<B> Games H2H Div Con Overall Magic </B> <B> Team W/L H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TieBreak Number Diff</B> 1 Lakers 44-10 0-2 1H,1A L N/A X 27-4 W No<B> 40</B> (-43) 2 Nuggets 37-17 2-1 1A W N/A X 22-11 W Yes<B> 33</B> (-50) 3 Spurs 36-17 1-1 1H,1A T 7-3 L 23-8 W No<B> 33</B> (-50) 4 Blazers 33-20 0-1 2H L N/A X 16-15 W No<B> 30</B> (-53) 5 Hornets 32-20 1-1 1H,1A T 5-3 L 20-12 W No<B> 30</B> (-53) 6 Rockets 33-21 4-5 21-10 7 Mavericks 32-21 1-1 1H,1A T 4-4 L 17-14 W No<B> 29</B> (-54) 8 Jazz 32-23 2-0 2A W N/A X 22-11 W Yes<B> 27</B> (-56) 9 Suns 30-23 1-0 1H,1A W N/A X 18-13 W Yes<B> 27</B> (-56) 10 Warriors 19-36 3-0 1A W N/A X 10-21 W Yes*<B> 13</B> (-70) 11 Wolves 18-35 2-0 1H,1A W N/A X 9-23 W Yes<B> 15</B> (-68) 12 Grizzlies 15-39 1-2 1H L 4-9 W 9-26 W No<B> 11</B> (-72) 13 OKC Thieves 13-41 3-0 None W N/A X 8-24 W Yes*<B> 8</B> (-75) 14 Clippers 13-42 2-1 1H W N/A X 8-27 W Yes<B> 8</B> (-75) 15 Kings 11-44 2-0 1A W N/A X 11-22 W Yes<B> 6</B> (-77) * Indicates the Tie Break is final <B>Clinched the #15 seed</B> Here are the Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>Feburary 19</B>. Rockets host the Mavs tonight. It would be helpful to take down one of our playoff rivals and keep pace with the upper part of the 4-9 scrum. Also on tap for Friday: Kings & Grizzlies, Nuggets at Bulls, Thunder at Suns, Hawks at Blazers, Hornets at Lakers
I thought I’d put up the Magic Number thread now to counter some of the doom and gloom running through the board. I have no idea how Lowry is going to fit into the rotation, how much we’ll miss Rafer, if TMac is coming back, or how we’d adjust to him being gone for the year. I guess we’ll see over the next 2 months. Maybe they’ll start playing with a bit more passion. I was so excited about this season and our roster, but their lethargy has made it hard to get pumped up for their games. I do think we’ll make the playoffs this year. I don’t know if we’ll make it out of the first round. Our best case scenario is to face Portland or Denver. If we draw the Lakers, Spurs, or Hornets, we will lose. Maybe we could beat Utah, but I want no part of them in the first round. I don’t think I can take three straight years and five straight series going back to 1997. So it’s time to bust out the Magic Number chart. I’ve got a new Excel engine in it, and I’ve been running it daily all season for my own benefit. Now it’s time to inflict it on the rest of you. Hopefully following the playoff chase will cheer us up a bit over the drastic turns this season has taken over the past few weeks. So how do these Magic Numbers work? Magic Numbers work for 2 team tie-break (multiple team tie-breaks are covered later). If a Magic Number drops to 0, that means the Rockets have a better record over that team and would have home court over them if they met in the playoffs. Magic Numbers drop in three different ways. If the Rockets win, the Magic Number drops 1 for every other Western Conference team. If a Western Conference team loses, their Magic Number drops 1. If the Rockets clinch a Tie Break (details below) over a team, that team’s Magic Number drops 1. At the start of the season, all teams started with a Magic Number of 83. How do 2 team tie breaks work? If 2 teams are tied (and not part of a multiple team tie break), the way it’s broken down is head-to-head, then division record (if it’s the Grizz, Spurs, Mavs, or Hornets), then conference record. We play most Western Conference teams 4 times, and others 