Since has that been a problem here Seriously though, I agree there's probably going to be a least one more loss in there somewhere, but don't know where. @Phoenix, Orlando and @Golden State most risky IMO.
It’s time for another Friday look at the State of the Western Conference Playoff Race. I’m using Magic Numbers from 3/26 in this post. Sorry for the late post, but I had to run a busy past few days running quarterly billing for work. <B>Rockets</B>: Clippers, @Suns, @Lakers, Blazers, Magic, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets, @Mavs <B>Last Week: 2-1</B> @ROCKETS 107, Wolves 88 ROCKETS 87, @Spurs 85 @Jazz 99, ROCKETS 86 Considering that a week ago we just found out Carl Landry was shot, I’m considering the past week to be pretty incredible. Yes, we lost to the freaking Jazz, and that irks me personally, but we manhandled the Wolves and got an amazing clutch victory in San Antonio. We’ve been at least the #3 seed for almost 3 weeks and even had the division lead for a few days. It would have been nice to pick up the tie break on the Jazz and just about close them out, but more importantly we still have a chance at the tie break with the Spurs and the Southwest division title. And now the Rockets get a welcome break with only 1 game between now and next Saturday. The Rockets have 6 Contender (3H, 3A) and 3 Probable (1H, 2A) games left on their schedule. I’m pretty confident that we’ll take all 3 Probables, which would drop all Magic Numbers 3. We’ve beaten some quality teams at home and on the road lately, and I like this teams chances. I feel really good about the Blazers, Magic, and Hornets games which are all in Houston. The road games have me a bit concerned, particularly the Lakers game. I’m hoping that some rest will have our team recharged for the stretch run and hopefully allow Landry to return. I’ll go with a conservative 3-3 against this group, although I think we’ll pick up one more. That has us at 6-3 down the stretch to finish 53-29 and the #3 seed. <B> Top Eight West Contenders</B> <B>Suns</B>: @Jazz, @Kings, Rockets, Kings, @Mavs, @Hornets, @Grizz, @Wolves, Grizz, Warriors <B>Last Week: 3-1</B> @SUNS 128, Wizards 96 SUNS 118, @Nuggets 115 SUNS 118, @Jazz 114 @Blazers 129, SUNS 109 Has Phoenix risen from the ashes? No. They won 6 in a row, but that loss in Portland likely dashes any faint hopes they had for the Playoffs. Forget Dallas, Phoenix is chasing Utah. If they can somehow go 8-1 down the stretch with a victory in Utah (which would give them the tie break over Utah), they have a shot. However, I consider victory in Utah pretty unlikely. The Jazz had 2 days off to get ready for a rematch with the Suns, while Phoenix had to stop in Portland before facing a well-rested squad in Utah. They still have 6 games to go in their 9 Games of Mostly Doom stretch, but they are 2-1 so far. With our 3 Probable wins, we close the Suns out. If we beat them in Phoenix on April 1, we drop their Magic Number 2. We own the tie break over the Suns. Phoenix has 4 Contender (1H, 3A) and 6 Probable (3H, 3A) games left on their schedule. With they way they’ve been scoring, I expect them to take all of their remaining Probables. Lesser teams just seem to wilt when they run with the Suns. I see them going 1-3 against their Contenders to close with a 7-3 run to finish 47-35. Not a bad record (our record for Title Run #2), but that’s not good enough to qualify this year. Likelihood: Damn Near Certain Magic Number: 3 (-3) Magic Number over Rockets: 17 (-4) Magic Number over Mavericks: 15 (-3) Magic Number over Blazers: 16 (-4) Magic Number over Jazz: 16 (-4) Magic Number over Hornets: 17 (-4) Projected Record: 47-35 Projected Seed: #9 <B>Mavericks</B>: Nuggets, @Cavs, @Wolves, Heat, @Grizz, Suns, Jazz, Hornets, @Hornets, Wolves, Rockets <B>Last Week: 2-0</B> MAVS 94, @Pacers 92 @MAVS 128, Warriors 106 The Mavs had a light week of action with only 2 games. They won a tight game in Indiana and had to feel good about whipping up on Nellie and crew when they came to Dallas. The good news: Dallas is well rested, have won 9 straight at home, and have 7 of their last 11 in Dallas. The bad news: they predominantly play against Contenders down the