Your post made me want to calculate for the remaining schedule the average winning percentage of our opponents. As an added bonus, I computed the same for all the teams that are Western conference playoffs contenders. This would give a true indication of the toughness of the remaining schedules. Here is what I found: #Gr = # of games remaining #Gh = # of home games remaining #Ga = # of away games remaining #b2b = # of back-to-back game sequences remaining Code: [B]Team[/B] [B]Mean ± Stdev [/B] [B]#Gr[/B] [B]#Gh[/B] [B]#Ga[/B] [B]#b2b[/B] Houston Rockets 0.545 ± 0.203 10 4 6 1 Utah Jazz 0.537 ± 0.166 13 6 7 5 Dallas Mavericks 0.522 ± 0.184 12 8 4 2 New Orleans Hornets 0.517 ± 0.159 13 5 8 3 Portland Trailblazers 0.474 ± 0.213 11 6 5 2 San Antonio Spurs 0.467 ± 0.194 13 6 7 3 Denver Nuggets 0.460 ± 0.201 11 6 5 3 LA Lakers 0.454 ± 0.165 13 5 8 3 From this information, I would say that Utah has the toughest remaining schedule and not Houston. Utah has a similar rating but with a smaller spread and more back-to-backs. I would list Houston as the 2nd toughest remaining schedule in the West. EDIT: I forgot to mention that all numbers are valid as of today's standings.
nice i do agree with that the jazz do have the toughest schedule with more games in a smaller time frame and 5 sets of back to backs. it will be really interesting to see how this playoff picture will shape up in the coming weeks.
Funny enough I was just shopping in a SAMS in San Antonio and overheard a Spurs fan calling out Spurs. Spurs Spurs!! So I asked him how do you think they will do? He said they will do very well if they are healthy! So then I popped the question, "How about the Rockets", he was taken aback for the moment, but replied "It will be difficult for them to get out of the first round as they are turnover prone but they do play good defence". just what I expected in San Antonio!
Hey, Shane made 3 key plays in a row in the 4th quarter of last game that helped prevent a sure loss. 1. Hit a long three pointer to cut the lead from 6 to 3 2. dove after the ball to tie up Duncan on a loose ball that should have been easily controlled by the Spurs 3. Won a jump ball against Tim Duncan for a possession that got the Rockets within 1 Cut the guy some slack.
<B> Games H2H Div Con Overall Magic </B> <B> Team W/L L10 H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TieBreak Number Diff</B> 1 Lakers 56-14 8-2 0-3 1A L 38-7 L No*<B> 22</B> 2 Spurs 46-24 6-4 2-2 None T 9-5 L 30-13 L No<B> 12</B> 3 Rockets 47-26 7-3 8-6 30-14 4 Nuggets 45-26 6-4 3-1 None W 27-15 W Yes*<B> 9</B> 5 Hornets 44-25 7-3 2-1 1H W 7-4 L 26-15 W Yes<B> 11</B> 6 Jazz 44-26 7-3 2-2 None T 30-11 L No<B> 10</B> 7 Blazers 44-27 6-4 1-1 1H T 22-19 W Yes<B> 9</B> 8 Mavericks 42-28 6-4 2-1 1A W 5-7 W 22-20 W Yes<B> 8</B> 9 Suns 39-31 5-5 2-0 1A W 23-17 W Yes*<B> 4</B> * Indicates the Tie Break is final For more information on the Magic Number Chart or about seeding or tie break rules, read the FAQ <B>Clinched the #9 seed</B> Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>March 24</B>. It was a pretty all-around disappointing night for the Rockets. In addition to our loss, we got no help from our competitors. The Magic Number Chart remains unchanged. The Rockets faced a stern challenge going into Utah without Carl Landry. The defense was there, but the Rockets offense was ugly and inconsistent. The Rockets had their chances but couldn’t sustain any runs and lost yet again in Utah. The bad news first: we lost out on a chance to clinch the tie break over the Jazz, lost a conference game, fell to 12-11 against Playoff opponents, and gave up the division lead to the Spurs. On the good side, we’re still the #3 seed, the Jazz have a brutal schedule left, and we are still in solid shape for home court in the first round. The Rockets now have a week off (with a home game against the Clippers to break the monotony) to rest up and get healthy. Luckily there are also a bunch of Western Conference Playoff Contenders squaring off (including 2 games tomorrow), so Magic Numbers are guaranteed to drop. Hopefully they can work on their offense during the days off, and Carl Landry can return for the final stretch. The Spurs are old and have a very busy schedule coming up, so I was curious how they’d play against the visting helter-skelter Warriors. GolXen State played aggressively and had the lead late, but ultimately the Spurs are just too disciplined and