3 times. For the teams we play 3 times, head-to-head decides the tie break. What do these columns mean? H2H – The head-to-head record for the Rockets against the given team. Games Left – How many games we have left against the given team. Broken out by home (H) and away (A). H2H TB – The head-to-head tie break. We either have a winning record (W), losing record (L), or are tied (T). Div – The division record of the Mavs, Spurs, Grizz, and Hornets. All non-division opponents have N/A. Div TB – The division record tie break. We either have a better division record (W), worse division record (L), or are tied (T). Teams that aren’t in our division have an X. Conf – The conference record of an opponent. Conf TB – The conference record tie break. We either have a better conference record (W), worse conference record (L), or are tied (T). Overall Tiebreak – Denotes if we won the 2 team tie break over a given team. If there’s an * at the end, that means the tie break is final and cannot be changed. If we clinch a tie break over a team, their Magic Number drops 1. If another team clinches a tie break over the Rockets, their Magic Number stays the same. Magic Number – An opponent’s Magic Number. Diff – How much the Magic Number changed from the last time I ran an update. The season started with all opponents at 83, so this is what the initial chart shows. The next one will use these Numbers as their base. For more information, you can read what the NBA has to say: http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html#tbb How do multiple team tie breaks work? This scenario came into play last year, and I imagine it will again this year with only 3 games separating seeds 4 – 9. Let’s say 3 teams are tied (the same logic applies to 4 or 5 team ties). You take their combined record against one another. I’m using last season’s numbers for an example. Rockets: 2-1 against Lakers, 2-2 against Hornets Lakers: 1-2 against Rockets, 2-2 against Hornets Hornets: 2-2 against Rockets, 2-2 against Lakers So the cumulative totals are: Rockets: 4-3 Lakers: 3-4 Hornets: 4-4 In that bunch, the Rockets have the best winning percentage, then the Hornets, then the Lakers, and that’s the order they’d be seeded. Now if any of these teams faced off in the playoffs, 2 team tie breaks are used to determine home court advantage. Last year, the Hornets would have won the 2 team tie break over the Rockets because they split the head to head and had a better division record. How does seeding work? I hate the NBA playoff seeding rules, but let’s run through the Order of Operations: 1) Seed teams 1-8 based on record. If 2 teams are tied, use 2 team tie break rules to determine order. If more than 2 teams are tied, use multiple team tie break rules. 2) Now determine your three division winners. If two or more teams are tied atop a division, use the appropriate tie break rules to determine who wins. 3) Are all three division winners a top 4 seed? If not, take the lowest seeded division winner and move them up to the #4 seed. Bump the other teams down a spot to make room. 4) Award home court advantage in each round to the team with the best record. If the teams are tied, use 2 team tie breaks. This system has awarded the Rockets the #5 seed, and the Jazz #4 seed the past few years. The Jazz won their division, but only had the fifth best conference record. The Rocket had the fourth best conference record and a better record than the Jazz each year, so they had home court advantage over Utah.