stretch. Still Dallas is in decent shape to move up the ladder and avoid the Lakers in the first round. With our 3 Probable victories, we knock the Mavs out with a combination of 5 Mav losses and Rocket Contender victories. If we beat the Mavs on the last game of the season, we drop their Magic Number by 3. If the Mavs win the last game in Dallas, we should have a better division record (we’re 8-6, they’re 5-7) and take the tie break anyways, reducing their Magic Number by 1. Dallas has 8 Contender (6H, 2A) and 3 Probable (1H, 2A) games left on their schedule. They should get all 3 Probables, which includes a divisional game over the Grizz. The Contender games are intriguing. That 9 game home winning streak sounds nice, but it was mainly built against scrub teams with the notable exception of a solid victory over the Spurs. The Hornets are on the verge of implosion, but they seem to have the Mavs number. Dallas still has 2 games left against New Orleans. I think a 4-4 finish is likely. That has them closing on a 7-4 run to wind up 50-32. Even if we lose the tie break, we’d need just 1 Contender victory to close the Mavs out. If we win in Dallas OR lose that game and wind up with a better division record, we officially closes them out. Likelihood: Most Excellent Magic Number: 8 (-2) Magic Number over Rockets: 14 (-3) Magic Number over Spurs: 16 (-4) Magic Number over Hornets: 14 (-3) Magic Number over Suns: 8 (-3) Magic Number over Blazers: 12 (-3) Magic Number over Jazz: 13 (-3) Projected Record: 50-32 Projected Seed: #8 <B>Jazz</B>: Suns, Knicks, @Blazers, Wolves, @Nuggets, @Hornets, @Mavs, @Spurs, Warriors, Clippers, @Lakers <B>Last Week: 2-1</B> JAZZ 101, @Thieves 94 @JAZZ 99, Rockets 86 Suns 118, @JAZZ 114 We all know what the Jazz are at this point: <STRIKE>bastards</STRIKE> a dangerous team at home that can beat bad teams pretty consistently but had also lost 14 straight on the road to winning teams. It wasn’t much of a surprise to see them whip up on the Thieves or as much as I hate to say it, take the game against the Rockets. They gave the Suns a tough game, but predictably lost against a tough competitor on the road. That road record bodes ominously for them as they face 6 winning teams on the road in the closing weeks. With our 3 Probable victories, we knock the Jazz out with a combination of 6 Jazz losses and Rocket Contender victories. Utah has 7 Contender (1H, 6A) and 4 Probable (4H, 0A) games left on their schedule. They get all their Probables in Utah, and it’s almost certain that they’ll sweep that bunch. Their lone Contender home game is against a weary Suns team, while the Jazz had 2 days to rest up and prepare after losing to the Suns. That game probably goes to Utah, but the 6 road games is pretty bleak for the Jazz. I can’t see them winning more than 1 of those games and maybe dropping all of them. I’ll say they go 2-5 against Contenders to finish with a mediocre 6-5 close and a final record of 50-32. That means the Rockets likely need just a single Contender victory down the stretch, which I consider a near certainty. The Jazz are 2-1 on the Mavs with a much better conference record, so they have the tie break on the Mavs. They own the tie break against the Hornets and are in the driver’s seat for the tie breaks against Enver and Portland. Likelihood: Excellent Magic Number: 9 (-3) Magic Number over Rockets: 13 (-3) Magic Number over Blazers: 12 (-3) Magic Number over Nuggets: 13 (-3) Magic Number over Hornets: 12 (-3) Magic Number over Mavs: 11 (-2) Magic Number over Suns: 7 (-3) Projected Record: 50-32 Projected Seed: #7 <B>Blazers</B>: Grizz, Jazz, @Thieves, @Rockets, @Grizz, @Spurs, Lakers, @Clippers, Thieves, Nuggets <B>Last Week: 2-1</B> BLAZERS 96, @Bucks 84 76ers 114, @BLAZERS 108 @BLAZERS 129, Suns 109 It was a good week for the Blazers. They got a solid victory in Milwaukee, lost to a hot 76ers team, and destroyed a Phoenix team that had to win to keep its Playoff hopes alive. Still they tend to let a number of game stays close until Brandon Roy take over. On the other hand, Roy continues to be a clutch player in the 4th and Greg Oden is back to add more depth to a pretty good young team. They’re only a game back from