Scribo, Thanks for this thread - I always enjoy reading your posts that recap the day in the NBA, especially on how it is pertinent to the Rockets. You are truly one of the most gifted posters I have read here because your writing style is so easy to follow plus you give so much valuable information. This is the reason why people come to this website - to read stuff like you are posting in this thread. If I didn't know better, I would think that you are John Hollinger of ESPN posting here but I know you are not because you are a better writer than he is. Keep up the great work.
I've been lurking for a little while here and wanted to contribute, so I wrote a simulator for the rest of the season of the NBA. I wanted to post my own thread, but apparently, I don't have permission. I figured that this was the most appropriate place to put information. Anyhow, the simulator runs through 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season and uses (my understanding of) the NBA tie breakers for positioning and home court advantage. The probability of winning any individual game is based on the relative strengths of the teams playing and who has home court. Note that there is some variability from run to run so I expect some changes after tonight's results even though not many Western contenders are playing. Below are the results for the Rockets (of course, I have them for other teams too). I've tested the simulator and rules lightly so there may be some bugs still, but the results do look reasonable. Please feel free to comment or request additional information. Number of Wins Code: Wins Percent ==== ======= 48 0.1 49 1.1 50 5.9 51 16.3 52 27.7 53 27.4 54 16.0 55 4.9 56 0.6 Place in West Code: Place Percent ===== ======= 2 15.1 3 15.0 4 31.0 5 19.9 6 12.8 7 5.7 8 0.5 Home Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Mavericks 3.0 Nuggets 5.9 Hornets 15.3 Suns 0.0 Blazers 17.0 Spurs 2.7 Jazz 16.1 Away Matchups Code: Team Percent ==== ======= Mavericks 0.1 Nuggets 8.5 Lakers 0.5 Hornets 4.3 Blazers 10.8 Spurs 9.4 Jazz 6.2 Percent of Home Court Advantage = 60.1 Last update: Mar 29
Good stuff, man. I started a thread for you so you have a dedicated place to keep it updated. It'll get lost in this thread.
SportsCenter just showed the Western Conference standings and they had Houston in the #3 seed with Denver at #4.
I'm guessing it is still mathematically possible for the Suns to knock the Rockets out of the playoff picture if: -Rockets lose all their remaining games (48-34) -Suns win all their remaining games (48-34) -Another team to finish at 48-34 -Suns wins the 3 way tiebreak I'm not holding my breath.
Actually there isn't any possibility due to our pretty stellar record against the rest of the field, and Phoenix's poor record against those teams. I've played around with all the combinations, and we are definitely 100% in the Playoffs.
Utah just moved up to 5th place with their win over the Knicks tonight. But if Utah continues being Utah (0 road wins against winning teams), they'll go 1-5 in their next 6 and be eclipsed by Portland, New Orleans, and maybe even Dallas.
<B> Games H2H Div Con Overall Magic </B> <B> Team W/L L10 H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TieBreak Number Diff</B> 1 Lakers 58-15 8-2 0-3 1A L 38-7 L No*<B> 20</B> 2 Spurs 48-25 5-5 2-2 None T 9-6 L 31-14 T No<B> 10</B> 3 Nuggets 48-26 8-2 3-1 None W 30-15 W Yes*<B> 8</B> 4 Rockets 48-26 7-3 8-6 31-14 5 Jazz 46-27 6-4 2-2 None T 31-12 L No<B> 8</B> 6 Blazers 46-27 6-4 1-1 1H T 24-19 W Yes<B> 8</B> 7 Hornets 45-27 6-4 2-1 1H W 8-4 L 27-16 W Yes<B> 8</B> 8 Mavericks 43-30 5-5 2-1 1A W 5-7 W 23-21 W Yes<B> 5</B> 9 Suns 40-34 6-4 2-0 1A W 24-20 W Yes*<B> Eclipsed</B> * Indicates the Tie Break is final <B>Clinched the #8 seed</B> Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>March 30</B>. It was a light night of action with only 1 game of interest being played. That’s quite a difference after yesterday’s incredibly noteworthy games. The Jazz are pretty hard to beat at home, and they had the added benefit of playing the Knicks. Predictably the Jazz built a 24 point lead and looked to be in cruise control for their 15th straight home win. However, for the second game in a row, the Jazz coughed up a huge lead and had to scramble late to pull out what should have been a routine win. That uneven play might come back to bite them, especially since the terrible road-faring Jazz draw 5 of their next 6 games on the road against winning teams. Tonight at least the Jazz rest at the #5 spot, but I think they’ll be tumbling down a few places over the next few games. Deron Williams notched 24 points and 13 assists, and Carlos Boozer