Let’s take a look at the rest of our competition for the playoffs. There are pretty much 9 teams battling for the playoffs. While we haven’t officially clinched over the Kings, Clippers, Thieves, Grizz, Wolves, or Warriors, it’s just a matter of time. I think we can safely put the Lakers in the #1 spot. The Spurs and Nuggets also like they’re a top 4 team. That leaves the Blazers, Hornets, Rockets, Mavs, Jazz, and Suns duking it out for 5 spots. We’re currently right in the middle of them. The question is how the seeding race shakes out and the first-round playoff matchups. Let’s look at the Numbers and see if we can make some sense from them. <B>The Probables: 10 Games</B> Bobcats, @Bulls, @Wovles, Raptors, Grizz, @Bobcats, Wolves, Clippers, @Kings, @Warriors We should beat these teams. Half are on the road, and half are at home. However, this season has seen us lose too many of these games. Hopefully, they’ll play with a bit more urgency now that they know the team they’re going to have for the rest of the season. I don’t expect the Rockets to run the table, but I forsee at 8-2 finish to these games, which would knock all Magic Number down 8. <B>The Contenders: 18 Games</B> Mavs, Blazers, Cavs, @Jazz, Suns, @Nuggets, Lakers, Spurs, @Hornets, Pistons, @Spurs, @Jazz, @Suns, @Lakers, Blazers, Magic, Hornets, @Mavs We have 18 games left against Playoff contenders. The bad news is that these are going to be tough and 8 of them are on the road. The good news is that a lot of these are against teams we’re battling to get a ticket to the dance. 9-9 seems reasonable, but I could see us going 7-11 or 11-7. I’m running with 9-9, so all Magic Numbers would drop 9. Overall, I’m assuming the Rockets go 17-11 down the stretch to finish 50-22. All Magic Numbers would drop 17 under this scenario. <B> Top Eight West Contenders</B> <B>Suns</B>: Thieves, Celtics, Bobcats, @Lakers, Raptors, Lakers, @Magic, @Heat, @Rockets, @Spurs, Mavs, Cavs, Thieves, @Warriors, 76ers, Wizards, Nuggets, Jazz, @Blazers, @Jazz, @Kings, Rockets, Kings, @Mavs, @Hornets, @Grizz, @Wolves, Grizz, Warriors I think this is the most likely team to miss the playoffs. They’ve had such a chaotic year from the time they fired D’Antoni. Porter was always a terrible fit, and they might have turned a corner with Genry. Although I discount 2 blowout wins over the Clippers. Friday’s news that Stodemire is out for the season has got to be crushing, and I don’t see how they can play Seven Seconds or Less game as effectively without him. Best case this team finishes 15-14, but I think 13-16 is more likely. They’re going to get tired (I’m looking at you Shaq) playing at that pace, and they have some rough stretches where I could see them drop 3 or 4 in a row. We only play the Suns 3 times this year and have already taken the first game. That means we only need to beat them 1 more time to clinch a tie break, which drops their Magic Number an additional point. Assuming we do win 17 games and get the tie break over the Suns, that drops their Magic Number to 9. They’d have to go 20-9 to beat us out for a spot, and I don’t see that happening for Phoenix this year. Magic Number: 27 Projected Record: 45-37 Prognosis: #9 <B>Mavericks</B>: @Rockets, Kings, @Spurs, Bucks, Thieves, Raptors, @Thieves, Spurs, @Hornets, Wizards, @Suns, @Blazers, @Warriors, @Lakers, Pistons, @Hawks, @Pacers, Warriors, Nuggets, @Cavs, @Wolves, Heat, @Grizz, Suns, Jazz, Hornets, @Hornets, Wolves, Rockets The second most likely team to miss the Playoffs. They’ve looked pretty bad as times and wildly inconsistent (sound familiar?). I’m pressed that they are 11 games over .500, but they’ve got a rough stretch to close with (including their last 6). I think they’ll go 14-15, but I could see that being 12-17 quite easily. Magic Number: 27 Projected Record: 