Magic Numbers against the Western Conference

This is covered in a FAQ in Post #2 in this thread.

As long as we're the winningest team of the non division winners, we get a spot in the top 4. Then we're seeded by record. If our record is better than a division winner, we get a higher seed. So we could get the #3 seed if we don't win the division.

This happened last year. LA, Utah, and New Orleans were the division winners. However the top 5 teams by record were LA, New Orleans, SA, Houston, Utah. So it was seeded LA, New Orleans, SA, Utah, Houston. We had home court over Utah because we had a better record even though we were #5 and they were #4. The Spurs were #3 even though they didn't win the Southwest.

 

<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp; TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number &nbsp;Diff</B>
&nbsp;1&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;0-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;31-4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;36</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;2&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;39-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-3&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;25-8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;29</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;3&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;38-20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;22-11&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;26</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;4&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;37-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-5&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;23-10
&nbsp;5&nbsp;Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;35-22&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;17-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;6&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;34-22&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-3&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;21-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;7&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;35-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;24-11&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;23</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;8&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;34-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4-6&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;18-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;23</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;9&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;32-25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;19-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;21</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-2)
10&nbsp;Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;20-37&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;11-22&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
11&nbsp;Wolves&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;18-39&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
12&nbsp;Grizzlies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15-42&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4-9&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
13&nbsp;Clippers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15-43&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-28&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
14&nbsp;OKC&nbsp;Thieves&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13-44&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
15&nbsp;Kings&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12-47&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;12-24&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Deposed</B>

* Indicates the Tie Break is final

<B>Clinched the #14 seed</B>

Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>Feburary 26</B>.

Now that’s what I call a winning streak! The Rockets didn’t just win their 6th straight game. They put a beatdown on the best team in the Eastern Conference on national TV. I haven’t seen their defense look better this season. The Rockets held the Cavs to a season low in points, and Shane and Artest hounded LeBron into 21 points on 7-21 shooting, 1 rebound, and no assists (a career first). I wish this game had been on ESPN with Jeff calling it. He would have had an orgasm.

Yao backed up his “See you in Houston” statement with 28 points on 13-15 shooting. He even broke Ben Wallace’s leg. Scola was solid with 14 points and 9 boards, and Lowry is starting to show what he can bring to this team. The Rockets have some swagger to them right now and are looking very dangerous. The players have a cohesiveness that’s been missing all season, they had over 20 assists for the sixth straight game, and the defense has been downright nasty. Our bandwagon is about to get full. All Magic Numbers drop 1.

Seven games into the Seven Seconds or Less Era, Alvin Gentry’s reign is already showing signs of wear and tear. I wondered if Shaq, Nash, and Hill could keep up with this pace when A’mare went down. Tonight, Steven Nash had to sit out with a rolled ankle. The Suns just don’t have the depth to run this type of system with that many of their starters out. Give Phoenix credit. They were able to crack 100 again, but they were a sieve on defense giving up 132 in a blowout to the Lakers. The entire 4th quarter was a scrub exhibition. At least the Suns are pretty to watch when they lose now. The Suns drop an additional Magic Number.

On tap for Friday: Bucks at Hornets, Blazers at Wolves, Thieves at Mavs, Lakers at Nuggets, Raptors at Suns, Cavs at Spurs, Clippers at Kings, Bobcats at Warriors

Just a head’s up. I won’t be posting Friday’s results until later Saturday morning. The little one is spending the night with her grandparents, and I’m actually taking my wife out on a date.

 

It’s time for another Friday look at the State of the Western Conference Playoff Race. I am using the Magic Numbers from Feb 26 in this post.

The Rockets have certainly chosen the right time to shift into another gear. They’ve won 6 in a row, which includes 2 playoff contenders and an elite team. The team is playing fluidly on offense and moving the ball crisply. The defense has been stepped up and is suffocating right now. This Rockets team is rolling and Magic Numbers are falling. Houston is going to Playoffs, and it's time to start looking at a good seeding and hopefully a manageable opponent in the first round.