Enver with a game against the Nuggets on the last day of the season in Portland. Even with a Portland win, the Nuggets likely will take the tie break, which means the Blazers need to make up 2 games. I just don’t see that happening with the schedule that Enver has. With our 3 Probable victories, we knock the Blazers out with a combination of 6 Blazer losses and Rocket Contender victories. If we beat the Blazers in Houston on April 5, we take the tie break and knock their Magic Number down 3. If we lose that game, the Blazers clinch the tie break over the Rockets. Portland has 5 Contender (3H, 2A) and 5 Probable (2H, 3A) games left on their schedule. The Blazers let too many bad teams hang around to make me think they’ll sweep their Probables. They’ll drop 1 with careless play to finish 4-1. I think they’ll take the divisional games against Utah and Enver, but lose the other games against the Lakers and on the road against the Rocket and Spurs. That has them finishing 6-4 and a record of 51-31. If we take the game in Houston, we’d close them out, but if we lose we’d need 2 more Contender victories. The Hornets and Blazers split the season series, but New Orleans has a 3 game lead in the Conference Record. Likelihood: Very Good (Damn Near Certain if we win April 5, Good if we lose) Magic Number: 9 (-3) Magic Number over Rockets: 12 (-3) Magic Number over Nuggets: 12 (-3) Magic Number over Jazz: 11 (-3) Magic Number over Hornets: 12 (-3) Magic Number over Mavs: 10 (-2) Magic Number over Suns: 6 (-3) Projected Record: 52-30 Projected Seed: #6 <B>Hornets</B>: @Knicks, Spurs, @Kings, @Clippers, @Warriors, Jazz, @Heat, Suns, @Mavs, Mavs, @Rockets, Spurs <B>Last Week: 2-1</B> @HORNETS 96, Grizz 84 @HORNETS 99, Warriors 89 Nuggets 101, @HORNETS 88 The Hornets are very close to melting down. They were in a funk when they traded away Tyson Chandler, got on a hot roll when the trade was rescinded, and have looked mediocre since that initial streak cooled down. They had unimpressive victories over the Grizz and Warriors then got blown out by the Nuggets this week. They had an easy schedule that they needed to feast upon before they hit the closing weeks where it gets much more difficult. Instead of taking the division lead or staking out home court, the Hornets find themselves in the number 5 spot, only 1.5 games up on Dallas. Peja doesn’t seem like he’s coming back, and Tyson Chandler has missed games. This does not bode well for them. With our 3 Probable victories, we knock the Hornets out with a combination of 7 Hornet losses and Rocket Contender victories. The Rockets lead the season series 2-1. If we win in Houston on April 13, we take the tie break and drop the Hornets 3. If we lose, we would very likely lose the tie break because of our division record. As a bonus, we draw the Hornets on the second night of a back-to-back they have with us and Dallas. New Orleans has 8 Contender (5H, 3A) and 4 Probable (0H, 4A) games left on their schedule. This team’s uninspired play has seen them drop a few road games to Probables. They only have 4 of those left, but all of them are on the road. They’ll drop 1 to finish 3-1 against this group. The 8 games against Contenders does not favor them in spite of 5 being at home. I see the Hornets going 4-4 against this bunch to finish on a 7-5 run and a 51-31 record. If we take that game from the Hornets, we close them out. If we lose we’d need 2 more victories. Likelihood: Excellent (Damn Near Certain if we win April 13, Good if we lose) Magic Number: 10 (-3) Magic Number over Rockets: 13 (-3) Magic Number over Spurs: 15 (-4) Magic Number over Mavs: 11 (-2) Magic Number over Jazz: 12 (-3) Magic Number over Nuggets: 13 (-3) Magic Number over Blazers: 12 (-3) Magic Number over Suns: 7 (-3) Projected Record: 51-31 Projected Seed: #5 <B>Nuggets</B>: @Mavs, Warriors, Knicks, Jazz, Clippers, @Wolves, Thieves, @Lakers, Kings, @Blazers <B>Last Week: 2-1</B> @NUGGETS 116, Wizards 105 Suns 118, @NUGGETS 115 NUGGETS 101, @Hornets 88 All right, I’ll admit it. I now think the Nuggets will win their division. They completed a 5 game winning streak against scrub teams, barely lost to a hot Suns team, and then took care of a shaky Hornets