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Magic Number for the Rockets against West Playoff Contenders

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by ScriboErgoSum, Mar 12, 2008.

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  1. ibm

    ibm Member

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    all this mess is created by the stupid division title rule. unlike baseball, you don't play your division teams more times, so what is a division title good for other than causing confusion and making the seeding look silly?

    ideally, i'd like to see the whole schedule/matchup and seeding totally re-done, so that we can see the true best 16 teams in the post-season. but that's another topic.

    at the minimum, a division winner should only be guaranteed a p/o spot but not a top 4 spot (which doesn't make any sense).
     
    #481 ibm, Apr 15, 2008
  2. stipendlax

    stipendlax Member

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    Wow... the NBA has to do something about the format.

    First, let's pick the winners of the remainding games:

    Tonight -
    Hornets over Clips
    Lakers over Kings

    Tomorrow -
    Dallas over NO (Dallas is at home I believe. I think they take this one)
    Houston over Clips
    SA over Utah
    Phoenix over Portland
    Denver over Memphis

    Now, if this particular scenario plays out, these are the teams' following records:

    Lakers 57-25
    Hornets 56-26
    Spurs 56-26
    Jazz 54-28
    Rockets 55-27
    Phoenix 55-27
    Dallas 51-31
    Denver 50-32

    Okay, that being said, the following rules apply:

    Division winners get seeds 1-4. The team with the next best record gets that remaining spot. In case of a tie, teams will go to the following tie breaker: head to head, division record, conference record, etc.

    Now, the Lakers, in this scenario will have top seed.

    1. Lakers 57-25

    Since the Spurs and Hornets end the season with the same record, the teams will apply the tie breaking rules.

    Season series was split 2-2. Division record is next applied.

    If the scenario I have portrayed plays out, then both teams end up with the same division record (10-6) as well (crazy, I know!!).

    Conference record follows:

    Hornets 34-18
    Spurs 33-19

    Hornets win the tie breaker with a better conference record than the Spurs. That being said, the following seeds happen:

    1. Lakers 57-25
    2. Hornets 56-26
    3. Spurs 56-26
    4. Jazz 54-28

    Jazz get automatic top 4 because they won their conference.

    Seeds 5-8 get a bit easier.

    Rockets 55-27
    Suns 55-27

    Now, since both teams are tied, we go to the head to head tie breaker. Rockets took that series, so they get 5th seed.

    5. Rockets 55-27
    6. Suns 55-27
    7. Dallas 51-31
    8. Denver 50-32

    Now, the Rockets have a better record than the number 4 Jazz, so they get home court advantage (same scenario as last year's).

    With this seeding, the following teams meet:

    1. Lakers vs 8. Denver
    2. Hornets vs 7. Dallas
    3. Spurs vs 6. Suns
    4. Jazz vs 5. Rockets (Rockets have home court)



    Okay, so am I right?? I always thought that's how it went...
     
    #482 stipendlax, Apr 15, 2008
  3. Kindger

    Kindger Member

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    Yes you are right, but too late to get a medal. ;)
     
    #483 Kindger, Apr 15, 2008
  4. stipendlax

    stipendlax Member

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    I'm like that guy that shows up to the party late without any beer.

    :(
     
    #484 stipendlax, Apr 15, 2008
  5. Robert

    Robert Member

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    So, do we frame this one as the most likely one to play out?

    I want something to compare to when all the games have been played tomorrow night. :D
     
    #485 Robert, Apr 15, 2008
  6. dafranchise0309

    dafranchise0309 Member

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    What if Utah and NO win?
     
    #486 dafranchise0309, Apr 15, 2008
  7. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Exactly. Like I said earlier. I hope this turns out to be a big controversy. Like some teams protest the interpretation of tie-breaking rules and seeding. That hopefully will wake them up and get rid of that stupid division title thing.
     
    #487 Easy, Apr 15, 2008
  8. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    <B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
    <B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>

    &nbsp;1&nbsp;&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;57-25&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;37-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<STRIKE>3</STRIKE></B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    &nbsp;2&nbsp;&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;56-25&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;34-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<STRIKE>4</STRIKE></B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    &nbsp;3&nbsp;&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;55-26&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;32-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<STRIKE>3</STRIKE></B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    &nbsp;4&nbsp;&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-27&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;33-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    &nbsp;5&nbsp;&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;32-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    &nbsp;6&nbsp;&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-27&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;29-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    &nbsp;7&nbsp;&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;50-31&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;32-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Bridled</B>
    &nbsp;8&nbsp;&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;49-32&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;30-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Dusted</B>

    * All Tie Breaks are final

    <B>Clinched #6 Seed</B>

    Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>April 14</B>.

    No change in the numbers today, but we finally have at least 2 slots set.

    The Lakers got the #1 seed tonight by beating the Sacramento Spoilers.

    The Hornets clinched the #2 seed and their first Southwest division title by destroying the Clippers.

    So at least the first 2 seed are set.

    We also know that Denver and Dallas will be #7 and #8. Dallas gets the #7 seed with a win over the Hornets (who now have nothing to play for) or a Denver loss to the visiting Grizzlies. It'll be interesting if Dallas goes all out to win (do they prefer Hornets over Lakers?) or if the Hornets make much of an effort.

    Seed 3-6 are completely up for grabs as has been much discussed. The Jazz will be no worse than #4, but nobody has clinched home court in the first round.

    If the Rockets win and the Suns win, we get home court. Personally I'm rooting for the Jazz to win so we draw the Suns.
     
