Magic Numbers against the Western Conference

<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp; TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number &nbsp;Diff</B>
&nbsp;1&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;59-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;0-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;38-7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;19</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;2&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;50-26&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;31-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;3&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-26&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-6&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;31-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;4&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-6&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;31-15
&nbsp;5&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;47-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-4&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;29-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;6&nbsp;Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;47-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;25-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;7&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-29&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;31-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;8&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-30&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-7&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;24-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;9&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;41-34&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;25-20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Eclipsed</B>

* Indicates the Tie Break is final

<B>Clinched the #8 seed</B>

Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>April 2</B>.

Thursday’s Game
No real surprise in Enver tonight. The Jazz went on the road against a winning team, and they lost for the 16th straight time. This is reaching epicly suck-worthy territory here. Utah still has 4 games against Contenders on the road, and this streak will likely reach 20 games and see the Jazz at #7 when the season ends. J.R. Smith had 28 points and 7 assists, and Carmelo added 23 points and 9 rebounds for the Nuggets. Deron Williams had 18 points and 10 assists, and Mehmet Okur chipped in 14 points and 15 boards for the Jazz, who lose a Magic Number.

Going to Hollywood
The Rockets get back to work after their ugly loss to the Suns as they travel to LA to face the senior varsity team. The Lakers are just 2 games behind Cleveland (who finally lost tonight) for the NBA’s best record, but the Lakers looked very shaky on the second half of their road trip. Hopefully they still haven’t found their groove in their first game back at Staples Center, but I have a feeling Kobe is mighty keen to show Ron up. We can’t afford sloppy play if we want to win, but if Shane and Ron can contain Darth Mamba and we don’t go braindead on offense, the Rockets can win this one. It’s a conference game and also a game against a Playoff team, so it would be a huge pickup in our race against the Spurs.

Also on tap for Friday: Spurs at Pacers, Blazers at Thieves, Mavs at Grizz, Wolves at Jazz, Kings at Suns, Hornets at Warriors

 

It’s time for another Friday look at the State of the Western Conference Playoff Race. I’m using Magic Numbers from April 2 in this post. Only 13 more days until the end of the season, so this is the next to last State of the Race post. My how the season flies by.

I am predicting big things for the Rockets this week and some other surprises.

<B>Rockets</B>: @Lakers, Blazers, Magic, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets, @Mavs

<B>Last Week: 1-1</B>
@ROCKETS 110, Clippers 93
@Suns 114, ROCKETS 109

There’s no way to describe this week other than underwhelming. I went through Rocket withdrawal as the team went on Spring Break. It was awesome to see them hammer a pathetic Clippers team, but the loss in Phoenix was brutal and was a stark reminder of the team’s deficiencies. When we play sloppy ball, don’t focus on defense, and give up offensive rebounds, we struggle pretty mightily against good teams. When we take care of things, we can beat and should beat almost any team every single night. We’ve got 7 crucial games left that could see us anywhere from #6 to #2. The game on Sunday against the Blazers is absolutely critical for our home court prospects.

The Rockets have 5 Contender (3H, 2A) and 3 Probable (0H, 2A) games left on their schedule. We will beat the Kings and Warriors, and that will drop all Magic Numbers 2.

So how we will we fare against the 5 Contenders? I’m going to assume that Suns game was partly due to rust, but I’m not keen on our chances to win all of these games. Even though the Lakers are sputtering, I expect Kobe to be fired up against Ron. It’ll be close and we could steal a victory, but I’ll call a Laker win. I like all of our home games. We should be 2-0 against Portland (damn you, Roy!), and I think we will take care of business on Sunday. I feel good about the Magic and the Hornets as well. Both are good teams, but we should be able to handle them in Houston.

That leaves the Mavs game on the last day of the season. I expect we’ll have a lot to play for that night. Home court in the first round and a division title will likely be on the line. We could also be in the running for home court in the second round. The Mavs, on the other hand, will likely be playing for nothing. The Jazz or Hornets could plummet, but I’m pretty sure the Mavs will be locked into the #8 seed and might rest some of their players on that last game. Regardless, Dallas has been spotty lately against good teams, both at home and on the road. I think we’ll win that game.

That has us at 6-1 down the stretch to finish 54-28 and the #2 seed and the Southwest division winner. It might optimistic, but this team is certainly capable of a stretch like that. I don’t see us finishing worse than 5-2. I guess we’ll see how things look after this weekend.