team on the road. I thought they’d go 3-4 on that stretch, but they surprised me with a strong 6-1 record. With their closing schedule, they are almost certain to beat out Utah. The Blazers could surprise Enver if they get hot, but I don’t think that scenario is likely. Not only do they win the division, but I think the Nuggets likely have home court in the first round. With our 3 Probable victories, we knock the Nuggets out with a combination of 6 Nugget losses and Rocket Contender victories. The Rockets own the tie break over the Nuggets after taking the season series 3-1. Enver has 4 Contenders (1H, 3A) and 6 Probable (5H, 1A) games left on their schedule. As much as I think they’ll drop a Probable, the Nuggets have won 5 straight against scrub teams so I’ll take them winning all 6 of the remaining Probables especially with 5 at home. I don’t think they’ll fare well against the Contenders with 3 on the road. I’ll pick them to go 1-3, which has them closing 7-3 to finish up 53-29. That means we need 3 Contender victories of our own to close them out. I think we’ll get that done. Likelihood: Dicey but Good Magic Number: 9 (-3) Magic Number over Rockets: 11 (-3) Magic Number over Blazers: 10 (-3) Magic Number over Jazz: 10 (-3) Magic Number over Hornets: 11 (-3) Magic Number over Mavs: 8 (-2) Magic Number over Suns: 5 (-3) Projected Record: 53-29 Projected Seed: #4 <B>Spurs</B>: Clippers, @Hornets, Thieves, @Pacers, @Cavs, @Thieves, Blazers, Jazz, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets <B>Last Week: 2-2</B> Celtics 80, @SPURS 77 Rockets 87, @SPURS 85 @SPURS 107, Warriors 106 SPURS 102, @Hawks 92 The Spurs started the week off pretty shakily, dropping 2 straight to the Celtics and Rockets. They needed a few last second plays to eek out a victory over the Warriors, but then they traveled to Atlanta and beat a hot Hawks team without Duncan. Manu is back as the Spurs try to finetune their team for the Playoffs. The Spurs have 11 games left, which is a brisk pace for an older squad trying to stay healthy. The Rockets gave themselves a chance to win the division, but that’s looking more problematic as the Spurs grind out victories. We really need them to lose in New Orleans on Sunday to give us a fighting chance for the division title. With our 3 Probable victories, we knock the Spurs out with a combination of 9 Spur losses and Rocket Contender victories. If we take the tie break that drops to 8. I covered all the tie break scenarios with the Spurs last Sunday in this post. I’ll post an update after Sunday’s Spurs at Hornets game. San Antonio has 5 Contender (3H, 2A) and 6 Probable (2H, 4A) games left on their schedule. Even if they’re struggling the Spurs usually win against bad teams. However, I think they’ll lose 1 of their Probables as Popovich reintegrates Ginobili into the lineup. So I’ll score them 5-1 against the Probables. They usually rest Duncan on the second game of back-to-backs which bodes well for the @Thieves-Blazers combo. I also think they’re in trouble in Cleveland. Can the Hornets take at least 1 from the Spurs or can the Jazz get an upset on the road? I think so. I’ll call a 2-3 record against Contenders to finish 7-4 and 54-28 overall. If we win the tie break, we would need 4 Contender victories, but if we lose it, we’d need 5. That’s still doable, but it’s going to be a steep hurdle to overcome to win the Southwest. Likelihood: Very Difficult (Difficult if we get the tie break, Extremely Difficult if we lose it) Magic Number: 12 (-4) Magic Number over Rockets: 10 (-2) Magic Number over Mavs: 8 (-2) Magic Number over Hornets: 10 (-3) Magic Number over Suns: 3 (-3) Projected Record: 54-28 Projected Seed: #2 <B>Lakers</B>: @Nets, @Hawks, @Bobcats, @Bucks, Rockets, Clippers, @Kings, Nuggets, @Blazers, Grizz, Jazz <B>Last Week: 3-0</B> LAKERS 117, @Bulls 109 LAKERS 107, @Thieves 89 LAKERS 92, @Pistons 77 The Lakers need only 1 more victory or Spur loss to clinch the #1 seed. At this point, they’re trying to be sharp for the Playoffs while they battle Cleveland for the top record in the league. They’re on a 7 game raod trip, and despite some lackluster play, they’re 3-0 so far on the trip. Upon returning from their road