I really think we're going to take the division and get at least the #3 seed, which unfortunately means we have a decent chance to get the Jazz. Who knows where anyone will fall though. There have been some truly unexpected results that last few days.
What's with ESPN? According to them, Utah and Blazer (which we beat tonight) has qualified for playoffs but we aren't in yet even though the Suns lost.
There are five games left in the season, but the Suns score so many points that they can easily manage to win 7. And the Rockets are not really as good as their record seems to show, so they can lose 8. That combination gives the Suns the number 8 seed. Another example of media Rocket hate.
any idea why ESPN still hasn''t showed us as clinching a playoff spot? My understadning is that everyone, other than the Mavs, has clinched - am I wrong? For whatever reason they don't show us or the Hornets clinching - yet they have the Jazz and Portland clinching!
ESPN is just flat out wrong. Right now the Suns can max out with 47 wins. We have 48 wins, so we are in. The Hornets should be in as well. They're 2-0 against the Suns with 47 wins. Assuming they lost all of their games, Dallas would get to at least 48 wins so they would be out a multiple team tie break. Only the Jazz who are 2-2 could possibly finish in a tie with the Suns. That 2-0 record of the Hornets would give them the 2 team tie break or assure that the Suns would finish at the bottom of a Jazz-Suns-Hornets tie. The top 7 seeds are in with only the Mavs on the outside, but that changes with one more Mav win or one more Sun loss.
I like how people actually care whether or not we've clinched. We've clinched up to 6th seed as far as I'm concerned. We're 2 games on Utah and I just don't see them catching us with 5 games left. We'd basically have to lose to the Hornets to go further than 5th seed IMO, because if we beat them, I can't see them catching us. Obviously anything can happen, but I would put money on the Rockets making at least 5th seed in the playoffs.
I thought I’d use the NBA’s day of rest to update the situation with the Spurs. The Rockets currently sit at 49-28, a ½ game behind the Spurs at 49-27. We’re right within striking distance, but we are rapidly running out of runway to take the Spurs down. We have a Magic Number of 7 to close the Spurs out, and the Spurs have a number of 6 to close us out. The Remaining Schedules: Rockets – Magic, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets, @Mavs The Rockets had a maddening stretch of games the past few weeks. We’ve missed Landry as we played 3 Contenders on the road. The Spur victory was so sweet, but seems ages ago at this point. The Jazz loss was frustrating and so was the effort against the Suns and Lakers, but the Rockets looked like an elite team last night as they took every shot the Blazers had and answered it coolly. If that Rockets teams shows up the rest of the season, I think we’re in stellar shape. The Rockets have 3 Contenders, but 2 of those are at home. We have played so much better at the Toyota Center, and I like us to take both of these games. I also think we’ll bring focus and take down the Kings and Warriors. Can we run the table and close with a 6 game winning streak? I like our chances in Dallas the last game of the season, especially if the Mavs are locked into the #8 seed regardless of the outcome. I do think Utah will have the #7 seed clinched the day before we play the Mavs, so that might give us a slight advantage. The Rockets should bring their best effort to enter the Playoffs on a roll. I predict the Rockets will sweep these games, but I can see 4-1 if the Rockets get careless. That would drop the Spurs 5 or 4 points, which is close but not enough. We’d need help from Spurs. Spurs - @Thieves, Blazers, Jazz, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets The Spurs haven’t been playing well at all lately, losing 3 of their last 4. San Antonio lost a huge game in New Orleans in the closing seconds and dropped a nailbiter when they hosted the Thieves. They barely got by Indiana and got schooled by the Cavs. I know they’re the Spurs and usually flip a switch around the Playoffs, but this squad doesn’t inspire the same sort of confidence that past Spurs teams have exuded. It was interesting that Popovich put Manu in the starting lineup. I took that as a slight sign of desperation to shake things up. This is also an old team with 2 sets of back-to-backs, and Popovich usually rests Duncan on the second game. The Spurs have to be concerned about @Thieves, Blazers this week. The Thieves have won the last 2 games against the Spurs and have to be excited to play them again in OKC. The Blazers game could well decide home court in a possible Spurs-Blazers #4-#5 matchup in the first round. The winner gets the tie break. The back-to-back with the Kings and Warriors is intriguing, more so than our matchup. The Warriors nearly beat the Spurs in San Antoino a week ago, and I could see them getting hot against a team resting Duncan. I expect them to beat Utah at home (that game in New Orleans was a fluke Hornet lazy effort), and I also see them beating the Hornets at home. Right now, I’ll call a loss to Portland and wins against the Jazz and Hornets. However, I expect them to drop 1 of their Probables for a 4-2 finish. That drops the Spurs 2 points, and we would win the Southwest if we swept all 5 of our games. If we went 4-1, we would wind up tied with the Spurs. The Tie Break Situation: For a 2 team tie break, the procedures to determine the winner are as follows: 1. Better winning percentage in games against each other. 2. Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if tied teams are in same division). 3. Better winning percentage against teams in own conference. 4. Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position). 1. Better winning percentage in games against each other: The Rockets and Spurs split their season series 2-2. This is a tie, so move on the next step. Criterion 2: Division Record Rockets Division Record: 8-6 Rockets Division Record Magic Number to Tie: 2 Rockets Division Record Magic Number to Win: 3 Spurs Division Record: 9-6 Spurs Division Record Magic Number to Tie: 1 Spurs Division Record Magic Number to Win: 2 Rockets Division Games: Hornets, @Mavs Spurs Conference Games: Hornets We control our own destiny in this tie break. A pair of wins against the Hornets and Mavs to close the season, and we tie the Spurs here. We could win it outright if the Hornets win that last game in San Antonio, but we likely would have a better overall record anyways if that happens. If we lose either game, we will likely lose the divisional tie break and the overall tie break with the Spurs. I am expecting the teams to be tied in this criterion when the dust settles. Criterion 3: Conference Record Rockets Conference Record: 32-16 Rockets Conference Record Magic Number to Tie: 5 Rockets Conference Record Magic Number to Win: 6 Spurs Conference Record: 31-15 Spurs Conference Record Magic Number to Tie: 5 Spurs Conference Record Magic Number to Win: 6 Rockets Conference Games: @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets, @Mavs Spurs Conference Games: @Thieves, Blazers, Jazz, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets We have only 1 game left against the Eastern Conference (Tuesday when we host the Magic), and the Spurs are done. If we beat the Magic and we end up tied with the Spurs, we’ll be tied in Conference Record. If we lose to the Magic and wind up tied, we’ll have won this criterion. Criterion 4: Better Winning Percentage against Playoff Teams Rockets Record: 13-12 Rockets Winning Pct: .520 Rockets Magic Number to Win: 2* Spurs Record: 10-12 Spurs Winning Pct: .455 Spurs Magic Number to Win: 4* *Please note that these Magic Numbers are volatile since the Spurs play only 25 of these games and the Rockets 27. Every Rocket game is worth .037 toward their final winning percentage while each Spur game counts .04 toward their final percentage. The next Spur loss would drop their number 2. Rockets Remaining Games: Hornets, @Mavs Spurs Conference Games: Blazers, Jazz, Hornets We just about have this criterion wrapped up. 1 more Spur loss gives us the edge here or 2 more victories for the Rockets over Playoff teams has us winning this final tie break criterion. Final Prediction: If we win our last 2 games, we will win this division. I think we’ll finish no worse than 4-1 down the stretch, which should guarantee us at least a tie with the Spurs. With victories over the Hornets and Mavs, we will win the tie break and the division. I also think the Nuggets would have the #2 seed, and we’d be #3. Losses in either game would likely extinguish any Southwest Division title hopes. I just don’t see the Spurs losing more than 2 games, which means we’d be tied at best and losing the Divisional Tie Break. My greatest fear is a 5 game winning streak spoiled by a Mavs upset on the last day. If we go 5-0, we will win the division outright and possibly take down the Nuggets for the #2 spot. I stand by my earlier prediction on last Friday. The Rockets will win this division when the dust settles for their first Southwest crown and first division title since the first title run in 1994 (back when we were in the Midwest).
That Hornets game is key in so many ways. The Mavs game might be an easy win if the Mavs have locked in by then.
So you can't see the Spurs losing more than 2 games, and you can't see the Spurs losing less than 2 games? Sounds like a trip to Vegas is in your future.
excellent information Scribo. its been so long since the rox have won a division crown that i can't even fathom it at this point. i'm just going to sit back, watch every game and hope/pray the rox just play solid ball the rest of the way, that's all i can ask for, play hard and smart and let the chips fall where they may.
I definitely do not see the Spurs losing more than 2 games and might be tempted to put money on that if I was a betting man. I think it is very likely that they will lose exactly 2 games, but they are a team that could certainly flip the proverbial switch and win out, making all of this moot. That's my prediction today, but check back with me in two days and I could very well be singing a different tune.
If we play too well, it looks like a matchup with the Jazz awaits us. While I want to be playing at the top of our game coming playoff time, I'd rather someone else take out the Jazz.
I thought the same but ESPN is ridiculously disgraceful if they think we are not in the playoffs when the Suns can only have 47 wins. Don't they have any reputation to protect.