<B> Top Eight West Contenders</B>

<B>Suns</B>: Kings, @Mavs, @Hornets, @Grizz, @Wolves, Grizz, Warriors

<B>Last Week: 1-2</B>
@Jazz 104, SUNS 99
@Kings 126, SUNS 118
@SUNS 114, Rockets 109

Stick a fork in the Suns already. Despite their victory over a sloppy Rockets team, the Suns are finished. They 2-3 on their 9 Games of Mostly Doom, which included an egregiously blown lead to Utah and a straight up asskicking at the hands of woeful Suckramento. I expect them to lose to the Mavs and probably the Hornets. If they lose in Dallas on Sunday, it should officially be over for Phoenix. If they get through the next 3 games undefeated, they could run the table and make things interesting for Dallas. But I could also win the lottery next week. Neither one of those is happening.

We’ve already closed Phoenix out and clinched a Playoff spot.

Phoenix has 2 Contender (0H, 2A) and 5 Probable (3H, 2A) games left on their schedule. I can’t pick them to win all of their Probables after that ugly loss to the Kings. They have 3 games in 4 nights (@Grizz, @Wolves, Grizz), and I think they’ll drop one of those. I also think they’ll lose in Dallas against a Mavs team that will be fired up to put a stake in the Suns once and for all. The Hornets will also capitalize on the weakest team in their own brutal 7 game stretch. That’s a 4-3 finish for the Suns, which would see them 45-37 and several games out of the Playoffs.

Likelihood: Done
Magic Number: Eclipsed
Magic Number over Mavericks: 12 (-3)
Projected Record: 47-35
Projected Seed: #9

<B>Mavericks</B>: @Grizz, Suns, Jazz, Hornets, @Hornets, Wolves, Rockets

<B>Last Week: 2-2</B>
Nuggets 103, @MAVS 101
@Cavs 102, MAVS 74
MAVS 108, @Wolves 88
@MAVS 98, Heat 96

The Mavs had a so-so week. They started the week looking like they were about to jump up a few spots, but losses to the Nuggets and Cavs likely cemented them in the #8 spot. The loss in Cleveland is understandable, but they missed a golden opportunity against Enver. Still they salvaged the week by hammering the Wolves on the road and rallying to beat the Heat in Dallas. If the Jazz or Hornets completely fall apart, the Mavs could move up if they take care of business. They have lost the tie breaks with both teams however.

With our 2 Probable victories, we knock the Mavs out with a combination of 3 Mav losses and Rocket Contender victories. If we beat the Mavs on the last game of the season, we drop their Magic Number by 3. We should win the tie break against the Mavs (only 1 more Rockets divisional win or Mavs divisional loss clinches the tie break), and if we do that their Magic Number drops 1 even if we lose that last game in Dallas.

Dallas has 5 Contender (4H, 1A) and 2 Probable (1H, 1A) games left on their schedule. They should win both of their Probables, but I see them struggling against the Contenders. They have 4 of those contests at home, but they were just 1-1 against Contenders at home last week. And that lone win was due more to the Heat collapsing than the Mavs outshining them. They’ll beat the Suns and Jazz, but will lose both games to the Hornets and to the Rockets on the last day of the season. That’s a 4-3 finish and a final record of 49-33. Not a bad record for a Mavs team that I expected to miss the Playoffs earlier this year, but they’re not rising above #8.

It’s just a matter of time before we close this team out.

Likelihood: Damn Near Certain
Magic Number: 5 (-3)
Magic Number over Rockets: 11 (-3)
Magic Number over Suns: 4 (-4)
Magic Number over Spurs: 12 (-4)
Magic Number over Hornets: 11 (-3)
Magic Number over Blazers: 10 (-2)
Magic Number over Jazz: 9 (-4)
Projected Record: 49-33
Projected Seed: #8

<B>Jazz</B>: Wolves, @Hornets, @Mavs, @Spurs, Warriors, Clippers, @Lakers

<B>Last Week: 2-2</B>
@JAZZ 104, Suns 99
@JAZZ 112, Knicks 104
@Blazers 125, JAZZ 104
@Nuggets 114, JAZZ 104

The Jazz are a true Jeckyl and Hyde team. They are super tough at home, and they blow chunks on the road. It was no surprise that they lost in Portland and Enver, which is now 16 straight road losses to winning teams. What was surprising were the blown leads at home. Only an epic collapse by the Suns allowed the Jazz to escape with an overtime victory in a game they should have run away with. They also nearly coughed up a lead to the Knicks. They still have 4 road games left against Contenders, and it’s going to be hard for them to rise above #7.

With our 2 Probable victories, we knock the Jazz out with a combination of 4 Jazz losses and Rocket Contender victories.