trip, they have just 1 day off before hosting the Rockets. I hope we get finagle some advantage out of that and steal one on the road. That would really boost our chances for home court and the Southwest division. LA has 5 Contender (3H, 2A) and 6 Probable (2H, 4A) games left on their schedule. I think they’re going to steamroll teams as they fight for home court throughout the Playoffs. I think they’ll drop 2 but no more than that to finish 66-16. Likelihood: Not This Year Magic Number: 22 (-2) Magic Number over Spurs: 1 (-5) Projected Record: 66-16 Projected Seed: #1 <B>Projected Matchups</B>: #1 Lakers hosting #8 Mavs #2 Spurs hosting #7 Jazz #3 Rockets hosting #6 Blazers #4 Nuggets hosting #5 Hornets I would love to draw Portland with home court. In addition to being one of the better matchups, my wife and I are definitely taking a babymoon trip to Portland to bring some Rowdiness to the Rose Garden. <B>This Week’s Key Head to Head Matchups</B>: Friday: Nuggets at Mavericks Saturday: Suns at Jazz Sunday: Spurs at Hornets Tuesday: Jazz at Blazers Wednesday: Rockets at Suns Thursday: Jazz at Nuggets
I'd rather have the Mavs finish 7th in your scenario, Scribo. That way, we'd get the Jazz out of the lower bracket. Did you figure in a Rockets loss when you came up with the 50-32 record for the Mavs?!? Might behoove us to rest our starters for the playoffs if it meant making the Jazz the 8th seed!
I hear you. I'd love for the Jazz to be #8 and get eliminated by the Lakers. Hell, I'd love for them to miss the Playoffs entirely. I just see really see them at #7. I didn't really call it either way. I generally look at a spread of games and determine a win total, but if I had to pick, I'll take the Rockets over the Mavs.
<B> Games H2H Div Con Overall Magic </B> <B> Team W/L L10 H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TieBreak Number Diff</B> 1 Lakers 58-14 8-2 0-3 1A L 38-7 L No*<B> 22</B> 2 Spurs 48-24 6-4 2-2 None T 9-5 L 31-13 L No<B> 12</B> 3 Rockets 47-26 7-3 8-6 30-14 4 Nuggets 47-26 7-3 3-1 None W 29-15 W Yes*<B> 9</B> 5 Blazers 45-27 6-4 1-1 1H T 23-19 W Yes<B> 9</B> 6 Jazz 44-27 6-4 2-2 None T 30-12 L No<B> 9</B> 7 Hornets 44-27 5-5 2-1 1H W 7-4 L 26-16 W Yes<B> 9</B> (-1) 8 Mavericks 43-29 6-4 2-1 1A W 5-7 W 23-21 W Yes<B> 7</B> (-1) 9 Suns 40-32 6-4 2-0 1A W 24-18 W Yes*<B> 3</B> * Indicates the Tie Break is final For more information on the Magic Number Chart or about seeding or tie break rules, read the FAQ <B>Clinched the #9 seed</B> Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>March 27</B>. The Rockets had another night off, but 5 of their competitors were in action. Dallas has been red hot at home, but were without Jason Kidd (lower back) and Josh Howard (severe case of munchies). The Nuggets have been hot as well, winning 6 of their last 7. The Nuggets led most of the game, but the Mavs stormed back to take a brief lead in the closing minutes. At that point, it became the Carmelo show as the Nuggets outperformed the Mavs in a close win. The loss snaps a 9 game home winning streak for Dallas and keeps them from moving within a ½ game of Utah and New Orleans. Carmelo had 43 points and 11 rebounds, and J.R. Smith had 22 points for Enver, who swept the season series 4-0 over Dallas. Dirk had 26 points and 11 rebounds, but shot just 7-23. Little Juan chipped in with 22 points for the Mavs, who lose a Magic Number and are just 3 games up on Phoenix for the #8 spot. A sputtering Hornets team went to New York to face a Knicks team on a 6 game losing streak. Once again the Hornets displayed a lackluster effort and got blown out in the third quarter 35-16. The wheels completely fell off in the fourth with technicals and an ejection before the Knicks scored the upset. Tyson Chandler was out again and is expected to miss 1-2 more weeks, which doesn’t bode well for New Orleans who is about to have their schedule get a lot tougher. Al Harrington had 23 points and 8 rebounds, and David Lee had 18 points and 11 rebounds for the Knicks. Chris Paul had 22 points, 10 assists, and a technical. David West added 29 points and 7 rebounds, and James Posey added 7 points and en ejection for the Hornets. New Orelans loses a Magic Number and are