46-36 Prognosis: #8 <B>Jazz</B>: Hornets, Hawks, @Wolves, Kings, @Warriors, Rockets, Nuggets, @Raptors, @Pacers, @Hawks, @Heat, @Magic, Wizards, @Thieves, Rockets, @Suns, Suns, Knicks, @Blazers, Wolves, @Hornets, @Mavs, @Spurs, Warriors, Clippers, @Lakers They’ve been hit by injuries as badly as we have. Milsap’s played great while Boozer’s been out, but Deron Williams needs to be healthy for them to cling to their spot. I think they’ll wind up 14-11 over the last 25 games. We’ve taken 2 from them, although both were in Houston. That means we need to take only 1 game of the pair of games we play in Utah in order to clinch a tie break over them and drop their Magic Number an additional point. I think we can get at least a split, so that means their Magic Number drops 18. They’d have to go 17-8 to beat us out, and that seems unlikely. I’m giving them 7 because the Jazz hold a 2-1 head to head advantage and have a better conference record, making it likely they’d win a 2 team tie break over Dallas. Magic Number: 27 Projected Record: 46-36 Prognosis: #7 <B>Blazers</B>: Hawks, Clippers, @Rockets, @Spurs, @Wolves, Spurs, Pacers, @Nuggets, Wolves, Lakers, Mavs, Nets, @Hawks, @Grizz, @Pacers, @Cavs, @Bucks, 76ers, Suns, Grizz, Jazz, @Thieves, @Rockets, @Grizz, @Spurs, Lakers, @Clippers, Thieves, Nuggets They’ve played really well this year. I assumed they’d make the Playoffs, but I didn’t foresee them challenging for a top 4 seed. However, I think they’ll fall a bit short. Denver is probably going to win that division, and New Orleans seems like they’ll have a better record than Portland. They’ve got some tough games left, but I think they’ll finish out at 17-12. We only play the Blazers 3 teams this year, so the winner of the head to head wins the tie break. The Rockets threw the game in Portland away, but the last 2 games are both in Houston. I would love to see the Rockets take both, but I think Portland will get a split. If that happens, the Blazers would have to go at least 16-11 in the remainder of their games to close the Rockets out. If we take both games in Houston, Portland would have to go 18-9, which while feasible seems unlikely. Magic Number: 30 Projected Record: 50-32 Prognosis: #5 <B>Hornets</B>: @Lakers, @Jazz, @Kings, Pistons, Bucks, @Nets, @76ers, Mavs, Thieves, @Hawks, @Wizards, @Bucks, @Bulls, Rockets, Wolves, Grizz, Warriors, Nuggets, @Knicks, Spurs, @Kings, @Clippers, @Warriors, Jazz, @Heat, Suns, @Mavs, Mavs, @Rockets, Spurs I was bummed the Chandler trade was rescinded. He’s only going to help them with their seeding this year, although I do think they’ll trade him in offseason. Nonetheless, the Hornets look like a lock to make the Playoffs even though they’ve been a lot less consistent than last year. I predict a 19-11 finish even though their last 7 games are tough. That’ll be good enough to earn a top 4 seed, but not enough to knock off the Spurs for the division title. Assuming we win 17 more games this year, we’d have a shot at knocking the Hornets off. We’re tied 1-1 in head to head, and we’d have to win the last 2 games to take the tie break. They have a better division record thanks to our 2 Grizz losses, which always come back to haunt us with division rivals. I don’t think we’ll take both from them, so that means, the Hornets would have a Magic Number of 13. A 17-13 record doesn’t seem that far fetched for the Hornets, but I think they’ll win at least 18 of their final games to edge us out. Magic Number: 30 Projected Record: 51-31 Prognosis: #4 <B>Spurs</B>: @Wizards, Mavs, Blazers, Cavs, @Blazers, @Clippers, @Mavs, Wizards, Suns, Bobcats, Lakers, @Rockets, @Thieves, Wolves, Celtics, Rockets, Warriors, @Hawks, Clippers, @Hornets, Thieves, @Pacers, @Cavs, @Thieves, Blazers, Jazz, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets Even with Ginobili out for 3 weeks they’ll take the Southwest. I don’t know why people always sleep on this team, but they’re right where I expected. If they’re healthy, they’ll be a tough out, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win the West. I think they’ll finish 18-11 despite a number of tough games. That’s good for #3, but I don’t think they’ll catch Denver. We’d have to win both remaining games against the Spurs to take the tie break due to our division record (thanks Grizz). Assuming we don’t get them both, the Spurs would have to finish 13-16 for us to catch them. They have a rough slate of games, but I don’t seem them dropping that many. Magic Number: 33 Projected Record: 54-28 Prognosis: #3 <B>Nuggets</B>: @Bulls, @Bucks, Celtics, Hawks, Lakers, @Pacers, @Pistons, Blazers, @Jazz, @Kings, @Rockets, Thieves, Clippers, Nets, @Grizz, Wizards, @Suns, @Hornets, @Mavs, Warriors, Knicks, Jazz, Clippers, @Wolves, Thieves, @Lakers, Kings, @Blazers Meet your Northwest Division champions. The trade for Billups rejuvinated this team, and they’ve achieved a lot more than I though they would. They have a 3 game lead on the Blazers and tie break over the Spurs at this point. I think they’ll finish these games 19-9, which is a pretty solid record. We could still take the tie break with a win in Denver on March 9. Even assuming we do, the Nuggets would still have to finish 13-15 for us to catch them, and I don’t see that happening this year. Magic Number: 33 Projected Record: 56-26 Prognosis: #2 <B>Lakers</B>: Hornets, @Wolves, @Thieves, Suns, @Nuggets, @Suns, Grizz, Wolves, @Blazers, @Rockets, @Spurs, Dallas, 76ers, Warriors, @Bulls, @Thieves, @Pistons, @Nets, @Hawks, @Bobcats, @Bucks, Rockets, Clippers, @Kings, Nuggets, @Blazers, Grizz, Jazz There really hasn’t been any doubt that they’d get the #1 seed this year. They have a 7 game road trip, but those are winnable games. I think they’ll finish 21-7 to cruise to the top seed. While there might be drama in the battle over 2 & 3, 4 & 5, and over the last spot, the battle for #1 is done. Unless the Lakers 5-23, we’re not catching them. That’s not happening unless Kobe blows a knee along with half the team developing plantar fasciitis. Magic Number: 40 Projected Record: 65-17 Prognosis: #1 <B>Prediction -</B> We finish as the #6 seed and draw the Spurs in the first round.
you gotta put the code around it,bro. Code: Div Con Overall Magic Team W/L H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TieBreak Number Diff 1 Lakers 44-10 0-2 1H,1A L N/A X 27-4 W No 40 (-43) 2 Nuggets 37-17 2-1 1A W N/A X 22-11 W Yes 33 (-50) 3 Spurs 36-17 1-1 1H,1A T 7-3 L 23-8 W No 33 (-50) 4 Blazers 33-20 0-1 2H L N/A X 16-15 W No 30 (-53) 5 Hornets 32-20 1-1 1H,1A T 5-3 L 20-12 W No 30 (-53) 6 Rockets 33-21 4-5 21-10 7 Mavericks 32-21 1-1 1H,1A T 4-4 L 17-14 W No 29 (-54) 8 Jazz 32-23 2-0 2A W N/A X 22-11 W Yes 27 (-56) 9 Suns 30-23 1-0 1H,1A W N/A X 18-13 W Yes 27 (-56) 10 Warriors 19-36 3-0 1A W N/A X 10-21 W Yes* 13 (-70) 11 Wolves 18-35 2-0 1H,1A W N/A X 9-23 W Yes 15 (-68) 12 Grizzlies 15-39 1-2 1H L 4-9 W 9-26 W No 11 (-72) 13 OKC Thieves 13-41 3-0 None W N/A X 8-24 W Yes* 8 (-75) 14 Clippers 13-42 2-1 1H W N/A X 8-27 W Yes 8 (-75) 15 Kings 11-44 2-0 1A W N/A X 11-22 W Yes 6 (-77)
Glad to have it back up. You gotta believe! I live in Seattle, so I've got no love for that team. I thought about putting it in CODE tags, but then you have to scroll to the right to see all the data.
I friggin LOVE magic # threads. This was so epic during our streak. Woot woot woot! Thanks scribo, you are the MANNNN
Thanks. I love this thread. Perfect timing, also. Based on your numbers, I still see the Rockets sneaking into the 5th seed...but I'll take the 6th if we could face the Nuggets somehow. Not sure how this would all work out.
