Magic Numbers against the Western Conference

<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp; TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number &nbsp;Diff</B>
&nbsp;1&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;0-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;37-7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;2&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-22&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-4&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;29-12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;16</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;3&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-6&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;28-13
&nbsp;4&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;27-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;5&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;42-25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-4&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;24-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;6&nbsp;Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;43-26&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;22-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;7&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;42-26&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;28-11&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;8&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;41-28&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-7&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;22-20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;10</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;9&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;37-31&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4-6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;22-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

* Indicates the Tie Break is final

For more information on the Magic Number Chart or about seeding or tie break rules, read the FAQ

<B>Clinched the #9 seed</B>

The Mavs have been playing inconsistent basketball. The Haws were trying to complete a perfect 7 game homestand. Dallas kept it close and had their chances, but the Mavs misfired late as the Hawks won their 7th straight game. In their homestand, the Hawks took down the Hornets, Jazz, Blazers, and Mavs. We need to send them a gift basket. Joe Johnson had 24 points, and Flip Murray added 19 for the Hawks, who are 4 games up on the Heat for home court in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Dirk had 23 points and 12 rebounds for the Mavs, who have lost 3 of their last 4. Dallas loses a Magic Number and are now just 3 ½ games ahead of Phoenix for the #8 spot.

A couple of clutch fourth quarter players squared off when Brandon Roy’s Blazers played at LeBron’s Cavs. Cleveland is 30-1 at home this season, but the Blazers played them tough. LeBron and Brandon Roy both had big plays in the closing minute to force overtime, where LeBron and company took over. LeBron racked up another triple double with 26 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists, and the Z Man added 21 points for the Cavs. Brandon Roy had 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists, and Joel Przybilla had 13 points and 11 rebounds for the Blazers, who drop a Magic Number.

The Warriors visited LA and had another high-scoring game. Unfortunately for GolXen State, the Lakers actually play defense and won a shootout. The Spanish Acquisition scored 21 points and had 14 rebounds, and Kobe added 21 points for the Lakers. Monta Ellis had 27 points for GolXen State.

The Rockets draw one of their few Probable games left tomorrow, when the Wolves come to Houston. The Wolves have been terrible since Al Jefferson went down, losing 18 of their last 21 games. Even without Landry, we’re at home and should handle business against a team looking to move up in the lottery. Hopefully we can catch some other help and see Magic Numbers really fall, and the Southwest race could get mighty interesting if the Celtics beat the Spurs.

Also on tap for Friday: Mavs at Pacers, Grizz at Hornets, Jazz at Thieves, Celtics at Spurs, Wizards at Nuggets

 

If we win tonight, the Spurs lose tonight, AND we beat the Spurs in SA on Sunday, we'd technically be a 1/2 game up and only 1 game back in the loss column. And we could still get the divisional tie break over SA.

A Spurs loss tonight and a Rockets victory certainly makes the weekend game interesting.

 

My sense of humor doesn't kick in until after my first cup of coffee, which has now been remedied

But it's going to be mighty interesting to see the standings on Monday morning. We could be anywhere from 2-6.

 

It’s time for another Friday look at the State of the Western Conference Playoff Race. I’m using Magic Numbers from 3/19 in this post.

Yet again, the projected standings are jumbled from last week’s. Hot teams cooled off, cold teams got red hot, and solid teams dropped some bad games. With the standings so close, these subtle shifts can drastically alter the standings.

<B>Rockets</B>: Wolves, @Spurs, @Jazz, Clippers, @Suns, @Lakers, Blazers, Magic, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets, @Mavs

<B>Last Week: 3-1</B>
ROCKETS 91, @Bobcats 86
Spurs 88, @ROCKETS 85
ROCKETS 95, @Hornets 84
@ROCKETS 106, Pistons 101

We had another great week, although it could have been stellar if we had taken the Spurs game. The Rockets looked terrible down the stretch a lot last week, and it cost them that game with the Spurs. However, the guys flipped a switch and played absolutely clutch against the Hornets. The Rockets went 2-1 against Contenders and took their lone Probable game.

We’ve had the #3 seed for over a week now, and we should keep it through at least Saturday. We then draw a pair of huge road games that will test the Rockets, who will be without Carl Landry. We can clinch a tie break over Utah with a victory over the Jazz, and we give ourselves a shot at the tie break and possibly the Southwest Division title with a victory over the Spurs.