down to the #7 spot. I’m hoping they respond to this ass kicking with an inspired effort Sunday against the visiting Spurs. Speaking of the Spurs, they had all of their Big 3 in the lineup tonight for the first time since the All-Star break. That alone is pretty scary. It was even scarier that they were facing a Clippers team despondent over their loss in the NIT. The Spurs hit the Clippers hard and were playing their scrubs by the fourth quarter as they blew out LA. Manu had 14 points on 5-7 shooting and 7 assists, and Tony Parker had 18 points and 6 assists for the Spurs who stay 2 up in the loss column over the Rockets. Mike Taylor had 23 points for the hapless Clippers. The Lakers continued their road show with an uneven performance in New Jersey. Kobe sprained his ankle, but the Spanish Acquisition came up big for the Lakers as they win their 4th straight on the road. Pau Gasol finished with 36 points and 11 rebounds, and Derek Fisher had 18 points and 4 assists for the Lakers, who clinch the #1 seed in the West and stay a game behind Cleveland. Vince Carter had 20 points and 7 rebounds, and Devin Harris added 13 points and 14 assists for the Nets. The Rockets return to action Saturday when they host the Clippers. No excuses for this game. The Clippers are on the second night of a back-to-back after getting demolished by the Spurs and have been playing atrociously. The Rockets have had 3 days to get ready for this game. They’re playing at home and should easily handle the Clippers. Also on tap for Saturday: Warriors at Nuggets, Suns at Jazz, Grizz at Blazers
Thanks, Scribo. This is the thread I look most forward to reading each day during the playoff run. I appreciate your effort. I just don't like how, somehow, we keeping matching up with Utah every other night. Please God. No Utah!
So, I noticed that ESPN.com and NBA.com now list the Nuggets 3rd and the Rockets 4th after the Denver win tonight which gave them the same record as the Rockets. At first I couldn't understand why. I thought, shouldn't the first tiebreaker be head to head? The answer is no. http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html TIEBREAKER BASIS: (-) Tie breaker not needed (better overall winning percentage) (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division (2) Head-to-head won-lost percentage (3) Division won-lost percentage (4) Conference won-lost percentage (5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference (6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference (7) Net Points, all games Even though we hold the tiebreakers for head to head and conference record, Denver leads their division and we do not. Therefore, Denver is currently #3 and we're #4. I could be wrong, but I don't remember this being the case last year.
If you read a bit further down in that link, it talks about how to rank seed 1-4 and 5-8. We are the #3 seed according to those rules. I really think this is just a case of the automated standing being wrong. I've seen it before when there are multiple team tie breaks. I had to manually override my system to put the Rockets #3 (where they should be) because it uses the ESPN standing as a basis.
But where else would this "Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division" tiebreak come in? It could only occur in the top 4 seeds because division winners are automatically in the top 4. But somehow it's mentioned in the part marked "tiebreaker basis" but not under the "two teams tied" part. I don't understand why this tiebreak would be the first one in one section and completely omitted from the other. Maybe it's a new rule (I don't remember it before) and they just altered one section of that page and not the other after they copied and pasted it from last year. I dunno. But I do notice now that it says "division leader" and not "division winner". Maybe it's only used to calculate standings before a team has clinched the division and that when the final standings are calculated they don't use it. But that doesn't make much sense either. If this "division leader" tiebreak doesn't affect a tie between a division leader/winner and a non-division leader/winner, then I'm curious as to why it's even there.