Utah has 4 Contender (0H, 4A) and 2 Probable (3H, 0A) games left on their schedule. They get all their Probables at home and should win all 3 of them, despite their sloppy play this week. The Contender games are going to trip them up. They’ll drop the first three, but I think they’ll beat LA. I’m sure Phil will rest the gang up, especially if losing that game means drawing the Mavs and winning gives them a 7 game series with the Jazz. That’s a 4-3 finish and a 50-32 record.

They have the tie break on the Mavs so that should be good enough for #7, but if the Mavs win 6 or more of their games, the Jazz could slip to #8.

The Rockets should close the Jazz with 1 more Contender victory.

Likelihood: Excellent
Magic Number: 6 (-3)
Magic Number over Rockets: 9 (-4)
Magic Number over Blazers: 9 (-3)
Magic Number over Nuggets: 11 (-2)
Magic Number over Hornets: 9 (-3)
Magic Number over Mavs: 7 (-4)
Magic Number over Suns: 3 (-4)
Projected Record: 50-32
Projected Seed: #7

<B>Hornets</B>: @Warriors, Jazz, @Heat, Suns, @Mavs, Mavs, @Rockets, @Spurs

<B>Last Week: 3-1</B>
@Knicks 103, HORNETS 93
@HORNETS 90, Spurs 86
HORNETS 111, @Kings 110
HORNETS 104, @Clippers 98

The Hornets are hands-down the most inconsistent Contender in the Western Conference field. When they’re on and they bring their best effort, they can beat anyone. All too often they don’t show much effort and let bad teams hang around or blow games to Contenders. They started this week with an absolutely brutal loss to the Knicks (complete with technicals and ejections), but they followed that up with an amazingly clutch victory over the Spurs. A few nights later they needed a Rasual Butler 3 at the buzzer to beat Suckramento, and they played a close game with the JV Clippers. They currently stand #5, just a ½ game away from home court in the first round, but they’re about to begin a very difficult closing stretch. Due to Sun copyrights, I’m calling it the 7 Games of Peril.

With our 2 Probable victories, we knock the Hornets out with a combination of 6 Hornet losses and Rocket Contender victories. The Rockets lead the season series 2-1. If we win in Houston on April 13, we take the tie break and drop the Hornets 3. If we lose, we would very likely lose the tie break because of our division record. As a bonus, we draw the Hornets on the second night of a back-to-back they have with us and Dallas.

New Orleans has 7 Contender (4H, 3A) and 1 Probable (0H, 1A) games left on their schedule. They’ll beat the Warriors before they begin the 7 Games of Peril, and I think they’ll do all right on this stretch. The Hornets seem to have the Mavs’ number, and they’ll take both games from Dallas. They’ll also beat the Suns and Jazz on their home floor. I think the Heat will beat them in Miami, and they’ll drop their last 2 games to us and the Spurs. That’s a 5-3 finish and a 52-30 record.

If we take that game from the Hornets, we need just 1 more victory to close them out. If we lose it, we would likely need at least 3 more Contender victories to finish the Hornets off.

Likelihood: Good (Damn Near Certain if we win April 13, Tough if we lose)
Magic Number: 8 (-2)
Magic Number over Rockets: 9 (-4)
Magic Number over Spurs: 10 (-5)
Magic Number over Mavs: 6 (-5)
Magic Number over Jazz: 7 (-5)
Magic Number over Nuggets: 10 (-3)
Magic Number over Blazers: 8 (-4)
Magic Number over Suns: 1 (-6)
Projected Record: 52-30
Projected Seed: #6

<B>Spurs</B>: @Pacers, @Cavs, @Thieves, Blazers, Jazz, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets

<B>Last Week: 1-2</B>
@SPURS 111, Clippers 98
@Hornets 90, SPURS 86
Thieves 96, @SPURS 95

The Spurs got Manu back, and they were supposed to start rolling towards the Playoffs. Things kicked off well with a demolition of the Clippers, but then they lost a hard-fought game in New Orleans as the Hornets out-executed them down the stretch. That was followed up with a loss to a wretched Thieves team that apparently has San Antonio’s number. I’m not quite sure what to think of this team. They are still a team that should strike fear in any team that meets them in the Playoffs, but they’re not exactly playing well at the moment. The Rockets are in a dogfight for the division lead, and the Nuggets are threatening to take the #2 seed. The Blazers can take the tie break over the Spurs with a win in SA, and the Spurs could fall to #5 if they’re not careful.