<B> Games H2H Div Con Overall Magic </B> <B> Team W/L H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TieBreak Number Diff</B> 1 Lakers 45-10 0-2 1H,1A L N/A X 28-4 W No<B> 39</B> (-1) 2 Spurs 36-17 1-1 1H,1A T 7-3 L 23-8 W No<B> 32</B> (-1) 3 Nuggets 37-18 2-1 1A W N/A X 22-11 W Yes<B> 31</B> (-2) 4 Blazers 34-20 0-1 2H L N/A X 16-15 W No<B> 29</B> (-1) 5 Rockets 34-21 5-5 22-10 6 Hornets 32-21 1-1 1H,1A T 5-3 L 20-13 W No<B> 28</B> (-2) 7 Mavericks 32-22 2-1 1A W 4-5 W 17-15 W Yes<B> 27</B> (-2) 8 Jazz 32-23 2-0 2A W N/A X 22-11 W Yes<B> 26</B> (-1) 9 Suns 31-23 1-0 1H,1A W N/A X 19-13 W Yes<B> 26</B> (-1) 10 Warriors 19-36 3-0 1A W N/A X 10-21 W Yes*<B> 12</B> (-1) 11 Wolves 18-36 2-0 1H,1A W N/A X 9-23 W Yes<B> 13</B> (-2) 12 Grizzlies 15-40 1-2 1H L 4-9 W 9-27 W No<B> 9</B> (-2) 13 Clippers 13-42 2-1 1H W N/A X 8-27 W Yes<B> 7</B> (-1) 14 OKC Thieves 13-42 3-0 None W N/A X 8-25 W Yes*<B> 6</B> (-2) 15 Kings 12-44 2-0 1A W N/A X 12-22 W Yes<B> 5</B> (-1) * Indicates the Tie Break is final <B>Clinched the #15 seed</B> Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>Feburary 20</B>. Who needs McGrady and Alston? The Rockets started off their post Trade Deadline schedule with a nice come from behind win over the Mavericks, despite missing Carl Landry. Aaron Brooks looked pretty good in his first games since the Rockets handed him the starting gig. The win drops all Magic Numbers 1. It also drops the Mavs an extra point. The victory was a well-needed W for our division record, and it means we’re in the driver’s seat for the tie break over the Mavs. A win in Dallas on April 15 would give us the tie break and drop the Dallas Magic Number by 3 in one fell swoop. We’re not the only team with injuries right now. The Al Jefferson-less Wolves continue their freefall and get beat by the Danny Granger-less Pacers. The Wolves lose another Magic Number. No Amar’e, no problem. Phoenix spanked the Thieves with a third straight game of Seven Seconds or Less. I’m curious what happens when Phoenix plays a real team, and Shaq has to play a back-to-back. The Thieves’ Magic Number drops an additional point. The Nuggets blew a game to Chicago. They need to put some distance between them and the Spurs now while Ginobili is out, and losing to Eastern Conference also-rans is not the way to do that. Especially when the Bulls only dress 7 players. Denver loses an additional Magic Number. The Kings apparently defeated the Grizzlies in the “if the Kings beat the Grizzlies in a forest and nobody watched, did it really happen?” game of the night. Yes, neither team has a shot to make the playoffs, but I’m going to keep noting every Western Conference team until they are officially eliminated for the race. Both of these teams should hit that benchmark soon. The Blazers didn’t have Greg Oden again, but they didn’t need him in their victory the Hawks. Portland is only 2.5 games back on Denver for the Northwest division lead. The Lakers won an overtime thriller over the Hornets. New Orleans drops an additional point. On tap for Saturday: Spurs at Wizards, Kings at Mavericks, Hornets at Jazz, Thieves at Warriors
I think you should be commissioned by the Rockets to do this every year Thanks for this, I look for this thread after each game. [Chuck Norris style] Darly Morey figured out the Magic number for the Rockets....last offseason [/Chuck Norris style]