the Warriors a bit too erratic. Roger Mason hit the game-winning jumper with 23.9 seconds left to help the Spurs avoid a 3 game losing streak (with a trip to Atlanta tomorrow). Tony Parker had 30 points and 10 assists, and Tim Duncan added 21 points and 10 rebounds for the Spurs, who regained control of the Southwest and the #2 seed. Monta Ellis had 27 points for the Warriors. The Lakers looked sloppy in the first game of their long road trip, but they took no chances when they played the Thieves. LA built a 62-38 halftime lead and cruised to victory. It was inevitable, but the Lakers officially closed out the Rockets tonight. Kobe had 19 points and 5 assists before sitting out the 4th. Kevin Durant had 24 in the loss for the Thieves. On tap for Wednesday: Spurs at Hawks, Nuggets at Hornets, Warriors at Mavs, Jazz at Suns
How did you come up with your SD? (keep in mind I am in my first Statistics class ever - so this may be a really easy question)
i may be a bit optimistic, but i think if we can make it 7-2 for the remaining 9 games, we can still be the #2 seed. the spurs are not in their best forms with manu not playing. they barely beat the gsw last night.
It good the rockets have some rest, let the other tams beat up on each other I have a feeling were going to get some help this week from other teams, I think tonight were going to be the 2nd seed again I think if we were fully (Landry) health last night we would have won.
Whatever happens, the last thing I want is a first round match-up against the Jazz. I think my head will roll.
I needed a good night of sleep to clear my mind of the disappointment of last night's loss and give me the opportunity to take things into perspective. When Landry went down, I immediately looked at the schedule and thought we were probably going to drop the Spurs AND the Jazz game. However, we took one, and if I had my choice, winning in SA trumps the Jazz win. We have 9 games left. 3 are against Probables, 3 are against Contenders on the road, and 3 are against Contenders in Houston. We'll take the 3 Probables. I feel good about the 3 home games against Contenders and think we get at least 2 and probably all 3. The question is how do we fare on the road against the Suns, Lakers, and Mavs. I think we match up well against the Suns and Mavs, and the Lakers will be playing their first game back at home after their long road trip. Can we take 2 of those games? I think we get at least 1 and hopefully 2. So we're looking at a 8-1 to a 6-3 range to finish out the season with a likely 7-2 finish if I had to call it right now. A 7-2 finish would just about guarantee us home court. Drop all of those numbers 7, and we look pretty damn good. The Suns are gone, and the Mavs are closed out. The Jazz have a Magic Number of 10 and with their road heavy we would close them out. We have home games against the Hornets and Blazers that can clinch tie breaks for us with a win. That would drop them 3 points in one fell swoop, and a victory over any of those teams just about guarantees that we close them out. The Spurs still control their own destiny and will be hard to take down, but that victory in SA gives us a legitimate shot to take the tie break and win the division. If we go 7-2, we need the Spurs to go 8-4 in order to tie them, which seems reasonable. I just don't see them doing worse. It's pretty much means we have to win the tie break or go 8-1. This Sunday's game against the Hornets is key. If they lose that game, we control our destiny for the tie break. Hopefully they lose to the Hawks tonight and to the Hornets on Sunday. That would see us back in the Southwest lead (assuming we beat the Clippers). As I and others have noted, there are a bunch of Contender vs. Contender matchups over the next week while the Rockets kick back and relax. By the time we resume our schedule, a number of teams will have dropped considerably. We have won 16 of our last 21 with road victories over the Nuggets, Hornets, and Spurs. While it would have been a personal joy to beat the Jazz, I still feel good about our chances to win home court in the first round, and I also have hope we can win the division. But I do know that I definitely don't want to face the Jazz in the first round. I'd give us a better chance to beat them than last year, but I still want no part of it. They just seem to have our number in Utah, and I think they could get 1 in Houston. Now I feel much better.