Agree that this doesn't make sense. Right now it's showing the same criteria for Utah, which has the same record as New Orleans. Neither is a division leader, so I'd say they're both typos and should be ignored. I'm sure the procedure listed below that is what really matters. At the end of the day, the standings have no real significance until the regular season is complete anyway. One thing that isn't clear to me in the procedure is what the word 'eligible for playoffs' means. Before tie-breakers are applied there could be more than 8 teams 'eiligible' for the playoffs in each conference, and depending which teams you apply the tie-break to 1st, the teams you consider 'eligible' could change the outcome of the tie-break.
Thanks for the explanation/analysis of this guys. I noticed this last night after the Mavs game and had a brief discussion on another thread about it. I assumed NBA.com had us in 4th because Denver was the division leader, but I didn't really understand how that worked out. I have to say, though, I'm really glad our season series with the Nuggets and the Spurs are over, since we are all neck and neck with so few games left . .
Seed 1 - 3 goes to division leaders/winners so we would have to win the division to get a #3 or better. If the Spurs stay on top we will be slotted in #4 thru 8 depending on how we end up record wise.
That is wrong. This was changed after the 2006 season when the Mavs were the #4 seed despite having the second best record. Teams were openly tanking to draw the #3 Nuggets with home court advantage, which is how the Clippers got to the second round. A division winner gets a top 4 seed, and that is all. In each of the past 2 seasons, the Spurs were #3 despite not winning their division (Mavs in 2006, Hornets in 2007) while Utah was #4 with a division title. We had the fourth best record each year, but fell to #5 because we were only third best in our division. However, we had a better record than the #4 Jazz and had home court. I'm not sure why the NBA has that division winner tie break provision when the Playoff rules state different criteria. My guess it's because the league doesn't want to break down all the tie breaks each night as games across different time zones finish.
No, no, I was responding to the previous post that stated that division winners were automatically slotted into the 1-3 playoff seeds.
I think the (1) that they show in the far right hand column refers to Scribo's criteria. They put the (1) to tell you which team won the tiebreak and why. In the case of Utah/New Orleans, the number is in Utah's row showing that they won the tiebreak and the (1) tells you that it's because of the head to head tiebreaker. If you apply that logic to Houston/Denver, it would suggest that Houston also won the tiebreak because of head to head because the (1) is in Houston's row and not Denver's. This is where those particular standings are confusing. That far right column is essentially telling you that Houston won the tiebreak yet they still put Denver ahead. Anyway, I'm enjoying this. So much of last years thread was figuring out exactly how the tiebreakers worked and and how a 4 or 5 team tie would break down. I think Scribo and I were both mistaken on a few points until the final week or so. That kind of discussion has largely been absent so far this year. I'm looking forward to the final week when we can really start getting into all the possible scenarios and how it affects seeding.
Agreed. One of my favorite parts of last season's Magic Number Thread was all the tie break discussions. It's looking like we won't get anything too crazy this year. For a while, I thought we'd have a 3 or 4 team tie break, but I think all we'll get are a few pairs of 2 team tie breaks. Last year we were wrong on the multiple team tie break, which included a division winner across the 4-5 seeds. In particular last year, there was a likelihood of a 4 team tie break with Utah, SA, Houston, and Phoenix. We did learn quite a bit from all of that discussion. I'm pretty damn confident that there is an order of operations for the seeding as follows: 1) Seed the teams 1-8 by record. If 2 teams are tied, apply 2 team tie break rules. If 3 or more teams are tied, apply multiple team tie break rules. 2) Determine the 3 division winners. If 2 teams are tied for the division lead, use the 2 team tie break rules to determine the winner. If 3 or more teams are tied, use the multiple team tie break rules to determine the winner. 3) Are all 3 division winners in the top 4? If the answer is yes, the seedings are complete. If the answer is no, take the division winner not in the top 4 and bump them up to #4. Then move all teams that were originally #4 through where the division winner sat, and bump them down 1 spot. 4) Award home court in each round to the team with the best record. If the teams are tie, use 2 team tie break rules to decide the winner. That accounts for the seedings the past few years as well as what we were hearing about last year's 4 team tie break scenario. By these rules, the Rockets are #3. I really don't know why that "Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division" line is included when the Playoff rules do not have that criterion. I still think this is a regular season standing, but the Playoff seedings will be different. It's kind of dumb for the NBA to use different standards for the regular season and playoffs. This will definitely be hashed out to death in major columns if the Rockets and Nuggets are tied in the last week.