<B>The Probables: 10 Games</B>
@Bulls, @Wovles, Raptors, Grizz, @Bobcats, Wolves, Pistons, Clippers, @Kings, @Warriors

These are the teams left on our schedule that we should beat. We went 1-0 last week, taking out the Bobcats at home. Our next three games are against Probables, and we can really knock down Magic Numbers this week with a clean sweep. I’m trying to avoid being overly optimistic and am going to assume a 8-2 finish with the group. That would knock all Magic Numbers down 8, which I’ll use in my analysis below.

Note: I moved the Pistons out of Contender status. They are absolutely imploding and will be lucky to make the playoffs let alone finish with a .500 record. I’m making a winning record be a prerequisite for being on the Contender list, so that eliminates the 76ers and other bottom feeder “Playoff” teams from the East.

<B>The Contenders: 14 Games</B>
@Jazz, Suns, @Nuggets, Lakers, Spurs, @Hornets, @Spurs, @Jazz, @Suns, @Lakers, Blazers, Magic, Hornets, @Mavs

This is the most impressive part of our 6 game winning streak. We took down 3 contenders. If we keep beating these teams, we’re really going to see Magic Numbers fall. We only face the Jazz over this next week. I think we’ll probably go 8-6 against these teams to finish 53-29.

Contenders are now marked in blue.

<B> Top Eight West Contenders</B>

<B>Suns</B>: Raptors, Lakers, @Magic, @Heat, @Rockets, @Spurs, Mavs, Cavs, Thieves, @Warriors, 76ers, Wizards, Nuggets, Jazz, @Blazers, @Jazz, @Kings, Rockets, Kings, @Mavs, @Hornets, @Grizz, @Wolves, Grizz, Warriors

The good news is SSoL is back. The bad news is that Phoenix still has difficulties with good defensive teams or smart offensive ones when they play that style. They’ve rung up high scores 7 games in a row, but they finished last week only 2-2 with losses to the Celtics and Lakers. Steve Nash is already breaking down under the faster pace and missed Thursday’s showdown with the Lakers. They’ve got a high scoring grudge match on tap this week when Shawn Marion and the Raptors visit as well as tough games against the Lakers, Magic, and Heat. This is a gut check test for the Suns, who are now 2 games back of Dallas for the last playoff spot. If they bomb these next few weeks, the Suns could fall out of the playoff race.

With our 8 Probable victories, we knock the Suns out with a combination of 13 Sun losses and Rocket Contender victories. We only play the Suns 3 times this year and have already taken the first game. If we beat them once more, we’ll knock their Magic Number down 3. If we sweep the 2 games, we knock their Number down 5.

The Suns close with 14 Contender games and 11 Probables. That includes a brutal 7 game stretch and another 4 game series that could nail the coffin shut for the Suns. We’ll really see if they’re serious or not over the next 2 weeks. I think they’ll finish 14-11. If we win just one more game from Phoenix, we should close this team out. Even if we don’t, we should only need 2 Contender victories to clinch a Playoff spot over them.

Likelihood: Excellent.
Magic Number: 21
Magic Number over Rockets: 30
Magic Number over Lakers: 41
Projected Record: 47-35
Projected Seed: #9

<B>Mavericks</B>: Thieves, Raptors, @Thieves, Spurs, @Hornets, Wizards, @Suns, @Blazers, @Warriors, @Lakers, Pistons, @Hawks, @Pacers, Warriors, Nuggets, @Cavs, @Wolves, Heat, @Grizz, Suns, Jazz, Hornets, @Hornets, Wolves, Rockets

The Mavericks are taking care of the bad teams, but are getting tripped up by the good ones. They suffered bad losses to the Rockets and Spurs in a 2-2 week. The good news is that their next 3 are against cupcake teams. The bad news is that they follow that up with a back-to-back against the Spurs and Hornets (also huge for the Mavs’ division record). Jason Terry is still out, and Dirk is in a funk. If they lose too many of these games, they could get caught by the Suns.