The Rockets have 8 Contender (3H, 5A) and 4 Probable (2H, 2A) games left on their schedule. I still think we’ll take the remainder of our Probable games and finish 4-0 against them. That would drop all Magic Number 4.

We’ve taken down a lot of Contenders recently, including the Nuggets and Hornets on the road, and we’re about to get severely tested. Our next 4 Contender contests are all on the road. Obviously having Landry would boost our chances, but even without knowing his availability, I like this team’s chances on any given night if they stick to their game plan. It’s when they become Rockets Gone Wild that they fall apart. I’ll go with a conservative 4-4 record against this bunch, which would give us a 53-29 record and the #3 seed.

<B> Top Eight West Contenders</B>

<B>Suns</B>: Wizards, Nuggets, Jazz, @Blazers, @Jazz, @Kings, Rockets, Kings, @Mavs, @Hornets, @Grizz, @Wolves, Grizz, Warriors

<B>Last Week: 3-0</B>
@SUNS 106, Thieves 95
SUNS 154, @Warriors 130
@SUNS 126, 116 76ers

I had planned to write something snarky about keeping the Suns on this list as a charity case, but they have breathed some life into their chances for the #8 seed. The Suns had a perfect week, feasting on a buffet of Probables after a hellish 7 game stretch. Good news is they draw the Wizards next. The bad news is they then face 7 Contenders in 9 games. If they bomb this stretch, they’re done. However, if they fare well against Contenders and win in Dallas, they could stick around until the last week.

With our 4 Probable victories, we knock the Suns out with a combination of 2 Sun losses and Rocket Contender victories. The Rockets play the Suns April 1 and would reduce their Magic Number by 2 with a victory.

Phoenix has 7 Contender (3H, 4A) and 7 Probable (4H, 3A) games left on their schedule. I expect them to take all or almost all of their Probable Games, but those Contender games are going to trip them up. Their last Seven Games of Doom tour exposed their flaws against the Contenders, and I can’t see them doing better than 2-5 this time. I just don’t see any way for the Suns to catch the Rockets, but they certainly could make life interesting for Dallas and the #8 seed.

Likelihood: Damn Near Certain
Magic Number: 6 (-3)
Magic Number over Rockets: 21 (-4)
Magic Number over Mavericks: 18 (-5)
Projected Record: 46-36
Projected Seed: #9

<B>Mavericks</B>: @Pacers, Warriors, Nuggets, @Cavs, @Wolves, Heat, @Grizz, Suns, Jazz, Hornets, @Hornets, Wolves, Rockets

<B>Last Week: 1-3</B>
@Warriors 119, MAVS 110
@Lakers 107, MAVS 100
@MAVS 103, Pistons 101
@Hawsks 95, MAVS 87

A week ago the Mavs were making noise to move up in the standings, but after a pretty bad week, Dallas find themselves entrenched in the #8 spot, with Phoenix creeping up. Still, I’m going to give the Mavs a bit of a break considering their schedule last week. The Warriors have their number, there’s no shame in losing to the Lakers, and the Hawks have been red hot at home lately. They did beat the Pistons to keep the bottom from falling out. Dallas has an interesting schedule coming up. If the Suns get on a serious roll, Dallas is going to have to get some tough wins to fend them off.

With our 4 Probable victories, we knock the Mavs out with a combination of 6 Mav losses and Rocket Contender victories. If we beat the Mavs on the last game of the season, we drop their Magic Number by 3. If the Mavs win the last game in Dallas, we should have a better division record (we’re 7-6, they’re 5-7) and take the tie break anyways, reducing their Magic Number by 1.

Dallas closes with 8 Contender (6H, 2A) and 5 Probable (2H, 3A) games. Dallas is inconsistent overall, but they are a solid 25-8 at home this season. I think they’ll do well against their Probables, but will lose once to GolXen State or another Probable. Even with their solid record at home, I’ll pick them going 4-4 against Contenders to wrap up with a 8-5 finish.

Even if we lose the tie break, we’d need just 1 Contender victory to close the Mavs out. If we win in Dallas OR lose that game and wind up with a better division record, that officially closes them out.

