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Magic Number for the Rockets against West Playoff Contenders

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by ScriboErgoSum, Mar 12, 2008.

  1. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Just shows you why this site is the best sports site on the internet, bar none. :D
     
  2. mw_mw

    mw_mw Member

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    i don't want to play the spurs 1st round... that would be suicide
     
  3. Kim

    Kim Member

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    Well, when I came up with the top 5 most likely scenarios, it looks like my top 2 turned out to the right so far. The Hornets win the SW and clinch a #2 seed at worst with a victory at home over the Clippers. I would bet $100 on the Hornets winning that game if I could...hell, I'd bet my life savings. The Lakers clinch #1 with a win over the Kings at home. Either way, Lakers and Hornets at #1 or #2 and Mavs and Nuggets at #7 or #8. Houston should beat the Clippers in Htown. Phoenix should beat the Blazers in Phoenix. Assuming those happen:

    The Rockets will be the #5 seed and playing Utah with the Rockets having Home Court IF the Spurs beat Utah.
    The Rockets will be the #6 seed and play the #3 seed Utah IF the Jazz beat the Spurs and the Jazz would have home court.
    Basically, the Rockets are playing the Jazz in round 1.

    Here are the 2 slim chance scenarios where the Rockets would play the Spurs in rd 1, and neither has the Rockets with Home Court Advantage.

    IF the Suns lose at home to the Blazers AND the Spurs lose to the Jazz, then the Spurs will be #4 w/ home court vs. Houston # 5.

    IF the Rockets lose to the Clippers AND the Suns beat the Blazers AND the Spurs beat the Jazz, then the Rockets would be #6 facing the Spurs at #3.
     
  4. kejohn

    kejohn Member

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    For those thinking that SAS will tank games. If SAS loses to UTA, then SAS drops to # 5 seed and plays #4 PHX, with PHX having HCA.
     
  5. count_dough-ku

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    Not if we beat the Clips. Then we finish ahead of Phoenix since we have the tiebreaker.
     
  6. Kim

    Kim Member

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    The next two days (Tuesday night games and Wednesday night games) will play out like this:

    Hornets clinch SW on Tuesday and celebrate at home with a win over the Clippers. One hour later, the Lakers clinch #1 at home with a win over the Kings...confetti drops in both arenas...Hornets might bust out the Champagne.

    Wednesday Night:
    Phoenix beats Portland and Denver beats the Grizz to close out the season for their respective teams.

    Dallas host New Orleans. If Dallas wins, then it'll be a Mavs Hornets 1st round. If New Orleans win, then it'll be a Mavs vs Lakers 1st rd and Hornets vs Nuggets 1st round.

    Spurs host Jazz. If Spurs win, Spurs will have homecourt vs Suns in rd 1 (and Rockets will have home court vs Jazz). If Spurs lose, Spurs will play Suns in round 1 with the Suns having home court.

    Tuesday is going to be a celebratory night in the NBA and Wednesday is going to see 2 really killer games.
     
  7. swhcgd

    swhcgd Member

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  8. txdonk

    txdonk Member

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    Man, I'm really confused with all the of tie-breakers. According to this Suns fan site, if PHX and Hou wins as they are favored, and Jazzholes beat SA, resulting in a 4-way tie at 55-27, Hou still gets HCA, over Phx! This is crazy, and I'm not sure if the calculation is correct. Anyway, check it out:

    Phoenix (55-27): vs Warriors, vs Portland
    Houston (55-27): at Utah, vs Clippers
    San Antonio (55-27): at Sacramento, vs Utah
    Utah (55-27): vs Houston, at San Antonio

    3. Utah (HCA)
    4. Phoenix
    5. Houston (HCA)
    6. San Antonio

    http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?t=110196&page=2

     
  9. mw_mw

    mw_mw Member

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    so we play Phoneix with HC?? wow this is hurting my head!
     
  10. IROC it

    IROC it Member

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    Where's Scribo?

    I need authoritative journalism!
     
  11. Kim

    Kim Member

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    Reread my scenario #1 in page 20 or also on this page where I quoted myself.

    If everyone is 55-27, then Phoenix will be #4 because:
    -Utah is guaranteed a top 4 spot along with Hornets and Lakers for winning their divisions.
    -Lakers will be #1 w/the best record and Hornets #2 w/2nd best record.
    -to get the last team in the top 4 spot, there is a 3-way tie between Suns, Rockets, and Spurs in terms of record. The tie break is best record among the three teams (Suns 5-3, Rockets 4-4, Spurs 3-5).
    -So Suns vault to top 4 status

    So you start over with your top 4 and bottom 4 and separate it.

    Lakers 1
    Hornets 2
    Jazz 3 (because Jazz has the 2-1 head to head tie break over Suns)
    Suns 4

    Then you go to the bottom 4 separately.

    Spurs 5 (over Rockets b/c Spurs have tie break...head to head is 2-2, but Spurs and Rocks in same division with Spurs better division record)
    Rockets 6
    Nuggets or Mavs 7
    Nuggets or Mavs 8

    So here's the deal:

    If you're a Suns fan, then you want to beat the Blazers and hope the Jazz win in San Antonio so that Suns will have home court over Spurs.

    If you're a Rockets fan, then you want to beat the Clippers and hope Spurs win vs Jazz so that Rockets will have home court over Jazz.

    99% it's going to be Rockets-Jazz and Spurs-Suns...home court is what is up in the air.
     