With our 8 Probable victories, we knock the Mavs out with a combination of 15 Mav losses and Rocket Contender victories. If we beat the Mavs on the last game of the season, we drop their Magic Number by 3. Even if the Mavs win the last game in Dallas, we should wind up with a better division record and take the tie break, reducing their Number by 1.

Dallas closes with 14 Contender and 11 Probable games. I’ll say they wind up with a 14-11 record, which means we’d only need 4 Contender victories of our own to knock them out (maybe less if we take that game in Dallas). I think we’ll do that handily.

Likelihood: Very Good (Excellent if we win that last game in Dallas)
Magic Number: 23
Magic Number over Rockets: 28
Magic Number over Spurs: 32
Magic Number over Hornets: 27
Projected Record: 48-34
Projected Seed: #8

<B>Nuggets</B>: Lakers, @Pacers, @Pistons, Blazers, @Jazz, @Kings, Rockets, Thieves, Clippers, Nets, @Grizz, Wizards, @Suns, @Hornets, @Mavs, Warriors, Knicks, Jazz, Clippers, @Wolves, Thieves, @Lakers, Kings, @Blazers

What a difference a week makes. Before the trade deadline, they looked solid for a top 3 spot. The Nuggets were also in the midst of a brutal 8 game road trip but were 5-1 on it. Then came bad losses to the Bulls and Bucks followed by a 38 point thumping at the hands of the Celtics. They managed to salvage a win over the Hawks for a 1-3 week, but it was a pretty uninspired 1 victory. They have definitely turned back into the Enver Nuggets with dismal defensive effort and a streaky offense. Nene is hurt, and this team looks to be in a deep funk. They face 2 Contenders and 2 weaker teams this week, and they’d better at least get victories over the Pacers and Pistons or they could find themselves in the bottom half of the bracket. They’re only 2.5 games up on Portland and 3 on Utah and face the Blazers twice and Utah once with tie breakers on the line.

With our 8 Probable victories, we knock the Nuggets out with a combination of 18 Nugget losses and Rocket Contender victories. If we beat the Nuggets in Enver on March 9, we take the tie break and drop their Magic Number by 3. If we lose that, the tie break comes down to the Conference Records, where we’re essentially tied right now.

Enver has 10 games left against Contenders and 14 Probables. However, this team has not been playing well, and I’m not assuming they’ll do as well against the Probables right now. I’ll assume Enver goes 13-11 down the stretch although I could easily see their record being worse than that. If we win March 9, we’d only need 4 more Contender victories. If we lose, we’ll probably need 7 more Contender victories.

Likelihood: Good (Excellent if we win in Enver)
Magic Number: 26
Magic Number over Rockets: 24
Magic Number over Blazers: 23
Magic Number over Jazz: 22
Projected Record: 51-31
Projected Seed: #7

<B>Blazers</B>: @Wolves, Spurs, Pacers, @Nuggets, Wolves, Lakers, Mavs, Nets, @Hawks, @Grizz, @Pacers, @Cavs, @Bucks, 76ers, Suns, Grizz, Jazz, @Thieves, @Rockets, @Grizz, @Spurs, Lakers, @Clippers, Thieves, Nuggets

The Blazers were rolling with 4 straight wins before coming to Texas and losing 2 straight to Houston and San Antonio, finishing the week 2-2. Portland’s played tough this season, but the Jazz are only a ½ game back and look almost certain to pass the Blazers.

With our 8 Probable victories, we knock the Blazers out with a combination of 16 Blazer losses and Rocket Contender victories. If we beat the Blazers in Houston on April 5, we take the tie break and knock their Magic Number down 3.

The Blazers have 12 Contender and 13 Probable games left on their schedule, and I think they’ll finish 16-9. If we take the game on April 5, we’d only need to win 4 Contender games to close Portland out. Without that victory we’d have to take 7.