Likelihood: Excellent
Magic Number: 10 (-6)
Magic Number over Rockets: 17 (-2)
Magic Number over Spurs: 20 (-2)
Magic Number over Hornets: 17 (-3)
Magic Number over Suns: 11 (-1)
Projected Record: 49-33
Projected Seed: #8

<B>Jazz</B>: @Thieves, Rockets, @Suns, Suns, Knicks, @Blazers, Wolves, @Nuggets, @Hornets, @Mavs, @Spurs, Warriors, Clippers, @Lakers

<B>Last Week: 1-2</B>
@Heat 140, JAZZ 129
@Magic 105, JAZZ 87
@JAZZ 103, Wizards 88

The past week has really exposed the Jazz as a terrible road team, even when they’re back to full strength. The victory over the Wizards snapped a 3 game losing streak, but that was a pretty uninspired effort against a really bad Washington team. The Jazz seem in a bit of a funk, and have a brutal closing schedule. If they don’t get it together quick, they can kiss the division title goodbye and start thinking about how they match up with the Lakers or Spurs.

With our 4 Probable victories, we knock the Jazz out with a combination of 8 Jazz losses and Rocket Contender victories. The Rockets play in Utah on Tuesday, and a win would clinch the season series 3-1 and drop Utah’s Magic Number 3.

The Jazz close with 9 Contenders (2H, 7A) and 5 Probables (4H, 1A). They should sweep their Probables, but I am curious about the game tonight at the Thieves which is also a division game for Utah. The Contender schedule is just brutal for Utah, especially considering how poorly they fare on the road. 3-6 seems likely to me for a 8-6 closing record.

If we win our last game in Utah, we would close the Jazz out. If we lose that game, we would likely wind up with a worse Conference Record if we wound up tied with Utah and would lose the tie break. Still the Rockets would need just 2 Contender victories to close the Jazz out.

Likelihood: Excellent (Damn Near Certain if we win in Utah, Really Good if we lose)
Magic Number: 12 (-5)
Magic Number over Rockets: 16 (-2)
Magic Number over Blazers: 15 (-3)
Magic Number over Nuggets: 16 (-1)
Projected Record: 50-32
Projected Seed: #7

<B>Nuggets</B>: Wizards, @Suns, @Hornets, @Mavs, Warriors, Knicks, Jazz, Clippers, @Wolves, Thieves, @Lakers, Kings, @Blazers

<B>Last Week: 3-0</B>
@NUGGETS 107, Clippers 94
@NUGGETS 121, Nets 96
NUGGETS 111, @Grizz 109

The Nuggets still haven’t convinced me they are going to win the Northwest division, despite their 3-0 week. They looked good enough but still gave up too many points to the Nets and Clippers, and Enver got incredibly lucky that the Grizz self-destructed or they’d be sitting at 2-1 for the week and resting at the #6 spot. Their schedule gets a lot tougher after the Wizards, and I’m curious how they’ll fare and what their schizo psyche will be after a three game road trip featuring the Suns, Hornets, and Mavs.

With our 4 Probable victories, we knock the Nuggets out with a combination of 8 Nugget losses and Rocket Contender victories. The Rockets own the tie break over the Nuggets after taking the season series 3-1.

Enver has 6 Contenders (1H, 5A) and 10 Probable (6H, 1A) games left. They’ve won 4 straight against Probables, so I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt and predict a 6-1 finish against Probables. The tough closing stretch against Contenders will do them in, however, and I think they’ll manage no better than 1-5. That gives them a 7-6 finish, so we’d need just 2 more Contender victories to close them out.

Likelihood: Really Good
Magic Number: 12 (-3)
Magic Number over Rockets: 14 (-4)
Magic Number over Blazers: 13 (-5)
Magic Number over Jazz: 13 (-5)
Projected Record: 51-31
Projected Seed: #6

<B>Hornets</B>: Grizz, Warriors, Nuggets, @Knicks, Spurs, @Kings, @Clippers, @Warriors, Jazz, @Heat, Suns, @Mavs, Mavs, @Rockets, Spurs

<B>Last Week: 2-2</B>
HORNETS 95, @Bucks 86
@Bulls 97, HORNETS 79
Rockets 95, @HORNETS 84
@HORNETS 94, Wolves 93

The Hornets are another team that seems to be in a funk. That winning streaks after the Chandler trade was rescinded seems an eternity ago, and the Hornets have looked uneven against all teams (good and bad) lately. They got a victory over the Bucks, but looked apathetic in a bad loss to the Bulls. The Rockets dominated them in the fourth quarter, and they barely held on to beat a bad Wolves team at home. Not incredibly inspiring for a team that is trying to get home court in the first round and has the best point guard in the NBA. They’d better take advantage of the next 8 games because they close with their own Seven Games of Doom that could seem the fall to the bottom of the scrum.