added 21 points and 11 boards for the Jazz. David Lee had 21 points and 10 rebounds, and Al Harrington had 24 points but 8 turnovers for the Knicks. The Magic Number Chart remains unchanged for the night. The Rockets have 1 more day of Spring Break before they resume a normal schedule in Phoenix, but the rest of the Playoff field is in action tomorrow night. The Jazz at Blazers game is huge for the Northwest division and will be followed later in the week by Jazz at Nuggets. Although the schedule and tie breaks still favor the Nuggets to win the division, we could get a really good idea how likely an upset is by the end of the week. On tap for Tuesday: Lakers at Bobcats, Mavs at Wolves, Thieves at Spurs, Knicks at Nuggets, Jazz at Blazers, Hornets at Kings
To add on, as I posted in the "Jazz tracking" thread: Here's their next 6 games and my expected outcome: @POR L @DEN L MIN W @NO L @DAL L @SA L And then they finish up with GS W LAC W @LAL W I say they win the Lakers game because I expect the Lakers to be resting most of their starters. So that would give them a record of 50-32. Portland would only have to go 5-4 to finish ahead of them. They've got 2 games vs. OKC and 1 each against the Clippers and Memphis. Add Utah at home and that should be 5 wins right there. New Orleans would have to go 6-4 to pass Utah. They've got Golden State, Sacramento, the Clippers and Utah at home that they'll probably win. The remaining 2 wins probably have to come from Phoenix, Dallas (2 games), and @Miami). Dallas would have to go 8-1 to pass Utah. It's possible. Their toughest games are a home and away vs. New Orleans. But here's the thing, they play the Rockets in the last game of the season. If the Rockets have already cemented their playoff position and Utah is 50-32 and Dallas is 50-31, then the Rockets can throw the last game to push Utah down to the 8th spot and make them play the Lakers in the first round. That would be sweet!
The only problem Cannonball is that Dallas would lose the tie break with the Jazz. The best the Mavs can hope for is a 2-2 split in the head-to-head, which would then throw it to Conference Record have an 8.5 game lead. EDIT: Nevermind, I misread the last bit. That would indeed be sweet to see happen, but I'm not too optimistic that Dallas can go 8-1 after their last few games.
They've got a relatively easy schedule compared the rest of the teams. They're also pretty good at home and only have 3 road games left (MIN, MEM, NO). They're home losses have come against Houston, Cleveland, Lakers, Orlando, San Antonio, Denver (twice), New Orleans, and Boston. All very good playoff teams. Judging by that, they shouldn't lose any of the home games except may the New Orleans one. Utah would be a threat if they didn't suck so bad on the road. They've got Minnesota twice, Memphis once. Plus home games against Phoenix, Utah, and Miami(pretty bad on the road). The Mavs should be favored in all of those games. That just leaves 2 games against New Orleans and the season finale vs. Houston. If they can win the games they're supposed to and split with New Orleans then it could very well lead to the Rockets controlling the fate of the Jazz. But you're probably right. The Mavs aren't very consistent and have March losses to Golden State and Oklahoma City. They'll probably drop a game they should win. Maybe they get tripped up against Minny or Memphis on the road or lose to Phoenix or Miami at home. But they did have a 9-1 stretch earlier this season so it can be done.
I haven't been following this thread as closely as others but I have noticed now twice that Scribo has referred to the Thunder as "The Thieves". Scribo or anyone else - what is the story behind that nickname?
Scribo answered that question many pages back, so it's buried at this point. But DD is correct, it's for the team having been stolen from Seattle.
Has anyone else noticed the strange schedule the Rockets have had this season? Up until this nice break they've had, the Rockets had played more games than anyone. There was one point of the season where they had played 6 games more than the Hornets. I guess it worked out well since we get the nice break going into the final stretch while every one else is piling on the games to finish the season.
Because Denver has the tiebreaker on us since they won their division and we didn't win ours. Thats a new rule apparently.
I live in Seattle and am not too happy with the way the team left. I talked about it in Post 183 when the Thieves got eliminated from the Playoffs.
And Scribo is in Seattle so it hits particularly close. He also calls the Nuggets "Enver" and the Warriors "GolXen State" because they play no D.