Likelihood: Good (Excellent if we win April 5)
Magic Number: 24
Magic Number over Rockets: 27
Magic Number over Nuggets: 28
Magic Number over Jazz: 25
Projected Record: 51-31
Projected Seed: #6

<B>Hornets</B>: Bucks, @Nets, @76ers, Mavs, Thieves, @Hawks, @Wizards, @Bucks, @Bulls, Rockets, Wolves, Grizz, Warriors, Nuggets, @Knicks, Spurs, @Kings, @Clippers, @Warriors, Jazz, @Heat, Suns, @Mavs, Mavs, @Rockets, Spurs

The Hornets feasted on the bad teams with wins over the Kings and Pistons, but lost in overtime to the Lakers and got stomped by the Jazz a night later. They finished the week 2-2. The good news is they’ve got 3 Probables coming up this week along with the Mavericks, who have been losing lately to good teams.

With our 8 Probable victories, we knock the Hornets out with a combination of 16 Hornet losses and Rocket Contender victories. The Rockets have 2 games left with the Hornets, 1 home and 1 away. If we take both, we knock their Magic Number down 5. If we split, we knock it down 2. We’re likely to lose the tie break with the Hornets if we split the season series 2-2 due to those two #@#*% losses to the Grizz dragging our divisional record down. That could well end up costing home court in the first round.

The Hornets have 11 Contender games (including a brutal 7 game stretch to finish the season) left and 15 Probables. I think they’ll probably do well but ultimately falter in that last batch of games to finish 18-8. If we take both games from the Hornets, we’d need only 3 more Contender victories. If we split those games with the Hornets, we’d need 6 Contender victories. If the Rockets get swept in those 2 games, we’d need 8 Contender victories.

Likelihood: Dicey (Good if we win 1, Excellent if we win both)
Magic Number: 24
Magic Number over Rockets: 28
Magic Number over Spurs: 32
Magic Number over Mavs: 26
Projected Record: 52-30
Projected Seed: #5

<B>Jazz</B>: Kings, @Warriors, Rockets, Nuggets, @Raptors, @Pacers, @Hawks, @Heat, @Magic, Wizards, @Thieves, Rockets, @Suns, Suns, Knicks, @Blazers, Wolves, @Nuggets, @Hornets, @Mavs, @Spurs, Warriors, Clippers, @Lakers

The Jazz are rolling right now, winning 6 straight and looking like one of the best teams in the West. Boozer is finally back, and they only figure to get deeper and better once he’s gotten back into the flow of their game. They are currently only ½ game back of Portland and 3 games back of Enver. The Jazz face the Blazers once more and the Nuggets twice. It looks like they’re going to wrest control of this division and get a top 4 seed.

With our 8 Probable victories, we knock the Jazz out with a combination of 15 Jazz losses and Rocket Contender victories. We have 2 cracks to beat the Jazz in Utah and take the tie break. A single victory would drop the Magic Number 3, and if we got both it would drop 5.

The Jazz do have a tough closing schedule with 14 Contender games, but they seem to be handling every team that comes their way right now. They’re also playing to honor Larry Miller. I think this team is going to finish strong at 19-5. Closing this team out probably comes down to taking at least 1 game from them. Without doing that, we have to get 10 Contender victories, which will be tough. With a victory in Utah, we’d only have to win 7. With a clean sweep in Utah, we’d only have to take 5.

Likelihood: Dicey (Good if we win 1 in Utah, Excellent if we win both in Utah)
Magic Number: 23
Magic Number over Rockets: 27
Magic Number over Blazers: 26
Magic Number over Nuggets: 28
Projected Record: 54-28
Projected Seed: #3

<B>Spurs</B>: Cavs, @Blazers, @Clippers, @Mavs, Wizards, Suns, Bobcats, Lakers, @Rockets, @Thieves, Wolves, Celtics, Rockets, Warriors, @Hawks, Clippers, @Hornets, Thieves, @Pacers, @Cavs, @Thieves, Blazers, Jazz, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets

Big surprise. The Spurs finish their annual Rodeo Road Trip and kick it into another gear. They’re missing Ginobili for at least another couple of weeks, and Duncan was out against Dallas and Portland. This is why they’re the Spurs. Tony Parker stepped up his game and they went 3-0 for the week and are riding a 4 game winning streak.