With our 2 Probable victories, we knock the Spurs out with a combination of 7 Spur losses and Rocket Contender victories. If we take the tie break, we can shave that number 1.

I’ll be posting an in-depth look at the race for the Southwest division title on Monday after all teams play critical games over the weekend. I’ll also continue to update this situation daily in my Magic Number posts.

San Antonio has 4 Contender (3H, 1A) and 4 Probable (0H, 4A) games left on their schedule. With their recent play, I really think they’ll drop 1 Probable game, either the road game in Indiana or OKC. I expect Cleveland to continue their home court domination with a victory over the Spurs on Sunday. The Blazers will notch the upset next Wednesday as the Spurs play their last set of back-to-backs, which will give the Blazers the tie break advantage over the Spurs. The Spurs will take care of the woeful road Jazz and beat the Hornets on the last day of the season. That’s a 5-3 finish and a 53-29 record, which leaves the Spurs a game out for the division and home court.

If we win the tie break, we would need 3 more Contender victories, but if we lose it, we’d need 4. I like our chances if we win the tie break. We have 3 home games against Contenders. Without the tie break, we have to win 4 of our 5 Contender games.

Likelihood: Dicey (Tough if we lose the tie break, Good if we get it.)
Magic Number: 9 (-3)
Magic Number over Rockets: 8 (-2)
Magic Number over Mavs: 4 (-4)
Magic Number over Hornets: 8 (-2)
Magic Number over Suns: Eclipsed
Projected Record: 53-29
Projected Seed: #5

<B>Blazers</B>: @Thieves, @Rockets, @Grizz, @Spurs, Lakers, @Clippers, Thieves, Nuggets

<B>Last Week: 2-0</B>
@BLAZERS 86, Grizz 66
@BLAZERS 125, Jazz 104

The Blazers had their own Spring Break this past week with only 2 games on their schedule. They predictably destroyed the Grizz and then took advantage of an awful road team by putting a thorough beatdown on the Jazz. The Blazers at this point look like they will be at least the #5 seed and strong contenders for home court in the first round. The Rockets host them on Sunday for an absolutely critical game that decides the tie break. The Blazers host the Nuggets on the last game of the season and could be playing for the division title if they finish strong.

With our 2 Probable victories, we knock the Blazers out with a combination of 6 Blazer losses and Rocket Contender victories. If we beat the Blazers in Houston on April 5, we take the tie break and knock their Magic Number down 3. If we lose that game, the Blazers clinch the tie break over the Rockets.

Portland has 4 Contender (2H, 2A) and 4 Probable (2H, 2A) games left on their schedule. The Blazers haven’t lost to a scrub team in a while, and they’ll sweep all 4 of their Probables. They catch the Spurs on the tail end of a back-to-back, and I think they’ll take a game that will probably see Duncan resting. I also think they’ll beat the Nuggets on the last day of the season. The Lakers will trip them up, and the Rockets will take the game in Houston on Sunday. That’s a 6-2 finish and a 53-29 record.

We really have to win the game on Sunday if we want to close this team out. This could very well be our first round opponent if they wind up #5, and I would love to get home court for that series. With a victory Sunday, we’d likely only need 2 more Contender victories to finish the Blazers off. If we lose that game, we’d likely need to win every other game to close them out.

Likelihood: Dicey (Very Good if we win Sunday, Extremely Difficult if we lose)
Magic Number: 8 (-1)
Magic Number over Rockets: 9 (-3)
Magic Number over Nuggets: 10 (-2)
Magic Number over Jazz: 7 (-4)
Magic Number over Hornets: 9 (-3)
Magic Number over Mavs: 6 (-4)
Magic Number over Suns: 2 (-4)
Projected Record: 53-29
Projected Seed: #4

<B>Nuggets</B>: Clippers, @Wolves, Thieves, @Lakers, Kings, @Blazers

<B>Last Week: 4-0</B>
NUGGETS 103, @Mavs 101
@NUGGETS 129, Warriors 116
@NUGGETS 111, Knicks 104
@NUGGETS 114, Jazz 104

The Nuggets picked the right time to go on a roll. They won all 4 of their games this past week, and 10 of their last 11 overall. Their schedule is pretty easy down the stretch, but they need to take advantage or a hot Blazers team could catch them on the last day of the season when they play in Portland. Still, this team looks like a lock for the Northwest and a top 3 seed. The Rockets own the 2 team tie break on them, and the Spurs should own it as well, so the Nuggets need to finish above both to get the #2 seed and home court through the first two rounds.

