Lakers. Why be so hard on ourselves? The goal is not the championship this year. It is to get out of the first round and get the monkey off our backs.
We are 2-2 against the Jazz this year, and they can't win on the road, I like our chances against the Jazz or any team not named.....Lakers in the playoffs, this year. DD
why take the chance to play the jazz? sure they're awful on the road, but we have lost to them at home in previous seasons. and even this year, we beat them barely in a 2OT game at home in 1 of our 2 home wins. in that game, the jazz didn't even have their full team.. people say they shouldn't be avoiding anyone, especially the jazz, if we're going to win a championship. but there's nothing wrong with trying to position ourselves with a more favorable match-up. nuggets took out the sonics in 94. we played really bad against seattle in previous games. our chip doesn't look any worse than it does had we beat seattle. i want the rox to have as much success as they can in the playoffs, and if that means tanking a game at the end to ADVANCE to the second round a bit more easily, then by all means i am all for it. it's all about advancing. let's just get to the next round as easily as possible and see what happens from there. it's ludicrous to say "bring on the jazz, lakers, cavs, etc, because we have to beat them anyways to win the title." why not play the blazers or hornets, advance further, and hope for the best? not saying that mavs will beat the lakers, but at least we get more playoff experience and a step closer to where we want to go. taking an easier step forward is better than taking a harder step forward. sure we can beat the jazz, but i don't care who we beat to get to where we want to go.
That's what I've been saying all along my friend. Bring them all on. I think we are definitely the second best team in the West.
I want a Southwest Division Title and to be on the other side of the bracket from the Lakers. That means the 2 or the 3 seed. The Rockets will beat the Jazz in the playoffs this year.
I am not someone who is in favor of tanking games; however, I do feel that the playoffs are all about the matchups. Back in the mid '90s when we won our 2 championships, everybody knew that the Sonics were the worst matchup for us. The Jazz have replaced the Sonics as the team that we matchup the worst against (I know we lost all 4 times to the Lakers but we normally give the Lakers more trouble than what we have done this season). I too am tired of seeing us play the Jazz in the first round - I mean I am not going to be that excited at seeing us play that team for a 3rd straight year in the 1st round. Remember - if the Nuggets hadn't taken out the Sonics in '94, can we really say that the Rockets would have a championship from that season? And the fact that we won it gave us the confidence to overcome the incredible odds (having to play every playoff series without HCA) that faced us the next season. It is a very interesting dilemma to be in - do we play the string out and try to win every game or do we "rest" *wink wink* some of our key players which could cause us to lose and cause our seeding to go down? I would love to see us play New Orleans in the first round and then Denver in the 2nd round - that right there will almost guarantee us a trip to the WCF.
I gotta agree. No tanking, winning it all will require beating the best of the best. If we can't do that, then we can't win it all. Circular logic.
Utah is not a great match-up. But, they're a lot better match-up than the Lakers. Whenever we do meet the Lakers, they will grind us up and spit us out, save some miracle. If you tank to the 4 or 5 spot, you'll meet the Lakers in Round 2. At the 3 spot, we get a much much more favorable opponent with Denver. Do you have so little confidence in beating Utah that you'd rather take the buzz-saw in Round 2?
That's exactly right. Ignore all this speculation about who's in what position below us. The ONLY thing we know about the seeds is that the Lakers will be #1, and we're 0-4 against them. We didn't get our rotation together until very late in the season. We have the least experienced duo of point guards. We're just getting Carl Landry back from a traumatic incident and injury. More than any other team, we need time to get our act together. So: postpone our meeting with the Lakers as long as possible. Win out, aim for #2 or #3, and give yourself two playoff series to get in shape for the big matchup.