  12. Kim

    Kim Member

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    Who needs Scribo? I got this thing down dammit! :mad:

    :D

    I'm holding down the fort for ya Scribo but my authority is being questioned.
    [​IMG]
     
  13. txdonk

    txdonk Member

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    Sorry Kim, your post makes more sense. I got too excited at the prospect of Hou controlling their own destiny for HCA....*sigh*, if it were only that easy. :mad:

    At least SA has plenty of incentives to beat Utah, but they have been playing poorly lately. We shall see what happens.

     
  14. wireonfire

    wireonfire Member

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    From spurs board,

     
  15. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    Sorry for the delay. My wife cooked homemade pasta and carbonara. Got to repsect that before I can post.

    So how the hell does a 4 way tie break work if the Rockets, Spurs, Suns, and Jazz wind up tied?

    Let's remember our order of operations.
    1) Pick Division winners. That's the Jazz, Lakers, and Hornets. So take the Jazz out of that 4 team tie break.
    2) Pick the best team that's not a division winner. The Suns win the three team tie break with the Rockets, Suns, and Spurs. Suns are 5-3 (3-1 against Spurs, 2-2 against Rockets), Rockets are 4-4 (2-2 against Suns, 2-2 against Spurs), Spurs are 3-5 (2-2 against Rockets, 1-3 against Suns). Suns get a top 4 seed.
    3) Seed the 1-4 based on record. Hornets and Lakers are #1 and #2 (order to be determined still). The Jazz have the tie break on the Suns so Utah is #3 and Suns are #4.
    4) Seed 5-8. Rockets and Spurs are tied, but the Spurs own the two team tie break on the Rockets due to a better division record so Spurs are #5, Rockets are #6.
    5) Award home court based by record, deciding ties by 2 team tie break. That means we draw the Jazz, but we lose the tie break and don't get HCA. The Spurs draw the Suns but Phoenix has HCA.

    I am confident this is how it shakes out.

    HOWEVER. I exchanged several emails today with Ross Siler who wrote this and Ross said a NBA PR person emailed him and said it would be
    3) Jazz
    4) Suns
    5) Rockets
    6) Spurs

    I really think the NBA PR guy got it wrong. He used a 4 team tie break without looking at the top 4 seed rules. Even if you apply 4 team tie break rules regardless of rop 4 seeding rules, it would be Jazz #3 because they have the best cumulative record amongst the 4 teams. Then Suns are #4 because they have the best cumulative record amongst the 3 teams left. Then Spurs are #5 because once there are only 2 teams left in a three team tie break, you use 2 team tie break rules.

    I hope I am mistaken on that, because I'd much rather open at home against the Suns than on the road at Utah. I think I'm right unfortunately. I might just be the nation's foremost expert on tie break rules at this point.

    Please let me be wrong on that last statement. :rolleyes:
     
  16. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    I'd like to add that I think we'll see an official statement on this tomorrow. It seems the most likely outcome at this point, and the NBA surely will step in and lay out the seedings.

    Kim, you're spot on with your take on the seeding too.

    The one thing I hope we have all learned at this point is how to apply top 4 seed and tie break rules. We aim to educate in this thread!
     
  17. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Member
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    <B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
    <B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>

    &nbsp;1&nbsp;&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;56-25&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;36-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<STRIKE>3</STRIKE></B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    &nbsp;2&nbsp;&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;55-25&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;33-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<STRIKE>4</STRIKE></B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    &nbsp;3&nbsp;&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;55-26&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;32-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<STRIKE>3</STRIKE></B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    &nbsp;4&nbsp;&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-27&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;33-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    &nbsp;5&nbsp;&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;32-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    &nbsp;6&nbsp;&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-27&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;29-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    &nbsp;7&nbsp;&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;50-31&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;32-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Bridled</B>
    &nbsp;8&nbsp;&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;49-32&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;30-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Dusted</B>

    * All Tie Breaks are final


    <B>Clinched #6 Seed</B>

    Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>April 14</B>.

    So we've laid out the basic scenarios already. If we win and the Jazz lose, we get the #5 seed and open at home against the Jazz.

    If we win and the Jazz win, it's a 4 team tie break, which has been discussed above.

    The loss tonight also means it's impossible for us to catch the Lakers, Spurs, or Hornets.

    The Warrior loss eliminated Golden State, so the Nuggets are in. If the Nuggets win their last game and the Mavericks lose, Denver gets the #7 seed. If the Nuggets lose or the Mavs win, Dallas is #7.

    The Hornets clinch the division title with one more win.
     
  18. Kim

    Kim Member

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    I was doubting you (and me) for like 10 seconds, then verified some info in the other thread. It's all about order or operations. I'd love for the Rocket to be #5 and play Phoenix, but that just isn't possible.
     
  19. astros148

    astros148 Member

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    lol who doesnt wanan play the rockets?
     
  20. AggNRox

    AggNRox Member

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    if 4 teams tie at 55-27, total head to head winning % among these 4 teams is the tiebreaker. 4 teams will be in the order of the highest %, the 2nd highest %, the 3rd highest %, then the last one. there is no such thing to recalculate % among remaining teams after getting the first team out.

    in case 4 teams tie at 55-27, they are in the order of jazz, suns, rox, and spurs.

    I believe HCA is decided btw two playoff match-up teams. in this case, rox has HCA over suns coz rox has better conference record.
     

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