Magic Number for the Rockets against West Playoff Contenders

Disclaimer: The Rockets are much better WITH Yao. However, it definitely doesn't hurt us as badly in a Utah series. Yao doesn't have to chase Okur around the perimeter and guard Boozer. I think Scola, Landry, and Hayes with a bit of Deke thrown in can match up quite well with the Jazz.

My dream matchup in the first round goes as follows: Nuggets, Mavs (sans Dirk), Jazz.

 

<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp; Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
<B>Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>
Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;26-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;49-22&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;30-13&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;47-21&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;31-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;14</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-25&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;27-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;10</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;47-23&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;25-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-2)
Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;47-23&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;25-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-26&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;26-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;43-27&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;23-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-2)
Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;43-28&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;24-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;37-34&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;23-20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;Extinguished</B>
Kings&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;31-39&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;14-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Deposed</B>

* Indicates that the Tie Break is final and cannot be changed due to the outcomes of upcoming games. The Magic Numbers are calculated on an assumption that we will lose the Tie Break unless it's already been clinched. If we clinch a Tie Break, that will drop the Magic Number 1 point.

<B>Clinched #9 Seed</B>

Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>March 24</B>.

Great to see the Rockets take care of the Kings tonight. Another winning streak brewing? Their win drops all Magic Numbers 1.

The Rockets win combined with the Blazers loss means they have officially clinched the #9 seed over the Portland. Next up: Nuggets\Warriors\Mavericks, the #8 seed, and a playoff berth.

The Suns lost to the Pistons, and the Warriors lost to the Lakers in an overtime thriller. Suns and Warriors Magic Numbers drop an additional point.

The Nuggets beat the Grizzlies, and the Lakers took the aforementioned second game of their home and home with the Warriors.

On tap for Tuesday: Hornets at Pacers, Spurs at Magic, Clippers at Mavs, Bobcats at Jazz

 

True, the Magic Numbers are guaranteed to drop. Also in the next 5 games, the Mavs play the Warriors twice, and the Mavs play the Nuggets, which would bring the Mavs or another of the teams to 6 (or lower). I'm just going to let it play out though. That's the nice thing about the Western Conference: Teams beat each other up almost every day.

Agreed. We don't have the Tie Breaker clinched over these teams, but we technically have it right now (same with Spurs and Jazz). I calculate the Magic Number as if we will lose the Tie Breaker (even if it says Yes), and then if we do clinch it, I drop the Magic Number an additional point (if we beat the Spurs Sunday, their Magic Number drops 3, etc.). The teams that have a * by their Overall Tie Break means it will not change, no matter the result of later games.

I like to see where the Overall Tie Break is on a daily basis because it can change as we play each of the Contenders and as Conference Records go up and down. It's all part of the horse race that is the 2008 Western Conference Playoff Race.

Thanks again to COMPAQ CENTER for helping me finetune the Magic Numbers and Tie Break situation back at the beginning of the thread.

 

We also control our destiny against the Spurs and Suns because we play them again.

Beating the Spurs would drop their Magic Number 3 (1 for the Rocket win, 1 for the Spurs loss, and 1 for clinching the Tie Break over them).

Same goes for the Suns. A win over them on April 11 drops them 2 (1 for the Rockets win and 1 for the Suns loss). That might also give us the Tie Breaker (we could split the Head to Head 2-2, but we have a 3 game lead in the loss column of the Conference Record), which would drop the Suns Number another point. Hopefully we've clinched a better Conference Record with the Suns by the time we play again.

Winning out would guarantee us the #3 Seed, no matter what the rest of the Western Conference did.

 

I'm going to keep them on the list. I like seeing the body count behind us. I contemplated putting Sonics, Grizzlies, Wolves, and Clippers on the initial list.

It's good to remember that we have put away some teams even though we have 8 in front of us.

 

Great observation. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out (Back to Backs in bold):
<B>Mar 25 @Pacers (WIN)
Mar 26 @ Cavs</B>
Mar 28 @Celtics
Mar 30 @Raptors
<B>Apr 1 @Magic
Apr 2 @Heat</B>
Apr 4 Knicks
Apr 6 Warriors
<B>Apr 8 Jazz
Apr 9 @Wolves
Apr 11 @Lakers
Apr 12 @Kings
Apr 15 Clippers
Apr 16 @Mavs</B>

They get some dog teams in the back half of 3 of their Back to Backs (Heat, Wolves, Kings), but the Cavs and Mavs (who might be playing to save their Playoff lives) are definitely going to be tough for them.

The other thing about that schedule is they get no more than one day off in a row until just before their last two games, which are Back to Back. Hopefully they get tired during this final run and drop a few extra games.