    #488 ScriboErgoSum, Apr 16, 2008
  9. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    Mavericks beat the Hornets. So we know that Dallas is #7 and the Nuggets are #8.

    So Lakers-Nuggets and Hornets-Mavs in the first round.

    Now we just have to figure out #3 - #6. It's going to be a long night...
     
    #489 ScriboErgoSum, Apr 16, 2008
  10. Tigerknee

    Tigerknee Member

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    Man the playoffs are going to be great this year
     
    #490 Tigerknee, Apr 16, 2008
  11. Kindger

    Kindger Member

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    So Utah rather play us on the road than play the Suns at home? That shows a lot respect LOL
    Don't tell me Spurs are playing great tonight.
     
    #491 Kindger, Apr 16, 2008
  12. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    I really don't think Utah is tanking. That would be forfeiting home court to the Rockets, Spurs, and Suns. If Utah wants to have a deep run, they will likely face 2 of these teams. I can't see them giving up home court that willingly. Besides Jerry Sloan would never allow his players to do that.
     
    #492 ScriboErgoSum, Apr 16, 2008
  13. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    <B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
    <B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>

    &nbsp;1&nbsp;&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;57-25&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;37-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<STRIKE>2</STRIKE></B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    &nbsp;2&nbsp;&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;56-26&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;34-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<STRIKE>2</STRIKE></B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-2)
    &nbsp;3&nbsp;&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;56-26&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;33-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<STRIKE>2</STRIKE></B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    &nbsp;4&nbsp;&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-28&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;33-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Silenced</B>
    &nbsp;5&nbsp;&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;55-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;33-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    &nbsp;6&nbsp;&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;55-27&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;29-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Eclipsed</B>
    &nbsp;7&nbsp;&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;50-32&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;32-20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Bridled</B>
    &nbsp;8&nbsp;&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;50-32&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;31-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Dusted</B>

    * All Tie Breaks are final

    <B>We are the #5 Seed with home court</B>

    Here is the last batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>April 16</B>.

    The dust has settled, and the smoke has cleared. We finally know how the seeding shake out: the #5 seed, home court, and a rematch with the Jazz. I’m ready to exorcise some ghosts of playoffs past and relive some victories of the glory years. I believe!

    Great to see the Rockets dominate the Clippers tonight and pick up their 55th win of the season. It dropped all Magic Numbers by 1, which closed out the Suns.

    The Spurs got Manu back. That apparently made a difference as they blew out the Jazz. The loss drops the Utah Magic Number an additional point, which closes them out. That comes in handy seeing how we’ll be facing them in the next round.

    The Suns defeated the Blazers. Phoenix is the #6 seed and will face San Antonio. The Suns are 3-1 against San Antonio this season.

    The Mavericks beat the Hornets in a preview of their first round matchup. The win clinched the #7 seed for Dallas who will face the #2 Hornets in the playoffs. The New Orleans loss dropped their Magic Number an additional point.

    The Nuggets won their 50th victory of the season over the Grizzlies, but Denver finished a game behind Dallas, giving them the #8 seed. The Nuggets will face the #1 Lakers.

    We came so close to wrapping up the #1 seed, closing out all but 3 teams in the West. We were 1 game out of first in our division and only 2 out of the top spot. Those 3 teams (Hornets, Lakers, Spurs) have Numbers that are so low. I’m not going to lament the frustrating losses of this season, but I am going to take some comfort in how close we came this year. I think it’s a great foundation for next year.

    I’ve had a lot of fun putting the Numbers up and discussing the Playoff race with all of you. We took some fun detours into advanced seeding theory and learned some things about to decide tie breakers. I even got to flex my writing muscles a bit.

    I plan on starting a new thread for the 2008-2009 season and start all 14 teams at 83 (maybe 29 if Stern blows up the Playoff format this summer). If this season was any indication, next year should be just as crazy or even crazier with the addition of the Blazers to the mix. I plan on updating every 5-10 games to keep an overall perspective of where we are. I don’t think I could do this daily for an entire season, but I look forward to having another fun thread next year!
     
    #493 ScriboErgoSum, Apr 16, 2008
  14. IROC it

    IROC it Member

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    You're the man, Scribo!


    Very cool of you to keep us all advised and informed. :cool:

    You sir, are the consummate professional.
     
    #494 IROC it, Apr 16, 2008
  15. ibm

    ibm Member

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    you're crazy, man. and i wish i still had that kinda passion.

    this thread has been real fun thanks to you. :cool:
     
    #495 ibm, Apr 16, 2008
  16. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Scribo,

    Don't do a magic number thread from day 1...that would be pointless.....pick it up next Marchish.

    DD
     
    #496 DaDakota, Apr 16, 2008
  17. david_rocket

    david_rocket Member

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    Great anylisis Scribo, I liked a lot! :cool:
     
    #497 david_rocket, Apr 16, 2008
  18. LAYGO

    LAYGO Member

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    Thanks Scribo for the excellent work.

    You sir should be upgraded. I'll chip in on his behalf. If a few of us chip in a $1 or $5, he could then edit his posts! ;)
     
    #498 LAYGO, Apr 16, 2008
  19. blender

    blender Member

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    Thanks for a great thread, Sribo. Really enjoyed it.
     
    #499 blender, Apr 17, 2008
  20. ccjj

    ccjj Member

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    Agreed. Your thread will get burried if you start it from day 1. May be at least after ASG.
     
    #500 ccjj, Apr 17, 2008
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