With our 2 Probable victories, we knock the Nuggets out with a combination of 6 Nugget losses and Rocket Contender victories. The Rockets own the tie break over the Nuggets after taking the season series 3-1.

Enver has 2 Contenders (0H, 2A) and 4 Probable (3H, 1A) games left on their schedule. The Nuggets have been taking care of business against bad teams, so I expect them to win all 4 of their Probables. I don’t like them in LA or in Portland on the last day of the season. The Lakers are sure to be looking for a little payback for their horrible loss in Enver, and Portland could be playing for home court. They’ll finish 4-2 and an impressive 54-28 record.

That means we need 4 Contender victories of our own to close them out. It’s going to be very tough to pull that out, but I think we will.

Likelihood: Very Tough
Magic Number: 8 (-1)
Magic Number over Rockets: 6 (-5)
Magic Number over Blazers: 6 (-4)
Magic Number over Jazz: 4 (-6)
Magic Number over Hornets: 6 (-5)
Magic Number over Mavs: 2 (-6)
Magic Number over Suns: Eclipsed
Projected Record: 54-28
Projected Seed: #3

<B>Lakers</B>: Rockets, Clippers, @Kings, Nuggets, @Blazers, Grizz, Jazz

<B>Last Week: 2-2</B>
LAKERS 103, @Nets 95
@Hawks 86, LAKERS 76
@Bobcats 94, LAKERS 84
LAKERS 104, @Bucks 98

The Lakers clinched the #1 seed in the Western Conference in the midst of their 7 game road trip. That road trip started out very impressively for the Lakers, but they tailed off in the last 4 games. They handled the Nets with an injured Kobe, but then had 2 bad games in a row with losses to the Hawks and Bobcats. There’s no shame in losing in Atlanta, and the Bobcats have the Lakers’ number for some strange reason. The Lakers nearly made it a 3 game losing streak but held on to beat the Bucks. For a team fighting the Cavs for best record, the Lakers aren’t putting forth their best effort. Hopefully that lackluster play continues when the Rockets come to town.

LA has 4 Contender (3H, 1A) and 3 Probable (2H, 1A) games left on their schedule. They will annihilate the Probables and mow down most of the Contenders. I do think the #8 seed will be on the line when the Lakers host the Jazz. Phil would be crazy not to rest his team to insure a Jazz victory. The Mavs are a cakewalk first round opponent, while the Jazz would incredibly tough, especially with a possible Spurs matchup in the second round. They’ll finish 6-1 and a record 65-17

Likelihood: Not This Year
Magic Number: 19 (-3)
Magic Number over Cavs: 9 (-3)
Cavs’ Number over Lakers: 6 (-5)
Projected Record: 66-16
Confirmed Seed: #1

<B>Projected Matchups</B>:
#1 Lakers hosting #8 Mavs
#2 Rockets hosting #7 Jazz
#3 Nuggets hosting #6 Hornets
#4 Blazers hosting #5 Spurs

Why the hell do I keep hitting the Jazz when I put these together? That’s our reward for winning the Southwest? Things will probably look much different for next week’s State of the Race.

<B>This Week’s Key Head to Head Matchups</B>:
Friday: Rockets at Lakers
Sunday: Spurs at Cavs
Sunday: Suns at Mavs
Sunday: Blazers at Rockets
Sunday: Jazz at Hornets
Tuesday: Hornets at Heat
Tuesday: Magic at Rockets
Wednesday: Suns at Hornets
Wednesday: Blazers at Spurs
Wednesday: Jazz at Mavs
Thursday: Nuggets at Lakers

 

Thanks Clutch!

I agree with the 5-2 mark to get home court, but that probably holds up only if we beat the Blazers on Sunday. Otherwise, I think we likely would wind up tied with Portland, and the Blazers would get home court.

5-2 might very well see us tied with the Spurs as well. I think they will go 5-3 down the stretch. It all depends on what teams the Rockets and Spurs lose to. The tie break is so close right now, and either team could get it.

I really hope we can go 6-1, but a 3 way tie with the Spurs, Rockets, and Blazers would not at all surprise me. It's going to be a very wild finish.

I might post another of these on Monday after we get through a very heavy 3 days of games, including 4 key games on Sunday. I don't know what else I'll do with myself with no NBA action that night...

 

Thanks for all the kind words. If I had to put money on it today, I would bet that we met Portland. I think BigBigRed's latest numbers back that up.

But I just feel like the Rockets are going to be clutch down the stretch. I really didn't think we'd have as much drama as last year's finish. Unlike last year, we have no shot at the #1 seed, but this race is just as compelling.