mixed emotions, while it is always nice to beat the Spurs in SA, I just hate hate hate losing to the Jazz again...I especially hate that the team HAD to know they would lose the number 2 slot with a loss and that should have inspired them to give the highest level of play they have....and it didn't. I'm looking at wins over Suns and Mavs also....Suns may be putting up numbers but pit them against a real defensive team and it's a different story. Mavs just arent that good this year and I fully expect the Rockets to be back on their game against Lil D. While a win against the Lakers is entirely possible, this team can play to their level when everything is clicking, Im not going to mark it as a win at this time since we never know when the Rockets are gonna have one of those nasty shooting nights like vs Jazz last night...and against the Lakers if you cant hit your shots you are toast The way the Spurs have been playing lately and the way the Hawks have been....it wouldn't surprise me to see them lose tonight.....at least that is what I'm praying for. It would take a monumental collapse to lose HC at this point IMO....we may lose a heart-breaker now and then, I just don't see this team losing it that badly down the stretch. Im not particularly fearful of the Jazz, I still think that without the injuries and walking wounded we had in the first round last year we should have took that one, and this team is actually working together better than that one was. My main deal isn't that I don't think we can beat Utah in a 7 game series....I'm just sick and tired of seeing their ugly mugs on my tv...give me someone else to face in the 1st rd that doesnt make me want to barf. good....and thanks again for your time and effort keeping us up to date....much appreciated.
I'm with you. My heart says "DESTROY THE JAZZ", but my head is saying the Spurs win is more important. The Jazz are going to lose a bunch of games, and we will finish with a better record than them. A loss to the Spurs the other day would have killed any chance of winning the division. I would love to get the division title this year. It's been so damn long since we won our division.
I've been meaning to give this post props for some time now. You hit the nail on the head. I have to sadly agree with you, and it's so freakin frustrating too. In the playoffs you need a combination of talent and luck to beat the Jazz. You might be able to match their intensity and match their execution, but not out-execute them. It was so frustrating last night to see even Shane Battier (the smartest Rockets player) make multiple mental mistakes on offense and defense. And with a bench of Landry, Wafer, and Lowry that will mainly be used in the playoffs, I can see them match the Jazz bench in terms of toughness and they can probably provide more energy, but the Jazz have smarts, athleticism, length, and shooting, and those things combined will just make the Rockets bench look stupid at times (like last night). It was so nice back in the day to have Dream bail out so many bad situations with unstoppable offensive moves. I remember those epic battles where where the Jazz would score at will against a scrappy Rockets and Rudy T never ever varied his PnR defense. The Rockets played pick your poison (which is fine) but they always chose the same poison. But the difference back then was the Jazz could not stop Dream in his prime...he was just too good. The Rockets of today are just not good enough, not talented enough on offense to beat the Jazz because when it comes to the other stuff (execution and making the smart decision), the Jazz are just too good. And the 2 shooting big men doesn't help either, because if the worst shot the Jazz can get EVERY time down the court is an OPEN face up jumper from Boozer or Millsap, then it's just a bad matchup.
we can beat the jazz, but way too often we just don't. the jazz didn't play that great last night and we still couldn't get it done. we were fighting an uphill battle all game because we failed to match their intensity and execution. i'm sure i'm in the minority here but i think adelman should tell aaron brooks to look for his shot all night long. he has a major speed advantage over almost every point guard in the league but he looks gun-shy to me. the jazz are so fundamentally sound but there is no combating speed. oh, and i definately agree with you about the jazz and their barf factor. my hate for the jazz far eclipses my spurs hate.