With our 4 Probable victories, we knock the Hornets out with a combination of 9 Hornet losses and Rocket Contender victories. The Rockets lead the season series 2-1. If we win in Houston on April 13, we take the tie break and drop the Hornets 3. If we lose, we would very likely lose the tie break because of our division record. As a bonus, we draw the Hornets on the second night of a back-to-back they have with us and Dallas.

The Hornets have 9 Contender (6H, 3A) games and 9 Probables (2H, 4A). Their uneven play has tagged them with a few losses, and I can’t see them sweeping their Probables. I’ll call it 5-1. They’re going to struggle with that closing schedule. They face 7 Contenders in 11 days to finish the season, and I see them faring poorly and going into the Playoffs on a bad note. I’ll predict a 5-4 finish against Contender for a 10-5 close.

If we take that game from the Hornets, we’d need only 1 more Contender victory to close them out. If we lose, we’d need 4 more Contender victories.

The Blazers and Hornets split the season series 2-2, but the Conference Record favors the Hornets, who would win the tie break over the Blazers.

Likelihood: Good (Damn Near Certain if we win April 13, Dicey if we lose)
Magic Number: 13 (-5)
Magic Number over Rockets: 16 (-3)
Magic Number over Spurs: 19 (-3)
Magic Number over Mavs: 13 (-5)
Projected Record: 52-30
Projected Seed: #5

<B>Blazers</B>: @Bucks, 76ers, Suns, Grizz, Jazz, @Thieves, @Rockets, @Grizz, @Spurs, Lakers, @Clippers, Thieves, Nuggets

<B>Last Week: 3-2</B>
@BLAZERS 109, Nets 100.
@Hawks 98, BLAZERS 80
BLAZERS 103, @Grizz 92
BLAZERS 95, @Pacers 85
@Cavs 97, BLAZERS 92

It was a busy week for the Blazers. They beat their 3 Probables, but dropped both of the Contender road games. Considering that they lost in Cleveland and Atlanta, they get a bit of slack, but they still finish the week a game back behind the Nuggets for the Northwest after Portland briefly held the lead for a few days. Their schedule has some tough games, but overall the Blazers should be able to do quite well down the stretch. It doesn’t hurt having one of the most clutch fourth quarter players in Brandon Roy. The Norhtwest division crown could well be decided on the last day of the season when the Blazers host the Nuggets.

With our 4 Probable victories, we knock the Blazers out with a combination of 8 Blazer losses and Rocket Contender victories. If we beat the Blazers in Houston on April 5, we take the tie break and knock their Magic Number down 3. If we lose that game, the Blazers clinch the tie break over the Rockets.

The Blazers have 6 Contender (4H, 2A) and 7 Probable (3H, 4A) games left on their schedule. While Brandon Roy is clutch, the Blazers have allowed some bad teams to hang around and keep games close. I think they’ll do quite well against the Probables, but they’ll like drop a game on the road with lacksadaisical play. The Blazers have a 8-13 record against Western Conference Playoff teams, and I see them finishing a respectable 3-3 against the 6 Contenders they have left on their schedule. That’s a 9-4 close. If we take the game in Houston, we’d need just 1 more Contender victory, but if we lose we’d need 4 more Contender victories.

Likelihood: Cautiously Optimistic (Excellent if we win April 5, Dicey if we lose)
Magic Number: 12 (-5)
Magic Number over Rockets: 15 (-4)
Magic Number over Nuggets: 15 (-3)
Magic Number over Jazz: 14 (-5)
Projected Record: 52-30
Projected Seed: #4

<B>Spurs</B>: Celtics, Rockets, Warriors, @Hawks, Clippers, @Hornets, Thieves, @Pacers, @Cavs, @Thieves, Blazers, Jazz, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets

<B>Last Week: 2-1</B>
SPURS 88, @Rockets 85
@Thieves 78, SPURS 76
@SPURS 93, Wolves 86

The Spurs capitalized on some terrible Rocket play to get the win in Houston last Saturday, but they let the Thieves hold them to a season low in points a few days later. They rested Duncan in a close victory over the Wolves. I was ready to hand the division to the Spurs, but the Rockets can still make this a contest if they win in San Antonio on Sunday. They’ll also need some help from the Spurs, who have a moderately difficult schedule. Ginobili is still out, and Popovich randomly decides to rest starters regardless of the Playoff race.