With our 8 Probable victories, we knock the Spurs out with a combination of 21 Spur losses and Rocket Contender victories. The Rockets have 2 games left with the Spurs, 1 home and 1 away. If we take both, we knock their Magic Number down 5. If we split, we knock it down 2. Once again, we’d get screwed if we tie the Spurs 2-2 because of those Grizz losses. It killed us last year with our tie breaks, and it could very well come back to haunt us again.

They’ve got 13 Contenders and 13 Probables left on their schedule. They’ll probably drop a few games on back-to-backs, but this team will finish 20-6. If we take both games from the Spurs, we’d still have to win 10 games against Contenders. If we win only 1 game, we’d have to win 13. If we lose both, we’d just about win every other game left on our schedule.

Likelihood: Very Unlikely (Dicey if we beat them twice more, Unlikely if we beat them once, Bleak if we lose twice)
Magic Number: 29
Magic Number over Rockets: 23
Magic Number over Mavs: 21
Magic Number over Hornets: 22
Projected Record: 59-23
Projected Seed: #2

<B>Lakers</B>: @Nuggets, @Suns, Grizz, Wolves, @Blazers, @Rockets, @Spurs, Dallas, 76ers, Warriors, @Bulls, @Thieves, @Pistons, @Nets, @Hawks, @Bobcats, @Bucks, Rockets, Clippers, @Kings, Nuggets, @Blazers, Grizz, Jazz

The Lakers keep trucking along, racking up victories. They’ve been playing down to the level of their competition, but they still find ways to get wins most nights. They went 4-0 last week, which included 2 impressive wins over the Suns and Hornets. This team is going to be the #1 seed.

With our 8 Probable victories, we’d need a combination of 28 Laker losses and Rocket Contender victories. That’s not happening even if we take both remaining games from LA. Our only real hope with the Lakers is that they take down a slew of Western Conference Contenders and lose twice to us.

The Lakers have 11 Contender games left and 13 Probables. I imagine they’ll slack a bit at the end after they’ve clinched the #1 seed, but they’ll still cruise to a 20-4 finish.

Likelihood: Not happening
Magic Number: 36
Magic Number over Rockets: 14
Magic Number over Suns: 9
Projected Record: 68-14
Projected Seed: #1

<B>Projected Matchups</B>:
#1 Lakers hosting #8 Mavericks
#2 Spurs hosting #7 Nuggets
#3 Jazz hosting #6 Blazers
#4 Rockets hosting #5 Hornets

 

<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp; TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number &nbsp;Diff</B>
&nbsp;1&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-11&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;0-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;31-5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;35</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;2&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;39-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-3&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;25-8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;28</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;3&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;39-20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;23-11&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;26</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;4&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;37-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-5&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;23-10
&nbsp;5&nbsp;Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;36-22&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;18-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;6&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;35-22&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-3&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;21-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;7&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;35-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;24-11&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;23</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;8&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;35-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4-6&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;19-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;23</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;9&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;33-25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;19-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;21</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
10&nbsp;Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;20-38&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;11-22&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
11&nbsp;Wolves&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;18-40&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-26&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
12&nbsp;Grizzlies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15-42&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4-9&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
13&nbsp;Clippers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15-44&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-29&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
14&nbsp;OKC&nbsp;Thieves&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13-45&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-28&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Dislocated</B>

* Indicates the Tie Break is final

<B>Clinched the #13 seed</B>

Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>Feburary 27</B>.