With our 4 Probable victories, we knock the Spurs out with a combination of 12 Spur losses and Rocket Contender victories. The Rockets are 1-2 against the Spurs, and if we lose on Sunday, we definitely lose the tie break. If the Rockets win, they knock the Spurs down 2 and still preserve a decent shot at taking the tie break. With the win, we’d have a 8-6 division record to their 9-5 record, and the Rockets would have a ½ game lead in the conference record (assuming we beat the Wolves tonight). That means we’d need to make up 1 game in the division. We still have Hornets, @Mavs, while the Spurs have @Hornets, Hornets. So we could still clinch the tie break and drop them an additional point.

The Spurs have 8 Contenders (5H, 3A) and 7 Probables (3H, 4A) left on their schedule. They are tied with the Hornets for most games left with 15 over the next 27 days and have 2 sets of back-to-backs left (Warriors-@Hawks, @Thieves-Blazers). Ginobili doesn’t seem like he’s coming back for at least another few weeks, and Duncan has been getting nights off to rest his knee. I could see the Spurs dropping a few games with such a compressed schedule. Still they are the Spurs. They’ll likely close 6-1 against their Probables, but I think they’ll split the Contender 4-4 for a 10-5 finish.

If we take the game on Sunday from the Spurs, we’d still have to win 5 more Contender games (maybe 4 if we wind up pocketing the tie break). If we lose that game, we’d have to sweep our Contender games.

Likelihood: Very Difficult (Dicey if we beat them and get the tie break, Not likely if we beat them and lose the tie break, Not Happening if we lose)
Magic Number: 16 (-4)
Magic Number over Rockets: 13 (-3)
Magic Number over Mavs: 10 (-5)
Magic Number over Hornets: 13 (-4)
Projected Record: 55-27
Projected Seed: #2

<B>Lakers</B>: @Bulls, @Thieves, @Pistons, @Nets, @Hawks, @Bobcats, @Bucks, Rockets, Clippers, @Kings, Nuggets, @Blazers, Grizz, Jazz

<B>Last Week: 2-1</B>
@LAKERS 107, Mavs 100
76ers 94, @LAKERS 93
@LAKERS 114, Warriors 106

The Lakers have the Pacific division title and have pretty much wrapped up the #1 seed, but they are fighting for Home Court Advantage in the Finals with the Cavs and Celtics, so they have incentive not to coast. They are about to embark on a 2 week, 7 game road trip and the draw the Rockets when they get home. I really hope they’re tired for that homecoming game. The Lakers only have 3 other games against Western Conference Contenders, and I need to send Phil a memo to use that closing 4 game stretch to get fine-tuned for the Playoffs.

With our 4 Probable victories, we’d need a combination of 20 Laker losses and Rocket Contender victories to close them out. Not happening, move along. The only hope is for them to lose to the Rockets and hang a loss on the Nuggets, Blazers, and Jazz.

The Lakers have 6 Contender (3H, 3A) and 8 Probable (2H, 6A) games left. I’m curious to see how LA does on the extended road trip, even though they have only 1 really difficult game in that stretch. LA will likely steamroll the Probables, going 7-1, and play well against the Contenders, going 4-2. They’ll finish 11-3.

Likelihood: Not This Year
Magic Number: 24 (-4)
Magic Number over Rockets: 3 (-3)
Magic Number over Spurs: 6 (-3)
Projected Record: 65-17
Projected Seed: #1

<B>Projected Matchups</B>:
#1 Lakers hosting #8 Mavs
#2 Spurs hosting #7 Jazz
#3 Rockets hosting #6 Nuggets
#5 Hornets hosting #4 Blazers

<B>This Week’s Key Head to Head Matchups</B>:
Sunday: Rockets at Spurs
Monday: Nuggets at Suns
Tuesday: Rockets at Jazz
Wednesday: Nuggets at Hornets
Wednesday: Jazz at Suns
Thursday: Suns at Blazers