The Rockets got a well-deserved day off after the ass-whooping they gave the Cavs, and so did I. Our daughter spent the night with my wife’s parents, and we went out for dinner. There were, however, a full slate of games taking place Friday night. I was hoping for some serious Number dropping, but there wasn’t much Rocket love tonight. There was movement at the very top of the standings and at the bottom, but for our main competition 3 - 9? Not so much.

I hate to do this. You hate to do this, but it’s necessary. Our little Enver Nuggets have earned a “d” back. Just a little one though. They’ll have to play defense for more than 1 game before I give them a capital letter. For tonight at least they’re the denver Nuggets. A night after Kobe and crew lit up the Suns for 132, denver held the Lakers to 29.8% (the second lowest in Laker history) shooting en route to a 90-79 vicotry. I don’t know if the Nuggets are going to turn things around, but I give them props for pulling out of their skid against the Hawks and then the Lakers. The Lakers lose a Magic Number.

LeBron and company didn’t like the aforementioned ass kicking they received in Houston and took it out on the Spurs. James scored 30 points on 12-23 shooting along with 14 boards and 4 assists before sitting out the fourth quarter. Tim Duncan was out for a third straight game but should be back on Sunday. The Spurs are still 2.5 games up on the Rockets and will be tough to catch, but they’re Magic Number drops 1.

I freaking hate the OKC Thieves, and I just got one more reason. They had to rescind the trade for Tyson Chandler. He didn’t look like he had a bad toe when he tipped in the game winner over the Bucks with 3.3 seconds remaining. Chris Paul had 9 points and 20 assists while David West added 28 points and 12 rebounds. If you want to blame someone for the Hornets not losing a point, direct your ire at Clay Bennett.

Speaking of the OKC Thieves, they couldn’t even hold on to beat the Mavs tonight, blowing a late 12 point lead in an overtime loss. They even allowed Dirk to get back in a groove as the Wunderkind busted loose for 41 points and 9 boards. The only silver lining in this game is that the Thieves lose a Magic Number. Yep that’s right, we have officially clinched over the Thieves and secured at least the #13 seed. Up next: the Clippers and the #12 seed.

The Blazers got roughed up in Texas and upon returning to Portland, took out some frustration on the visiting Wolves and hammered the Pups 102-82. Minnesota loses a Magic Number.

The Suns rebounded from an ugly Laker loss, to hang 133 on the visiting Raptors who could only come up with 113. And they call themselves the Suns of the Great White North, eh? No Steve Nash again, but Shaq went crazy, scoring 45 in a dominating win. The Suns now embark on a brutal 7 game stretch against a murderer’s row of Contenders. If they bomb this portion, they could see their season over in Seven Games or Less.

It was a Battle of Cellar Dwellers in Sacramento. A few days after hanging a loss on the Celtics, the Clippers showed their true colors and lost to the worst team in basketball. The loss drops the Clips a point. Even though they won, the Mavs victory tonight officially eliminates the Kings from the Playoffs so we’re down to a board of 14. I'm happy about this from a writer's standpoint. It's hard to come up with so many different ways to say a team sucks, and Sacramento does indeed suck.

The Warriors wilted under the steely gaze of MJ and the playoff surging Bobcats. The last bit should be a joke, but we’re talking about the bottom of the Easter Conference. The Warriors lose a Magic Number.

The Rockets return to action on Saturday to face the new look Bulls. We go back out on the road after a 6 game homestand. This is a team we should beat, but our last road game was an embarrassing loss to the Bucks. The Rockets need to make sure they pack their newfound intensity and discipline. If the Rockets play with the same intensity on defense and with the same crisp offense, this should be a victory.

Also on tap for Saturday: Thieves at Grizz, Kings at Jazz, Bobcats at Clippers

 

Thanks! I wish I got paid. It's a labor of love and indulges my slight tendency towards OCD when it comes to tracking things mathematically. Although if anyone knows someone in the Rockets organization, I work cheap.

My wife says I'm the love guru.

Now it's a thread. It's not officially thread until DD shares of some of that post count love.